Southeast Division Preview

While the Southeast Division lacks a one percent title contender, it doesn’t host any tanking welfare mongers either. Four of the five squads in the division are expected to make the playoffs, and together they comprise the majority of the Eastern Conference’s middle class. The Wizards and Hornets are presumably the top teams in the division, but neither has the offensive firepower to keep up with the Cavaliers, or the depth and toughness to match the Bulls. The Heat and Hawks each field all-stars and appear to be 40-plus win teams themselves, but as the conference has grown deeper there are less cupcakes on the schedule to gorge on and fatten their win totals. The Magic are the little brother of the division, tagging along to the pickup game. This is a maturation season for Orlando, and they could contend for the playoffs as soon as next season.

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks had one of the leagues best offseasons last summer bringing in eventual all-star Paul Millsap, role-player extraordinaire Kyle Korver and longtime Spurs assistant Mike Budenholzer as head coach. Budenholzer swiftly transformed Atlanta’s offense into a floor-spacing symphony. The team backed into the playoffs after former all-star Al Horford’s season ending injury. They exited the playoffs in the first round for the third year in a row.

This offseason has been a summer long feces fair for the franchise, and they’ve entered the discussion for having the most dysfunctional ownership situation in sports. The abridged version is that owner Bruce Levenson self-reported a racially insensitive email he penned a few years ago about his desire to get more white folk to come to games by making the atmosphere at Philips Arena less black. General Manager Danny Ferry traded away microwave off the bench, Lou Williams, and Lucas Nogueira — the 2013 first round pick with the awesome afro — to clear space to sign an impact wing. Every target of Ferry’s opted for elsewhere. Ferry was then the focus of his own race scandal a few weeks later in which he read a scouting report with offensive remarks about Luol Deng. Ferry is currently on indefinite leave.  Your move Buss Family.

On a positive note, the Hawks welcomed Horford back to the active roster last week, and they return the majority of their playoff team from a year ago.

Additions: Thabo Sefolosha (Oklahoma City), Kent Bazemore (Los Angeles Lakers), Adreian Payne (Michigan State)

Subtractions: Lou Williams (Toronto), Lucas Nogueira (Toronto)

Storylines:

1. Does the front office turmoil trickle down to the court? NBA players have enough distractions in their lives with the taxing travel schedule, moochers shaking them down for money and paternity lawsuits; the last thing they need is to answer race-related questions after every practice.

2. When the team is sold does the new owner end the cycle of mediocrity by firing Ferry and auctioning Horford and Millsap to the highest bidder for a page-one rewrite of the franchise?

3. Will the already marginally interested fan base be further turned off by the race scandals? The Hawks finished a pathetic 28th in attendance last season, and they’ve struggled at the gate for years.  Levenson’s email was poorly worded and insensitive on numerous levels, but his desire to get the city to embrace the franchise was understandable.

Cavs Championship threat level: 3

Honestly, that’s probably being generous. As much talent as Millsap and Horford have, they are Outback Steakhouse whereas LeBron and Love are perfectly marbled 55-day, dry-aged prime ribeyes at David Burke’s. Pick a position on the Hawks roster, and the Cavs have an answer and more depth. The Cavs would send the Hawks fishing if they met in the playoffs.

Prediction: 42-40

At full-strength, Atlanta has a talented squad that could be in the discussion for the third or fourth seed in the East if everything goes right.  After the summer they’ve had, best-case scenario doesn’t seem like a realistic expectation. Millsap and Horford are probably second bananas on a genuine contender. They could have signed Sefolosha without trading away their only offensive threat off the bench and a young prospect with fun hair. Free agents have shunned them the past two summers, and Ferry is a dead man walking no matter how the team finishes.

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets leaving Charlotte and being replaced by the Bobcats seemed like a Patton Oswalt bad Earth scenario in line with the Kardashians being role models and our vegetables being covered with poison. For years the Bobcats were plagued by annual draft busts, and their front office got hustled in trades like a grandma donating $200 to Charlotte televangelist David Cerullo in exchange for prosperity and physical healings.

A decade later, the lame nickname and hideous color scheme that never fit went out with a bang as the team made the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Their postseason drive was fueled by key offseason addition Al Jefferson, the development of Kemba Walker and Head Coach Steve Clifford’s swarming defense. With the return of the Hornets, Hugo and The Hive, there is a growing optimism that the dark ages are over and that the time of a Charlotte basketball renaissance is upon us.

Additions: Lance Stephenson (Indiana), Marvin Williams (Utah), Noah Vonleh (rookie), Brian Roberts (New Orleans), P.J. Hairston (county lockup)

Subtractions: Josh McRoberts (Miami), Luke Ridnour (Orlando), Chris Douglas-Roberts (Los Angeles Clippers)

Storylines:

1. Will The Hive be alive? Charlotte was one of the better NBA markets before former owner George Shinn’s public affair and mandate for a new arena that ultimately led to the Hornets relocating in the first place. The original incarnation of the Hornets had 346 consecutive sell-outs. Last season, the Bobcats finished 25th in attendance with 15,518 per game. The city never embraced the new franchise. Will the return of the Hornets brand along with a competitive team bring back the fans?

2. Can Lance Stephenson be counted on? He has Patron talent with Pepe Lopez maturity. Last season he led the league in triple-doubles and paced all guards with 7.2 rebounds per game.  At his best he’s probably a top-30 player in the league.  At his worst he’s locker room anthrax. Stephenson and P.J. Hairston together could be a key master meets the gatekeeper type of scenario.

3. Will General Manager Rich Cho make a major trade? The Hornets own all of their first round picks going forward, and the roster is stocked with young assets in Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Vonleh and Cody Zeller. If David West, Rajon Rondo or another star becomes available, the Hornets could offer a compelling package.

Cavs Championships threat level: 5

Jefferson would dominate the Cavs bigs on the block. Walker could come close to Irving’s output. Kidd-Gilchrist is growing into his defensive puppy paws (0.94 Defensive RAPM last season), and he would relish the challenge of hounding LeBron for a series. Then there’s the Lance and LeBron dynamic. I’m assuming Stephenson would make armpit farts while LeBron shoots free throws or something. Even if they do parlay their assets into a star, I have a hard time imagining them being able to keep up on the scoreboard with the nitrous button equipped Cavaliers offense.

Prediction: 48-34

The franchise has come a long way considering they posted the worst winning percentage in league history just two seasons ago. The Jefferson signing thus far has been a success. Kemba Walker has emerged as a leader on the team after just three seasons. How many other players from the draft class of 2011 can you say that about? If Stephenson can keep his antics to playful on court banter and consistently play to his talent level, his contract could be a bargain. Vonleh was 5th on Chad Ford’s final Big Board and has the potential to be a long, athletic stretch-four down the road. If MKG’s Mark Price reconstructed jumper is legit, he could validate his high draft selection and be a vicious two-way weapon for years to come. For the first time in a long time the future of professional basketball appears bright in Mecklenburg County. With a decent salary cap situation, youth and movable assets this team can improve greatly in the coming seasons.

Miami Heat

Get your white pants on and fan up for your 2014 Miami Heat! Now that I got that out of my system, the franchise handled LeBron’s exit with class and made some quality additions to the roster before he took his talents back to Euclid Beach. Without James, expectations have been drastically lowered for the franchise. Now that the Heatles are no more, the heel heat they received in away arenas will most likely extinguish.

As someone who may or may not have had a physical altercation with a Heat fan in the past year and then attempted to flush his hat down a toilet, I can personally say that the hate in my heart for that franchise is gone. I no longer have rooting interests in hurricane season. LeBron is back in Cleveland and the Heat are back to being a mid-carder like they were before he arrived there.

Additions:

Luol Deng (Cleveland), Josh McRoberts (Charlotte), Danny Granger, (Los Angeles Clippers), Shannon Brown (New York)

Subtractions:

LeBron James (The Land of Believe), James Jones (LeBron’s guest house), Rashard Lewis (Dallas), Shane Battier (Denny’s), Greg Oden (a bar outside of a courtroom), Michael Beasley (a Chinese prison)

Storylines:

1. Bosh was relegated to being Fredo in the Miami Mafia for the past four years. He now has the second biggest contract in the league (5-years, $118 million); is he still a top-20 player?

2. Can Wade hold up? He’s another year older and had another extended playoff run. World of Wade (worst self-coined nickname ever) was rested often and only played in 54 games in the regular season. They no longer have LeBron to take over when Wade is out.

3. Will Pat Riley retire to his palace in Malibu after the season? The rumors of Riley’s retirement started before the Spurs beat Miami with a switch in The Finals. Will he stick around for a capped out, aging team that could be knocked out in the first round?

Cavs Championship threat level: 5

I only put the threat level that high because it’s possible that Pat Riley secretly trained LeBron via post-hypnotic suggestion to turn on the Cavaliers when the bass line of Seven Nation Army plays (ala Reggie Jackson in Naked Gun). Was LeBron James setting a pick on Cavaliers teammate Mathew Dellavedova just a test run for a playoff series catastrophe?

Seriously though, Miami has no shot against the Cavs in a playoff series. With a Wade injury here and a Bosh funk there, the Cavs and Heat could meet in the first round. Will Dan Gilbert resist the urge to do DX crotch chops as Miami walks off the floor after the final game of the sweep?

Prediction: 44-38

Key contributors Wade and Deng are injury risks with oodles of miles on their fragile legs. How much will Norris Cole and Mario Chalmers’ already inconsistent production fall off without the attention LeBron draws? McBob’s success could have been a bi-product of Al Jefferson drawing double teams in the paint.

The absolute best part of the Miami reboot is that they’ll have significant cap room in 2016, but what star will want to take his talents to South Beach then to play with a 34-year-old Wade and a 32-year-old Chris Bosh? Compound that with the inevitable Riley retirement and Miami’s future appears to be in NBA purgatory for years to come. This ship is sinking just like Micky Arison’s Costa Concordia did.

Orlando Magic

The Magic are in the third season of the post Dwight Howard era and they could become a frequent #leaguepassalert team with the athleticism of Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton’s playmaking ability. While this figures to be another lottery bound season, they’ll have max cap room next summer and Orlando is one of the few NBA franchises that has actually landed a legit max free agent.

Additions: Aaron Gordon (rookie), Elfrid Payton (rookie), Channing Frye (Phoenix), Luke Ridnour (Charlotte), Evan Fournier (Denver)

Subtractions: Jameer Nelson (Dallas), E’Twaun Moore (Chicago), Doran Lamb (Dallas)

Storylines:

1. Does Nikola Vucevic get a Nikola Pekovic type contract? Peko put up better stats in his third season, but Vucevic will be four years younger when he reaches restricted free agency. I’d set the over/under on Vucevic’s next contract at $11.5 million per season and I like the over.***UPDATE*** Vucevic and the Magic agreed to a four-year, $54 million contract extension yesterday.  Is he worth $13.5 million a season?

2. Does Oladipo develop into a go-to player or is he a really good complimentary piece?

3. Can the Magic lure a major free agent next summer? They have the no state income tax card, good weather and a strong, young supporting cast.

Cavs Championship threat level: 1

I can’t see putting a team that won’t make the playoffs higher than that. While they Magic aren’t a threat to the Cavs now, they could be in three or four seasons depending on if they can land a big fish, and how their young core develops. Could they be an out of the box Durant destination in 2016?

Prediction: 29-53

Channing Frye will space the floor giving the playmakers driving lanes and Vucevic an uncluttered paint to operate in. If Oladipo and Vucevic each take a step forward and Payton and Gordon play to their expectations, Orlando could be fighting for the playoffs next season regardless of whether or not they bring in a star.

Washington Wizards

The Wizard’s made the playoffs and advanced to the second round in John Wall’s fourth season. That’s generally the amount of time it takes for a team that hits rock bottom to rebound. If you don’t make the playoffs by then, the rebuild was probably a failure.

Additions: Paul Pierce (Brooklyn)

Subtractions: Trevor Ariza (Houston), Trevor Booker (Utah)

Cavs Championship threat level: 4

Yeah, that’s right. I think Washington will win the division, but are a lower threat level than the Hornets to the Cleveland’s first title since in 50 years. The Wizards probably aren’t going to make a trade that will cost them long-term cap flexibility during the Durant summer of 2016. LeBron will relish beating Paul Pierce’s corpse into the hardwood. For all of the love that John Wall got last season, he isn’t the budding star that Irving is. For all of the criticism that Irving received last year, the Cavs finished with a better record than the Wizards at the same point in their rebuild. Then there’s our favorite insomniac Dion Waiters. I imagine that Waiters has been staring at Bradley Beal’s #NBARANK of 48 (53 spots higher than Waiters) all week like Ted Bundy eyeing a brunette at a discotheque. Beal’s rank is probably the backdrop on Dion’s phone.

Prediction: 50-32

The Wizards have proven that you can miss in the draft, but if you land a couple gems during a rebuild and surround them with a competent supporting cast, you can make the playoffs. That’s the formula people. Beal and Wall have as bright of a future as any backcourt in the league. While Washington’s ceiling is probably a second round exit at best the next two seasons, the summer of 2016 will be here before you know it. If the Thunder don’t win a title this season, the whispers of Kevin Durant returning to his hometown will be a year long distraction.