Southwest Division Preview

[Editor’s Note: This is the third part in our annual six part series of division previews, here at C:tB. Evil Genius tackled the Pacific Division, and Cory Hughey handled the Northwest Division. David Wood brings you Southwest Division preview. Key to every team in this series will be the teams’ additions, subtractions, storylines, a prediction of how far they’ll go this season, and a new wrinkle for this year…  a spotlight on a player we’d love to have and a player we love to hate from each team.]

The Southwest Division is one of the toughest in the NBA. Last season all five teams made the playoffs; this season might be the same as every team outside of Dallas has significantly improved weaknesses. The Rockets will unleash another scorer in Ty Lawson. Memphis gets to play with a 3 and D guy in Matt Barnes, and they can toss lobs to Brandan Wright on a nightly basis. The Spurs get to integrate LaMarcus Aldridge’s spot on mid-range shooting into their offense. And, the Pelicans get to have the ultimate team tune-up from Alvin Gentry and his assistant coaches.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks made a feel good move last year by reacquiring former center Tyson Chandler. That gave them a reasonable defense. Then Rick Carlisle installed an offense that utilized a non-stop flurry of pick and rolls, which almost always resulted in an open shot. Their offense was so potent with point guard Jameer Nelson that in less than a month of NBA play Zach Lowe said it was on pace ” to smash the all-time league record for scoring efficiency by an almost comical margin.”

The team traded for Rajon Rondo mid-season, and Rondo used his superior ball handling skills to drive the team bus off a metaphorical bridge into a river filled with slow ineffective offensive possessions. Rondo eventually lost the privilege of evening swimming in his self-created turd river when the Mavs sent him home during the playoffs.

The Mavericks offered DeAndre Jordan a max contract this summer, which Jordan intended to sign until he got cold feet. The Clippers then flew out to Jordan’s Houston house and wooed him back with promises of post ups and Chris Paul shutting his mouth. The Mavs were able to aquire mid-career shooting guard Wes Matthews, and in typical fashion, they rounded out the rest of their team with older heady guys on short contracts.

Additions: Justin Anderson (draft), Satnam Singh (draft), ZaZa Pachulia (trade with Bucks), Deron Williams (free agent after being bought out by Nets), Brandon Ashley (free agent) Samuel Dalembert (free agent), Jeremy Evans (Utah), J.J. Barea (re-signed), Charlie Villanueva (re-signed), Wesley Matthews (Portland), John Jenkins (Atlanta), JaVale McGee (free agent), Jamil Wilson (free agent), Maurice N’dour (free agent), Salah Mejri (free agent)

Subtractions: Al-Farouq Aminu (Blazers), Bernard James (Shanghai Sharks), Richard Jefferson (Cleveland), Tyson Chandler (Phoenix), Monta Ellis (Indiana), Rajon Rondo (Sacramento), Amare Stoudemire (Miami)

Storylines

1. Will Deron Williams continue to be a coach killer? Williams has had a poor relationship with every single one of his coaches to date in his career. And, Carlisle isn’t one to shy away from confrontation considering he sent Rondo home during the Playoffs last season. Deron vs Rick is going to be much watch TV some nights. If Deron does indeed try to oust Carlisle, he needs to rewrite the iconic Body Count song “Cop Killer” to deal with killing coaches.

2. The Mavericks need their collective skill to overcome athleticism this season. Wesley Matthews is coming off of a torn achilles injury and will not be as explosive as he was before. Chandler Parsons probably had super secret microfracture surgery. Deron Williams has ankles made of tissue paper. And, ZaZa and Dirk Nowitzki are about as athletic as LeBron would be with just one leg. Dallas can’t out hustle teams, but they can out execute teams

3. Can Justin Anderson, Wesley Matthews, and Chandler Parsons be true 3 and D guys? Dallas needs some guys who can play defense that’s above average without relying on a Carlisle scheme. These three guys will also be called upon to get some transition buckets while the olds stay at the other end of the floor to rest.

Player I’d Love to Have: The Cavs were high on Justin Anderson before the draft. However, he was nabbed before Cleveland drafted. Anderson shot 45% from beyond the arc as a Junior at Virginia. At 6’6” and 227 pounds, he has decent size.

Player I Love to Hate: Deron Williams always has a stinky frown, drawn on hairline, and terrible attitude that stop him from lifting his teams up. Deron went from being on the same level as Chris Paul to being a third tier point guard. He experienced injuries, but a lot of his issues on the court are from his mindset. Paul Pierce even called him out after leaving Brooklyn:

Before I got there, I looked at Deron as an MVP candidate… But I felt once we got there, that’s not what he wanted to be. He just didn’t want that.

Prediction: 45-37 Lose in the first round in seven games

The Mavericks are going to lose games this year because young teams run them out of the building on some nights. However, they will win games against some contending teams like the Thunder, Warriors, and Spurs, because they run an offense that bends opponents to their breaking points. Defensively, Carlisle is going to find a way for the group to be passable, despite not having rim protector like Tyson Chandler.

Dirk is coming off his second worst shooting season since he was a rookie (17.3 PPG), and he grabbed just 5.9 boards a game to go with 1.9 assists. If Dirk misses time or his production slips just a bit more, the Mav’s offense won’t perform like it did last year. The best case scenario for the Mavs is Dirk returning to form and showing the league that brains can overcome superior talent in the playoffs (see Spurs during their last title run).

 Houston Rockets

James Harden led the Rockets to a 56-26 record with Dwight Howard missing 41 games during last season. The Basketball Gods rewarded Houston by gifting them a Rondo-ruined Dallas team and an exhausted LA Clippers team in the playoffs. In fact, the Clippers were so exhausted that they blew a 3-1 series lead in the conference semi-finals. Without their resident point guard defender, Patrick Beverly, the Rockets lost the Western Conference Finals to the Warriors in five games by an average of 13.5 points.

The Rockets are contenders this season. Harden projects to be a top five scorer, while Donatas Motiejunas looks like a low post threat (he posted the fourth highest field goal percentage on hook shots last year at 56%) ,who can back-up Howard. Beverly will also be back to make top NBA guards question their dribbling skills. Finally, the Rockets traded four second thought guys for the DUI troubled guard Ty Lawson. Lawson can run an offense and score/create almost as well as Harden, while dishing out five plus assists. The Rockets probably didn’t deserve to make the Western Conference Finals last season, but they do this year.

Additions: Sam Dekker (draft), Montrezl Harrell (draft), Patrick Beverley (re-signed), K.J. McDaniels (re-signed), Corey Brewer (re-signed), Jason Terry (re-signed), Marcus Thornton (Suns), Ty Lawson (trade with Nuggets)

Subtractions: Josh Smith (Los Angeles Clippers), Kostas Papanikolaou (trade with Nuggets), Pablo Prigioni (trade with Nuggets), Joey Dorsey (trade with Nuggets), Nick Johnson (trade with Nuggets)

Storylines

1.Ty Lawson needs to reclaim his career and ensure that his alcohol related problems benefited at least one thing in the world, Houston’s title chances. Houston is a party city boasting the most strip clubs of any place in America. Lawson may be tempted to drink throughout the year, but the Rockets must think having a chance to contend for titles will straighten Ty out. It also helps that Lawson voluntarily made his contract’s final year a team option. He knows this is his last chance.

2. The Rockets have two capable 4s in Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas. Jones is a per-36 princess. In 36 minutes, he projects to get 2.4 blocks a night to go with 15.6 points and 8.9 rebounds. Let’s not forget he also averaged 35% from 3-point land. D-Mo had an awesome season last year too. He averaged 12 points and hit almost two 3s a night while showing some fancy footwork down low in just 28 minutes per game. He is currently recovering from back surgery and might not be ready for training camp. Both of these power forwards are restricted free agents this coming off season; Houston will likely part with one of them during the year if they need to plug any gaps on the team.

3. 

James Harden was the runner up in MVP voting last season. He will need to be in the MVP conversation again if the Rockets are planning on getting to the Finals. Can he average 27.4 points, 7 assists, 1.9 steals, and 8.8 freebies a night again? Rocket fans better pray he’s practicing his basketball skills before going out to the club (see above) and after wearing Jordans to the movies instead of Adidas, or it will be a long season. Furthermore, Dwight Howard will need to play more than 41 games this year. Those two determine how high the Rockets’ rocket will go.

Player I’d Love to Have: Patrick Beverly is the most annoying American player. If the Cavs teamed him the most annoying Australian player (Matthew Dellavedova) in two PG lineups, they could guarantee other teams got a technical at some point in the game from pure frustration.

Player I love to Hate: James Harden is incredibly difficult to watch at times. He does his weird Euro-step move varying the distance of his steps perfectly to careen into unaware defenders for free throws. I appreciate this move the first four times in a game, but that fifth time he does it drives me batty. This isn’t a court of law, Mr. Harden. The refs shouldn’t be judges waiting to arbitrarily enforce some rules you have decided to abuse.

Prediction: 60-22 Western Conference Finals

The Rockets offense revolved around a lot of James Harden last season. By the time the playoffs rolled around, he had to have been tired. Ty Lawson is going to save Harden from having to always score or create easy 3s for his teammates. The return of Patrick Beverly will help the Rockets should they run into Stephen Curry and the Warriors again. Curry will have to think once, instead of not at all, before shooting 3s with Patrick on him. That three guard lineup should help the Rockets avoid having to play Jason Terry for extended stretches.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzles had a frustrating playoffs last year. After making the post season as the 5th seed with a 55-27 record, they faced Portland in the first round. They lost Mike Conley to a facial fracture in game three of the series, but still closed the Blazers out in five games. In round two, against the Warriors, the Grizzlies desperately needed Conley’s offense, and when Mike returned to play game two, Memphis looked alive. The Grindin Ones stole games two and three, while Golden State’s offense played at Memphis’s pace.

However, Golden State realized two things in game four that changed the series: 1. Conley was playing with a surgically repaired face that he didn’t want to put in danger. 2. Tony Allen can’t shoot threes at all, so it’s okay to completely ignore him and make Dave Joerger bench his Curry/Thompson stopper since the floor is so clogged.

Tony Allen missed the next game with a hamstring injury, and the Warriors won the series in six games. This off season the Grizzlies re-signed do it all center/center piece, Marc Gasol (17.4ppg, 1.6 blocks, 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, defensive anchor) and added role players Brandan Wright and Matt Barnes. Wright is a very capable pick and roll finisher, and Matt Barnes hits 36% of his shots from deep.

Additions : Marc Gasol (re-signed), Brandan Wright (Suns), Matt Barnes (trade with Hornets), Jarell Martin (draft), Andrew Harrison (draft)

Subtractions: Kosta Koufos (Kings), Nick Calathes (Greece), Jon Leur (trade with Suns), Luke Ridnour (trade with Hornets)

Storylines

1. Who on the Grizzlies can bring their A-game offensively? The Grizzlies wear teams down by playing at a really slow pace, but a lot of times they can’t capitalize on that because they don’t have a heat check guy to pull them ahead. Vince Carter was supposed to be that for them, but he averaged just under six points a game and shot less than 30% from 3-point land. He could be done. Maybe, Jordan Adams can be the heat man. In extremely limited minutes as a rookie last season, he shot 40% from beyond the arc.

2. How many nutty guys can the Grizzlies locker room support? Somehow, the Grind Gods have had Tony Allen and Z-Bo in their locker room for years with no problems whatsoever. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, presumably, balance them out. Adding Matt Barnes to the crazy mix could bend the locker room in ways unimaginable to mankind. There could be press conferences where Z-Bo, Barnes, and Allen all claim to have dated J-Lo, Rihanna, and Paris Hilton respectively.

3. The world is going acknowledge how enjoyable the Grizzlies are to watch this season. Memphis likes to have Gasol catch the ball at the elbow, then pass back out to the perimeter. Then Gasol will shift himself just enough to temp the opposing team to look his way before catching the ball again. Gasol will then find whoever has cut into the paint, or moved into position for an open shot. The Grizzlies offense does every thing with purpose to make their lack of shooting less of a factor. If I were single still, I would show my new partner the video below to get a romantic evening started. It’s so titillating.

Player I’d Love to Have: I have dreams about Marc Gasol. Did you read storyline number three. He’s the best passing big man in the game. He can also make the mid-range shot, and when he puts his mind to it, he can Pau Gasol some dudes in the post for easy baskets. Gasol also looked like many of us during adolescence: pudgy, goofy, and smiling awkwardly.

Player I Love to Hate: In all honesty there isn’t a player on the Grizzlies that I dislike. When the King left for Miami, I followed the Grizzlies simply because I needed a team that was playing NBA level ball to watch on some nights. In my eyes, this team embodies everything the Big 3 Miami teams didn’t. They’re a group of humble guys who have worked themselves into what they currently are. None of this team came into the league as stars.

Prediction: 59-23, Lose in the second round

The Grizzlies improved where they needed to this summer. Matt Barnes will do a little bit of what Vince Carter was supposed to and bring it defensively. However, this team needs someone that is a pure scorer. Mike Conley can score, but that’s not his primary concern. He takes what’s given to him and nothing more or less. Zach Randolph is too old to score much more than 15 a night now. And, Marc Gasol could score more, but I’m not sure it’s in his DNA. He passes up open looks to find even better shots too much. The Grizzlies were 16-5 when Gasol scored 22 or more. Good things happen when he is getting shots to drop.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs lost their last game of the season to the New Orleans Pelicans. Instead of landing the number two seed, they dropped to the seventh seed and had to face the Los Angeles Clippers in round one.  The series went to seven games, despite Tony Parker and Tiago Splitter having nagging injuries. In game seven, Tim Duncan put up 27 points and 11 rebounds to go with two super clutch free throws to tie the game with just seconds left. Chris Paul then put up a game winning bank shot to send the Spurs home.

During the off season, the Spurs extended their title window by grabbing top tier power forward LaMarcus Aldridge and veteran David West. No one knows how LMA will fit in with this team, but he is money from the high post and the left block, and he’s a nice supporting star to place next to Kawhi Leonard.

The team also managed to retain Danny Green for a below market deal worth $45 million over four years. Kawhi signed his max deal after the season instead of taking an early extension, which ultimately freed up the cap space needed to sign Aldridge.

Additions: LaMarcus Aldridge (from Trail Blazers), Matt Bonner (re-signed), Tim Duncan (re-signed), Jimmer Fredette (from Pelicans), Manu Ginobili (re-signed), Danny Green (re-signed), Kawhi Leonard (re-signed), Boban Marjanovic (free agent), Jonathon Simmons (free agent), David West (Pacers), Ray McCallum (trade with Kings)

Subtractions: Tiago Splitter (trade with Hawks), Corey Joseph (Raptors), Marco Belinelli (Kings), Aron Baynes (Pistons)

Storylines

1. Tony Parker has to come back this season able to score. He put up just 14.4 points a game this past season, the lowest he’s averaged since coming into the NBA. He dished the ball out just 4.9 times a night, which is a near career low too. Parker has never had a great jump shot. What makes him so deadly is his ability to use a pick to blast around a big that’s too close to him, or to throw a smart pass if a lane is open. If Tony can no longer get around guys to finish by the rim, his passing ability drops dramatically cause no one will play off of him.

2. And, before the eighth game of the season, Pop said, “Let there be rest for Tim Duncan. Let there be plenty of shots for young LaMarcus. Let my Mormon friend Jimmer attempt some 3-pointers.” There won’t be as many shots for Aldridge as there were in Portland, but people are definitely overreacting when they say LMA isn’t going to get enough touches. Pop rests Duncan a lot and will be sure to get Aldridge an appropriate amount of post-up chances and in-the-flow of the offense jumpers. If you don’t believe me, check out Zach Lowe’s piece about LMA’s integration that points out how he can simply slide into some of the spots Timmy goes to for shots.

3. Kawhi Leonard has to be better than Tim Duncan this year. Tim is the rock of the Spurs and no matter what the team knows he can get 13 points and 9 rebounds a night while protecting the rim. Leonard needs to jump into true Superstardom. Kawhi averaged 20.3 points a game during the playoffs last year. Duncan averaged 17.9. However, in a must win game seven against the Clippers, Leonard had just 13 points , while Duncan had 27. Timmy didn’t let the pressure get to him.

Player I’d Love to Have: I love Matt Bonner. He is sponsored by the Texas soda Big Red. He rocks New Balance basketball shoes and does dunks contests. He also works with a company called GEMR, which has a social media site for collectors. And, finally, he earned the nick name “Red Mamba” because he’s the ginger version of Kobe Bryant.

Player I Love to Hate: Tony Parker is a jerk. He had Eva Longoria and cheated on her with a teammate’s wife. Cheating is wrong to begin with, but it’s even more of an issue when it’s with someone who is of the level Eva is. And Tony broke the bro code. Tony’s actions screamed, “I’m full of myself.”

Prediction: 59-23 Western Conference Finals

How many of you reading this really thought the Spurs would lose to the Clippers last season? Greg Popovich makes me think the Spurs can do anything. Adding LMA just gives Pop one more way to torture opposing defenses, and Pop was already doing a great job of that without him. The Spurs aren’t afraid of anyone in the league, and it’s hard to think of them having a repeat fluke exit in the first round two years in a row. If Tony Parker really is done, the Spurs can turn into a post up driven team, which isn’t too bad considering the personal they have.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans beat the Spurs the last night of the regular season to secure the 8th seed in the Western Conference playoffs. Once there, they struggled to slow the Warriors down. In game three, they entered the the fourth quarter up by 20 points. The Warriors erased that deficit and tied at end of the game with a Curry three. They took that game in overtime and sealed the series less than 48 hours later.

Last season Anthony Davis posted a career and league high PER of 30.89. He scored 24.3 points a game to go with 2.9 blocks and 10.2 rebounds, while shooting 54% from the field. The Pellies smartly locked Davis up with a five year deal worth $145 million this summer.

When the 2015 season ended, New Orleans was ninth in offensive efficiency and 22nd in defensive efficiency. If Alvin Gentry can get this squad to defend just a little bit better, they will be winning more than 45 games a year quite easily.

Additions: Alexis Ajinca (re-signed), Dante Cunningham (re-signed), Omer Asik (re-signed), Luke Babbitt (re-signed), Alonzo Gee (Blazers), Kendrick Perkins (Cavs)

Subtractions: Toney Douglas (Pacers), Jimmer Ferdette (Spurs), Jeff Withey (Jazz)

Storylines

1. This team is relatively young with an average age of 26.5. To put that number in perspective, the 76ers have an average age of 23.2, and the Cavs have an average age of 28.5. The issue with the Pelicans’ age is that no one on the roster seems to have star level upside aside from Anthony Davis. Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, and Jrue Holiday are fine players, but they aren’t the type of guys who are going to improve drastically in the coming years. That puts a lot of pressure on new coach Alvin Gentry to make this group succeed.

2. Alvin Gentry needs to use this team’s strengths to become better defensively. Most of the players on this team, Ryan Anderson aside, are average or above average defenders. The Pelicans blocked a league leading 6.2 shots a night last year. Yet, they still allowed 25.5 shot attempts at the rim per game(last in the league), and opponents made 52.4% of those shots (20th in the league). Something funky is going on with how this team is defending because shots are being erased, and they still can’t stop anyone from getting into the paint. If you’re interested why teams got into the paint so easily, read James Grayson’s piece at Bourbon Street Shots about the Pelican’s pick and roll defense.

3. If this team looks like they are going to miss the playoffs, there is going to be a lot of talk about the lack of talent put around Anthony Davis. Watch for the Pelicans to end up in trade talks for a disgruntled star later in the season.

Player I’d Love to Have: I have a unibrow and so does Anthony Davis, which makes us practically related. He gets love for that. Davis also puts up ridiculous numbers and is the future of the league as a 6’10” forward who can cover five positions and shoot the ball.

Player I Love to Hate: Omer Asik is such a one dimensional player that he’s annoying to watch. How can someone with such good defensive foot work at the rim, have no ability to catch passes? It’s even more baffling that he can’t catch passes when you consider that he rebounds the ball quite well. Maybe the Pelicans should try lofting passes to him like air balls.

Prediction: 55-27 Lose in the first round in seven games.

Under assistant coach/ former Warriors defensive guru, Darren Erman, this group will become a top ten defense. There will be a consistent plan for defending pick and rolls that takes advantage of Davis’s shot blocking abilities. Offensively, I have questions about this team. They were ranked ninth last season in offensive efficiency, and it’s hard to see how they can get higher than that with this team. Although, new coach Alvin Gentry did help create Golden State’s offense and has improved already great offenses before. Zach Harper of CBS Sports brought this to my attention:

When Gentry took over for Terry Porter in February of 2009, the Suns went from having the sixth-best offense in the NBA to the best offense over their final 31 games.

The Pelicans need to show they can compete in the playoffs, or they need to blow up this roster and get Anthony Davis more help. The Brow’s unibrow can only support so much weight before it breaks.