Trends, Ranks, and Outliers
2012-12-05“It’s early.” Repeat that 3x. Of course with time: trends, ranks, and outliers become less noisy and more meaningful. Trends level off, ranks become more stable between games, and outliers become more impressive. Here’s a few that I researched after a little quiet reflection.
Trending: UPWARD.
Omri Casspi and positive adverbs can stand to be in the same room with each other lately. Now, I can only count on one hand the number of times I have been forced to pay attention to Omri Casspi on a basketball court since Kyrie Irving had his suit drycleaned. However, almost every one of those times I saw something positive. He looks like a walk-on playing defense – earning every minute he gets. (It’s quaint) He seems to be a three point threat, even though a few of the shots have the body language of “this could be my last chance – better make it count”. You could make the case that Casspi’s NBA career has been in decline since he arrived on the scene. But this year might be different. Casspi’s production in general seems to be trending back up. Specifically his 3PFG% the last 11 games looks like this.
a healthy 18/36 on the year
If he can keep his 3PFG% above even 40% that would be an asset for this shooting-deficient team (assuming he gets more playing time – something that many on this blog have advocated). The Cavaliers have no shortage of 3 point gunners, but are lacking in marksmen (at least so far this year). We’ll check back with Casspi at a later date. There are some harbingers that he’s on the up and up.
"I don't always google my name, but when I do, I make sure safesearch is on." - CJ MILES the most interesting man on the Cavs bench
Ranks: Dead last, 6th Worst
Is there anything more irritating than a guy shooting contested jump shots off the dribble and missing? Repeatedly. With no course correction. This irritant alienated one fan so much that he blessed the world with this url: http://heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com/.
I think we need to find that guy and ask him to author:
http://heycjmilespleasetrysomethingdifferentperhapsspottingupforthreeortryingtodrawfouls.com/.
I had high hopes for CJ Miles. At least until my buddy Wes (@WesEarick) prophesied to me that CJ Miles would be the Cavs 2nd leading scorer. Given my history debating Wes on NBA topics I had this premonition that CJ Miles was headed for a Lamar Odom-like deterioration. (He once said Wilson Chandler was a future MVP) I was looking over Miles’ season stats and one thing that I found particularly jaw-dropping was his 4 FTA to 89 FGA. Wasn’t this guy supposed to be a pseudo-slasher? I swear I’ve seen a youtube video of him dunking OVER people. At the very least, he seems to have some competency putting his head down and driving. So what the heck? As it turns out, Miles career FTA to FGA is around .2, meaning, he shoots 1 free throw for every 5 shots. For comparison’s sake – Alonzo Gee’s career FTA:FGA ratio is .37, almost twice as high. So clearly, getting to the rack and drawing a whistle isn’t his strong suit. For the irrationally-optimistic Cavs fans out there I guess we could argue that “CJ Miles just hates flopping” or something. But 4 for 89? That’s GOT to be the worst mark in the league right? Actually no, that record belongs to San Antonio’s Matt Bonner who has yet to attempt a freebie despite 47 FGA. Once I saw this I was challenged, as Matt Bonner can be pretty valuable. But my preconception was/is that having a respectable FTA:FGA ratio is a sign of a good player, especially for a wing. It’s a little more complicated than that, but so far this year, if an NBA player had a higher than league average FTA:FGA ratio his Win Share/48 minutes would also be higher than average. Obviously the corollary is that owning a less than league average FTA:FGA ratio would have a lower than league average WS/48. There’s no succinct (sorry RickOH) way to describe the relationship between FTA:FGA and WS/48. But I think the visualization is kinda neat. So I put one together here:
[ https://docs.google.com/open?id=0Bxo35h7IHewyNGhXY1poeVhYMUk ]
Click on the 100% thing to blow it up and then use the arrow keys to scroll along. The dotted red line is the league average WS/48, and the vertical red arrow is the range. The dotted blue line is the league average for FTA:FGA and the vertical blue line is the range (which is quite more dynamic). [A quick note on everything to do with league related statistics: I filter out all players with less than 150 minutes at this juncture.] Draw your own conclusions from the data, but, on average, it doesn’t pay to have a very low FTA:FGA ratio unless you are an elite spot up shooter or have some other ways to contribute. So CJ Miles is the worst in the league in WS/48 and 6th worst in FTA:FGA. I think he needs to drastically change both of those ranks immediately. Actually I think he needs to draw some fouls and hit a few quiet set shots from the stripe to calm the heck down. Getting to the rim should could open things up for him a bit more – making him harder to defend. He needs to change SOMETHING especially if Wes’s “2nd leading scorer” prediction has any hope of materializing. (Although that would be all the proof you need that the Mayans were, in fact, right).
From Oct 30th chat
Outliers: Tristan Thompson’s Block Party
Yes, this title in intended to inflame the masses. Honestly, it’s the Cavs entire team that is partying, it just seems wrong to have it anywhere other that TT’s house. I’ve never seen anything quite like this. I knew the Cavs were getting stuffed at the rim a lot. But I had no idea how prolific they are at it. I was also aware that TT’s blocks (the ones where he blocks the OTHER guy) were down from last year. Digging a little deeper, I learned that the Cavs are worst in the NBA in getting blocked (not completely surprised) but also worst in the league at wagging the finger (a little surprised). The Cavs block differential? That is our outlier of the day – and it. is. BREATHTAKING. For the full effect, click on the image, and then click on it again to get the full screen.
The Cavs block differential (-99) is more than DOUBLE the next worst team – Golden State(-48), who has played without Andrew Bogut for all but 73 minutes this season. Let that sink in. I think we can safely tar and feather the next person that utters something along the lines of “Tristan Thompson can be our Serge Ibaka”.
I’ve noticed a lot more negativity in the comments section than in the articles.
Fear the Sword has been pretty great lately.
Fear the Sword had a hilarious article earlier this week that was i’m assuming born out of the twitter campaign #disservicetofans that I believe @conradkaczmarek started on Sunday night (i partook in the pile on).
It’s a great article and I wish I would have thought of the idea for the post first. Here’s the ending commentary:
“I’m sure I’ve either forgotten or repressed like 80 other terrible Cavalier moments”
Then go read Fear The Sword, Kj. As for Cols714, I happen to be on your side in one way. I, too, think that Mallory is Satan incarnate! Let’s burn ‘im.
Tom, you are basically unable to take criticism, arevdeendivecabd thin-skinned and not a very effective debater. This post however, was a good one. Kudos where deserved.
I don’t know why you insist in pretending this blog, save for Hentrick, is almost completely skewed towards the negative. I would like to see Kevin or someone who has time analyze the blog to determine the level of negativity. It is unquestionably higher than say, Fear The Sword or WFNY, and certainly no more “smarter” than those blogs. Your protests to the contrary reek of a Fox News-level delusion, Tom…
I did not realize that people loved Mike Brown so much.
He had a team with LeBron and a team with Kobe. Both teams ended up firing him. Sounds like he’s a bit overrated here.
@Brian – yeah, Grant is Ferry’s protege, in fact, that is the only reason I’m comfortable with him right now. On Brown/Scott – I you are absolutely right Byron is preferable to Brown on Irving and Waiter’s development.
@Tom I like Mike Brown but I’m not crying over it because Byron Scott seems like the perfect choice to be coaching the tandem of Irving and Waiters. I think we’ll be a pretty fun team to watch. I do worry about Dion getting burned out on Scott eventually. As for Ferry vs Grant, pretty impossible to say as we’ve never seen Danny draft in the lottery and probably won’t any time soon. Grant was kind of his protege though right? I do think he’s inherited Ferry’s patience/discipline and comes up with beneficial trades. He’s done a good job so… Read more »
@Cols – The world must look very simple to you. Dion is incredible, Mallory is evil, Mike Brown is a failure… I can’t even begin to be bothered with the first two topics, I think you’ve shown plenty that you are incapable of rational thought, but I’m not sure I can let the Mike Brown comment stand: In 5 years of coaching, he took us to the NBA f*king finals, which is damned weird for someone who “couldn’t figure out the playoffs”, the conference finals once, and the conference semi’s 3 times. That’s the worst he ever did: second round… Read more »
So Cols, I took a step back and tried my best to evaluate your “criticism” of this blog. I really did. Here’s what I’ve noticed today. [To Mallory] “I think you should lose your writing license for a little bit.” – Cols “I think that Mallory’s response is exactly why people are frustrated with this blog.” – Cols “Do you want me to start every statement with “we’re young and we’re getting better, but…”? I can, if that’ll help. For better or worse, we’re not very good now.” – Mallory “Really I’m just asking why the authors of the blog… Read more »
Cols – Mike Brown won 60 games in back to back season with a (now) supposedly crap roster. He went 8-0 in the playoffs and won every game by double digits and then the Magic caught fire. You know what that sounds exactly like? The Spurs last season. Going gangbusters on everyone until Serge Ibaka went 47 for 47 on 20 foot jumpers and the Thunder played so out of their minds I (as well as a bunch of others – including Bill Simmons and John Hollinger) thought the Spurs were going to win the TITLE. And they didn’t even… Read more »
So far I’d say that Gilbert has been extremely patient. While some fans who write for a blog wished that they would have gone out and gotten a bunch of free agents to play this year so they would maybe make the playoffs, they instead played it smart. This way once they figure out where they need help over the next few years they have plenty of cap room to sign guys. I was worried that Gilbert was going to go crazy in FA after LeBron left and he wrote that nutty letter. But he’s been remarkably sane. The nice… Read more »
I’m unsure of Byron Scott. But I think it’s safe to say that Mike Brown at this point is a failure. He couldn’t figure out the NBA playoffs when they had LeBron and then he completely blew it in LA when he had a chance to redeem himself.
Ferry seems like a good executive, but so does Chris Grant. Might be a wash between those two guys.
I’m guessing that Byron Scott won’t be around for too long, maybe one more year after this?
@Brian – yep – we are of the same thought. I will say (and I think I am alone on this one) that Gilbert made a poor long term decision when he demanded Mike Brown be fired and immediately tried to find a coach LeBron would have liked. I mean, we were THIS CLOSE to having Tom Izzo or someone totally unproven be the next coach of the franchise. I’m not going to cast my judgement on Byron Scott yet, but if you isolate out everything LeBron-related, I think Mike Brown and Danny Ferry are better suited to run an… Read more »
@Tom, Yeah, I agree the coddling was inconsequential. I just think it’s easier to put the blame on Lebron because he was immature and not particularly likeable. But the thing to keep in mind was that he was just a kid. Sure he was an adult for the decision (so stupid I hate even calling it that) but the organization set things in motion out of fear of an 18 year old. I don’t mind the bending over backwards for him, that’s fine; it’s just unfortunate that it extended to making roster changes that damaged the foundation that needed to… Read more »
I agree Cols, I skip over all MF’s articles and comments…If I didn’t I would have stopped reading this blog a long time ago..
Cols – I’m not going through this with you again. Much of the time you are not constructively criticizing anyone. You are just disagreeing and then lamenting it and then demanding we stop having our opinions or Mallory go away. For a while it was irritating but now it’s actually comical. Maybe you can take my “criticism” and limit your “I can’t stand these writers” remarks. I think some non-writers have suggested it to you as well. Feel free to disagree with anything that is posted – that’s why we have a comment section. When half of the comments are… Read more »
@Scuzz – yes, please do check it out and let me know what you think. https://cavstheblog.com//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////?p=14046 I didn’t so much predict when the Cavs would be ready to contend as I did argue that Varejao isn’t showing any typical signs associated with the NBA’s rapid after 30 decline. His entire career seems time shifted by about 4 years. His start, his contracts, and now he’s maybe a year into his prime at age 30, not age 26. So I have no reason to believe that he’s going to just be a shell of his former self before he puts up… Read more »
Really
I’m just asking why the authors of the blog are so sure that the Cavs suck while most fans and commenters think that generally things are going OK. There is no other Cavs blog that has been nearly as negative as this one. Perhaps, instead of yelling about me commenting (on your blog, you should be happy for the traffic) you should reevaluate how you look at the team.
Can’t take the criticism huh?
Cols, can we cap your “the writers are so negative and it’s ruining everything” posts to like 4 – maybe even 3 a day? If you can agree to a limit to this madness I assure you I can manage comment deletion once you’ve reached your threshold. I’ll even notify you when your balance is low. That way you won’t even have to take responsibility for your trolling. Oh and there’s no fee for overdraft – again, I’ll just kindly “manage” it.
So CJ Miles? No one else floored that he has 89 FGA and only 4 FT?
The divide between the writers on the blog who think the Cavs suck and will suck forever and the commenters who think the Cavs are going in the right direction is pretty startling.
@Tom
I didn’t get a chance to read your article, but I will.
I think the most interesting point they made (and perhaps you did as well), was how the Cavs could become competitive again quickly. After this season, they will be 30 mil under the cap. Even more, dependent on what they do with Casspi, Miles, and Leuer. If Gilbert and Grant are planning to go into free agency next season to try and build a winner, they definitely should keep Andy.
@Scuzz – I love that article. If I would have known SI was going to put that out I wouldn’t have written my Don’t Trade Varejao article a few weeks ago. They are using the exact same (correct) logic.
Win % – it’s actually .56 but I rounded. But yeah, the argument is sort of moot. For the time being, we’re just not very good. Sad, but true.
I guess it’s not obvious how much better(/worse?) this team is after adjusting for tank mode and injuries (although it’s worth noting that the Cavs this year are, again, being uber-conservative in terms of injuries and making *ahem* questionable personnel decisions at times).
I’ll stop arguing, but one last question:
“You can cherry pick numbers and score, but a .06 difference isn’t much – certainly not at the level of markedly different. Miniscule? Maybe.”
Where does the .06 number come from? I’m totally confused as to where this came from. Yes, it’s miniscule, but what is it?
@Brian – gotcha. Yeah I get what you are saying. He’s not free of blame. You know what I’m talking about though, right? The DAY the decision happened so many wanted to crucify Gilbert for ‘coddling’ LeBron. It’s total bs. Those same people would have been writing huge WTF CLEVELAND?! articles if Gilbert had tried to play tough guy with LeBron over the years. The reality is, The Cavs bent over backwards for LeBron and did everything they could given the circumstances.
Disclaimer: the article also lists several trade options at the end. A few of them seem a little far-fetched. The main point though, is why the Cavs shouldn’t trade him.
Scuzz
Good article, Thanks!
I’m coming around to the idea of not trading Andy. Usual caveats of unless they get an offer they can’t refuse, etc.
I’m not sure if anyone else posted this or not, but SI had an interesting article on Varejao and his trade value.
http://nba.si.com/2012/12/04/anderson-varejao-trade-cleveland-cavaliers/?sct=nba_t13_a0
Mallory – I just think he needs more minutes. He’s got a hand hand right now the Cavs should give him more time. You may recall my “biggest disappointment” in that podcast was watching Hickson play passable basketball because at the time (this was after a rather poor start to the season – again see chart above) I thought that Casspi might not be a part of the future. But he’s a young guy. If he can keep doing what he’s doing now and gets more minutes – that’s a valuable 7th or 8th guy off the bench. So I… Read more »
Yeah
I sort of expect that young players get better. It’s when they don’t that it’s surprising.
Comment monster ate my comment. Hopefully I’m not double posting this: @Tom Regarding Gilbert and Lebron. For all of Lebron’s faults (and I agree with you that he didn’t make it easy on the F.O with a lot of his tactics), ultimately it wasn’t his team to run, and that’s where I think Gilbert screwed the pooch. That panic basically killed our chances at multiple championships. And you’re right, it’s easy to say that in hindsight. At the time I didn’t have a problem with it. It seemed like the most important thing was to make sure Lebron stayed. But… Read more »
Tom –
I vaguely remember us having already played him at PF a bit – if my memory serves me correctly it didn’t work well. I think eventually he could learn to defend fine as long as whoever he’s up against isn’t a serious post threat. He runs hard, though, and certainly seems to care on both ends. Also, he rebounds well for a SF who doesn’t play a ton, so I guess it’d be possible. He just doesn’t have much bulk.
@Tom Regarding Gilbert and Lebron. For all of Lebron’s faults (and I agree with you that he didn’t make it easy on the F.O with a lot of his tactics), ultimately it wasn’t his team to run, and that’s where I think Gilbert screwed the pooch. That panic basically killed our chances at multiple championships. And you’re right, it’s easy to say that in hindsight. At the time I didn’t have a problem with it. It seemed like the most important thing was to make sure Lebron stayed. But I think its fair to expect a professional organization if its… Read more »
It’s an advent miracle! I’m running with this. Ok, Cols, when you say “is totally expected” did you mean “nothing surprising” or did you mean you actually expected him to be among the league leaders in 3PFG% when he’s never done that before? When you say players get better all the time does that mean that you were surprised LAST YEAR when Casspi regressed from the previous? What, in your opinion is different between this year and last year for Casspi? Mallory – I completely agree. I think it was Colin or Nate on our podcast a few weeks back… Read more »
I think that Omri Casspi improving is totally expected. Players get better all the time.
Love what I’ve seen from Casspi the last few games. Brings some serious energy/size/strength/D that we’ve been sorely missing. If his shot starts falling a bit more consistently, he’ll make a great bench SF.
Only concern is that he’s not the kind of guy who can survive playing 12 minutes a night. The more we play him, the better he’s been.
@Grover – TT’s got to do something different around the hoop. Has he ever tried dunking with one hand and using his other arm to absorb the contact – giving himself the separation he needs to not get blocked.
So Mallory thinks that the Cavs team from two years ago is better than the team we have now.
I think it is safe to say that we can ignore his opinions from now on. Please do not write anymore. Leave the blog to the guys who actually know something about basketball.
Nathan – one thing you are overlooking is that after the all-star break, the Cavs were in total tank mode, they traded away Sessions, they kept Varejao and Irving on the pine to the point that it was obvious – and we all just pleasantly blocked that losing out of our minds because we saw them beat the Thunder and play some decent near .500 ball and just assumed “that’s what we’ll be next year – a team battling for the 8 seed”. So a better data point for what you are arguing would be to look at Hollinger’s ranking… Read more »
Kyrie was injured last year too. As was Andy, especially during those games you just cited. If we were playing without Andy tonight to a Bulls team missing it’s starting PG and SG, I’d bet dollars to donuts the game wouldn’t be much different. Even if we had Waiters playing. That’s pretty sore improvement.
You can cherry pick numbers and score, but a .06 difference isn’t much – certainly not at the level of markedly different. Miniscule? Maybe.
All I can say is go back and re-read my comment. The differences are not as “miniscule” as you claim, especially when you consider that Kyrie is currently injured, and factor in how vastly our bench has improved now that there’s been some time to work out a suitable rotation. To clarify, I don’t think this team is good, or even mediocre right now. I do, however, claim that they have improved markedly from last season, when we would routinely get blown out by 20 and 30 points. Similarly, I think we still have one of the 5 worst benches… Read more »
I’m sorry if people think a truthful look at the current incarnation of this team is negative, but I see no reason to sugarcoat this team and this season. Do you want me to start every statement with “we’re young and we’re getting better, but…”? I can, if that’ll help. For better or worse, we’re not very good now. Regardless of your expectations for how this year would play out, for how it will end, and for how next season goes, at our current state, we’re a mess. We could talk for hours about what that means, and we do… Read more »
Tom
I agree with you about LeBron. Had LeBron said he would be in Cleveland for his whole career and they were sure he’d stay they could’ve planned long term. As it was they had to be in win now mode and it didn’t work out.
But I put most of that on LeBron. It’s hard to plan when you are constantly afraid of your best player walking away.
@Brian – good comment. But, I’m curious about your ‘screwing the pooch” comment. Are you saying that simply because LeBron left (a bottom line kind of thing)? Or is that comment derived from the fact that the Cavs didn’t win a championship or didn’t ever get LeBron a “running mate”? I’m going to assume in my response you mean one of the latter ones, since that is the general sentiment. Here’s my take: I’m of the thought that LeBron put the Cavs in win-now mode in 2005 and they were concerned he wouldn’t re-sign when his rookie deal expired so… Read more »
“…they Cavs were the second worst teams…” –> “…the Cavs were the second worst team…”
The picture attached to this blog perfectly captures TT’s problem. He is going up to the basket angling AWAY from the defender, allowing him to extend his arms and make the block. If he goes up INTO the defender, he either (a) creates separation for clean finish, or (b) draws a foul.
Who can teach him how to finish properly? I don’t know who that would be, but I know who it is NOT: Zydrunus Ilgaskus.
I have to side against you here Mallory. Statistically speaking, these Cavs are vastly improved from last year, even if that isn’t obvious from win/loss record. The best measure of how good a team is, statistically speaking, is Hollinger’s power rankings. I can’t find stats from last year, but I know that in his season preview for the Cavs Hollinger noted that last year’s Cavs actually won several more games than they should have won statistically, based on how many points they scored and allowed: http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/EWL/year/2012. By expected win/loss, they Cavs were the second worst teams in the league last… Read more »
Mallory, I gotta be honest here, sometimes you come across as being negative for the sake of being negative. It’s not like you’re always wrong, by any means. What I think Cols is talking about is fixating on the negatives, and largely ignoring the relatively few positives we have to work with here.
No – we’re not much better record-wise than two years ago. We are, though, indisputably in a better position going forward. To say that the Cavs aren’t “better off” – not better, but better off – then two years ago is an exercise in absurdity.
Mallory
You are stating that you do not thing we are a better team this year than last year or the year before. That’s crazy. I am not twisting your words, here is your quote “we are NOT a better team RIGHT NOW than we were last year or the year before.”
@BrooklynCavalier: bingo. Truth be told there’s very little to no chance the Cavs will build a championship team, I think it’s just the state of the NBA. Teams in markets like Cleveland have almost no other option than to build this way if they want to even enter the discussion. Most owners don’t have the patience to allow their GM’s to see a plan like this through because you’re going to suck hard for a few years and attendance is going to plummet. (fortunately he got lucky and wound up with Kyrie, who may or may not be good enough… Read more »
Cols,
Where did I say I FAVORED older guys over younger ones? You’re twisting my words.
What I CLEARLY said was that, based on numbers alone, we are NOT a better team RIGHT NOW than we were last year or the year before. Are we BETTER OFF? Probably. But that’s not remotely part of what I’m saying.
Look at it this way – Better NOW does NOT mean the same thing as BETTER OFF. Please note the distinction.
It seems pretty clear that the front office has always intended to rid the team of nonproductive older players in favor of letting their high draft pick young talent develop for better or worse over the course of a season or two, because if they don’t develop as fast as you want, you get another high draft pick.
I think that Mallory’s response is exactly why people are frustrated with this blog. The thought that the team is no better off than they were two years ago because they are still losing games is absurd. A person who writes for a blog about the Cavs and can’t see that they are better has no business writing about basketball.
OK
So on a supposedly serious Cavs blog, Mallory has actually come out and wishes for Jamison, Hickson and Sessions over the current players.
I think you should lose your writing license for a little bit. Maybe go back and watch the games from two years ago and then watch the games this year.
This has to be the craziest thing I’ve read about the Cavs in forever.
Also I forgot about Sessions. I’m not saying it’s a bad thing we traded him, but he’s definitely a talented guy we no longer have.
Cols – Saying we’ve improved is seriously biased. Yes, Kyrie is good and so is Andy, but we also don’t have Jamsison, who although infuriatingly bad on D was great on O, and Hickson who was, down the stretch, playing better than Tristan currently is. (on that note – Tristan’s PER and TS are WAY lower than Hicksons were when he played for the Cavs, at about the same age. Are we really that sure TT is a huge improvement?) Again, I’m speaking based on what we CURRENTLY are producing. This has NOTHING to do with our future. Context means… Read more »
WitmI – ask and ye shall receive. Here’s a look at the league’s blk% leaders. I filtered out those players that haven’t logged at least 48 minutes. Of note about TT, he’s not the worst, but he’s the most profilic of the worst, and he has less chance of regressing to the mean as he’s had many more minutes at this rate than some of the people higher than him. Only person really in his league (this was shocking to me) is MKG.
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0Bxo35h7IHewyTWxRSlpScUdWdFE
MF
OK, tell me how this starting five that includes Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters is not better than the starting five from two years ago.
Saying we haven’t improved is only true in crazyland where the only thing that matters is our absolute record without any context at all.
How did you get to be a writer on this blog?
Cols…Have you looked at our record the last two years? We’re still not very good. Not saying I don’t think we WILL be good, but saying we’ve much improved is a fallacy. We haven’t. At least not very much. WitmI Tom and I touched on the blocked shots thing in our last podcast. Basically TT gets blocked some absurd number (Tom, was it 60%?) of the time that he takes a shot. He takes WAY too long to gather and doesn’t finish hard. I actually find it upsetting to watch him because, every time he does it, we all know… Read more »
Cols, getting the number one pick and taking who 80% of people thought was the best pick doesn’t make you a good GM, nor does drafting a guy who looks like has has tools but is still a long way off from resembling anything close to a star. Trading Mo for the #1 draft pick was a great move, but had more to do with luck than being a superb GM. <2% odds that pick turns into #1. He hasn't made bad contracts, but any GM can simply not sign large contracts. What makes you a great GM is not… Read more »
If I’m not mistaken, it was Danny Ferry who drafted Eyenga, not Chris Grant. In any case, every other team also passed on Blair, and he’s pretty good, but he’s not tearing up the league.
The question of Grant being good I think is very easy to answer. After LeBron left the Cavs were awful and had no one to give them hope. They are now much better and have a true star in Irving and a budding star in Waiters. He’s done this without tying the Cavs down with bad contracts or blowing draft picks. I definitely trust him to make the team better in the future. Worrying about guys like Dajuan Blair is dumb. He is a backup on a good team that had huge injury concernes coming into the NBA. I’d much… Read more »
“Do you guys trust CG? You like CJ Miles and TT? I’m not so sure. But DW gives me a little hope….thoughts?” No, no, and no. I don’t trust him at all. I am also not convinced that DW will be a better pro than Harrison Barnes. I think this will happen, but Barnes has a better shot, is taller and jumps higher, and already has some rudimentary post moves. There are lots of things I like about Dion, I think he’s probably going to be good, but the book isn’t closed here. Blair has no ACLs in either of… Read more »
If you watch all the games, you shouldn’t be surprised by this. Can anyone find a ratio of field goals attempted to # of times blocked? From watching the Cavs I bet Tristan has a staggering number of attempts block, it’s probably between 1/4th and 1/3rd of his total shot attempts. He had this same problem in college as he was one of the worst finishers in the NCAA. I doubt this improves very much over his career. Tristan takes too much time to gather before he launches up for a dunk. He is also not explosive enough to power… Read more »
I give him great credit for Kyrie. There was a lot of clamoring for D Williams, whether or not that was “real” or not. Also, I thought Gilbert seemed to be very high on DW as well, or at least “reports” had him saying as much. I was worried about a PG who played a few games at Duke, but sat more for injuries than he played. At the time, can anyone say that they wouldn’t have been at least a little intrigued by drafting Williams #1 and then grabbing Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker to pair them with? I… Read more »
I think that we just have the benefit of hindsight. DaJuan Blair at the time raised serious health questions – didn’t he have no cartilage in both knees or something horrific sounding? That’s always a huge turn off to GMs, and you can understand why. Yes, in hindsight I would much rather have had him (or, you know, anybody) than Eyenga but he hasn’t been effective enough in San Antonio to make me truly mad about that call. We missed out on a potentially useful backup PF, I guess. Tristan… meh. Yeah IMHO he’s a terrible player right now, but… Read more »
Very eye-opening….or maybe that’s not the right word….more like a confirmation of our collective fears. Quick question: What does it mean when I (or many other cavs fans) look at a draft class, pick a few candidates for our draft slot, and CG picks completely different guys from out of left field that end up not being as good as the consensus BPA? I’m not saying this happens on all of his picks…but you can’t deny we are seeing a disturbing trend …examples… 1.Christian Eyenga instead of Dajuan Blair, we all knew it was the wrong pick. 2.Tristan Thompson at… Read more »