Ben McLemore: Historical Comparisons to the Possible #1 Picks
2013-05-27
Last Friday, Cavs:the Blog proposed wild trade scenarios for the number one pick. This week, I will look at the collegiate players in the running for that pick: Nerlens Noel, Otto Porter, Victor Oladipo, Ben McLemore, and Trey Burke. The method employed is to scour the draftexpress.com measurement database and the numbers available at statsheet.com. For each player, a list was culled of the most athletically and statistically similar players. Stats and traits selected are intended to closely mimic each guy’s size, athleticism, playing style, and performance. They include:
- Barefoot Height
- Wingspan
- Weight
- No-Step Vertical Leap
- Agility Drill Time
- Three-Quarter Court Sprint Speed
For performance, I gathered the following traits from each prospective #1 and a comparably aged season from the parallel youngster; i.e. if Player 2013 is 20 at draft time, while a comparison player was 21 at draft time, I used the stats from the comparison player’s previous season. Those are:
- Offensive Rating
- Usage
- Shooting percentage splits, in the form FG% / 3P% / FT%
- A split of where they scored from. If a player scored 50% of his points from inside the arc, 25% from three, and 25% at the foul line, his tally is 50 / 25 / 25.
- Defensive Rebounding Percentage
- Steal Percentage
- Block Percentage
- Assist Percentage
- Assist to Turnover Ratio
Using those as markers, the two most comparable players were determined in order to frame a reference for what the future may hold for the youngster. I started with the draftexpress.com measurements database, looking at players plus or minus 1” from each indivdiual’s barefoot height.
Each day this week, I will present the list for one of those players, before on Friday, announcing my preference for the Cavs on draft day. While certainly not perfect, it is instructive to see how similar performers progressed through their NBA careers. Let’s start with Ben McLemore, the 20-year old freshman Kansas shooting guard. His line is:
McLemore – 6’ 3.5” barefoot height, 6’ 7.75” wingspan, 189 lbs, 32.5” no-step vert, 11.87 agility, 3.27 sprint. Age 20.4 at draft time. 119 orating on 22 usage. Percentage = 50 / 42 / 87. Location = 42 / 37 / 20. Dreb% = 12.3. Stl% = 1.8, Blk% = 2.2, Ast% = 12.5. A:TO Ratio = 0.9.
An explosive dunker with a sweet shooting stroke, he never grabbed the part of “superstar”, instead settling into a mid-usage role on the Jayhawks. HIs defensive impacts were notable, and his shooting percentages excellent.
In looking at McLemore, the two closest comparisons derived are:
Player A – 6’ 2.75” barefoot, 6’ 10.75” wingspan, 201 lbs, 32.5” no-step, 10.39 agility, 3.11 sprint. 20.8 at draft time. 120 orating on 24 usage. 49 / 42 / 72. 42 / 40 / 17. dreb% = 8.5, stl% = 2.6, blk% = 2.6, ast% = 18.7. A:TO ratio = 1.4.
Player B – 6’ 4.25” barefoot, 202 lbs, 6’ 6.5” wingspan, 31.5” no-step, 11.14 agility, 3.20 sprint. Age 21.7 at draft time (season used here is the season when he was age 20.7 at draft time). 121 orating on 21 usage. 47 / 40 / 83. 49 / 36 / 15. dreb% = 11.2, stl% = 1.9, blk% = 0.5, ast% = 10.7. A:TO Ratio = 1.2.
Player A was probably the best comparison. Although slightly longer and definitely quicker, both players displayed excellent athleticism and strong offensive efficiency while using just under one-quarter of their team’s possessions. Both guys made nearly half their field goals, and an identical 42% of their threes, while scoring approximately 40% of their points both inside and outside the arc. McLemore rebounded better, but the comparison proved slightly more disruptive otherwise on defense. Player A also distributed the ball more frequently.
I chose Player B as the second best comparison. He is similarly sized, and again slightly quicker than McLemore, but also less explosive. Both were very efficient shooters, using 21 – 22% of their team’s possessions, and scoring 36 – 37% of their points from deep. The players rebounded and collected steals at similar rates, but McLemore utilized his superior leaping to block more shots. For passing skills, they rated very comparatively.
Player A is Rashad McCants, the 14th pick in the 2005 draft. Player B is Wayne Ellington, the 29th pick in the 2009 draft. Without knowing who they were , if I just looked at the age, measurements, and stats for McCants versus McLemore…I would pick McCants. Of course, he was also a head-case. While Ellington’s measurements and stats are simlar, he falls right below McLemore across the board.
What does it all mean? Do I think McLemore will be better than Ellington and McCants? Yes. Do I think McLemore will provide great value as a top-three pick? No. My inclination is that he is a very good complimentary player in the NBA.
Ok, one final guy…Player C is 6’ 3.25” barefoot, 6’ 9.25” wingspan, 213 lbs, 33” no-step, 10.69 agility, 3.25 sprint. 21.2 at draft time. 122 orating on 23 usage. 60 / 44 / 75. 62 / 18 / 20. dreb% = 13.9. stl% = 4.5. blk% = 2.8. ast% = 15.1. A:TO ratio = 0.9.
These two players are similar in length, but Player C packs on 25 extra pounds while leaping as well as McLemore and maintaining better quickness. He played offense more efficiently, while using a slightly higher amount of his team’s possessions. On defense he was a terror, collecting steals on 150% more possessions than McLemore. He was nine months older though, so McLemore has some time to catch up. Do I think he does? No.
Player C is Victor Oladipo. Let’s talk about him tomorrow.
I would make a contract offer of $10 million a year for Pek. Someone will probably offer more. Ideally Minnesota matches it and the season doesn’t go well for them and they trade Love at the All-Star break. Use restricted free agency as a weapon.
Ryan – if you’re going to take another SG, you’re better off taking Olapido IMO. He basically provides a Tony Allen/Thabo Sefalosha value to a team. I wouldn’t want Waiters to come off the bench, but if he had to go to the bench to play, I’d rather have a defensive specialist in front of him. Also, if you are going to have a team that has Thompson, Varejao, Zeller and Adams as your core rotation at bigs…you could move either Zeller or Varejao to he backup PF spot. Pairing Zeller with Adams in a bench role should provide a… Read more »
Ben F – haha yeah was not really thinking about age with those centers. If all three were on the board I guess it would be a toss up between Adams and Olynyk. Really like Adams defensive potential and apparently he showed off a jump shot at the combine. At some point I think we need some post scoring though which is why I like Olynyk and was interested in Pekovic. But yeah, I would probably go with Adams. We would end up with a group of players that looked like this: PG: Irving, Livingston SG: Waiters, Oladipo (Mclemore?), Ellington… Read more »
Ryan – I’m a huge fan of Adams…haven’t done enough research on Dieng/Olynyk to decide…though I think I saw that Dieng was 23. Guess he’d be OK for late 1st draft pick…but if I had to chose between him and a younger center…I’ll almost always go with youth.
Then again, the expectations for the type of player you’re getting at #19 shouldn’t be high anyways…so I guess there is that. (ADHD for the win!) Not a fan of Pekovic. He’s a decent offensive player, but he really wont’ help us defensively…and we really need more help on our interior.
Ben F – I would probably just take best center available at 19 in the Adams/Dieng/Olynyk mold. Olynyk especially has a nice skill set that would mesh well with Tristian. Another option would be to try and sign Pekovic from Minnesota. Throw a reasonable contract at Pekovic that doesn’t ruin our cap flexibility and the worst thing that can happen is Minnesota matches. Best case we have our center of the future. Alex Len could be a possibility at 2, but that seems like a reach to me and I’d rather take Best Player Available.
Corey – I think I’d be willing to give up on TT for a Noel/Len combination. Holy crap does that just sound tantalizing.
Ryan – the only problem with getting Harkless is who do we draft to solve our 5? Do we take a flyer on Alex Len (something I’m not against?) It’s actually not a bad scenario…but I think that Orlando would rather keep their assets and draft Trey Burke. But yeah, not a bad idea.
Gobert is another Sene. I care more about a centers athleticism than I do about his height and reach…. The mindset of what a 4 and a 5 need to be expired a few years ago. There are two prerequisites for your frontcourt: between the two of them you need a guy who can stretch the d with the pick and pop and a guy who can defend the paint. If a player can do both he is worth a max contract. If a player can do neither you’ll regret giving him more than $6 million a year (JJ Hickson).… Read more »
Alright so I’ve decided to role-play a little. I’m Chris Grant. I have 4 goals entering this next season: 1. Build a team that can compete for the play-offs this year and beyond, 2. Add veteran mentors, 3. Add talent via draft, and 4. Don’t screw up the cap space for 2014. Task 1: Resign Players/Sign FA’s I extend the 3.1 mil qualifying offer to Ellington, I hope Speights doesn’t pick up his PO. As far as free agency I target Chase Budinger and Brandan Wright for no more than 2 mil/year (more than double what both currently make), probably… Read more »
Completely off topic, but what about this trade scenario. If the Magic really like Nerlens what about trading down to #2 and snagging Moe Harkless? The kid seemed to show some promise late in the season and could be our future small forward. With the #2 pick we take whoever Chris Grant and Co. like most between Bennett/Mclemore/Oladipo.
Look at Xavier Henry’s stats. Look at his usage. Look at his athletic stats. They are all almost identical to mclemores. They even played in the same system at the same school for the same coach.
sAs96,
Xavier Henry is a good match. Athletically, he is a bit different (longer, faster, doesn’t jump as high), but for the stats I was looking out, he is one as good as Ellington and McCants. Obviously this is not helping McLemore’s case.
I was surprised to see that Xavier Henry is less than one year older than McLemore.
On another note, I thought it might be interesting how all the posters here would rank the top five players in the order that they would pick them. I’m not quite sure yet. I’ll give my list later.
Noel is freakishly athletic, and an incredibly instinctive as a defender – particularly as a shot blocker. He’s also a hard worker. When you add instincts to athleticism it’s rare you’ll find a bust. Thabeet had neither and except for the tall, thin #1 pick part, I don’t see a comparison. And we don’t know where Noel will end up offensively. I remember watching high school kids grow to 6’9″ to 6’11” and there’s no way their basketball skills are there when one grows that fast. They’re just plain gawky. Noel is one year removed from that age. His athleticism,… Read more »
J Hill – Noel played at 220. I wouldn’t be overly concerned about his weight. And for all that Gobert does weight more…his athletic numbers at the combine leave a LOT to be desired. If anyone at the combine reminds me of Hasheem Thabeet…Gobert is the guy.
This is going to be a great series. Good fodder for discussion. Looking forward to the rest.
Another hit against him, Rudy Gobert who might as well be a human twig man has 30 pounds on Noel.
Cory, Noel isn’t a 4, he doesn’t have ANY of the requisite skillsets in order to play that position. Plus, I’m still in the camp that TT has a WAY higher ceiling than most people think. I think that you have to play the odds a bit smarter when you are this deep into the rebuild. I mean just play the odds of who is more likely to fail or live up to expectations, I’d say out of the potential top 5 picks, Noel has the highest chance to fail. I feel like this is one of those drafts where… Read more »
@ gordon
I like Len too. I kind of accepted that the Cavs would fall to 4th or 5th in the draft and Len would be the pick. A Len and Noel frontline would give them a dangerous post presence. Noel’s lack of girth wouldn’t be as big of a deal at the 4.
Totally agree. Marion has been my favorite realistic SF addition for this team for months. Gives them veteran savvy, rebounding and a decent 3 point threat. Even at this point in his career Marion would be a drastic upgrade over Gee and would contribute right away on the wing unlike Porter. I want to see more from Saric and Karasev, but we might have all the video we’re going to get on them. The talent at 13 probably isn’t drastically better than that at 19, but Grant would have his pick of the Eurostashes. Let them cook for a few… Read more »
I like this piece. I read a similar piece of McLemore about a month ago and the most comparable players were all guys who barely broke rotations for good teams. I think McLemore’s comparison to Ray Allen, although completely unwarranted, has increased his draft stock. I do not want McLemore on this team – not as a top 5 pick. Touching on the Marion rumor – I think Cleveland would absolutely pull the trigger on that trade. I think they would give up both second rounders and possible a future second rounder for Marion and the Dallas first rounder. There’s… Read more »
I can’t imagine why the Cavs would decline that trade. Marion (with his expiring contract), Andy V (with his team friendly and potentially expiring contract) should both be valuable trade assets. Adding in another lottery pick should allow us to draft a SF of the future while using Marion in our starting lineup adds instant defense to our wing.
A Euro-stash of Saric or Karasev (my personal favorite) should be available at 13.
Bob Finnan brought up the potential Shawn Marion and the 13th pick for 19, 31 and 33 saying the Cavs would be expected to decline the trade. I get that they’d like to maintain their flexibility for a big fish deal, but that offer should still give the Cavs around $10 million in cap room to work with if a Harden-like trade appears before the trade deadline. Marion had a PER of 18 last year and even at 34 would be a massive improvement over Gee. It’s still kind of murky what could be available at 13.
Good story, Kevin. Any of the top five (Oladipo, Noel, Porter, McLemore, and Bennett) would be nice to have. The Cavs may not pick the guy each blogger here wants – but we’ll be getting some piece of the puzzle. The important thing is that the completed puzzle can win a championship. @Ben F is right about the Noel / Garnett. They are completely different “types” of players (offense vs. defense). The comparison lies in body types and movement skills. The once skinny Garnett now weights 253. As athletic and nimble as Garnett has been – Noel may be more… Read more »
Thanks Ben. Admittedly, the numbers I posted don’t go into a ton of detail. I just wanted to show the difference between Noel and Thabeet and to post Drummond’s numbers because they’re interesting. He wasn’t a sure thing coming out of UConn.
@Venus – just realized this. First you say that Noel compares to Nazr Mohammed and Hasheem Thabeet. Then you say it’s more like Garnett (without the offense.) That’s a wide range of defensive skillsets involved there. Mohammed was a strong man-post guy. Thabeet was supposed to be a rim protecting shot blocker. Garnett was never any of that.
@Jonathan – Drummonds had (if I remember right) a questionable motor…but was an athletic beast too. Nerlens trumped his numbers despite not getting to Kentucky until August. He was originally supposed to be a part of Andrew Wiggins draft class. He reclassified (and I assume did summer school to get the final credits necessary) instead of going through a regular spring/summer offseason like most Freshman get.
He made efficiency strides from his first 12 games to his last 12 games. I can give you the breakdown if you’d like.
J Hill – his medical history will be revealed, that won’t be an issue. He also has the best sports medicine surgeon (Dr. Andrews) in the US doing his rehab. He moved to Alabama to be under even more care and is well ahead of schedule. @Venus (since my comment keeps getting swallowed) Garnett was an all-around prodigy that played SF when he joined the league. He was never expected to be a rim protector the way that Noel is. Other than size, they don’t compare at all. His ACL injury is not a big deal. Al Harrington, David West,… Read more »
I don’t worry about Nerlen’s lack of offense as much as I do his small frame and injury history. http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2013/2/20/4007340/nerlens-noel-injury-kentucky I say only draft him if they let us X-ray his knee and everything checks out. But I’m still in the anti-Noel camp just based on the fact that most good center’s these days do not play at a high level for the team that drafted them.
Jonathan – Drummonds numbers show a guy who is even more raw on offense…and he was noted for questionable character concerns (though I think it was more motivation as opposed to being a headcase.) Drummonds was also a spectacular athlete for a guy his size. The other thing to consider when discussing how raw Noel is…he didn’t get to Kentucky until August, right before the season started. He was initially slated to be a part of Andrew Wiggins collegiate class. So, instead of running spring/summer drills with his teammates, he was (likely) doing schoolwork to finish up his high school… Read more »
@ Ben Werth If Oladipo were an inch or two taller to consistently matchup with NBA small forwards, he would be perfect for this team. As it is, I think Grant should seriously consider him. Especially if they trade back with Washington. @ Ben F, Jonathan At best, Noel becomes Kevin Garnett without even a fraction of KG’s offensive ability. His shooting form is uglier than anything MKG has shown. If Noel didn’t have recurring knee problems, I would still be fine with that pick. Before his most recent knee injury, I was leading the Noel bandwagon. Now I’m scared… Read more »
The following is copy and pasted from my comment on the last article when someone else made the Noel/Thabeet comparision. Yes, they’re both tall, skinny shot-blockers, but the comparison ends there. I understand concerns about Noel’s injuries, but to compare him to Thabeet is silly: Noel’s 1st (and only) year: 31.9 min, .590 FG%, .521% FT%, 10.5 PTS, 9.5 REB, 1.6 AST, 4.4 BLK, 2.1 STL Thabeet’s 1st year: 24.6 min, .554 FG%, .513 FT%, 6.2 PTS, 6.4 REB, .4 AST, 3.2 BLK, .2 STL Thabeet’s 3rd year: 31.8 min, .640 FG%, .627 FT%, 13.6 PTS, 10.6 REB, .5 AST,… Read more »
Makes sense. Nice job.
Venus –
Except that Nazr Mohammed and Hasheem Thabeet weren’t nearly as athletic as Nerlens Noel.
As for why Nerlens Noel lack of offensive game isn’t as important as MKG’s, MKG is basically (at best) taking one player out of the game. Nerlens (at best) can impact the entire defense (all 5 players on the court.)
I’m not sure why anyone would even begin to consider McLemore for the number 1. Or for that matter, Porter. Neither guy has an elite skill that will translate without question to the next level. Clearly, we can’t predict with 100 percent accuracy which of these guys will pan out. But we can be reasonable sure about certain skill-sets. Noel has elite defensive and more specifically, shot-blocking ability. Kyrie had handle that placed him above similar players. In general, one can name an elite skill/talent for number ones. For that reason, I would consider Oladipo after Noel as the best… Read more »
Oh, and this trade rumor with Dallas: 19, 31 and 33 for Marion and the 13th pick? I would do that trade for sure…could be a very good player available at 13.
Let me do the Noel comps for you:
Nazr Mohammed and Hasheem Thabeet, with less offensive game. Next!
And please, don’t say his total lack of offense doesn’t matter and then tell me that MKG’s lack of offense is a serious problem. Noel is basically a PF with no offensive ability and we don’t need to draft anymore of those.
Also, great piece! Looking forward to the others.
McCants is talented and might’ve been halfway decent if not a headcase. Definitely not worth a top pick though.
I like McLemore a lot but this is a good article.
Just out of curiosity, what other players were comparable? I’m hoping there were some close matches that turned out better than Ellington. If not, you may have just convinced me out of wanting him.
I guess what i mean is did you write this article objectively or are you trying to prove a point?
John,
McCants and Ellington were objectively (in my mind, at least) the two best comparisons. I am trying to not impart bias, but to some extent, that is impossible.
Really, the list I started from wasn’t that glorious. Marcus Thornton, Austin Rivers, etc. The problem is, at least as it hurts McLemore, is that shooting guard has been the worst position in the league over the last twelve drafts.
Wade and Harden were extremely high usage players in college. Brandon Roy was taller and rarely shot the three…to name a couple of the most successful SG’s to come from those drafts.
LOVE this piece! I’ve been arguing against picking McLemore as the #1 for a while now. This just seems to solidify it for me. He’s not worth it to the Cavs. Drafting him does nothing to fix the holes at 3 and 5. Drafting him does nothing for our atrocious interior defense. Drafting him would be a luxury…and it’s one we almost have anyways (with Ellington.)