Rudy Can’t Fail
2013-06-02
How you get a rude and a reckless?
Don’t you be so crude and a feckless
You been drinking brew for breakfast
Rudie can’t fail
-The Clash
Bonjour. Frenchman Rudy Gobert, like most players in the 2013 draft is a human Rorschach test. He has incredible strengths and glaring weaknesses. Gobert, unlike most college players, doesn’t have an extensive body of work that we were able to watch from which to draw conclusions. What we can do is infer from the information we know, and project onto him.
Rudy Gobert was once rumored to be 7’4,” was measured at 7’2″ in shoes at the combine along with a 7’8.5″ wingspan and a 9’7″ standing reach, both records. As has been discussed in this blog before by the estimable Kevin Hetrick, Rudy Gobert’s numbers do not exactly project “star.” As Kevin has noted, reach alone does not correlate to production, and speed of centers has been the best predictor of NBA success. Rudy Gobert’s 3/4 court sprint is 3.57, which isn’t great. His agility score of 12.77 wasn’t elite either. And as Kevin has also noted, standing reach and wingspan haven’t been great indicators of NBA success. In fact, at the extreme end, I’ve noticed they tend to be negative predictors. Perhaps most of these guys get so long they just can’t control their arms. But there are players who’ve posted corresponding numbers who’ve fared well in the NBA. Brook Lopez ran extremely similar numbers with a 3.57 and 12.77. He has fared well in the NBA. Andrew Nicholson posted a 3.66 3/4 court sprint and posted a similarly condorian wingspan of 7’4″. Nicholson just posted a fairly solid rookie season, and frankly should have replaced Tyler Zeller on the all-rookie second team.
Other Condors who’ve had success? Andre Drummond, Larry Sanders, Brendan Haywood, Alonzo Mourning, and Shaquille O’Neal all had wingspans over 7’6″. Of course that’s 6 names out of 43 on the DraftExpress measurements database. Borderline players on that list include Eddy Curry, Bismack Biyambo, and Desanga Diop. So 9 out of 43 players became at least rotation NBA players– a pretty horrible 21 percent. A big wingspan is not an automatic NBA pedigree.
But Rudy Gobert is not a player you can quote stats on, à la monsieur Hetrick’s marathon of draft profiles from last week. Yes, Gobert posted 8.4 and 5.4 boards in 22.7 minutes for Cholet last year, and shot 73.6% from the field. He posted 1.9 blocks, .7 steals 1.5 turnovers and 2.1 fouls in that time too, and shot 70.4% from the line. Yes, those are bizarre numbers. Yes, Gobert rarely shot from farther than 5 feet a way and put up pretty pedestrian rebound numbers for a guy who’s got a 9’7″ reach. But Rudy is like a piece of fine French cinema about clowns and balloons and women who smoke. He rewards multiple watchings.
I’ve been reading about and watching an awful lot of video on Rudy Gobert, and most of the draft pundits have have him pretty well nailed down. DraftExpress has a great profile on him, here, that was posted May 29th. Rudy does certain things better than anyone else in this draft, and he does certain things more poorly than anyone in this draft.
Strengths
- Potential to be an elite shotblocker/defensive player: he’s got impeccable timing, reach and instincts for blocking shots. Additionally, despite his low agility/sprint scores, he has good defensive footwork for a big man, and can show on the pick and roll, and trap guards. Due to his massive wingspan and very quick hands for his size, this trap is smothering.
- Ability to finish on the pick and roll: Gobert has very good hands and can catch and finish with either hand on the run, and doesn’t have to receive the pass high to convert. He gives a very large margin of error to the guard in P/R situations. I’d wager his hands are better than Noel’s. Furthermore, he has good pick and roll timing, though he is often looking to slip the pick more often than he is looking to sustain it for the guard. But he seems to be in constant offensive motion, looking to set screens or have his hands up to receive a pass. Rudy’s 71% field goal percentage was almost entirely out of these types of situations.
- Basketball IQ: in looking over a lot of his game video on RudyGobert.biz (which is the only .biz site I’ve ever been on that didn’t give my computer a virus)., Rudy seems very perceptive on offense and defense. He’s a willing, if not always effective passer, makes quick decisions with the ball, and has decent court vision. I’ve seen him make impressive passes: passes like catching the ball from the high post and touch passing it out to the wing for an open three without even bringing the ball in. Or, one dribble and a scoop pass to a cutting guard off the pick and roll. Also, his outlet passes are très bien.
- Consistent Motor: in all the video I’ve watched, Gobert wasn’t a loafer. He consistently ran on offense and defense. Unlike a guy like Anthony Bennett, Gobert gets back on defense, challenges the ball around the rim, and challenges guards. As a help defender he can be incroyable. Additionally, he’s constantly moving on offense and defense. I would much rather have a guy who has a 3.57 3/4 court sprint who runs every possession than a guy with a 3.2 who doesn’t.
- Range: in offense and defense, Gobert covers a lot of ground. He has a huge catch radius on lobs, cuts, and rebounds. If he gets his feet under him he has incredible rebounding range due to his wingspan.
- Offensive rebounding: Gobert gets 18% of his points off the o-boards, rebounding at a very nice rate. Has the potential to be a Zydrunas Ilgauskus like volleyball offensive rebound finisher.
- Intangibles: by all accounts he loves the U.S. and wants to be in the NBA. He works hard and has a desire to improve. And anyone can see who watches him for any length of time, he hasn’t had the best coaching and has had some pretty lousy teammates, yet kept running and playing hard.
Weaknesses (and this is where it gets bad).
- Horrible lower body: consistently gets pushed off the block, pushed out position for rebounds, and pushed out of the booth at Le Denny’s. Gobert has got to build up strength in his core and legs. That would probably help his sprinting and his agility, as well. As we can tell from the pic above, Rudy is ripped, and has 4.4% body fat, but his lower body needs work. He is frequently off balance and ends up on the floor after a lot of dunks and blocks.
- Plays too fast: part of the reason he’s on the floor a lot is that Rudy will make a decision and try to pull off a pass, a shot, or a cut before his body is ready to do it. This results in bad passes, goofy layup attempts, and falling down after a pick. Slow down, Rudy. You’ll get there.
- Extremely limited post game: Rudy doesn’t seal well and his post move is catch and finish with a dunk or spin and finish with a dunk. He has a bad jump hook, and doesn’t like turning to the middle. From what I saw, he tries to spin baseline for a layup or dunk far too often because he’s afraid to go to that hook. This results in him getting trapped under the basket, usually by much smaller players. He must develop l’hook to get better.
- Doesn’t shoot jumpers: DraftExpress said he was 0-6 on the year, but I saw him can a nice post turnaround J off the mid block in his highlight films, so I don’t know who to believe. Still, he doesn’t keep the ball up when he shoots. His 71% free throw percentage, excellent for his size, does not translate to live game situations because he brings the ball so low when he shoots. I’m quite sure this leads to him being blocked a lot. Rumor was his mid-range game looked decent at the combine, though.
- Defensive rebounding: doesn’t hold space and grab the ball as well as he should. Most of this is due to being pushed off the block and having no lower body strength.
- Project: Rudy Gobert is probably the definition of a project big man. He needs a lot of work to to be effective. Whoever drafts him will look like a genius or an idiot.
The attempt of this article is to draw a distinction. Rudy Gobert isn’t like other tall, foreign big men who’ve failed in the past. For one, it’s obvious when looking at his picture that he takes care of himself. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a guy that was so cut that you could see the striations in his muscles. Secondly, I encourage you to watch his game clips. While some of the clips look like high school ball, there’s vision and timing there that seem mature, both on offense and defense. He’s been playing since he was 11, and he’s been playing pro ball since he was 17. While he turns 21 the day of the draft, he’s different than most older big men. He’s never had American coaching. If his game can be rebuilt like Kelly Olynyk’s, then sacre bleu! Gobert could be a game changing NBA big man.
He’s already had several breakout performances.
At last year’s Adidas Eurocamp, Rudy, “shut down the paint against the U20 Russian team, finishing with 15 points on 7-8 shooting, 3 rebounds, and 4 steals while providing an incredible defensive presence in 30 minutes of action.”
I’ve always hated goofy foreign big men. I don’t know what has come over me. Maybe it’s my love of foie gras, berets, and mimes but Rudy is a Euro center I’d take a chance on. I don’t put as much stock in his sprint speed as Kevin. Furthermore, with Zydrunas Ilgauskus, Tristan, Andy, and new player development coach, Phil Handy (though I will miss Nate Thibbetts), can all help Rudy develop the post moves necessary to become a consistent finisher. Now I could be wrong, and Gobert might be the French word for Thabeet, but I believe Rudy will become a force in the NBA. If he’s not, I’ll pose for a pic with Kevin while he wears a “Je suis avec stupide” t-shirt.
The other problem is where to draft him. He’s rumored to go anywhere between six and the mid teens. The Cavs would be laughed at for taking him #1, and at #19, he probably won’t be there. But supposedly the Mavs are shopping the #12 to preserve cap space for this summer, and a future #1 would probably be enough to get it. Would Rudy be available then? It’s hard to know. I hope to see him in a Cavs uniform even if it’s a year before he’s contributing. Like English punk, and French wine, Rudy Gobert will get better with age.
P.S. Be sure to go to 3:07 on this video to see a tour of L’Appartement de Rudy to the tune of Bob Dylan’s “Meet me in the Morning” on Cholet local news. C’est Magnifique!
Kj – I think you’re misunderstanding the comparison. If Noel would be top 2 in most drafts, and Porter is second to him in THIS draft, that does not mean that Porter would be in the top 2 in other drafts. The difference between Noel and Porter could be very large, so while Noel is top 2 in nearly ever draft, a number of players could fall between Noel and Porter in other drafts.
If Noel would be top 2 in most drafts, that means he’s a once in a decade player according to his WARP. So it stands to reason that Porter would be second to him. But that does not mean Porter would be 7th in some other draft! In other words, Noel is distorting the picture vis-a-vis Porter’s WARP!
No, KJ, not correct.
He said Noel would be in the top two of most drafts in recent memory, one of which he would be tied for first. The fact he is still significantly higher than Porter shows that Porter most likely wouldn’t be in the top four or five of most of those drafts.
Josh, that is an incorrect analysis as Noel has a WARP as good as ANY prospect in the last 5 years or so according to Pelton, thus one could say in a normal draft, Porter could be the number one in WARP!
KJ,
Yes, Porter is Peltons second rated prospect, but he also said te difference between Noel and Porter is as large as the difference between Porter and the number seven prospect.
So while Noel would be an elite prospect in any draft, Porter is likely only an elite one in this weak draft.
Any player can fail. Centers are more of projections than smaller players.
Look, if people are going to quote Pelton here, then know that Porter is second to Noel in his WARP rankings for this year’s draft class. This mistaken belief that Porter is an average prospect is wrong if you believe Pelton’s numbers and Hetrick’s article on historical SF’s. Come on…
Not that it makes much of a difference, but (seeing as almost everybody keeps making the same mistake) the Thunder own the 12th pick. Dallas owns the 13th.
OK, I’ll play! :)
We scam Dallas out of #12. If we keep all three… does that change our intent toward #1?
Really like Karasev, a 19 year-old budding Eurostar, leading his league in scoring. Scouts predict he may have trouble on D, but he hasn’t shown any defensive weakness in competitions or showcases. Some of the same experts predicted similar deficiencies for Chandler Parsons, who turns out to be a pretty good defender. All reports say Karasev is an elite shooter with high IQ and some mongrel in him. Love him in the middle picks if we go with Nerlens.
Noel has the highest ceiling in the draft and plays a position of need. The sooner people realize he’s going to be part of the team (barring something crazy), the more of his dunks off Kyrie and Dion lobs and incredible blocks we can all enjoy without listening naysayers picking apart his game.
It’s an interesting dilemma, because young players don’t have a peak to measure against, since they’re still improving. So it’s incredibly hard to measure lost potential. I eyeballed the dots under the line and extrapolated out to 19 years old. It was an extremely scientific process.
Thanks for fixing, Nate. That’s an interesting study. I’ve seen a lot of people here mention it but that’s the first time I actually read it.
But wouldn’t the fact that Rubio’s expected first year decline is only 2 percen,t and Noel is three years younger than Rubio was, mean that the odds are the injury will have almost no affect on Noel?
I guess I still don’t see where, given Noel’s age, it could be at least a 20 percent chance he is ever the same player again?
Updated the article link, Josh. Sorry about that.
haha Live by Kevin Pelton, die by Kevin Pelton.
The first link didn’t work, but I’ll take your word for it. I still think given Noels age 20 percent is pretty high. But either way I stand by that if our doctors clear the knee 100 percent he’s the easy pick.
And those are just rough summations, obviously.
Must be Kevin Pelton day on this comment section. I take my numbers from http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2261
Also, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323384604578326451812887938.html
Nate, what are you going by that there is at least a 20 percent chance he is never the same? Assuming his knee checks out completely I think that number is pretty high. You also have to factor in that any player has a chance to tear an ACL or suffer another significant injury. If Noel’s knee checks out his chance of injuring that ACL are less than a player who hasn’t torn it. My only concern right now with Noel is the growth plate injury. I have no idea what the hell that even is and whether it has… Read more »
All these projections on Noel are fantastic, if he’s still the player that produced those projections. There’s a 5% chance that he completely flames out after this injury and at least a 20% chance that he’s not as good as he was. Additionally, there’s a significant chance that he is a better player after injury given the ability to focus on his shooting. But that 20% factor has to be included in the evaluation.
I really think that Dallas pick is a prime spot for us to move up, yeah its a weak draft and all but I have confidence in Grant and know he will find cool looking gems, if not diamonds, in the rough. We have waaaay too many picks so instead of picking guys we don’t have room for lets move up and get good quality.
Josh,
Still quite surprising, I like him but I don’t like him more than I did Oden or Durant or many other #1 picks of late. Hope he proves everyone wrong like last #1 pick!
Would much rather have Adams over Gobert. Adams projects to me as a Pekovic type center, with even more athletic ability there.
Would even take Lucas Noqueira over Gobert, having said that(Larry David style) I wouldnt be mad if we ended up with any of these guys.
Nerlens Noel would of been off the charts if he tested at the combine. Better than Davis too. Davis is long and athletic, but far from explosive.
David,
I double checked the quote because being ranked ahead of those two would seem odd and I was slightly off. Here is the exact quote. Still extremely high praise..
Kevin Pelton
(4:17 PM)
More on this, but his WARP projection would rank second in most every draft in recent memory other than 2010, when it would have tied for first.
Josh,
Nerlens is rated over Durant and/or Oden? I find that hard to believe/its a crappy “rater”
Kyrie, Calling Andrew Bogut more athletic than Noel is pretty absurd. If steals are indeed the biggest indictator of athletic ability, Nerlens DESTROYS him as an athlete. Not to mention he also destroys him in blocked shots. And if you don’t like stats the eye test alone shows Noel is the far superior athlete. Oden and Anthony Davis being better athletes, fine (though I think it’s much closer than you give it credit for), but Bogut, no way. Noel is an elite prospect. Kevin Peltons draft rater has him as at least the second best prospect in every draft of… Read more »
Doesn’t watching Hibbert in the playoffs persuade anybody that a strong presence in the paint would have much more value than a non-all star small forward? Don’t you think we can get a legitimate small forward as a free agent, in a trade, or via the draft?
If we’re thinking going to the playoffs this year I’d prefer a veteran small forward acquisition. I mean, as complete a player Porter is – he’s still going to be a thin rookie himself – and will continually be knocked off his mark.
Grover13:
Why do you think Kyrie and TT walk, when the next year the team could be great? They are not idiots.
They are much more likely to walk of the team blows it by going all out for 13-14, demonstrating that management is clueless.
How does Gobert compare to Lucas Noqueira? I know several of you were intrigued by Noqueira last week. One of the things I like about Noel is that he’s not just an athlete. He has a feel for the game. The timing and anticipation he demonstrates when making a block shows it goes beyond just length and athleticism. The films that show all the balls he’s knocking loose from other players tell you that he’s “thinking and reacting faster” than his opponent. I think he’s a baller, with the coordination to develop on offense – but with a body that… Read more »
Vensus I agree. I’d rather reach on a guy that should be a solid rotation player like Bullock or Tony Mitchell at 19 than target a boom/bust guy like Saric, Atembko, Karasev, or Gorbert.
@Kyrie: With Noel his athleticism is somewhat unpredictable because he was unable to do the combine drills. However, I would think his steal/ block totals and his tape is the best indicator of his abilities. His steal block numbers were behind only a couple of guys (I think Shaq, Robinson, and Hakeem) and better than Davis and Drummond. On tape the guy is always beating people to spots and amazingly nimble. Remember he got injured chasing down a guard from Florida. I get why people could be skeptical about his weight (220+ as playing weight not 206 rehab weight), his… Read more »
I’m starting to get on board with Noel just because he is such a physical freak and has a lot of “semi-measurables” like quick hands, great timing, explosiveness, etc. I will have to take his word for it that he is adding a 15-foot jumper to his game. We shall see. Obviously this is all predicated on the knee checking out, but his upside is probably too good to pass up in this draft. It will take a LOT more convincing to get me on the bandwagon for any of these Euro-stiffs though. I would rather take a less heralded… Read more »
Spots, Karasev was recently reported to be interested in staying in Europe another one to two years, to play for his Dad in St. Petersberg. Interestingly, this could actually increase his draft stock. A player who won’t want to come to the U.S. for a year or two may have some cachet to a team like Houston or Dallas who want all possible cap room cleared for a run at free agents. I’m guessing, and someone correct me if I’m wrong, if Karasev is under contract with another team, the team that drafted him does not have a cap hold.… Read more »
Gordon, Lets not over inflate Noel. Bigs with better athletic profiles than Noel in the last 10 years include Bogut, Oden, and Anthony Davis, to name a few. He is an elite college rim protector, unless he was playing against guys with any weight, in which case he became an elite help rim protector, as he got pushed out of the way on multiple occasions. He won’t walk into the NBA as a great defender, and I doubt he’ll even be good at first. I like Nerlens, and think he’ll put on some weight and be a very good defender… Read more »
Karasev @ 19
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9334732
Also, he’s put up his performances against college players – the same talent that guys like Otto Porter and Ben McLemore have proven themselves against.
Grover – Noel is not a 3-5 year project. That is absolutely absurd. He, like 95% of other NBA players, might not hit his prime until 3-5 years down the road. But to say he is a 3-5 year project is insane. This isn’t a Euro big that has never played American basketball. This is a guy who is the best athlete in this draft and one of the best athletic bigs to come out in 10 years. He is an elite shot blocker and rim protector. It might take him a year of rehab + weight lifting to put… Read more »
Joey- I like Adams as well. I would actually prefer him a bit to Gorbert because he plays very physical. Both are development projects though….AS IS NOEL. I’m sorry, where this team is right now, you don’t spend a #1 pick on a 3-5 year project. They are in a much different position from Charlotte/Phoenix/Orlando, who can stomach another 3 years of losing. If the Cavs do that, Kyrie walks, possibly TT as well. While I agree with others that Porter may not be a transcendant talent, I think he could easily be one of the top 5 people in… Read more »
I think tonight’s game will come down to what kind of production the Pacers get from their starting backcourt of Hill and Stephenson. I think if they play well on the road in a Game 7 with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, then the Pacers will advance. If they play mediocre or worse, then I think the Heat holf off the Pacers in a close game.
RE: Gorbert. I read about his measurements and I was intrigued about him….. Then I watched his highlight tape and I wasn’t to intrigued. I don’t see much other than a wingspan when it comes to Gorbert. When he blocks shots there’s little timing or elevation, its because he has boat oars for arms, I hardly see him being able to help in time from corner shooters and my thoughts are he’d get destroyed on pick and rolls. He’s really small so I’m not sure he could absorb contact at all and probably would have a hard time with even… Read more »
I completely agree with Gordon. I give Miami the slight edge to win Game 7 tonight.
I’m not sure how anyone could have watched the rest of the games in this series and say Indiana has no chance or a 10% chance. That’s absolutely ludicrous. Indiana easily could have already advanced. They have dominated the Heat for certain stretches of the series. They are healthier. They have the momentum.
I’d still call the Heat the favorite to advance but not by much.
I see Indiana having a legitimate shot. Dwayne Wade is not the Dwayne Wade of old. We all know LeBron James is the greatest player on the planet, but Indiana’s defense has figured this team out. It is going to come down to execution tonight. Indiana’s inside dominance equals LeBron’s dominance right now. Bosh might hit a few more jumpers tonight, but he’s not going to score 20 points. Either is Wade. If Miami’s threes are falling, they are going to need to fall all game. Remember, they were 6-6 from 3 point range early on in Game 6 and… Read more »
Kyrie, yeah, I don’t see Indiana having a shot, but with Wade and Bosh struggling, they might. I’ll be very interested in seeing the officiating because as much as the NBA wanted a game 7, I have to think an Indiana/San Antonio series is a nightmare scenario.
As for SA, I think you’re undervaluing the amount of rest they’re getting, and the fact that they can extensively scheme both teams. For a team of older players, it’s going to help them immensely. Ginobili says he feels like it’s training camp.
Gordon, to be fair no one knows who the best talent is, Nerlens included. Gobert may be the best of the bunch for all anyone knows, he’s been dominant every time he’s played against people his own age, including some of the best HS players in america. On a side note, 80% of home teams close out game 7’s, what are Indy’s chances tonight? I see them having about a 10% chance. Foul calls are going Miami’s way, significantly, I have a feeling. Spurs are in trouble either way though. Everyone so impressed by the Memphis sweep seem to be… Read more »
KyrieSwIrving, There undoubtedly are instances that I am not aware of, but other than short-handed Combined drill and the game against the U20 Russian team at the 2012 Adidas Eurocamp, what other anecdotes are there of Gobert dominating kids his own age? I’m just curious. Kanter, Valanciunas, etc were winning MVP’s at Euro-wide U16 and U18 tourneys. Valanciunas was 18 & 19 years old and putting up 26 / 27 PER’s in the EuroLeague and Eurocup. Those are the type of things that make sense to me. Not specifically to KyrieSwIrving, In looking at stuff to write this comment, I… Read more »
Grover – I do not see taking Porter #1 as a “best scenario” at all. The best scenario would be to take Noel, and use our plethora of picks this year and in the upcoming years to move back into the top 5-10 to grab a Porter or Bennett. Porter at #1 is far from the “best scenario”. It would mean our front office is putting too much into the “we must make the playoffs this year!” mindset and blowing their wad too soon. This is still a 2-3 year build moving forward, and taking the best talent is what… Read more »
grover13, the only counter I’d have is that you can’t stash him overseas. If Gobert’s going to get better he need to be in the Cavs system with regular player development, nutrition, weight training, etc. That team he’s on now does him no favors at all.
Also, as per hoopshype twitter today, “Jorge Sierra: French draft prospect Rudy Gobert reiterated to HoopsHype today he has no intention of returning to Europe for another season.”
Nate,
So you know, I don’t dislike Gobert…I just wasn’t that excited about his wingspan. He’s the age of a young NCAA Junior or old NCAA Sophomore, and he had a 22 PER in a decent European professional league. Before size / athleticism, I prefer age / productivity. I agree that in the middle of the first round, Gobert is worth a look.
Nate,
I saw that tweet from Jonathan Givony during the combine…they don’t play five on five at the combine though. Were those one on one drills? Three on three halfcourt? I think the context is important.
I’m in very much the same camp on Gobert. He’s a risk, but I think one worth taking in the mid-teens. I think the comparison made to similar players “of length” (cough) showing lack of success is a valid one; but that’s where you look at attributes like court awareness, ball IQ and hands skills, all of which Gobert seems to have. He doesn’t look like he’d be a complete dunderhead as most men of size (ahem) are. While not as athletic or experienced as Noel, I think Gobert could actually be the better rim protector if that’s what the… Read more »
And when I mention Hibbert’s lack of offensive game, I mean when he was drafted.
After watching Hibbert in this years playoffs, I’d definitely take a flier on Gobert at 19. They have a decent amount in common (lack of offensive game, goofy/awkward movement) but if Gobert has the motor/work ethic that hibbert has then I think he develops into a great player. But I’m usually pessimistic with euro players. Part of me hopes he’s gone by 19 just so we don’t have to deal with picking him or passing him up.
Nicely done Tom.
I figured you’d go with this title, or “The Gobert Report”
Kevin-
Length could also be contra indicated on the extreme if it was over valued. If all players over X height were automatically drafted then you would have a much higher % of totally physically inadequete players drafted above that height than below and you would get all kinds of screwy looking results. I personally think this happens in the NBA as it seems like every guy over 7 ft gets a shot at some point or another no matter how bad the rest of thier game looks.
baconbacon,
I completely agree and actually meant to say this. Since I only looked at drafted players, then negative correlations are certainly in part due to team’s over-drafting players with that given trait…players that otherwise don’t belong in the league.
Sounds like a lot of weaknesses that can be fixed (or even turned to strengths) with the right conditioning/coaching. Bringing the ball too low when he shoots? Sounds fixable. Weak lower body? Sounds like he’ll be doing squats and dead lifts for the first 6 months after the draft.
Could you imagine a Mike Brown defense with AV guarding the pink and roll, Nerlens Noel blocking shots, and Ruby Gobert clogging the lane and protecting the rim? Our defense would be incredible.
I’ve been on #TeamDarkHorseGobert for a while over at Fear The Sword. I’d certainly take a flyer with him after our #1 pick is gone. Whether it’s trading with Dallas to grab their #12 or hoping he falls to us at #19 (or maybe packaging our 2nd rounders again this year to move up.)
You’re right. I did take you out of context a bit, Kevin. But (and I corrected the article to reflect this) you have noted that players with extreme wingspans like Gobert’s have not been successful in the NBA. The longest wingspan of a successful NBA player was Shaq’s who measured 7’7″. More than one Alexis Anjinca comparison has been thrown around for Rudy. I would call extreme wingspan a negative predictor at this point. I should have also pointed out that many large centers choose not to run and do the agility drills.
As few notes: I wouldn’t call improvements in any length or athleticism trait as “negative predictors”. Some just had negative correlations, which essentially means that there are more important factors determining the player’s success. I tried to not indicate that being longer, faster, etc is a bad thing. Also, Andrew Nicholson is a power forward, so a different set of players. Brook Lopez is unique in that he has been a much better offensive center than on defense. He runs contrary (no pun intended) to many NBA centers in that way. DeMarcus Cousins was also slow, and is also a… Read more »