Your Comprehensive 2015 Cavs Free Agency Guide

Well, Jensen Karp blew up Twitter last night when he tweeted a get-together pic between KLove and the King (pic edited). I guess that’s as good a way as any to kick off the madness that will be the 2015 NBA free agency period. So, release the NBA suits! In less than 48 hours, teams can start recruiting free agents (12 AM EST, July 1st). Of course, any free agency talk for Cleveland starts with the fact that LeBron James has officially opted out of his contract and is now a free agent. Of course, everyone expects the King to re-sign with the Cavs, and the official line is that he is taking a “wait and see” approach with regards to the Cavs and free agency. Windy reports.

Last week, Cavs general manager David Griffin said the team had been in regular contact with James since the end of the Finals and that he was “very engaged” in discussions about the roster. Sources told ESPN, however, it is James’ intention to stay somewhat removed from the Cavs’ free agency until other free agents are handled.

Translation? James’ cap hold of $21.6 million is less than the free agent contract he will sign later this summer, of about $23 million dollars. But, for maximum flexibility, it may help the Cavs to “officially” sign him last of all. In light of this, let’s take a look at the Cavs options in free agency, both with their own free agents, and prospective ones.

Part I: The Cavs’ Own Free Agents

Kevin Love, on the other hand, presents a different challenge. Windy reported (link above), and Kevin has been saying all year, that he’s most probably re-signing with the Cavs.

Love may speak to other teams next week, but there is a growing belief across the league that he will back up statements made throughout the season and return to the Cavs. Several sources close to Love have indicated he is likely to stay in Cleveland. During this past season, at times Love consulted with teammates on whether he should lock into a long-term deal this summer or look for a shorter deal.

I’ve been saying all year that Kevin Love is coming back. The question is whether he signs a shorter deal, or takes the safe route and accepts the Cavs’ likely five-year $110 million dollar offer. But, the Cavs have to cover their bases. If Love leaves, there’s a very thin window that the Cavs have to perform a sign-and-trade. Without Kevin Love, the Cavs cap holds and contracts add up to just under $85 million. With the tax apron at just about $85 million, the Cavs can hardly bring any salary back without renouncing their cap hold on at least one additional player. The NBA CBA prohibits a team from taking back salaries in a sign-and-trade if the receiving team does not end up under the tax apron. The most likely player to be relinquished in this doomsday scenario? J.R. Smith, whose $6.4 million dollar hold could provide the Cavs the ability to bring back a contract in a Kevin Love sign-and-trade. But, in all likelihood, if the Cavs lose Kevin Love, they’ll be hard pressed to get anything for him if they sign-and-trade, except maybe draft picks. That’s not looking likely, though, given our cover tweet…

It’s obvious that the Cavs are going to have to wait until Kevin Love makes his choice before Cleveland can move on to their other free agent decisions. We mentioned J.R. Smith, who was an integral cog in the last playoff run. But, David Griffin has only said that J.R. will be back “if it’s the right situation.” The Cavs do have J.R.’s Bird Rights, which means they can exceed any salary restrictions when re-signing him. But, I imagine the Cavs have a very specific number in mind. That number probably does not exceed $8 million per year. Also, Earl III will be 30 when the season starts, which makes a two year dear preferable, and a three year deal the max the Cavs would go. Despite a lackluster finals, he did have a nice season. But now he’s looking for a pipe full of cash.

J.R. Smith looking for a 3 year deal starting around $8M per year according to a league source. #Cavs

— Joe Kotoch Real Estate (@luxuryagentchi) June 28, 2015

If Avery Bradley got 4/$32M and Klay got 4/$70M, then sure, JR Smith at 3/$24M market price isn't unreasonable.

— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) June 28, 2015

There’s no doubt that with every team, there comes a point where J.R.’s honeymoon period will end. That point probably came in 2014 for the Knicks when J.R. couldn’t stop untying players’ shoelaces. Of course, you could argue that J.R’s honeymoon ended when he turned into a pumpkin in the finals, and turned in some maddeningly inconsistent play. But, one look at J.R.’s career regular season versus playoff PER (13.3 versus 15.2) and TS% (54 versus 51) will tell you that Swish is a player who plays worse in the playoffs.

However, for those who say that the Cavs should “find someone else,” it’s hard to imagine who that someone could be. Shooters don’t grow on trees. And shooters that can guard three positions, put the ball on the floor, finish on the break, pass, and rebound really don’t grow on trees. With only minimum contract players, a $3.37 million mini-mid-level exception, and the possible returns from a Brendan Haywood trade to fill the void, the Cavs are going to have a hard enough time filling out their bench, even if they don’t lose J.R. Remember, the goal is to not have to play LeBron 44 minutes a night in next year’s playoffs. They just need to find J.R. a good sports shrink.

Iman Shumpert will probably command a similar per year salary, if not more, considering Iman ended up the starter. It’s hard not to imagine him getting a significant offer after the playoff run he had, and given his ability to guard and check most guards and wings, and even some of the league’s stretch power forwards. But, let’s not forget that Shumpert is a below-average offensive player, at best, with a career 49TS%. In fact, last year, his 46% mark from inside the arc mark was his career high. Aside from a 10% advantage in three-point shooting (which is not insignificant), and a better assist rate, Iman’s career numbers are very similar to those of Alonzo Gee. Of course, Iman’s game belies traditional box scores, and his 2.6 RPM last season ranked 11th in the league for shooting guards (as opposed to Gee’s -3.7). Considering that number includes Shump’s Knicks games, that’s impressive.

Shumpert does improve all his numbers in the playoffs, as his career playoff 51TS% indicates, and the quality of his defense cannot be overstated. His ability to play through pain in the finals was a key reason the Cavs were able to take the series to six games too. But, Iman Shumpert is yet another injury prone Cavalier, who has averaged only 60 games per season in his four year career. He is only 25, though, and perhaps he can improve his shooting, and keep the injury bug at bay in the future. If he was on any other team in the league, he probably would not command more than $6 million per season. But, given Gilbert’s pocketbook, Iman’s defense when the playoff spotlight was on, and the rest of the league’s desire to subtract from the Cavs, an $8 million dollar per year contract is probably the floor with Iman as well. Only his restricted free agency status, the perception that the Cavs will probably match most offers he gets, and the fact that he’s not represented by Klutch will keep that number from going higher.

Speaking of restricted free agents, the way the Cavs handle Tristan Thompson will be interesting. Do the Cavs come out and try to lock him up right away, or do they play the restricted free agency game, and wait for TT to receive an offer sheet before they match? I imagine that they’ll follow their M.O. and kiss the keister of Klutch sports as soon as Love is locked up. A five year, $75 million dollar offer for Canadian Dynamite probably gets it done. But, aside from a blockbuster sign-and-trade (which would only follow a catastrophic series of free agent defections), there’s no way the Cavs are letting Tristan walk — astronomical luxury tax be damned.

That leaves Matthew Dellavedova as the Cavs’ last restricted free agent. Delly is a strange case, as there really aren’t many players with his skill set or mentality in the league. When his minutes were limited, Delly hit at a respectable 41% from three in the regular season, improving on his rookie year shooting of 37%. Delly also has a very respectable 3:1 assist to turnover ratio, but his 16% turnover rate is poor given his only 12.6% usage. Delly passes a lot, and is probably guilty of over-passing. Teams certainly sat on his lob pass as the playoffs wore on, and conceded the runner. But, Dellavedova did have a down year from two, as his regular season two-point-percentage dropped from 46% to 31%. Teams are scouting him better, but there’s absolutely no reason that at 24, and entering his third NBA season, Delly can’t improve from inside the arc this year. Certainly, a less haphazard offense than the Cavs ran in the finals would help the Wombat. Matt’s defense still remains great at times, and he plays the scouting report as well as anyone in the league. In addition, his -.86 is a solid RPM (top third) for a guard, especially a bench one. He fits the role he plays on the Cavs (when everyone is healthy).

Being a restricted free agent, it begs the question, “who would give Delly much money?” I could certainly see Utah trying to pair Delly with his countryman, Joe Ingles. He would give them some defensive chops in the backcourt, with a rotation that features turnstiles: Trey Burke, Alec Burks, and Dante Exum. Phoenix could also use some depth in the back court, and they’d have the offensive depth to play Delly at either guard spot without much dropoff. Denver might take a flyer as well, especially if Ty Lawson is sent on his way. But what’s the max he could get? Do the Cavs pass if Delly gets an (admittedly eye-opening) $3 or $4 million dollar offer? Just on the strength of his game three performance, the respect of the King, and the fact that he can still certainly grow, I’d bet the Cavs match anything under $4 million. Is that nuts?

That brings us to the veteran free agents, James Jones and Kendrick Perkins. Perk may be back to fill out a roster, but likely, he won’t. James Jones had some key stretches for the Cavs in the playoffs, and will probably return for a veteran minimum. As much as the Cavs would like to give him a raise beyond that, they only have his early Bird Rights, which means he’d only be due for a 4.5% raise over his veteran minimum minimum salary — not enough for either side to make it worth the Cavs offering anything other than the veteran minimum, given the Cavs’ taxes. (The veteran minimum is $1.45 million, but only counts $.507 million against the salary cap, saving the Cavs likely $4 million in luxury taxes). Perhaps they’ll offer JFJ a two year deal if another team tries to compete for his services.

That takes care of the Cavs’ own free agents. When it comes to perspective free agents, the Cavs are very limited. The only way they can add players is through trading the Haywood contract (covered last week), trading their players currently under contract, the $3.37 million “taxpayer mid-level” exception, and/or free agents on minimum salaries.

Part II: The Mini-Midlevel

I’ve gone through quite a few options of players the Cavs should be chasing, and given the Cavs crowded front-court, I’ve mostly limited this discussion to guards and wings.

The Spurs’ restricted free agent, Cory Joseph, might fit the bill. Joseph is in his fourth year, but is only 23. His per 100 possession stats are impressive: 19 points, 6.7 assists, 6.8 boards and shooting splits of 50%/36%/73% last year. With a six-foot-three frame, Canadian born Joseph posted a .93 dRPM and a .87 RPM overall, certainly good for a bench guard. Joseph is a good defender with a high upside. Key to the Cavs’ success in getting him would be signing Joseph to an offer sheet at the beginning of the free agent signing period to tie up the Spurs’ ability to keep him, given all the maneuvers they’re looking to pull off. This might be a tall order. Unfortunately, the Mavs and Raptors fans are already throwing his name around as a possible backup point guard. My bet is that the only way the Cavs pull this off is through recruiting Joseph to take a little less money than he might otherwise, and if the Spurs let him walk. Joseph is a Klutch client, so there’s that.

Sergio Rodriguez is another intriguing option here. Six-foot-three Sergio played in the NBA from the age of 20-23, and then spent the last six years in Europe. He’s simply one of the best international point guards there is, and has anchored Spain’s national team for years. Blatt certainly has to be familiar with Sergio from his Euroleague days, and Rodriguez is a playmaker who could run the offense with and without LeBron and Kyrie. Sergio shot 42%/38%/83% last year in combined ACB and Euroleague production. His per 36 numbers are impressive: 16.3 points, 8.8 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 3.4 turnovers. Sergio’s buyout with Real Madrid is considered low (whatever that means), and the Cavs could contribute up to $625,000 towards that buyout without it affecting their cap space. The rest of the buyout would come out of Sergio’s salary. It is my belief that, at 29, Rodriguez represents the best opportunity for the Cavs to improve their backup point guard position with a player who is still in his prime. If the Cavs had signed Sergio last year, they would have beat the Warriors despite the losses to Kyrie and Kevin Love — through the power of Sergio’s beard alone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEP-PdnC2vM

Rodney Stuckey had possibly the best “bang for your buck” contract in the NBA last year, averaging 12.6 points, 3.5 boards, and 3.1 assists for the Pacers on a deal that only paid him $1.2 million. The six-foot-five inch Stuckey has the size and ability play both guard spots, and posted a respectable -.33 RPM and shooting splits of 42%/39%/82%. He stepped nicely into the role vacated by Lance Stephenson (video highlights here). But at 29, I’m betting that Stuckey is looking for a bigger payday than the Cavs mini-midlevel.

Six-foot-six Alexy Shved turned in a surprisingly competent performance for the Knicks at the end of the season last year, where in 26 minutes a night, he averaged 14.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, .9 steals, and 1.6 turnovers. The 26-year-old Shved’s career numbers in the NBA are pretty dismal, with 37%/31%/76% shooting splits in three seasons, but he upped those numbers in his final sixteen games with 40%/37%/78% for the Knicks. If the Cavs split up their mini-mid level, Shved might have some kismet with his former Russian coach, but it’s a pretty high risk proposition considering his relatively anemic NBA career so far.

Sonny Weems is another player who left the NBA and is looking to return. In one year at BC Zalgris, and three years at CSKA Moscow, Weems per 36 minutes stats were smoking: 17.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 3 turnovers. At six-foot-six, Weems’ NBA stats for Denver and and Toronto were solid, and as an elite athlete and a superior finisher, he was a blast to play on NBA 2K11. But he never got competent enough at the NBA three to be able to make more money in North America than he could overseas. Weems was also a fairly horrific plus/minus player when stateside. He posted a putrid -5.1 RAPM in his last year for Toronto. Weems is intriguing, but the Cavs ought to do their due diligence in the film room, and possibly have him work out from the NBA three-point line. It remains to be seen if he’s worth more than a minimum salary flyer.

The lost Herculoid, Wayne Ellington, would be a welcome addition to the Cavs. As a career backup, who could never got off the pine (outside of his Herculoid year), Ellington finally broke out with the Lakers last year and averaged 10 points a game, despite missing time at the beginning of the season to deal with the tragic death of his father. Ellington’s .53 dRAPM, combined with his solid shooting numbers (41%/37%/81%), and relatively young age (27) and mileage, make Wayne the exact kind of player that the Cavs claim to be looking for. I’ve always had a soft spot for him, and enjoyed the smiling energy with which he played. Hope he ends up here. It would take the full mini-mid-level.

Former North Carolina standout, Kendall Marshall tore his ACL last year, but before doing that posted very impressive improvement in his three seasons in the NBA. In his 31 games for Milwaukee, Marshall posted splits of 46%/39%/89%, to go with per100 possession stats of 14.4 points, 10.5 assists, and 2.6 steals. At 23, Marshall ought to be worth a very long look as a backup point guard, provided he is progressing in his rehab. An unrestricted free agent, Marshall represents the kind of facilitator David Griffin is seeking. He’s as good of a passer as college basketball has seen, and he’s already shown the ability to replicate that in the NBA.

Luc Mbah a Moute suffered as much as anyone on the Sixers when it came to the damage it did to his career. Completely out of place as a high usage player, Mbah a Moute’s forte is defense. Luc-Richard’s shooting splits last year were bad 41%/31%/59%. But he was shooting 3.5 more shots a game in Philly’s offense than he has in his career. A 1.8 DRPM player and a -3.1 ORPM player last year, on the Cavs, Luc would simply be a lock-down defender who would get the occasional open J or layup off the bench. He could return to is career splits of 46%/30%/67%. Able to guard most wings and forwards in the league, Mbah a Moute would be a nice luxury, but probably only if the Cavs split up their mini-mid-level.

Part III: Minimum Salary Players

28-year-old Jeremy Evans will get some love from analytics geeks, as he’ll be the lowest paid player averaging a PER over 20. Evans has been in and out of the rotation in his time in Utah, but he’s an absolutely ridiculous athlete: possibly the best in-game dunker in the NBA, Evans is a combo forward with no three point shot. He was hardly given a chance to play last year, and went 6-25 away from the rim, but .788 at the rim. In 2013-2014, with more playing time, he showed the ability to at least hit a jumper out to 16 feet (39-91). It’s a bit baffling why he’s never gotten a chance to do more, Evans is clearly a skinny-as-a-rail forward, who would be best on a team like the Cavs where he could play the three on defense, and the four on offense. His per minute numbers actually look close to Tristan’s. While Evans isn’t the rebounder Tristan is, TT isn’t the shot-blocker that Evans is. Evans might get a contract above the minimum. But the Cavs really ought to bring him in just to spell LeBron in units where he can cut off Kyrie and Kevin Love, and provide rebounding and defense. Evans skill level and offensive basketball ability have always been late developing. While the Cavs can’t afford to risk their midlevel on a player who’s too big of a risk to not contribute, the Cavs should take a flyer on Evans if they can get him on a minimum deal.

Mo Williams has said he’d love to come back to Cleveland, and I’m betting Cleveland has only the veteran minimum to offer him. Mo might be able to get more on the open market, but Cleveland would give him a shot to chase a ring with his old running mate. Williams had a smoking year last year, shooting 43%/38%/87%, averaging 13.4 points and five assists in just under 30 minutes a game and even posted a 52 point game. Now 32, Mo Gotti amazingly hasn’t improved as a defender, with a -1.7 DRPM, but 1.0 ORPM mostly makes up for it. Mo could anchor the second unit as a scorer, distributor, and nostalgia piece, but he and LeBron might have to mend some fences first. Who cares? John could revel in “The Kraken” again (see it in grainy video at about 1:30 below).

NBA Game Recap Bucks vs. Cavaliers From 31.03.2010 by Grdgez

Six-foot-three combo guard, Andrew Goudalek, left the NBA after a not-awful rookie season with the Lakers, that saw him post splits of 39%/37%/92%, and then he exploded onto the scene in Europe for Fenerbahce Ulker. Goudalek’s per 36 stats in Euro play this year? 22.2 points, 2.2 boards, and 2.1 assists, with 1.5 turnovers on 51%/46%/75% shooting. Goudalek is a pure scorer with serious range. At 26, he would definitely worth a camp invite, but would he take a minimum contract when he can certainly make more in Europe?

Look for Cleveland to chase Tayshaun Prince as 2016’s version of Shawn Marion. But unlike the artist formerly known as the Matrix, Prince can still shoot. Prince went 31-67 from three last year for a 46% clip (of course he was at 29% in 13-14). At 35, Prince’s defense is suspect, and he posted a fairly awful -4.4 RPM this year, but he’s one year removed from a not awful .35 dRPM and a -1.11 overall. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Cleveland brought him in as a ring chaser. Someone will.

Mike Dunleavy kept on plugging last year with Chicago. He’s turning into the Tim Duncan of wings: he gets by on size, fundamentals, and the lack of wasted motion in his game. Mike’s 34, but he can still shoot and got it done in the playoffs, with a stratospheric 68TS%. Dunleavy shot 44%/41%/81% in the regular season, and provided those numbers can keep going, he’d be worth every penny of the veteran minimum. But with an RPM that ranks eighth for small forwards in the NBA at 3.3, Dunleavy is probably worth more than that. Would he take the vet minimum here, or would the Cavs have to pay him more? Either way, he’d be a fantastic addition.

Dorrell Wright could only score from three last year, and he had a Delly/Boobie-esque 37.9%/38%/81% shooting split. But his RPM was a respectable .3. Dorrell is six-foot-seven, 29 years old, and can guard all wings. Cavs could have used him for 5-7 minutes a night in the finals. He might get more than the minimum, but if he does, it won’t be much more.

Rasual Butler is another shooter worth a look. Butler won a spot in training camp with the Wizards, and was a key bench player for them with a respectable 7.7 points per game on 42%/39%/82% shooting. He’s six-foot-seven, but he’s 37.

Landry Fields was perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Mike D’Antoni’s run in New York. After Mike pumped up his stats, Landry signed a $20 million dollar deal with Toronto and then played less and less in each consecutive year. But his RAPM numbers all hovered around zero, which isn’t bad. Landry was, at one time, a decent defender, and is still only 27. He is worth a training camp invite.

We all hate Jonas Jerebko because of his general douchiness in the Boston series, but the man can shoot. He shot 39% from three last year, and 42% the year before. Jonas is a decent rebounder too. He’s a solid bench player who can play the three or the four (but mostly the four on defense). If the Cavs thin out the power forward logjam, he would be worth a look. Probably tough to promise Jonas any playing time on this team.

Alonzo Gee: I know, I know. Despite his reputation as a defender in his first stint here, there was little actual evidence of it, statistically. He consistently had a stinky dRAPM most years, and as David Wood said on a podcast last week, “I’d rather watch Mike Miller than watch Alonzo Gee brick open corner threes, again.” But he is an athlete, plays hard, and can finish on the break. He certainly could have spelled Shump and J.R. a couple weeks ago. Also, Alonzo deserves this, right? He got shipped out before the ice cream truck pulled up. Don’t you want to see 3Gee service in the Q again?

Conclusions

The Cavs should spend lots of Citizen Sans’ money, and bring back all their free agents, then add more. Of all the free agency options, Sergio Rodriguez might be the best. If he wants to chase a ring in the States, the Cavs should make it happen. If he’s not down, Kendall Marshall might make a damned fine backup point guard. Add Jeremy Evans, Tayshaun Prince, Alonzo Gee, and maybe an insurance big, and I could be a happy camper. The Cavs can carry 17 players, right?