The Wood Shop: Bronning Edition

When I think of a wood shop, I think of a place people go to contemplate things. Wood working happens in them for sure, but it’s really just a convenient hobby. It takes a long time to complete even a small piece of wood work, which means many trips to the shop to really examine the intricacies of life. This article is part of a continuing series where I take some aspect of this Cavalier team into the wood shop and hang out with it for a thousand or so words. My own personal Cavs Wood Shop.

Over the past two months, it’s safe to say we are seeing peak LeBron. He won player of the month in both February and March for the Eastern Conference.

His March numbers were good, but they weren’t mind blowingly different from the rest of his season. He put up 25.6 points (9.7-18.1) on 53.8% shooting to go along with 8.2 rebounds, 7.1 assists, and 1.1 steals. Looking at the season as a whole, including March, he averaged 25.3 points (9.7-18.6) while hitting 52% from the floor, grabbing 7.4 boards, dishing 6.8 assists, and swiping 1.4 steals. In March he hit 33.3% of the 3.4 3-pointers he attempted. For the season, he was just 30.9% on 3.7 deep balls a game.

In March, he was only shooting a little better, getting a rebound more every other game and getting an extra assist or two every few games. Yet, fellow Cavs bloggers, most die hard NBA fans, and even regular fans noticed something different about the King.

Cold, Calculated, and Crushing

Look at his shot chart for the whole season against his shot chart for just March.

LeBron’s full season shot chart.

LeBron’s month of March shot chart.

LeBron took 11.3% more of his shots at the rim in March, and he cut the number of mid-range shots he took by 9.2%. Something clicked for the King, and, it was a significant change. Gone were the six second post-up attempts for long twos. Gone were the high screens that resulted in long twos. He shot 68.2% at the rim in March. DeAndre Jordan shot 71.4% this season at the rim, and all he does is dunk and get put backs. He’s also a few inches taller than everyone too. The King is routinely facing centers trying to swat him and multiple guys crashing into the paint with the explicit goal of stopping him. LeBron’s impressive.

LeBron Does Everything Great

How the King transformed into the best form of himself will never be known. However, I think he discovered the NBA’s play specific stat page. Let’s dive into some of the NBA’s quirkiest stats for the regular season.

-As a ball handler in pick and rolls, LeBron is in the 78.6th percentile. He gets .88 points a possession when he takes it to the rack using a screen. He’s 16th in the league when you only include guys who have run a pick and roll more than 200 times.

-When James is the roll man in a pick and roll, he’s in the 95.4th percentile. He gets 1.35 points per roll to the rack. And, four of the eight guys who are ranked ahead of him have just 20 rolls to the rack.

-In post-ups this season, the King is averaging just .89 points per possession, which puts him in the 67.7th percentile. He’s still in the top fifty in the league when you exclude guys who have attempted less than 100 post-ups.

-As a cutter, James in the 79.1st percentile. He averages 1.39 points per shot he gets out of a cut to the rack, and he’s in the top ten of guys who have cut to the rim and tried to score more than 100 times this year.

-In transition situations the King is in the 86.9th percentile. He’s number one out of guys who have tried to score on the break more than 200 times, and he averages 1.32 points per possession when he jets it down the floor. That’s number one out of guys who met the criteria I used.

-And, in isolation situations, LeBron is in the 59th percentile. He averages just .85 points per iso-shot. He uses 19.2% of his possessions going solo, and that places him sixth in the league out of guys who have run more than 100 isos.

Those stats don’t necessarily stand out on their own, but to put them in context, it needs to be noted that there is no other guy who shows up on all of those lists near the top when the above limitations are punched in. Without making a crazy matrix to see which players appear on all of these charts, James Harden probably comes closest to LeBron in his variety of offensive abilities. He’s near the top for transition plays, isolation plays, ball handler plays, and post-up plays. He actually bests LeBron in all of those categories aside from transition action.

LeBron’s Big Realizations

I can imagine LeBron sitting at his desk with his computer opened up to all of those play specific stat pages. He probably has a Sprite in one hand and a mouse in the other. Yes, he has a desktop computer, because I always imagine rich people bucking the trend of having a hot laptop on their lap.

As he pours over those stats, probably on January 28th, a couple of days before he started up his two month stretch of peak Bronning, he made a simple realization. It’s one he has made a bunch of times in his career. “I can do everything on the court, but I probably shouldn’t. Maybe, I should do the things other guys aren’t great at.”

Here are some of the King’s statistical interpretations. Not one, not two, not three, but four conclusions.

1.“I don’t want to be rolling to the hoop all the time, I hate getting banged up. That’s TT’s job. TT gets 1.31 points per roll to the hoop and is right behind me percentile wise. And, Kyrie can’t run a pick and roll. I saw an article on that. Even in the playoffs ,he hasn’t figured it out. Look at this play. Timo has to fuss around setting a screen for Irving, and then KI just bombs a long 3-pointer. Probe the defense man. Let Mozzy roll.”

2.“Irving is a much better iso guy than me. He’s getting .95 points per iso. He’s also a better ball handler in pick and rolls averaging .89 points each go at the rim. He’s in the 80.3rd percentile. I can’t do crossovers like Uncle Drew. I should talk to Mav about getting me a Pepsi One deal, Irving drinks a two liter of it a day to get his dribbling powers.”

3.“On post-ups, Love is much better than me too, even without the moob action. I used to joke with him that he looked like the Michelin Man when he first came into the league… Okay, anyways, he’s 14th in the league among guys who have attempted at least 100 post-ups. He gets .99 points each try. Dirky Boy and LaMarcus are the only bigs beating him out on that list.”

4.“That leaves me, LeBron, as the Cavalier who should be running the break and cutting to the rim. Thankfully, those are actually the two of the three things I do best.”

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It’s really hard to figure out if LeBron is actually cutting to the rim more or getting out in transition, but I’m fairly confident he is. His shot chart would suggest he is merely because he is taking more shots at the rim and making more. What’s the easiest shot in the game? If you’re 260 pounds and move like lightening, it’s fast break dunks. However, there is some better evidence that he’s implementing his late night computer research.

Handling the Ball Less and Moving More

Working off the ball, means you’re moving. It also means you’re handling the ball less. The King is doing those two things.

Up until March the King would possess the ball for 5.1 minutes a night. He would dribble it an average of 3.09 times per touch.
In March, he held the ball just 4.9 minutes a game. He dribbled it just 2.68 times each time. He also got slightly less post touches (.3) and more paint touches (.2). That would suggest that he was playing off the ball a little more, freeing himself up to cut to the rack.

The King was also running in March. Yes, running. Up until March, LeBron would cover 1.24 miles on offense and was running at a rate of 4.06 mph. In March, he was jetting at 4.11 mph on offense and covering 1.19 miles a night. Those stats suggest two things. First off, the slight increase in speed could be the result of him flat out sprinting more often, which hints he got out on the break more. Secondly, the decrease in overall distance traveled means he made more purposeful movements. He didn’t back the ball out to go as hard as possible to the rim after dribbling.

Making Decisions Quickly

LeBron has also become much more decisive as a shooter. Early on in the season, I remember him often jab stepping for a few seconds before settling for a mid-range jumper. 35.5% of his shots came after holding the ball for six-plus seconds heading into March. He hit just 44.5% of them. In March, just 30.4% of his attempts came after holding the ball that long. Although, he hit just 37.7% of them. That drop in shooting percentage suggests that he only took those shots out of pure desperation when nothing developed offensively for the Cavs.

For March, he took 6.7% more of his shots after holding the ball less than two seconds and hit 3.6% more of them. This is a man who knows what he wants and how to get it.

The Joy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa52cYyJJoI

With the playoffs here, and the Cavs up one game on Detroit, I’m happy this form of LeBron has arrived. It’s clear that he’s playing better from just a shot selection stand point. He’s going crazy on the rim. I can’t say for certain that he’s getting there because of cuts and transition buckets, but just watch him play lately. He’s getting out on the break, and it’s statistically verifiable he’s working more without the ball. And, when he does have the ball, he’s making moves very quickly. This form of LeBron seems to be what he’s going to be throughout the playoffs. He scored 22 points on 9-17 shooting and dished out 11 assists in the first game against Detroit. Both Irving and Love scored more than him. The King knows where he’s needed offensively, and it’s not always trying to just score off individual effort these days.

*All stats from NBA.com*