Neon Dion – The First Month
2012-11-29
David Thorpe has assessed the rookies after one month and Dion didn’t make his top 10. Here’s what he had to say about Waiters:
“Dion Waiters, Cavaliers — Nov. 23: Waiters still looks like a more dribble-happy version of Marcus Thornton with a bigger upside. His raw numbers looked good against the Magic — he scored 25 points and dished out 5 assists with no turnovers. But I counted him shooting 3-for-10 on bad shots, meaning he missed seven times when he had far better options than what he chose: step-back 3s with time on the clock, a one-on-three transition drive and “hope” shot, and forced long jumpers.
During Cleveland’s recent five-game stretch, he made five shots per game and missed 12 per game, which is tough to swallow when Cleveland lost four of those games by close margins. If Waiters learns the value of good shot selection, he’ll see his shooting percentages go up while his team wins more games.”
Thoughts?
Hey D – nice comment. I confused everyone (myself included) when I tried to make effective FG% meaningful in that post. eFG = (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. So, someone like Boobie Gibson in 2007 would have had an high eFG since so many of his FG are 3s (which we sort of allow to be a lower %-age). So since I am talking about “inside shots” eFG = FG. So, comparing the players you mentioned, here are the FG%, or eFG% if you prefer on “inside shots” Harden: .614 Dywane Wade: .674 Tony Parker: .576 Monta Ellis:… Read more »
Mallory, I’m not attacking you. I’m not really attacking anything. I’m moreso thinking about the framing of this season and how it can be productive or unproductive. Thorpe cited a bad game he had where he forced up too much. Something we agree fully on. My point is that sometimes you have to excuse that on a game-by-game basis as a learning experience. After this run where he’s being unfairly asked to put an offensive load on his back (beyond the Andy role that’s been steady) he’s still shooting solid percentages from mid-range and 3. A contested Dion pull up… Read more »
Cols714….that “huge air of negativity around CtB” is just your perception and you’re reading into things the way you want to read into them. Are certain writers on this blog hyperbolic? Most certainly. Do they go to extremes from time to time? Of course. But not all of them. Thats why you focus on the ones you enjoy reading and not take anything that the ones you have an issue with get to you. You’ll be surprised how well that works out. I think that would go for KJ too but taking my own advice, I’ve tuned his comments out… Read more »
John Henson 6 pts 3.8 rebounds in 12 minutes a game.
Kyle Singler 9 pts 3 rebounds in 28 minutes a night
Brian Roberts 7.8ps 2 assts
Ande Drummond 6 pts 6 rbs
They all have okay PERs, but he clearly looked at a PER list and used that as rankings. Most of those guys play limited minutes vs backups. Dion goes nightly vs most teams best perimeter defender.
Stuff like this is how you tank any remaining credibility you may have as a writer.
ahaha I almost fell out of my chair when I read Singler, Roberts, and Henson
Tom I don’t like to answer stupid questions like this, but OK. If Dion wasn’t able to create his own shot, I’d be worried If Dion wasn’t able to get to the rim, I’d be worried If Dion hadn’t shown the ability to shoot decently from three, I’d be worried If Dion turned the ball over a ton, I’d be worried. None of these things has happened. The worst we can say is that perhaps he should be a bit smarter in shot selection and make a few more shots at the rim. Yet there is a huge air of… Read more »
Even more simply: does anything happening on the basketball court right now matter? What observable event would cause you to be critical?
Tom
I don’t know why you are trying to draw a distinction between actively work to improve and it might just happen.
Actively working to improve is usually how things happen. I don’t get what you are trying to say.
This is not an impossible question. I’m asking you what you would have to see happen for any criticism to be warranted. I think we can all stop fighting with you if you just say “Guys, NOTHING that happens is going to make me think a negative thought. I don’t need to see ANYTHING discernible this season to be happy. As far as I’m concerned, the team could lose every game from here on out by double digits and I know they are destined for greatness because they are young and it’s only age that needs to change (and I… Read more »
All I have to say about this is that I liked Dion on June 28th and essentially nothing about my opinion on him has changed.
He needs to improve more than a “bit” from 37%. He also needs to improve his off-ball defense more than a “bit”
If he truly wants to be a star, he’ll need to do serious work on rebounds and assists as well. He has all the potential to get there. He’s not nearly as close as you seem to think, and the improvements aren’t nearly as easy or guaranteed either.
no one is saying he won’t improve. But he’ll have to improve a lot just to become a JR Smith.
Kyrie – i’ve also noticed his on-ball defense is “better”. I put that in quotes because I’m a terrible observer of defense. (We need Nate’s take). But he is certainly working very hard at that end and he is getting a healthy amount of steals. I think he will definitely crack the top 10 by the end of the year. He will be helped a lot by Kyrie being healthy. He’s pressing a lot right now, but that’s good. I’m glad he’s going through the gauntlet and nothing is coming easy from him. Hopefully he doesn’t read this blog or… Read more »
Setting up impossible questions for me to answer is dumb.
What’s more likely that Waiters improves his game the bit that needs it and becomes a star, or he continues this path and becomes JR Smith?
I’m going with improves.
It’s the end of an era gentlemen. Harangody was waived today. The guy got a million to sit court side for 14 games. ‘Merica!
Sorry if i think shooting percentage from our supposed #2 option (#1 option with kyrie out) is an important stat. The guy was drafted to be a well rounded scorer, yes, but still a scorer. Rookies do struggle shooting, but most can at least get to 40%. Only truely terrible Daniel Gibson types finish at the rim as poorly as waiters has. He’s young, he’s learning, its a small sample. All valid points. But if we are judging the rookies of the year today, many other rookies have been doing more to earn their teams W’s than Dion’s good on… Read more »
Cols – is there a limit to the depth of your optimism? For example, is CJ Miles “alarming”? Where’s your line in the sand? When does something become critique-able? If right now Waiters was shooting 50% on 3s, would your projection be the same for his career? Or does the b in Y = mx+b just go up, in other words, he’s going to finish his career an 60% 3 point sniper because anyone given time just magically adds like 20% to everything positive and subtracts 30% from everything negative. After that Clippers win I thought “man, Dion can get… Read more »
Cols, if you have problems with my supposed negativity (I prefer to call it perceptiveness) feel free to ignore anything I say. I wont take it personally.
MF
Your negative comments and podcasting has been evident all season long. I’m not the only one to point this out. But you got me, you never claimed that Dion has no future in the NBA. I have also never claimed that you claimed this. We can do this all day.
Cols –
I don’t know what your obsession is with me, but it’s starting to creep me out.
I’ll give you $1000 if you can find one single point where I claim that I think Dion has no future in the NBA. Really.
Isaac No, not every player from college has this. Most college players come into the NBA and realize that they can’t get off shots because they are no longer quicker and more athletic than the competition. What Dion has shown is that he is quicker and more athletic than most of the competition. This is a special skill. And yes, I and everybody else (except for Mallory I guess) understands that of course we are looking at his potential. It would be dumb and stupid to whine about his play as of right now and not look and see that… Read more »
Mallory: Nice SI post. As for the step back J, it’s not a bad shot when the offense is breaking down, but that’s really the only other time, unless one is very very good at it. Mid-range J’s are also a bad shot unless one can convert a high percentage. There’s few guards that are: Mo Williams and Rip Hamilton come to mind. The most efficient shots are 3s and shots at the rim. The least effective shots are long 2s early in the shot clock against a set defense. Why? Because they eschew a higher percentage shot and the… Read more »
Cols714, EVERY NBA wing has the following, or appears to out of college: 1. Awesome athletic ability – Check 2. Shows ability to shoot well from the outside – Check, but needs to work on his consistency. 3. Shows the ability to get to the rim – Check 4. Has good ball handling skills – Check 5. Doesn’t turn the ball over – Check What Tom is saying is that it is the refinements that they make, and the ability to be that bit better, to take good shots at the right time, that separates the plethora of mediocre wings… Read more »
You know what, Jason Kidd’s PER is north of 21 right now. Obviously we should try to work out a deal with to trade Waiters for him since, you know, he’s performing better right now. I’ll bet if you tried to rank guards Kidd would be at least 20 spots higher than Waiters right now. So clearly, in conclusion, and judging by what everyone on this blog is obviously advocating for, let’s just trade Waiters already. I know Mallory wants that, I’m convinced that there is no distinction between actual production and future potential. Let’s do it.
Mat, you figured me out. I’ve been subliminally forcing Dion to become Pargo*(edited). No wonder he stinks! Mwahahahaha
I guess I don’t find it alarming that his shooting percentage is low. Most NBA guards improve their shooting percentages as they play you know, more than 15 games.
I think that focusing on a low shooting percentage for a rookie NBA guard 15 games in is pretty short sighted. Not quite as short sighted as signing Derek Fisher would have been, but close.
What you want out of your rookie guard 1. Awesome athletic ability – Check 2. Shows ability to shoot well from the outside – Check, but needs to work on his consistency. 3. Shows the ability to get to the rim – Check 4. Has good ball handling skills – Check 5. Doesn’t turn the ball over – Check Things to fix 1. Finish better at the rim – This should be very easy for someone as seemingly creative and athletic as Waiters 2. Shoot better from the outside – Also easy as long as you have decent shooting form.… Read more »
lol @ mat. How did no one notice Mallory’s negative subliminal messages!?
And before Kj accuses someone else of “moving the goal posts inexorably towards his argument” here is the singular distinction that needs to be made. ACTUAL VS POTENTIAL. If we IGNORE the potential completely and focus only on the actual, then we are focusing on the present. If we ignore or distort what is actually happening, then we are not responding to analysis. David Thorpe (who DOES overrate his own workout guys) was not writing a redraft or ranking potential. He was ranking now. Right now, Dion Waiters is shooting 37% from the field. If he brings it up to… Read more »
That’s not Waiters in that picture, that’s Jeremy Pargo
“As for the finishing thing. I swear, I sometimes feel like some of you don’t actually watch the games. He is ALREADY finishing better right now then earlier in the season. Yes, he can get even better but if you actually watch CLOSELY he really seems to be adjusting and finishing better.” – Kj Dion Waiters “inside” shots: eFG (that’s EFFECTIVE, not even just FG%): 37%. That is putrid. Fortunately, everyone in Cleveland (and on CtB) loves Waiter’s potential. The coach loves him, the GM loves him, we all love him, and some of us pretty much just rave about… Read more »
KJ is right about one thing, Dion is definitely shooting better at the rim now than he was earlier in the season. He created and converted two nice shots near the basket during the Phoenix game that definitely reminded me of Wade.
It s ASININE to fixate on one freakin’ stat like FG% as KyrieSwIrving is. Rookies struggle to shoot! Except Kyrie. Rookies also turnover the ball like mad. But Dion doesn’t. Great passer, good defender with high steals numbers in comparison with his class. Better than advertised 3 point shooter. Tough. Unafraid if the moment. Good Christ, he has exceeded expectations and is playing at least as well as any rookie not named Lillard!!
Dion’s per 36minute numbers are incredibly similar to JR Smith’s rookie numbers. Except with a worse shooting percentage. That’s why you might worry about him being a chucker.
Kyrieswing, Sessions was an awful facilitator for the Cavs unti about 2 months before he was traded. It was commented on by the Cavs broadcast crew nearly nightly. Seriously anyone who watched Sessions early in his Cavs tenure cringed at us a k of PG skills or even basic feel for facilitating. Mostly useless drives into the middle of the defense… I know about the finishing numbers and I knew someone would bring those up but Dion has gotten better. He has learned, for instance, how to blow by the big man trailing him and getting the ball up on… Read more »
Once again
There is no problem with being critical. It’s being critical while also being relentlessly negative about players improving.
The key is that he is showing tons of ability. The key is not that he hasn’t put it all together. Who the heck expected Waiters to be a finished product this season let alone the first month or two of this season?
No one. That’s why I don’t get the nonstop criticisms from MF. It’s like he expected Waiters and Irving to be SuperStars right out of the box. That just doesn’t happen.
Cols, the early returns are a 3-12 record and 37% shooting from the field. Neither of those are positive in the present. The future is still bright, and he certainly has flashed all-star potential, but the early returns have been nothing close to all-star or even decent starter level. I get that he’s young and will improve, so does mallory. But honestly, I had high expectations for waiters, and while he hasn’t shattered my dreams, he hasn’t blown me away with anything I didn’t expect from him enough to make up for the fact that the guy hits 37% from… Read more »
Thorpe has been kind of anti-Waiters since the draft. I don’t think he necessarily has a vendetta against a 20 year-old, but he may want to look right all along. Hard to explain what I mean by that. As mentioned earlier, if he starts finishing at the rim and getting 4-6 free throws a night he’ll be averaging like 22 points a game. I’m still on board with Waiters and would rather have him than anyone who came after him. Here’s Thorpe’s Top Ten if any of you don’t have Insider: 1. Damian Lillard 2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 3. Jonas Valanciunas… Read more »
Please note, I did not make comment in all caps above.
I think this is pretty positive from SI and gets it about right. Remember we are talking about 15 games into his rookie season. “There’s some fun two-way potential for Waiters and Irving to work off one another, and the roots of their fledgling chemistry are already apparent. The relationship is a bit stilted at this point, as Waiters is often too preoccupied with barreling toward the rim to actually read the passing lanes created by his drives. But with both players capable of initiating the offense and knocking down spot-up looks on the weak side (Waiters has converted an… Read more »
LOUD NOISES ABOUT HOW INCREDIBLE ALL CAVS PLAYERS ARE/WILL BECOME
KJ, no way is Dion a better facilitator than sessions, thats crazy talk. And you mention he takes 3 or 4 bad shots some games, I have only watch half the games, but he seems to be hitting that mark every game (though not going over), which is a lot. No one should take 3 or 4 contested jumpers with 12+ seconds on the shot clock every game. And as much as you say he’s finishing better, you must mean asthetically, because its not showing up in made buckets. His finishing at the rim percentage hasn’t climbed at all in… Read more »
MF
Did Dion Waiters steal your girlfriend or boyfriend in high school or something?
Here’s another critique of Waiters from SI –
http://nba.si.com/2012/11/28/nba-rookies-dion-waiters-jared-sullinger/
Demetrius – the problem isn’t that he takes step back jumpers, it’s that he takes them with 15 seconds on the clock, While he’s being covered. I have no problem with taking high percentage shots, but there are times where he simply lets it fly too quickly. If you don’t see that, then you’re overlooking a flaw in his game intentionally. That’s not to say he can’t correct it, and to a certain degree I agree it’s a good time to learn when to use his arsenal of weapons, but the guy really is taking some blatantly stupid shots. I… Read more »
KyrieSwIrving I totally understand that not all rookies reach their potential. However, MF II seems to harbor some weird hatred toward Waiters. He’s the only one who thinks that Waiters takes tons of bad shots. He’s basically the only one here who thinks that Waiters won’t get any better or is doubtful it will happen. These statements are being made after about a month of play. Meanwhile everyone keeps pointing out that maybe Waiters isn’t taking that many bad shots, that it’s likely his shooting percentage is going to rise as he gets more experience and learns how to play… Read more »
Tom, no one said Hollingers Rankings are the end all be all. Clearly the playoffs are a different animal. (A fact that actually makes me closer to wanting to trade Andy, where his hustle and non-stop motor don’t differentiate himself from the rest of the guys on the court as much) and if he predicted them perfectly no one would bet on playoff games. That said, the winners of the last few championships have all been toward the top of his rankings, and his ranking most assuredly DO have the lakers comfortably in the playoffs. I’d be more concerned about… Read more »
Wow. I have a helluva typo in there! Commence the jokes! Damn…
The biggest myth in the world is that Dion takes bad shots. I mean, first of all is there ANY more subjective measure in the known universe than “bad shots?” This is a complete hang-over from Dion’s summer league performance and is the kind if lazy sports journalism I despise, whether it come from Thorpe or Pluto. I focus on his shot selection every game and never seen him take more than 3, maybe 4, bad shits in any game so far. And I’ve watched every minute of Dion’s play. Has Thorpe? Doubt it. As for the finishing thing. I… Read more »
I’d really love to see what percentage of Dion’s shots come during certain time frames. I don’t think he takes as many early pull-up jumpers as people think.
Mallory..sometimes stepbacks are great shots. DWade, Brandon Roy and a host of other 2 guards made a living on those. If he’s going to hit in the low 40%’s on those then by all means fire a few up. That’s a scoring skill that a coach wouldnt want to quell in an iso scorer. Also he can learn to draw fouls on the perimeter with that move and keep his defender on his hip for dribble drives. That step back is a weapon, not a bad habit. Finding out how and when to use it is exactly what he should… Read more »
Kyrie – you know what i don’t care at all about Hollinger’s Power Rankings? Because the regular season is a different animal than the playoffs. For 2 straight years the Cavs were the BEST team in hollinger’s power rankings and he predicted they would win the finals, and they didn’t. It’s great that you think being 21st is good – you must have had pretty low expectations. I would say that’s about what I expected and it’s a bummer. Also, they are meaningless this early in the season. For example, people are constantly questioning whether the Lakers will MISS the… Read more »
Cols, NOT EVERY ROOKIE REACHES THEIR POTENTIAL. What part of pointing out flaws, areas for improvement, and concern about red flags don’t you get? His show selection is a legitimate concern. So is his inability to finish. He’s always had questionable shot selection dating to syracuse, and he never had to finish over athletic 7 footers and NBA-talent wings every night in college. Simply pointing out a few reasons to be optimistic doesn’t gaurantee that the problem is of no concern. To look at waiters and ignore all the bad stuff and just project the good stuff is silly. Any… Read more »
Amen Swirving. I think the Cavs have to (and will) make a move at some point this season. We’ll see how that goes.
And Cols – no one is saying he wont get better. These are all just initial returns.
shooting 37% from the field for a 3-12 team will limit how people view your talents.
I definitely wouldn’t put Lillard above him, Barnes perhaps.
And MF II
THIS IS HIS ROOKIE YEAR THAT HE”S PLAYED ALL OF 1 MONTH OR SO.
What part of players getting better as they gain experience don’t you get?
Wait, Dion didn’t make the top TEN?
I don’t have insider, who in the world outside of Lillard, MKG, Davis, and Barnes did he put ahead of him?
Beal? Drummond? Lol?
oh btw, Have you guys seen that, even with as bad as we’ve been, the Cavs are still 21st on Hollinger’s statistical driven power rankings? I guess playing a brutal schedule like we have should temper expectations on results a bit, and we really have been in most of our games in the 4th quarter so far.
To add on, the reason why this worries me so much is wild shooters are pretty hard to tame. At the pro level, shot selection is key (duh) and it’s easy, especially on a bad team, to get into horrible habits. He’s really athletic, but instead of using his athleticism, he often looks like he just wants to shoot immediately. That’ll be hard to train out of him.
As I’ve said, I have one major concern. Thorpe is right about the shot selection. To echo Nate, he pulls up WAY too often for dumb shots early in the clock. This is probably my biggest concern, as it might mean he’s a chucker. I actually think he’s played better without Kyrie than when he was playing with him – he’s looking to drive far more than before. That being said, he NEEDS to stop with the step back jumpers.
Brian
That seems about right. The best thing about Waiters and Irving is that they have that great ability to get to the rim. Having two guys like that is going to be great.
His shooting will improve, it was pretty decent in college so I don’t think he’ll have too many problems there.
Honestly, His problem is on finishing. That’s why we got him. The D-Wade comparisons. Like people have said, his 3’s are as good as could be expected, and hitting his mid range shot (which is being crucified as poor shot selection) at 41% is probably his most noteworthy accomplishment at this point. If Waiters did everything he is currently doing but could actually finish near the rim he’d be in conversation for the top spot on this list, no doubt. I’m not super concerned, because the guy finished them in college, and he gets there a lot and doesn’t get… Read more »
It’s hard to believe that he won’t improve at finishing over time, he gets there too well. I think he makes his mind up on how he’s going to finish too soon and the shot is bothered by the defender. I’m hoping once he’s comfortable with the size and speed of the NBA, he’ll open up and be a little more creative at the rim. Above all I’d like to see him get that down this season and then work on his shot in the off-season.
Has anyone else noticed that Dion has a weird hitch in his shot? He “turns” or rotates off a pivot foot into the shot, rarely going straight up. He even does it at the free throw line sometimes. I think it’s part of the reason he’s so good pulling up from the left baseline, but I think it effects his shooting percentage, especially on set shots. It’s also why he seems at an angle a lot of times when pulling up. He definitely doesn’t seem to shoot with his shoulders square. He does get a lot of elevation on his… Read more »
I’ll just second Hot Sauce’s comment. And add that he has to get better finishing.
Dion does dribble a lot. But that is because BScott’s offense is centered around penetrating guards creating offense for others. With Kyrie out, Dion has an enormous burden for a rookie, and is clearly being asked to control the ball and the offense. Given that, I don’t think his “dribbling” is a problem – he is doing what the team needs. His current problem is definitely his over reliance on deep jumpers. But his decision making in the P-n-R, and off the dribble, is really really great. I see tons of upside as he matures. By far the best choice… Read more »
Thorpe couches all of what he says in who is working out with him and what he thinks of players’ demeanor so you have to take his “rankings” with caution but his actual analysis is usually ok. My gripe with his comments about Dion is the constant Marcus Thornton comparison. As it relates to scoring ability in general it makes sense. I’m not mad at that comparison because Thornton is a clear 18 a game scorer if given the green light. Dion doesnt show the lethargic on-ball defense and tunnel-vision scoring that Thornton does though. Dion’s handle and vision are… Read more »
I also think it’s too negative…and I don’t really see how Dion is dribble-happy- I think he’s been pretty quick and decisive- and that one move he does on the right wing that’s basically a quick jabstep/fake to the middle of the court before the dribble drive? Beautiful
Guys I have no worries about:
1. Kyrie Irving, yes I know the defense, he’s young it will come around
2. Andy V. (I can never spell his last name), he looks great
3. Dion Waiters, looks like a scorer who will only get better
This is why I’m excited about this Cavs team.
Seems way too negative.
I love Dion’s game. The shooting percentage will go up, no worries at all about him.
And in regards to the “more dribble-happy Marcus Thornton” comment, frankly, I find that absurd considering I’ve never seen a player who appears to love dribbling more than Thornton does. And while Dion may sometimes take some ill-advised shots (for which I can’t really blame him given that, with Irving out, he’s really the only player that can effectively create for himself), he’s a better facilitator than Thornton ever has been.
Also, these rankings are dumb, and pointless, and dumb. We’re a month into the season.
I take everything Thorpe says with a grain of salt. He very clearly pimps guys that he works out (i.e. they are PAYING him), thus everything he says is invalidated by that bias.
Remember, this is the same guy that said Tristan Thompson was the 2nd best rookie from last year’s class. I’m a Cavs fan, but that insulted my intelligence. (And guess who got paid to work out Tristan Thompson? That’s right, David Thorpe.)