Nerlens Noel: Historical Comparisons to the Possible #1 Picks
2013-05-29
Finally, the time has arrived: Nerlens Noel, the majority selection for Number One. The type of long, super-athletic prospect that front offices drool over, the Kentucky freshman followed up on his place at the top of the high school class of 2012 with an impressive twenty-four games at Kentucky, parlaying that dossier into top-pick status. Of course nothing is easy though; on February 12th, he tore his left ACL, sidelining him until 2014. If not for that, this series never exists. Nerlens numerical profile is:
6’ 10” barefoot, 7’ 3.75” wingspan, 206 lbs (apparently he played at 220 pounds. Also no athleticism tests, but I will give Noel the benefit of the doubt of a 3.15 – 3.20 sprint time). Age 19.2 at draft time. 109 orating on 19 usage. 59 / 0 / 53. 78 / 0 / 22. dreb% = 21.7. ast% = 9.3. stl% = 3.9. blk% = 12.9. A:TO ratio = 0.8.
Pretty impressive stuff. Solid rebounding; astounding steal and block rates; and decent offensive play for an 18-year old center. Tough to find comparisons for those traits, and I’ve split this into a few categories.
Low minute back-ups:
Player A – 6’ 9.25” barefoot, 7’ 5.75” wingspan, 222 lbs, 25.5” no-step, 12.49 agility, 3.27 sprint, age 21.6 at draft time (comparison season is 19.6). 97 orating on 17 usage. 50 / 0 / 46. 80 / 0 / 20. dreb% = 23.2. stl% = 1.2. blk% = 18.8 (dropped to 11 his sophomore year, as his minutes increased). ast% = 1.5. A:TO Ratio = 0.2. 196th toughest schedule in NCAA, 534 minutes.
Player B – 6’ 11” barefoot, 7’ 6” wingspan, 241 pounds, 27” no-step, 12.75 agility, 3.25 sprint, age 20.4 at draft time (comparison season is age 19.4) 100 orating on 18 usage. 60 / 0 / 47. 80 / 5 / 15. dreb% = 13.1. ast% = 1.6 (3 assists on the season). A:TO Ratio = 0.1. blk% = 8.5. stl% = 1.0. 330 minutes, 131st toughest schedule in NCAA, 330 minutes.
Player A is long, skinny, and with sprint speed nearing outstanding levels for a big. He couldn’t get minutes at his mid-major school his freshman year. And deservedly so; even as an low-volume offensive role player, he stunk. Also, his weight matches Noel’s playing mass, despite being 2.5 years older.
Player B is also long, fast, and skinny. Like Player A, a hole on offense, racking up one assist per 110 minutes. He also apparently made the decision to not rebound at the defensive end. This contrasts Noel, who is a player lauded for his attitude and effort.
These players are Larry Sanders and Javale McGee. They aren’t comparisons like the players presented on Monday through Wednesday were; Noel is markedly superior to each at a similar age. Plus, McGee is a knucklehead, right? At least these players help build a portfolio for the floor and ceiling that Nerlens possesses.
Next comparison: a long, fast, low-usage shot blocker from an NCAA powerhouse.
Player C – 6’ 8.75” barefoot, 7’ 4” wingspan, 257 lbs, 31.5” no-step, 12.32 agility, 3.15 sprint. age 21.7 at draft time. (age 19.7 season). 114 orating on 13 usage. 59 / 0 / 62. 79 / 0 / 21. dreb% = 20.3. ast% = 4.4. stl% = 1.4. blk% = 12.4. A:TO Ratio = 0.6.
I know, I know…257 pounds. This guy was 30 months older than Noel though. In two years, could Noel at least push 240? North Carolina managed to pack thirty pounds onto John Henson in a similar timeframe…let’s say yes. Player D’s wingspan and reach equal Noel, and his sprint-speed meets the elite levels anticipated from the Kentucky freshman. He played thirty minutes per game, taking part in an Elite Eight run. He rebounded well, swatted shots, and scored 21% of his points from the free throw line (despite not shooting particularly well there). Alot of similarities to Noel, except Nerlens was six months younger, collected significantly more steals, and garnered a larger share of his team’s offense. Oh, and the fifty pounds. This similar freshman rim protector was Emeka Okafor; he averaged 14 points, 10+ rebounds and 2 blocks over his first five NBA seasons (before signing a big contract and never producing the same again).
Now, one final comparison…a player that was definitely better than Nerlens Noel.
Player D – 6’ 9.25” barefoot, 7’ 5.5” wingspan, 222 lbs, (no athleticism tests), age 19.3 at draft time. 134 orating on 19 usage. 62 / 15 / 71. 73 / 2 / 25. dreb% = 23.7. ast% = 7.4. stl% = 2.5. blk% = 13.7. A:TO Ratio = 1.2.
Anthony Davis was really fricking good. That has nothing to do with Nerlens though. So what we’ve learned is that Noel is well ahead of where Larry Sanders or Javale McGee were at his age. He will gain some weight; perhaps a fifteen-footer will develop; pick and roll alley-oops and offensive boards will be slammed with authority. For a ceiling, I could envision lines similar to Okafor’s early days: 15 points and 10 rebounds, but with maybe 3 blocks per night. All other considerations being equal, I have zero doubt that Nerlens Noel deservedly sits atop draft boards. Noel is great prospect, a potential game changer at one end of the court, who at a similar age is well ahead of many of the NBA’s best basket defenders.
Unfortunately not everything is equal. He fractured a growth plate in his left knee in high school, and now the torn ACL in the same knee. People say, “if the doctors sign-off, carry on…” But I still worry; a crew of doctors thought Greg Oden was sound at #1, and he had no history of knee surgery. Pretty much every team stayed away from Dejuan Blair. Now after playing 5400 minutes*, suiting up in 90% of the Spurs games over four years, those medical assessments look a bit off. This stuff isn’t a perfect science, even for the world’s best physicians. You mean they haven’t mastered predicting the impact of thousands of high-velocity, high-torgue movements on the human knee? Amateurs…
That’s silly, but this series never would have existed if not for Noel’s left knee. What scenario is the bigger gut punch? The one where three years from now, the 22-year old is undergoing a third surgery on his left knee? Or the one where the Cavs don’t take Noel, and we watch him swat Kyrie layups during breaks from his receiving John Wall alley-oops, as the Wizards cruise to another Eastern Conference Finals?
Wow; Cleveland sports fandom can leave a person jaded, but these dual questions are what keep this from being cut and dry.
High stakes indeed, and luckily Chris Grant is making the pick. Are there comparisons to players with two surgeries on the same knee before their nineteenth birthday? Let me know your thoughts in the comments, then we’ll wrap this up tomorrow.
*Blair has also logged 276 playoff minutes, impressively with a 23 PER.
Ryan – Just for the record, I think Vucevic is a vastly under rated, top level, young big. I think a team can win a championship with him. I was at a couple of Orlando games and I thought he was the most productive player on the floor.
i think he’ll be a good offensive player. If his ball handling and passing were terrible I’d be worried. They aren’t. He has ball skills. While he’s rehabbing he can work on shooting form, video work, yadda. I think Z is the ideal mentor for him. If you took away Z”s shooting, passing and post moves he’d be a really tall middle school gym teacher or something. Noel is raw, but he’s got ball skills and better body control than most young bigs. He’s not going to be a black hole on offense.
I think Noel possesses all the necessary tools to be a top 3 post in four years.
To say that you shouldn’t take a big man because it takes a few years to fulfill his potential is like saying – in the middle of an energy crisis – that the US shouldn’t drill for oil because, after all, wells aren’t productive for a number of years.
Here’s a great article on his upside. It uses advance statistics and is not unlike the write ups we see here –
http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/2013/05/the-diff-the-stats-behind-drafting-nerlens-noel-at-no-1/
I remember a draft many years ago when the Cavs got stuck with the #1 pick and nobody was worthy of it. The media lamented the luck of the Cleveland franchise. They went big and got stuck with Brad Daugherty. How many years have the Brown’s waited for a top notch #1 quarterback? Are they going to make it to the big show without one? Are the Cavs going to pass on Noel and wait another 7-8 years to take the best big man in a draft? Noel is the consensus #1 pick. Group think has everyone second guessing. He’s… Read more »
I get the tanking part. Orlando is going to be terrible next year either way. No rookie from this draft is going to take them out of the Wiggins sweepstakes.
I kind of think that Noel could be Tristan’s longterm replacement rather than partner. Not trying to stir up the Tristan/Jonas thing again. I like Tristan and he’s dedicated to getting better. He’s going to get better. I wouldn’t hate to have Noel at 4 and stretch 5 who could also defend the paint.
@Cory – Yeah i was thinking more along the lines of the Magic wanting to tank for Wiggins and drafting Nerlens would help them do that. Although, the Magic will probably be terrible regardless so it really doesn’t matter. We would have to throw in some future picks for them to bite.
@Ryan. I just don’t see why the Magic would do that, unless they were in love with Noel. 2 is the best spot in this draft. They can draft Porter and hold him hostage with the Wizards and still get who they want at 3. I wrote a 4,000 word blog on why you should wait to draft bigs because of the amount of time it takes for them to develop and their insane post rookie contracts. I believe thoroughly in it and still want Noel because the Cavs greatest weakness is protecting the paint. Mike Brown has never had… Read more »
Does anyone think we could pry Nikola Vucevic from the Magic? Something like our #1 pick and Tristian Thompson for Vucevic and the #2 pick? It would give Varejao the luxury to guard power forwards more often. With the #2 pick we take Porter or Oladipo. If the Magic want #19 I would probably give them that as well and if not we draft best player available.
PG: Kyrie Irving
SG: Dion Waiters
SF: Otto Porter
PF: Anderson Varejao
C: Nikola Vucevic
That lineup would win some games! (dreaming)
Btw, Wiggins looks positively LBJ-like in the film I have seen. He is a great prospect…
Vesus,
Completely wrong on both counts. Not sure how you came to either of those conclusions.
Next years draft is completely loaded and this years draft was not supposed to be loaded at any point in time.
Outside of Andrew Wiggins, next year’s draft hardly looks loaded. At this time last year, people were saying how loaded THIS draft was going to be.
I watched a HS video of Noel last night; much different from his college stuff. He was actually bringing up the ball in a few of the clips, even dribbling behind his back and then getting to the rim.
Very intriguing stuff. I would still rather have a known quantity like Cousins or Horford, but I’ll be the first to admit that Noel has an interesting skill set and could potentially be very good. He has virtually no ability to make shots other than dunks, but the immense potential is undeniable.
Kyrie- Thank you for explaning valuation to me, but I am a CPA and have to deal with the crap every day! What you say is all well and good, but you are missing an important part. A subway footlong is worth $5 because there are millions of people willing to pay $5 for it. If they tried to sell the same sub for $20, it’s not going to sell. By that same standard, if the number one pick is as worthless as Josh V claims no one is giving up value for it. All I’m saying is you can’t… Read more »
If McLemore, Porter or Olapido had a torn ACL would they be in the discussion for the #3 pick? If Noel was healthy we wouldn’t even have a debate about what Grant should do. Grant is good…and thorough. He’s been intensely following Noel probably since the day he opted to enter the class of 2012 rather than 2013. Noel did improve as the season went on and he probably would have kept doing so. It’s not a great year to have the #1 pick. It just isn’t. There’s a reason people aren’t tripping over themselves to acquire it. A trade… Read more »
@ Nate Smith “All draft pundits agree that if Noel didn’t have injury concerns, then he is a clear #1 choice in this draft. I would completely disagree with that assessment.” NBADraft.net may have Mclemore going #1 overall to the Cavs but that does nothing to disprove my original statement. They have him going #1 to the Cavs in large part due to Noel’s injury and possible future injuries. Like I said before if Noel wasn’t an injury scare, then they and everyone else would have the Cavs taking Noel with the top pick. No one else would even be… Read more »
Could someone save my comment from the comment monster??
Also, Josh, because the Wizards (or someone else) might be in a better place to take that risk. The Cavs need to make the playoffs this year. If they don’t, fans will start to get VERY restless, they’ll have to fire Mike Brown again, and in general it would just be unacceptable for the business.
Someone else, on the other hand, but be more able to handle drafting a risky player like Noel. I just don’t think it’s a good decision for the Cavs right now.
Gah, my comment got eaten by the comment monster.
My point was basically that trading for Okafor isn’t as bad as people seem to think. He’s only 30 (not ancient in basketball terms, by any means), has only one year remaining on his contract, is solid on defense, and isn’t as bad on offense as people think.
Josh, because different people place different values on things. Its the foundation of all trades, including when you trade a $5 bill for a footlong sub. if they didn’t value the $5 as worth more than the sandwhich, they wouldn’t have a business. If you didn’t valued the Sub as worth more than $5, you wouldn’t have incurred the cost of traveling to the shop to purchase it.
I picked Okafor for a few reasons.
1) He’s a talented defensive player.
2) He’s 30…not super young, but not ancient, either.
3) He’s under contract for only one more year, meaning we can either renegotiate or let him go after next year so we keep our 2014 cap space for all the free agents that year.
4) I think he’s underrated on offense. He actually posted a PER near 16 last year on a 17.7 usage. Not excellent, but for a guy who’s specialty is as a defensive clogger in the middle, it’s not awful.
I’m all in on the Bullock Train if we don’t go Porter first. Though I don’t know about that last NC guy we drafted…
@Josh V
If the first pick sucks so bad and no player is worthy of it, why in the world would anyone want to trade up for it?
I mean Washington may do the Okafor trade since it is a Gawd Awful trade for Cleveland, but if the number one pick is as horrible as you say, why would they even want to do that?
Josh, I’d be all for something like that, but hopefully someone a little younger than Okafor. No names coming to mind though..
If they do take Noel, I’d like to see them pick up Bullock at some point. He darn near hit 44% on his 3 pt shots. Plus, he has decent size. 19 might be a little high, but he probably won’t last until 31.
Trade Idea: Golden state is in Awful shape with the Luxury Tax bunch of bad players making a ton of money, while their good players are on rookie/good deals – They wont be able to sign Jarrett Jack or Carl Landry this offseason We take Jefferson + Biedrins (19 Million in cap savings for GSW, possibly 40 million in savings from the repeater tax) off their hands for Harrison Barnes, we give them little contracts, like Alonzo Gee, C.J. Miles… Bits and pieces to make sure the cap works, they also get #19 from this draft, and the MEM and… Read more »
My thought is that we really shouldn’t draft first in a draft that doesn’t have anyone worth a first pick. It actually sucks to have the first pick in this draft…it has far more theoretical than actual value, I think. The perception of Noel as a clear #1, even if he doesn’t have any risk, is more an indictment of the weakness of this draft class than it is an endorsement of Noel’s talent. Noel’s really not that promising from what I can tell. Much better to trade back and get what we can out of it. I think Okafor… Read more »
“All draft pundits agree that if Noel didn’t have injury concerns, then he is a clear #1 choice in this draft.” I would completely disagree with that assessment.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1648466-pros-and-cons-of-cleveland-cavaliers-taking-nerlens-noel-with-no-1-pick-in-2013/page/9
nbadraft.net has Cleveland taking Ben McLemore…
Furthermore, the reason that Noel is so highly rated is that he didn’t get the chance to fail in the tourney like Oladipo, Porter, McLemore, etc. The NBA Draft is the biggest exercise in groupthink in America. Fortunately, Grant seems to ignore a lot of that. Here’s hoping he soberly passes on Noel.
Nate Smith,
I hope Cleveland doesn’t pick McLemore.
That is certainly one of my steps outside the “group think”…McLemore probably isnt’ inside my top ten.
Ross, I guess that’s where we disagree. I see a perfectly healthy Noel as the clear best prospect in this draft, but by about 5-8%. He’s never going the be the best player on a championship team. He might make 4-5 all-star games and/or first team Defenses if all goes well. He’s a very talented kid, but not transcendant and only really good on one side of the court. I certainly don’t see him becoming “Leaps and Bounds” better than each of McLemore, Olidapo, and Porter, but I could be wrong. And Again, I will have a great amount of… Read more »
If Nerlen’s didn’t bust while on another team it wouldn’t have anything to do with Olidapo/Porter busting for us. Yes, if Noel Tears it up on another team AND we draft a bust anyways at number one, that would be the worst case scenario. But Noel has a much higher bust risk, in my eyes, than either of those guys. And Olidapo or Porter could just end up being the better player even if Nerlens stays healthy. Nerlen’s is not a slam dunk home run pick, even without injury concerns. He would likely be a unanimous best prospect in the… Read more »
I think I agree with parts of what everyone is saying.
Nerlens has the highest ceiling, but it doesn’t seem to be 10-time all-star level. I think Oladipo and Porter will both be really good pros; let’s say top-fifty players in the league.
I am open to Cleveland doing about whatever they choose to…which is fortunate, because they are going to anyways.
@KyrieSwIrving The choices weren’t as you presented them. Under option B, there is obviously no guarantee we are getting an all star. That’s the whole point of this series that Kevin just wrote. So option B wouldn’t be a unanimous choice as less gut wrenching or Kevin wouldn’t have bothered to write these articles. If it’s as you make it out to be, then we wouldn’t even consider drafting Noel and it’d be an easy choice. All draft pundits agree that if Noel didn’t have injury concerns, then he is a clear #1 choice in this draft. So yes, there… Read more »
Ben F, He’s a professional athlete. Chances are he’s a complete douche, it comes with the territory. And a LOT of things would have to go right for us to take a bust at #1 and still be seen as an up and coming contender in 2015. TT, Dion, and Zeller aren’t all going to reach there full potential. Besides, I was just pointing out that its silly to rather draft a complete bust, than take a guy likely to be 95% as good as nerlens and have to watch nerlens play well for another team. Neither is ideal, but… Read more »
@ Josh V – that trade would be horrendous. Why would we trade the #19 pick for an aging player like Okafor? We would literally be giving up value in order to move back 2 spots. That’s just awful.
Josh V – that’s actually a terrible idea. Okafor is OK…but overpriced and not getting any younger. If we’re going to use a pick to get a veteran, it’s better to either take the deal with Dallas (netting us Marion) or try to pry Granger away from Indy (where he is no longer nearly as valuable to them.) Kyrie – He’ll bulk up more. He is young and didn’t get to college until August. He missed out on a lot. As long as he an set picks, catch (and dunk) lobs and drop in a bunch of putbacks, that’s all… Read more »
Actually, I don’t know, they say that, but they only show 3 examples (13:00 in) but earlier in the video he’s got some alright catches. He’s just so thin guys can poke it out, and he obviously doesn’t make every catch.
Okay, so I don’t think spending the first pick on anyone is worth it. The difference between the first pick and third pick in this draft is minimal. That’s why there’s so much debate about this.
I think trading back is our best bet. What would people think about giving the 1st and 19th to Washington for Okafor and the third pick, then take Porter? I would love to see us trade back and pick up a veteran to fill one of our positions of need than spend a draft pick on a giant question mark.
KyrieSwIrving – even if we do bust with our 2013 1st round pick (which could just as easily happen with Porter, Olapido or McLemore), why do you automatically assume that Kyrie walks? What if Waiters, TT and Zeller all reach their full potential? What if Zeller exceeds his potential the way that Varejao has managed to blow the roof off of his perceived ceiling (when healthy?) What if our #19 pick exceeds his potential? What if we manage to sign one of the more premium FA’s next year (and I don’t mean Lebron) and go on to compete for several… Read more »
Ben F, its pretty widely accepted he has bad hands. They might improve, TT’s seemed to. But they are certainly worse than most freshmen basketball players.
for some evidence:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7E3ZFRmXo08
I find it interesting that people here are basically assuming that Cousins (age 22, just finished his 3rd season) will never be able to mature as a player/person or fix the holes in his game (defense, shot selection). As if Sacramento is some sort of ideal environment for player development and he is simply hopeless. Keep in mind he was the best player on a team that finished better than Cleveland in a harder conference. However, the prevailing opinion on Noel seems to be that he will not only be unaffected by multiple knee surgeries, but he will magically develop… Read more »
Ross, how so? So you’d much rather we: A. draft him and he’s constantly injured, than B. draft Otto or Oladipo, who max their potential to become a 1-3 time all-star, and watch Nerlens reach his max potential of maybe one more all star game than that for a different team? Its not like the guy is going to be the next Tim Duncan, even if he has 100% health. He’s not Lebron, He’s not Davis or Kyrie, he might not even be a franchise player. His ceiling is about half a notch higher than Oladipo’s and Porter’s. His floor… Read more »
T: Grant didn’t hamstring our defense…Ferry did.
And where do you get that Noel has bad hands? You do realize that he didn’t get to Kentucky until August? He was months behind the power curve (in both collegiate weight room and in team chemistry).
Grant isn’t going to wager his job on an inconsistent knucklehead. He just not. Give it up. Especially after Grant hamstrung our excellent defense with the Mo and Twan signings. Every new Cav will be a Mike Brown guy, book it.
Noel’s hands scare me. Porter or Oladipo please…
Noel has bad hands, my number one pet peeve with bigs. Oladipo or Porter please…
“What scenario is the bigger gut punch? The one where three years from now, the 22-year old is undergoing a third surgery on his left knee? Or the one where the Cavs don’t take Noel, and we watch him swat Kyrie layups during breaks from his receiving John Wall alley-oops, as the Wizards cruise to another Eastern Conference Finals?” For me, that’s an easy choice. I would have much more regret to see Noel succeed elsewhere and help another team become a championship contender than the regret I would have if we draft him and he is injury plagued. And… Read more »
And again, HELL NO TO BOOGIE COUSINS! The guy is near 7 ft and can’t hit half his shots. He jacks it up all over the place, and with Dion and Kyrie, we don’t need/want that. He puts up good stat lines on a bad team. He rebounds well… and that is really about it. His defense is garbage, at the position where defense has the biggest impact on the outcomes of games. No thank you. I’d much rather have a tyson chandler type down low than a Boogie “Look how many points I score! Its almost as many as… Read more »
I’d much rather have Oladipo than McLemore. And yes, Grover13, brown sat rookies who weren’t playing within the team concept because the teams he was coaching had immediate championship aspirations! And the guys he was sitting weren’t franchise changers! Brown doesn’t have a track record for developing young talented rookies, but he doesn’t have a track record for stunting their growth by any means either. We’ll see how he does. And lets not forget that Lebron developed a hell of a lot under Brown. He had only been in the league 2 years before brown’s tutelage, and was no-where near… Read more »
The Nupe – Greg Oden’s knee issues are far different from Nerlens Noel’s knee issue. An ACL tear (once fully rehabbed) is typically stronger than pre-injury. Greg Oden is actually a much bigger risk. He had Microfracture surgery on his right knee (missed his rookie year.) Then he injured his left knee with a chipped knee cap (missing three more weeks) on top of some foot injury he had in his (new) rookie season. Next season, he fractured his left knee cap again and missed a large oprtion of the season. This was 2009. In 2010, he had to have… Read more »
I like NN as a pick but if we could get Cousins for the #1 pick and ___ (Kyrie, TT, Dion s/b untouchable), then that’s what I would do. The knee does concern me quite a bit, if a truly good trade for the #1 pick doesn’t come up, then I’d like to see us take Porter #1 as the ‘safe’ pick that can help immediately and his skill-sets and playing style fit perfectly with our current team. If we want to take a chance on a knee, I think bringing in Greg Oden may be our best bet –… Read more »
Uh, Grover, that’s not even remotely notable. Shannon Brown was with the Cavs for a year and a half. I’d sure as hell hope he became a better player after he left. And by the way, he’s still a bad player. If you think it is an indictment on Mike Brown that later in his career Shannon Brown went from a really bad player to just a below average player, you should probably look at the natural career trac of nearly every NBA player. They tend to improve after their first year and a half in the league. As for… Read more »
Player D:
FG % .603 FT% .667 MP: 28.3 PPG: 13.1 Rebounds: 7.3 Assists: 0.7 Blocks 4.97 Steals .44 Assist to turnover .35
Alonzo Mourning… But he definitely had a stronger lower body in college. I imagine he played around 230 his freshman year..
Nerlens is definitely a quicker leaper… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbIxFvMmcmc
@Cory-
Good job listing the draft picks that Brown had to work with in his tenure.
But you forgot the most notable fact: the only two decent players he had to work with (Shannon Brown and JJ Hickson) both became much better players AFTER they left the Cavs.
JHill – I’m all for it! LOL
Alright guys hear me out, lets trade for Curry, Kevin Love Danillo Galinari and Lamarcus Aldridge and form the Injured All-Star team.
I say if we get Cousins you get Otto Porter, to be honest the number 1 thing that would help us would be more guys that can pass the ball. If everyone is passing, and playing for a team concept maybe Cousins doesn’t feel like he has to chuck the ball up every time he touches the ball.
RE: Noel injury. I talked with a friend who works in PT about Noel and he essentially said the doctors will have access to rehab info, and surgery notes, but would be making a best guess on future stability of Noel. So not good not bad, just hard to predict anything (as Kevin’s Blair and Oden example showed). RE: Cousins. I hate the trades I’ve seen. Dion and the #1 are always involved and I just feel like its too much for a guy with Cousins inconsistant effort. When good he throws up 25/20 games easier than anyone but Love,… Read more »
Grant needs to buckle down and figure out a way to get Cousins without giving up the #1 overall pick. Give them the #19, Memphis pick, Sacto pick, and Miami pick. Draft Noel to play behind AV and Cousins. Hope that a winning atmosphere will allow Cousins to grow up.
@Venus – the biggest problem I have with Cousins (and I am very much intrigued by his talent) is that he was the “defensive anchor” for the team that had the 29th ranked defense in the league (the Cavs were ranked 25th.) We need defense bad. His offensive skills are off the charts good. But if I have to make a choice between guessing if a guy is going to mature mentally…or if a guy is going to mature physically, I’ll choose physically any day of the week. If I have to choose between a guy who is great on… Read more »
I’ve enjoyed reading these comparisons… How do his measurements compare to Kevin Garnett and Ben Wallace?
Also, was wondering if anyone sees Otto Porter developing a game closer to Scottie Pippen or Kawahi Leonard?
Of the top five draft prospects, Noel has the biggest downside and upside. If you pick him and he’s healthy you did the right thing. His ball-handling and passing are extremely underrated. If he had terrible ball skills I’d be worried about him becoming a smoother offensive player. I see him being dedicated to improving. That’s important. If he can’t stay healthy, you blew a prime opportunity. If you pass on him and he stays healthy, you blew a prime opportunity. Markets like Cleveland don’t have as many opportunities to get blue chip players. If you have that shot, you… Read more »
It’s a tough call. I lean towards Porter, he’s the safer pick. And the better fit to what we already have.
Two injuries to the same knee scare me. And Kyrie and Andy (and maybe Oden) are already fragile enough.
Still, I think both Noel and Porter fit the kind of culture and attitude the team is trying to build, and both would fit well from a character/team building perspective. I’ll be happy with either and hope for the best.
If the price is right, I would rather take a risk on Cousins than Noel. If he could just grow up a little DMC has already shown all-NBA game. You can’t really say that about Noel even when healthy.
Great article Kevin, but I’m more convinced than ever that Cavs should do everything possible to trade the #1 pick. Just too many red flags with NN.
42nd is Boobie Gibson.
Here are the rookies Mike Brown has had to work with in his career. Not entirely fair to say that he doesn’t play rookies. It completely could have been the situations he was in. 2005/06 No first round pick. Traded in the Wesley Person deal (13th overall) 2006/07 25th-Shannon Brown. Played behind Larry Hughes. 42nd-Had a meaningful run in the playoffs. 2007/08 No draft picks. 22nd traded in Sasha Pavlovic deal. 24th traded in the Jiri Welsch deal. 2008/09 19th-JJ Hickson. Behind Wallace and Varejao on the depth chart. 2009/10 30th-Christian Eyenga. Raw rookie behind Lebron, West, Gibson, Moon, Parker.… Read more »
grover – We’ve already brought in a player developmental coach (from the Lakers) and hired a new offensive coordinator (from Phoenix.) Those won’t be Mike Brown’s department…and as was stated…this Cavs team is completely different from the last one he coached and very different from the one he coached in LA.
I will say this, Andrew Bynum had easily the best season of his career under Mike Brown.
Stopped in the middle of the article just to comment about how solid it is. Great read, echoes how I feel about Noel. If he didn’t have the injury questions he would be a no-brainer. Defensive game changer but he needs to fix the free throw stroke.
Brown is in a different situation than his previous stop with the Cavs and with the Lakers. Those were more veteran laded teams than he has now. He sat rookies, but they weren’t as talented as Noel and the team wasn’t as dependent on their development. Noel is going to probably need eased into next season anyway.
Yeah, remember how Andy Varejao didn’t even want to take a layup when he first started playing for Byron Scott, then Scott let him loose and boom he starts pulling 20 and 20 games out of his ass. I think Brown seriously has to take a look at his offense and start allowing a little more freedom, it will help the young guys continue to develop.
This has been torn apart ad nauseum. One of my biggest cases against Noel is the traditional development time of centers in the NBA, which is quite long. He’ll likely have played out his rookie contract before he even averages 10 boards per game. But exacerbating that is our new coach, Mike Brown. He’s not Byron Scott, who let’s rookies play through growing pains. He tends to not play rookies a lot, and when he sees a single thing he doesn’t like, he yanks them off the court. Not the best situation for a guy whose a long term project,… Read more »
This is pretty much what I expected.
If the rest of the draft class didn’t appear to be so weak…he wouldn’t be such an easy #1.
Great stuff Kevin!!
Great article, everything I wanted, for some reason im more worried then I was before I started reading the article, lol, and I had no Idea Okafor had such long arms… thanks, hope you guys think of another series similar to this
Good stuff per usual Kevin. I think it’s a no-brainer, though I get the medical issues. Hope we take him and never look back. Though, I am already bracing myself for him getting the Tristan Thompson treatment