#WellActually You’re Wrong to be Outraged about the Lottery
2014-05-23
I promise to pen only one rant-post a season.
Let me start by saying I currently have two enormous pet peeves frequently generated by journalists/pundits. The first is the use of the word “nuance” or “nuanced” which is code for “I am enlightened and/or reasonable enough to understand that the world isn’t black and white, there are “shades of gray” and therefore my “nuanced” discussion or analysis is superior to your opinions, which are essentially Neanderthal grunting”.
This thinly-veiled hubris is insufferable, and the phrase du jour has permeated every sector and level of journalism. It’s one thing when the almond-milk drinkers at The Atlantic are using it; it’s another when sportswriters writing about…well sports, revert to it over and over and over. Can we go back to talking like characters from “da Bears” sketches already? It’s just as intelligent, only without the overwhelming smugness.
OK, I know that rant was equally awful, but I had to get it off my chest. My second pet peeve is serious – I hate (hate!) when sports pundits tell people how to feel about something sports-related. It’s a sign that they’ve lost all perspective on life and actually think their duty is to paternalistically monitor, enlighten, and rectify a fan’s emotional response to sports.
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a person filled with excessive and single-minded zeal
It’s SPORTS. The whole point is to be a little nutty (so long as no one gets hurt). It’s supposed to be irrational. One of the most profound exchanges of my adult life came in Portland while waiting for the train with one of my former bosses. He read my “Why I Want LeBron to Fail Forever” series and took exception that I was disapproving of LeBron’s decision. “He’s a free agent, he’s allowed to leave!” he said. “He can do whatever he wants!” I shouted back, “and as a fan, I can hate what he did.” After a moment of silence… “I wish him no ill-will, when he steps OFF the basketball court…” And that was enough. My former boss (who started out just simply trolling me before it got heated) was satisfied. “Yeah.” he said with a smirk, “I guess you are allowed to hate it.”
And that’s the thing about sports, it’s the last vestige of good ol’ fashioned argument. Someone once described sports as simulated war – that which quenches our tribal instincts (without all the death and suffering). But sports has become something else. Sports is our last bastion of truly “free speech zones”. And I mean that sincerely. You can have literally any opinion about sports and chances are no one is going to hold it against you personally. All those millions (actually probably billions) of hyperventilating Kobe fans I spent seven years bombarding – I mean I think they’re delusional – but I don’t hold it against them! I’d actually respect them less if they were “nuanced” and succumbed to my analytical blitzkrieg. Be CRAZY. Be irrational! Perform all the mental gymnastics you need to convince yourself Kobe is even in the same conversation as Jordan…. IT’S SPORTS! YOU’RE ALLOWED.
Given all that (if you’re still here) it’s with great discomfort (and only after a lot of soul searching) that I’m about to explain to you (so that you can understand) how to feel about the Cavs winning the draft lottery (again). I’ll be sure not to make it “nuanced” because I have a strong opinion backed by facts so I don’t need to manufacture a sense of false paralysis in my arguments to convince myself I’m above the fray. I’m not.
Feelings You Shouldn’t Have about the Cavs Winning the Draft Lottery:
1.) Feigned astonishment cloaking a general sore-losership that the Cavs have won “Three of the last four drafts!!!?”
Why not?
Because not all lotteries are created equal. If you have two friends and the first “wins” three prizes from the reverse raffle at a church fish fry, netting the Directors-Cut DVD of ‘The Sound of Music’ (the Carrie Underwood Edition tho), a sleeve of corporate-logo golf balls (pinnacle golds), and a goldfish in a zip-lock bag (already listing 45 degrees) and your other friend wins the Powerball, you don’t freak out and say “ARE YOU KIDDING ME!? AAAAND the PINNACLE GOLDS?! So bleepin lucky….es em aych man…es em aych.”
The reality is that the Cavs have gotten lucky exactly one time since LeBron James assassinated basketball in Cleveland. And, yes, it was this week. Allow me to explain (so you can understand). In 2011, the Cavs set a pro basketball sports record for consecutive losses (matched this season by the #tankstrong 76ers). They played Ryan Hollins over a thousand minutes, and he rewarded them with more fouls than rebounds. (but I choose to remember this and this) For all their suffering, the god of ping pong balls rewarded them with the number four pick in the upcoming draft that was relatively weak across the board. Historians are still trying to sort it all out, but early returns suggest the Cavs had to choose between Tristan Thompson, an undersized PF that the analytics community loved, and a legit 7-foot EuroBig that wouldn’t come overseas for at least a year. Both guys have been underwhelming and lineups that include Thompson and Irving or Thompson and Waiters have been atrocious. So that’s what Cleveland won. They won Tristan Thompson. “Let the LeBron Reparations be concluded – the league/karma gods have righted a great wrong”.
Or not.
No, I didn’t forget Kyrie Irving. The Cavs didn’t win Kyrie Irving. The CLIPPERS won Kyrie Irving. The upstart Clippers who were seeded 8th and had a 2.8% chanced of winning the draft lottery won the draft lottery. Imagine that, it does exactly what it was intended to do. So how did Kyrie Irving come to be a Cavalier? How could such an inept organization just steal away the number one pick? #WellActually, Dan Gilbert paid $12 million dollars for it.
Dan Gilbert has put his money where his mouth is, in a way that is almost unprecedented in the NBA. At the trade deadline, the Cavs traded in-his-prime point guard Mo Williams for prime-rib-loving point guard Baron Davis, who hasn’t tried in two years.
The Cavs must pay Davis roughly $29 million over the next two seasons. Williams gets $17 million. (Jamario Moon, who was included in the deal, has a team option of $3.2 million that the Clippers can decline if they choose.) The Cavs also got the Clippers’ 2011 first-round pick in the trade.
I know at least one popular NBA pundit out there has written extensively on the stingy financial decisions of both the Suns and the Thunder. (I’m talking about our own Nate Smith obviously.) It’s the belief of many that those ownership groups may have sabotaged (or be sabotaging) their franchise’s title hopes by letting all-stars like Joe Johnson and James Harden walk so as to avoid the luxury tax. The overarching message I got for that popular pundit, and all the others that have written about the subject, is that it’s “bad” when owners do this, and really very good when they dig deep into their wallets to win at all costs.
So Dan Gilbert spent $12 million dollars on the chance the Clippers pick (which they didn’t protect) would net the Cavs a solid player. And it did. The next time someone buys 12 million dollars of powerball tickets and wins, I think the narrative can be “wow, that guy really wanted it!” Not “what a lucky slash incompetent fool.” So making a shrewd trade and taking on a crapton of salary “won” the Cavs the lottery. That’s not luck, that’s good management.
2.) Discouragement that God may actually Love Cleveland and your whole worldview no-longer makes sense.
Still a better ending than The Decision.
Why not?
Because…EVERYTHING?! Josh Gordon stands out, but pretty much everything. As it relates to the Cavs, they just completed one of the most surreal (and in a mostly negative way) seasons imaginable. Every move they made (the good, the bad, and the nuanced) ended up fugly. And really, outside of the mostly indefensible Earl Clark signing, the Cavs made decisions that anyone could get behind. The harmonious chorus sang in delight over the additions of Jarrett Jack and Andrew Bynum. Bynum, given the contract, seemed low-risk, high-reward, and his procurement was lauded as a ballsy move by a team that historically struggles to land free agents. And despite the Cavs working with Bynum to actually get him healthy enough to play (which seems like it should have been the hard part) they were absolutely abominable with him on the court, and he was more or less kicked off the team for his behavior in practice. Jack was seen as a no-risk, high reward culture changer by everyone including his former coach Mark Jackson. For most of the season Jack’s production and efficiency was crap, but hey, at least he provided that solid veteran leadership. (His WS/48 went from .115 to .049)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kU32bSxAQMg#t=1m43s
Oh and then Anthony Bennett happened. A guy that Chad Ford claimed could be a consensus number one if he was two inches taller (also called him a similar but much more athletic version of Paul Millsap) and DraftExpress rated him as sixth prospect overall on their draft board. Since he wasn’t a PG or an SG, out for the season, or from the Zeller clan, he was selected. Turns out the Cavs found a way to shatter all incompetence records (breaking their own previous record) by drafting Bennett and not knowing he likes pizza. #WellActually, it turns out, the Anthony Bennett from all the pre-draft youtube videos was actually one of the Monstars training at UNLV for Space Jam 2. After the news broke that it was all a hoax and there would be no movie, he went back to his original form, bought a dog and a bike and retired to Portland. What the Cavs have now is a shapeshifting life-form that watched basketball on a European streaming site for years, studying the game and trying to understand its nuances, so that he could one day dominate. The only problem was the stream got corrupted, and instead of waiting for it to buffer, he kept impatiently replaying the David Wesley layup sequence on a loop. It’s the only logical explanation.
Was it a bad pick? Probably. (Ok Yes) But honestly, other than taking a flier on Nerlens Noel I’m not convinced anyone in Cleveland would trade shape-shifting Anthony Bennett for one of his other draftmates. They all underwhelm. And UNLV Bennett actually fits the Cavs roster perfectly – so if someone can send our shape-shifting friend a feed, maybe he can start training again. Winning that lottery was like winning the right to get in line first at Golden Corral. A pyrrhic victory, at least for your stomach.
So where is all this transcendent grace coming from? Not from heaven, as Dion Waiters and Kyrie Irving may or may not have brawled in the locker room to kick off the season, Luol Deng showed up and made the defense somehow worse (at least for the first month), and the Cavs had more 5-second violations in one season than most people witness in a lifetime. The Curse of Rocky Colavito is still in full force. Also, you should definitely listen to Jason Whitlock’s podcast for his interview (in the middle) with Brian Windhorst. It’s here. The last segment features Heat Index writer Michael Wallace.
In the podcast with Whitlock (which was, again, excellent), Wallace asked: “if you’re a GM, and someone says, ‘OK, we’ll trade you three No. 1 picks over the next four years for LeBron James’ – wouldn’t you make that trade?” Whitlock wouldn’t bite, that still wasn’t enough of a package, so Wallace continued – “If it turned out to be Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, and any of these top three guys….I would take that in a heartbeat…..”
Well….yeah. Had the Cavs won Anthony Davis, the best prospect since Kevin Durant, and paired him with another potential superstar in Kyrie Irving and one of this draft’s big-three, then this post would be a recommendation that we all feel differently about God’s role in Cleveland Sports. But the difference between an argument that includes the Cavs winning Anthony Davis and the reality that they didn’t win Anthony Davis is..I’m gonna go with significant? Yep – there’s a significant difference. And it’s more than just that. Here’s the story, to add to our lore: the Cavs and the Pelicans (then Hornets) tied for the third seed in the 2012 lottery. There was a coin flip to determine which team would be seeded third and receive the ping ball balls assigned to the third seed and which team would be seeded fourth and receive the ping pong balls assigned to the fourth seed. And the fated ping-pong ball that brokered the Anthony Davis lottery was from the family of four-Seeds. The Cavs winning that coin flip, now THAT was a pyrrhic victory.
Two sides to every coin! “NUANCE!”
If you really need more proof that God is not a Cleveland Sports fan – recall that the 2007 Cleveland Indians, up three games to one on the eventual World Series sweeping Red Sox, ended up losing thanks in large part to JD Drew’s iconoclastic grand slam, which Bill Simmons dubbed “the 14 million dollar grand slam”. He wrote an epic post about it, and in the most vivid way possible, expressed how impossibly unimaginable it was. And in Cleveland? The infograph showing us that Drew was oh-fer with RISP in the series was essentially our canary in the coal-mine. We knew we were goners right then. But wait, there’s more! Here’s the twisted blade of fate that I recall. I recall that the Indians, up 3-1 in that series, were without 2008 CY Young Winner Cliff Lee for that entire series. How unlucky is that! Oh, and the reason they were without 2008 CY Young Winner Cliff Lee? Because he freaking sucked in 2007 – he was so bad they sent him to the minors to fix his control and left him off the playoff roster (which no one disagreed with). Think the 2008 version of Cliff Lee on the 2007 Indians improves their chances of closing out that series?
I know what cursed the Indians in this series. It didn’t appear on TV but I was at the game they won to go up 3-1 and I know what happened.
3.) Rage that the least deserving team was given a handout.
Other folks have already chimed in with their take on Bill Simmons’ now-famous draft rage including ESPN’s own Scott Van Pelt. Instead of re-inventing the wheel to make my point, I’m just going to steal these notes from Jacob Greenberg: First, Greenberg facetiously tells a team what not to do in order to maximize tanking:
Don’t sign anyone who can help you, even if it means dipping under the salary-cap floor and going down as the cheapest NBA team ever.
What’s the point of signing veterans like Jarrett Jack, Carl Landry, and Shaun Livingston in July just because you have the extra money? So they can tie up your cap, give you depth, make you a few wins better, take young players under their wing and maybe even teach them good work habits and professional behavior and all that overrated stuff? Screw that!
You may recall that the Cavs overpaid for Jarrett Jack this season. Greenberg goes on to explain the other tanking strategies including some crafty veteran tanking moves. He was mostly explaining what the 76ers and Bucks did all season. And then, Jacob Greenberg emerged from the piece and revealed his true feelings:
And that’s why this tanking bullshit matters. When 36 percent of your league is willfully throwing away the last five weeks of an 82-game season, you’re doing something wrong.
That’s great stuff by Jacob Greenberg. He wrote another piece too. Today, in fact. Here is the “it” paragraph:
Of course, this is perplexing for several reasons. The primary reason, of course, is that, unlike other lottery participants — in fact, nearly every single one — Cleveland did not tank. No, they went for it this year, Dan Gilbert had ants in his pants. They weren’t the Sixers, who lost nearly 30 straight games and still had the audacity to say they had completed a “successful season.” They weren’t the Bucks, who boasted a point differential of -8.2 in their games, and had billboards in their cities with ping pong balls emblazoned on the front. They weren’t the Celtics or the Lakers, who proudly displayed their tank jobs to a national television audience throughout the year. No, the Cavs went for it this year, rehiring successful former coach Mike Brown, and signing sought-after free agents like Andrew Bynum, Jarrett Jack and Earl Clark in a push to qualify for the playoffs. When things didn’t go well for Brown or the Cavs, they took on more salary, adding Luol Deng and Spencer Hawes by trade, and jettisoning Bynum to the Pacers. They did everything they could to qualify for the playoffs, scraping with the Hawks and the Knicks for the final spot in a desperate effort to save face. And when the season ended, the organization behaved like the team had vastly under-performed –because, well, they had — and fired the coach, as well as all of his assistants. By all accounts, this was a team that attempted to win, and for a bevy of reasons, it didn’t come together. Assuredly, this is exactly the team that “deserves” to win the lottery; one that didn’t plan to be obsolete, it just didn’t work.
[Nodding head] Yep. The Cavs rebooted their season four different times to….TRY TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS! It didn’t happen, we get it, they sucked. But when they were still in the hunt, they traded for Rent-A-Deng. Then they traded for Rent-A-Hawes. They rehabbed Andrew Bynum and tried to make that work. They were the most ANTI-Tanking team in the NBA last season from the perspective that, at least 10 times throughout the season, they should have said “ya know – we’re terrible, it ain’t happenin’, play the young guys, let’s hope for a top three pick”, only…that is the thing that every pundit furiously raged about all season long, and….the Cavs DIDN’T DO IT. Some of the best NBA writers out there even conceded that (despite hating tanking) the smart thing for the Cavs was probably to just take their medicine. From Grantland’s Zach Lowe:
Also, the Deng trade may take Cleveland out of the most anticipated lottery in a decade…Cleveland could have continued its run toward the bottom ahead of a stacked draft. That would have probably been the wiser move in a vacuum, but the Cavs aren’t operating in a vacuum.
I actually argued this as well, against Nate in a Cavs:The Duels:
The way I see it, the Cavs are severely lacking in talent. They need more talent, much more of it. If a bottom-10 NBA team (which is what I believe the Cavs are with Luol Deng) wants to miss out on the most talent rich (and top heavy) draft in a decade, it should be for a very good reason. “Making the playoffs” is not a good enough reason when 33 wins in a conference full of tanking teams meets that self-imposed requirement. There are five to seven players in the 2014 Draft class that if eligible in 2013 would have easily been the No. 1 pick.
Of course the Cavs never even considered tanking, not for one second, this season.
With Lowe and I willing to experiment in the dark magicks, I’m glad the NBA community has thoughtful purists like Greenberg to advocate so furiously against tanking. But the joke’s on you dear reader, for not clicking the hyperlinks (always click my links!), else you’d by now realize it was Bill Simmons, not Jacob Greenberg, that actually derided the shameless tanking in the first paragraph.
I know, I know.
I can only assume that the guy on TV the other night is also an out-of-work Monstar from Space Jam 2. How else to explain the cognitive dissonance between choosing the most anti-tanking team of the 2013-2014 season and declaring it the only team unfit for the spoils of the #1 pick in the 2014 lottery.
You simply can’t. Once again the draft did exactly what it is intended to do – and in an uncharacteristic lapse, God forgot that the 2013 NBA draft class was last year. (Give Him a break, he’s got way more important concerns than sports – like, everything else.)
Well, at least more important concerns than the NBA.
And that, dear readers, brings me full circle. You can’t explain (so that plebeians will understand) the nuances of the vitriol being directed at Cleveland, the Cavs franchise, fate, God, the draft process. It’s all contradictory. And you know what, that’s exactly the way it should be. It’s sports, not a GeoPolitical summit! Believe something fundamental about the game – when it’s convenient! Go COMPLETELY the opposite way when it’s not! If you need assistance, just dial 8 and the nearest Kobe fan will be with you shortly. Just make stuff up half the time! As long as it’s not boring – you’re adding to the party!
So Rage on! Flip out! Let’s go! Do I need to remind you that the Cavs win the freaking draft lottery EVERY SINGLE YEAR? It’s GOTTA BE RIGGED. Of course the NBA would want the Cavs to get all these No. 1 picks – it’s the worst kept conspiracy in pro sports! Time to change the draft lottery! I vote for the wheel or the plinko – whichever is easier for Mallory Edens to spin/drop! And let’s add a rule that the Cavs can NEVER win the draft lottery again – at least not until we say so!
@underdog – that wiggins article is incredible. I agree 100%. The inability to finish at the rim is a huge issue. Marvin Williams 2.0 is in play if we draft Wiggins.
I am at the point where I think anything but Wiggins is fine.
I just don’t think we’re going to be able to trade for anyone better than Love. Getting another “good” player is easy. Acquiring a superstar is SO rare that I think it’s worth the gamble if we do it without giving up this year’s first, KI, or DW. I’d be willing to part with almost anything else for even the chance to bring him here. If we’re a 2-4 seed next year with him, what do you think the chances are he doesn’t resign? I’d be pretty confident in him staying.
I personally don’t have an anti-tanking value system. Tanking is a sensible strategy for non-contenders, under the current system. Why should karma punish teams for pursuing the best possible strategy for building a good team? Of course I’m not mad that the Cavs got the pick, but I don’t feel the team’s management “earned” it in any way just because they pursued a set of short-sighted goals and then failed miserably to accomplish even those.
Yeah, what Cory said. I think the Love thing is massively overblown. I’d much rather have Thad Young at a third of the price. TT or a future first probably gets Young. That being said, if I’m Love? I’m getting myself to the East where I’d have been a third seed last year.
It’s hard to gauge the asking price for Love. Boston could throw them 4 first rounders (including 6th this year), Sullinger and Olynick. If you aren’t sending the 1st pick, you’d have to include Waiters in the package for Love with Bennett or Thompson and at least two if not three first round picks.
Best draft plan I’ve seen so far: Draft Wiggins. If the Bucks take Parker at 2, offer Wiggins for the #3 and #10. Include next year’s first if necessary (lottery protected). Then offer the #10, the Memphis pick, Bennett, and whatever else other than Dion for KLove. Go for a SF in FA. Either LeBron (obvious preference) or Deng would work fine. While I’d rather have Wiggins than Embiid, if we can get Embiid AND KLove, we’ve gotta go for it. That gives us a lineup of: KI/Jack Dion/Miles LeBron or Deng/Our choice of mid-level SF FA. Love/TT Embiid/Varejao With… Read more »
Also, Embiid has been getting RIDICULOUS reviews from his workout. And a 7 foot freak athlete with a “beautiful jumper”? Sign me up.
If not for the back injury, Embiid would be the best pick in terms of fit and ceiling. Wiggins may also be a stud, but Embiid gives us the rim protector and potential top 5 player in the LEAGUE that we need.
Back injuries are scary, though…
Love the article and the comments here.
I hate the thought of trading back to #3. Sure, we might get a solid player at #10, but how many 20 year olds can one roster have?
If we’re legitimately unsure of who we favor at #1 and it’s basically a tie between Wiggins-Embiid-Parker, then sure, trade back I guess. But I doubt that will be the case, so we should take our top guy and move forward from there.
I see a little more Joe Johnson in Parker than Pierce. I know the skin tone is not the same but I still think you should be able to compare them.
Parker – Pierce
McDermott – Korver
Stauskas – Redick
I’d be OK with the Cavs trading their #1 to Philly for the #3 and #10, taking Wiggins or Embiid (or Parker if the other two are gone) and then grabbing another stud at 10.
But that seems to complicated to do correctly.
Maputo, you mean Philly instead of Orlando? Orlando picks 4 and 12, maybe you could get Exum and Stauskaus there. Either way, I don’t like it.
Wildly entertaining reading here Tom. I wish my Raptors Republic had such quality rants. With KI stories, and the Dion Waiters I have watched in the last 2 years, I would trade KI to Orlando for their 2 lottery picks, thake Joel Embid with your 1st, Parker with the 3rd & hopd for Nik Stauskas at 10. Take apage out of Masai Ujiri’s book & sit down with DW & tell himmit’s now or never. Want to be a max player or do want to be an asshole? The wa the choice Kyle Lowry had this year. I see alot… Read more »
Somebody deleted a recent comment I made. What was the reason?
Underdog – wasn’t me. What got deleted?
A much better comparison for Wiggins? TMac, who took a few years. I see Drew as more of a TMAC meets Scottie Pippen. But whatevs. I’m going to exhausted byou this debate by the time we’re done.
That Wiggins article above is eye opening – and loaded with advanced stats analysis.
“Ryan” posted this on another CtB thread:
For everyone advocating for wiggins, I think this is a good read:
http://deanondraft.com/2014/02/14/andrew-wiggins-an-ordinary-player-in-an-extraordinary-body/
It presents what’s to me a fairly compelling argument looking at the large risks involved with wiggins in terms of development. I know that the argument against this article is that wiggins is still young and much of what he lacks on offense can be taught. However, the comparison to Marvin Williams and Thaddeus Young is well taken and should definitely be considered.
Resurrecting this one on Embiid one more time:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1891203-meet-kansas-joel-embiid-a-cameroon-native-blossoming-into-a-top-nba-prospect
I’m taking Wiggins. When you look at the top 3 and ask which player do you see sliding out of the top 3 it’s either Embiid or Parker with Exum sliding in there place. Wiggins isn’t one of those players. He has every skill to be great. Defensiveily, athletically, offensively. What he needs to work on you can work on (dribbling, shooting) What Embiid needs to work on you cant (back) and what Parker needs to work on you either cant or decide not too ( athleticism, weight)
Agree Pedro. Perhaps I just suffer from dillusions of persecution, but it’s feels like the Cavs and Cleveland teams in general are always the floor mat for hack sports writers who are dependent on cliches to make up for their lack of independent thought and creativity. The Pistons have been a mess for seven years and they had a worse record than the Cavs this year with less assets and flexibility. Hell, they lost the 9th pick in this draft on the Ben Gordon cash dump. The 9th pick is often the sweet spot in the draft where top shelf… Read more »
Here is the Raoul view of what the Cavs should do now. 1. Don’t do anything until after the playoffs. The Great Colluder might well want to come back to the Cavs for obvious reasons. If so, that changes everything, and his opinion carries a lot of weight. 2. Otherwise, there is NO reason to be in “win now” mode. That is a sure way to derail a promising rebuild. 3. Then the key issue becomes resigning KI. Is KI going to become a superstar? Or, is going to be one of the many who could have been a superstar,… Read more »
Overall a pretty biased article, but it was a cathartic read for a lifelong Cleveland sports fan. Double plus good on calling out the hypocrisy of a Boston sports fan deriding the sports-based good fortune of another city. God, Simmons is unbearable. I will take great joy in watching him publicly endure Boston’s painful and slow rebuild. Good luck next year trotting out your all-world line-up of Sullinger, Olynick, Rondo’s one good knee, and PRESIDENT Brad Stevens. What a cock.
Steve- You note that the Cavs only have the Miani and Memphis picks- but overlook that they still have their own picks! We could be like the pistons or NYKs this season and be a lottery team with no pick. Also, our 2nd rounder this year is 5/6 slots higher than it ought to be. By bad luck, I think of Bynum being healthy but not even trying to contribute to winning, Jack starting even slower than he usually does, Bennett injury as he started to turn a corner, Dion freak injury as our team started to turn it around…if… Read more »
Nate- I’d love to see the splits on those RAPM stats for the first and second half of the season…I had that most stats treat the season as a single unit which doesn’t take into account pertinent factors (pre vs post-Bynum) or tell us the truly juicy info (is our young player growing over the course of the year???). Steve- pretty sneaky maaaan. You totally sidestepped the data and my point…recent Dion production is roughly on par with solid players (even with Klay being a year further in development!!) that are widely recognized as very good. Not quite elite, but… Read more »
Here’s the biggest problem with the entire Wiggins debate. Some people (myself included) believe he is a near-transcendent type player who will become a superstar. Some people don’t think so, so it makes perfect sense that they prefer Parker or Embiid. @Underdog I see the comparisons a little differently. Parker looks very much like a better shooting Luol Deng-type player, while I think Wiggins worst case scenario is an Andre Iguodala-type. Embiid is clearly a beast but I just worry about long-term back issues. @ Steve It’s hard to strip down and rebuild a team in 4 years…especially with mediocre… Read more »
U-Dog: Hakeem, without a doubt; no contest.
Ok. I’m convinced that we’re looking at these three guys in this draft: Hakeem Olajuwan, Vince Carter, and Paul Pierce. Assuming that I am absolutely correct – who would you pick? Hakeem? Carter? Or Pierce?
It’s just about health. Personally, I think the decision is easy. If Embiid’s back checks out, and he really is the total beast that everyone says, you take him. They need a rim protector (check), athleticism (check), and apparently he can even space the floor a bit (bonus). If there are concerns about his long term health, then you take Wiggins. Even his biggest detractors contend that he is an NBA-ready defender and will be a plus at that end of the court. That means you can give him plenty of burn while he figures out go-to moves and how… Read more »
Steve, not sure exactly what information you’re looking for but all of our RAPM data comes from Gotbuckets.com, a project started by myself, Tom, Kevin, and @laughingcavs. If you have any specific info that isn’t on that site, we could probably provide it for you.
Josh – It’s probably for the best if you don’t tell me what I’m thinking. I’m not sure where such antagonizing actually gets us. SwIrving – You can keep repeating that but I’m not seeing you back up how exactly. If you believe that if we had taken whoever at 8 (Knight I guess?) instead of getting Irving that we’d still have a bright future, I guess we’re not going to see eye to eye on this. I’m just not seeing how this franchise has a bright future if not Irving and whoever they get this year falling in their… Read more »
Steve – how much blame should Irving shoulder?
@Vesus Totally agree on Leonard. Pop turns trash into treasure. He highlights guys strengths and minimizes their weaknesses. The Spurs don’t have the top shelf talent or athletes of the other top teams, but they run their sets to pulverizing perfect. The spacing on the court is like a ballet. He’s the Belichick of the NBA. I’m not saying Leonard is trash, but if the Cavs drafted him at four he wouldn’t be close to the player we see today. Honestly, I’m fine with Embiid or Wiggins. I don’t care which one they take. I’d actually call Milwaukee up and… Read more »
Yeah what an incredible transformation by Boris Diaw when he went from the Bobcats to the Spurs.
Josh VS: “That he’s the best of the three” is not the right answer if it doesn’t meet what you’re looking for. When we say that the Cavs need a SF – we are really talking about a 3 point shooting floor spacing SF – because on this team Kyrie and Dion will be slashing / penetrating and kicking it out to that guy. The talent acquisition conversation now revolves around “fit” and the Cavs don’t need a third slasher. (I believe he’ll learn to shoot the 3 as well as LeBron or D Wade.) It’s not that he’s not… Read more »
Steve, yes, the future would still be bright for a non-large market team, just not contender bright, which most city’s aren’t. And why did we get Irving with that 2.8% chance? Because of ownership making a shrewd move to take on salary for the clippers pick! We aren’t a poorly run franchise in the least. Yeah, we aren’t the best, but not everyone can be san antonio. I’d take our managements decision making and ability to manage the cap/future assets over the Bucks, Kings, Magic, 76ers, Pelicans, Nets, Knicks, etc any freaking day.
This isn’t directed at anyone in particular, but I think it’s silly to suggest that Kawhi Leonard would have become a decent player here if we had drafted him. The Spurs organization is just head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league, they probably would have turned Jan Vesely into a beast.
Underdog – None of the three are lights out perimeter shooters, and you’re not taking anyone else. I think Wiggins has the best chance to develop into that, though. I can agree his passing needs work, but that seems like an easier thing to teach than most. I think Coach Karl would do a fine job there. And killer instinct is so vague and impossible to judge. I don’t like drafting based on intangibles. If everything else is equal, sure, but it’s not here. Wiggins is a better athlete than Parker and a lesser risk than Embiid. That said, I’ll… Read more »
The biggest knocks on Wiggins to me are: 3) not the floor spacing, lights out perimeter shooter we need – but a slasher . . . 2) not a passer or the type of player that makes his teammates better . . . and 1) the lack of a killer instinct (especially troubling).
I don’t care about his handle. Shouldn’t be dribbling anyway. Fastest on the planet with one dribble and two steps to the basket from the three point line is good enough for me.
I have Jabari Parker #3 on my list, but when I watched him – Paul Pierce quickly came to mind. I think he’s the surest thing and will help a team win sooner than the other two. Unlike Carmelo – he’s a good passer and he has a high basketball IQ (on offense). I think he’s athletic, but not athletic enough to do away with the “tweener” concern.
But here’s hoping the Embiid back thing is a smokescreen (to keep him from going to Memphis). However, he did, in fact, miss tournament games because of it.
“I think I’d still take Drummond with Jonas”
Now you’re just making things up.
Nate, is there any way to pull and organize different sets of RAPM? I’d have used RAPM instead of win shares in my numbers above, but it seems like it would take an incredibly long time to put all the data together.
Josh -that’s some twisted logic. The Clippers sold a 2.8% chance at Irving (and guarantee of at least some, though lesser, player) for $12M dollars. I don’t think we’d consider it bad management by the Clips if that pick ended up 8th. Vesus – I think I’d still take Drummond with Jonas. Maybe a bit unorthodox, but I think they could play together. And I’m seeing a lot of “well other players sucked too”, except the numbers show that there were players who have peformed better, some quite a bit better, than the guys we took. Pedro – like I… Read more »
I am trying to be a better person this season (by not calling anyone else an idiot).
Thanks to the rest of you for responding to Steve.
The lottery is working fine. The whole point is to ensure that tanking will not always pay off. It is doing exactly that. What is the problem?
Cleveland happened to get lucky for a change.
Oh, and one other thing. The biggest knock on Wiggins is his handle, right? Don’t we have the most talented ball handler in the NBA around to help teach him?
Look, I think Embiid might be awesome. A huge difference maker. But I’m SO scared of a Greg Oden situation (or, maybe more appropriately, a Brad Daugherty situation) that I just can’t see taking that risk.
Yeah the inability to give up the Kyrie/Dion hate each other narrative just drives me nuts. That narrative existed with LBJ and Wade until they won a championship (whose team is it?!), though, so I guess it’s not that unusual. Dion got better in pretty much every aspect of the game last year. His defense was even respectable by the end, I’d say. More of a net “meh” than a net “ew”. I think he bought into what coach Brown was teaching more than most others did, and it showed. Finally, I don’t think the FT% is anything to worry… Read more »
Oh, and this whole: Kyrie and Dion can’t play together meme? The national media who didn’t watch many Cavs games in the last two months of the season have totally glommed on to the narrative from the beginning of the season that is no longer completely true. Dion definitely improved as the season went on, but he still has some major holes in his game. His 69% field goal shooting is bad for a guard. His defense is up and down a lot. He is terrible at in-between shots (3-10 feet, he shot .288). His steal rate is just meh.… Read more »
@Arch Stanton
I’d still be cautious about Embiid. Back conditions can be degenerative. His back could be fine now. But in a few seasons, it could be worse than before.
Here’s my biggest issue with trading Dion: He is the only guy on the roster with any mental toughness, fire or just a desire to destroy the other team. I believe he has the “killer instinct” that guys like Kyrie and Wiggins lack.
Honestly, if this roster (as currently constructed, even with Wiggins/Embiid) is ever going to be great, I think Dion is the one who needs to take the leadership reins.
@ Josh VS
Deal. Oh, and I generally find myself in agreement with Nate Smith and Pestak, so pay attention when they write.
2014 RAPM
Dion Waiters: Offense: 1.0 Defense: -0.93 Total: -0.07
Klay Thompson: Offense: 1.36 Defense: -0.08 Total: 1.28
Bradley Beal: Offense: -0.24 Defense: -0.11 Total: -0.36
Waiters is definitely a lower tier than Thompson, but a better offensive player than Beal. Thompson’s defense is underrated.
These are whole season stats. Dion was an order of magnitude better in the second half of the season.
Definitely a Dion fan. I see no reason to trade him.
Interesting stat lines Pedro! Obviously defense counts, but just looking at those it seems Dion is potentially the best of the three. Who knew?
Vesus you and I seem to agree a lot. Let’s be friends.
Steve- I think you’re harsh on the Dion lovers. Which of these young players stats do you like more for the 2nd half of the season? Stats are per 48min Player A: 28.5 ppg on 47% shooting, 5 reb, 3 assists Player B: 22.5 ppg on 43% shooting, 5 reb, 4 assists Player C: 28.8 ppg on 46% shooting, 4 reb, 5.5 assists Players A and B are media darlings (and good players) Klay Thompson and Bradley Beal- player C is Dion. In the second half of the season, Dion’s play was on par with or better than Klay Thompson’s… Read more »
@SamAmicoFSO: Scouts at WMG workout wowed by Jabari Parker’s ball-handling, remarkable amount of space created on step-back J, 360 dunk to finish workout.
@SamAmicoFSO: One scout likened Jabari Parker to Paul Pierce, says #Cavs “gotta take this guy.” Another insisted Andrew Wiggins. A third said Joel Embiid.
@chadfordinsider: Just spoke with Embiid. Told me his back is 100 percent. Been working out hard for last 3 weeks.
@chadfordinsider: Embiid quickly re-asserting claim to # 1 pick here. Added muscle, still has quick feet & a beautiful jumper. No evidence of back issues
Oh, and good article, Tom. You made several points that I have been screaming at anyone willing to listen.
@ Steve I’m curious how you would have approached these drafts. Let’s say they took Jonas over Tristan. Perfectly defensible, maybe even preferable. Ok, but then you sure aren’t taking Drummond the next year. You aren’t taking Lillard either, since you have PG/C locked up. Bennett has underwhelmed, sure. It’s not like Oladipo and MCW have set the world on the fire – MCW only put up counting stats on a terrible team playing at high pace; not to mention (again) we already have a point guard. Maybe you prefer Otto Porter? (He still exists, btw) My point is that… Read more »
KJ – Simmons (who I think we all collectively hate) was raving about Embiid in his article today, and basically saying the back stuff is a smoke screen.
I still think we need to turn some of our pieces into an established guy, but if we use the #1, Embiid is my guy.
Yup, Hot Sauce, exactly the things I have been saying about Embiid in that article as well. I think the back stuff is a smokescreen at this point…
Btw, this was a fine article except for the Bennett stuff. You smart alecks remember the article where Thorpe wrote tha Bennett was probably gonna be an all-star? Yeah, he wrote that in the MIDDLE (used to designate emphasis, Natiepoo!) of Bennett’s season. Try and think like a scout…
Don’t try to pull a fast one on us and tailor your argument like were not smart enough to see through it.. OFCOURSE nobody wants pinnacle golds, but, had they been yellow Z-stars, well then I’d cry conspiracy, and so would you. #likehittingarock #likeslicingthroughbutter
Yeah regular Z-stars would be like John Wall. Yellow Z-Stars are basically Chris Paul but clutch in the playoffs.
That’s the thing Steve, the Cavs didn’t get lucky with the Clippers pick. The Clippers did…and they had the misfortune of bad management that decided to send away an unprotected pick. That’s not luck by the Cavs, that’s bad management by the Clips.
JJJJ – I don’t think using W/L is a complete measure of competence. If the Cavs don’t get lucky that the Clippers pick gets them Irving, are they the 9th worst record, or are they hanging around with the Sixers and Bucks? That’s not competence, the front office had a huge talent fall in their laps. I’m not arguing for either of those things. I’m not saying anybody “should” have won, because its a crapshoot. Anyone (this is referring to Simmons) who think that there is any deserving going on with the lottery is a dummy. I am saying that… Read more »
First, Tom, that was an amazing article. I hope Simmons reads it. Well written, and fantastic points all the way throughout. Just love it. Thanks for your work. Second, here’s how to fix the lottery: Make it totally random. Every team that doesn’t make the playoffs has an equal chance at every pick. All of a sudden it doesn’t matter if you have the worst record or the 9th worst, so there’s no motivation to try to be the worst. Yeah, sometimes the 9th seed in the west will get the top pick. You might get a bit of tanking… Read more »
Josh VS – that’s actually a very simple and would definitely tilt the incentive scales away from the epic tankfests. I’m wondering if, much like Greg Oden struck the fear of God into anyone looking to draft a Center #1, if this draft could possibly be the one that finally gets teams to stop. Like, if the number 6 or 7 guy turns out to be the best one of this draft (completely possible) and the Cavs of all teams got the #1 pick – maybe teams will think twice before mortgaging 3 seasons to asset acquisition mode. Thanks for… Read more »
The Celtics were utterly incompetent from 93-97 and Simmons is still bitter that the Celtics didn’t get Duncan in 97 after tanking their ever-loving asses off to 15 wins. They “competitively” tanked this season and ended up with the 6th pick.
Karma is an interesting thing. It’s like faith in a deity. We want to absolve ourselves of control.
Agree with these scouts. They nail my concerns with Wiggins. “He can be your third-best player, but not your best. Say he goes to Orlando. What’s he going to do as an offensive player? Shoot them to more wins?”
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ryen-russillos-nba-draft-confidential-real-scouts-on-wiggins-randle-embiid-and-parker/
Completely agree and glad that someone who has the opportunity (through this site) to point out the hypocrisy of Simmons’ position has done so. I enjoy Simmons’ articles, and like the fact that he offers a sometimes irrational fan’s perspective on things – but his “Karma rankings article” I stopped reading after a couple of paragraphs. After starting by listing characteristics of a team who deserves good Karma (not tanking, etc) he then proceeds to put Cleveland last despite matching the vast majority of his criteria?!?!? One of my pet peeves is that I HATE it when people refer to… Read more »
Good comment, James Simmons. Especially this part: The lottery isn’t intended to determine who deserves to get the top picks, it is simply a way of trying to restore competitive balance. If a team continually makes poor picks why do their fans deserve to be banned from getting another pick simply because a jealous sports writer thinks incompetence shouldn’t be rewarded??? If that’s the case give the top pick to the Spurs each year!!! The problem of incompetent ownership is completely separate from the reason’s behind a balance restoring draft process. Quite honestly, the draft is working exactly as it… Read more »
Steve, STFU. Who would the cavs have picked to make them significantly better? Jonas is not significantly better than TT, if better at all. Drummond would have been a bigger reach than Dion and he still can’t hit a free throw or help Detroit win. Bennett sucked, but no one else they would have taken would have moved the needle either. We won the pong balls in shitty drafts. Circumstances matter. And not very often is any team lead to the playoffs by a bunch of 22 and under players. The thunder were an anomaly, and were far luckier in… Read more »
Steve – I didn’t say this year proves the least competent teams don’t win. I said it proves they don’t ALWAYS win. Using wins/losses as a measure of competence the Cavs were more competent than 8 other teams (yes, I realize that’s nothing to celebrate). It’s not clear to me what you’re arguing for. Are you saying a team lower in the draft should have won, or are you saying a team higher in the draft with less luck in previous years should have won? As for the draft picks, I disagree that the Cavs ended up with much less… Read more »
I have, in the past, advocated changing the draft so that teams that consistently lose can’t keep getting high picks, but I was wrong, and not because Cleveland keeps winning them. What if a team has a Len Bias/Reggie Lewis style tragedy? Should the NBA suddenly say, “ok, you get an exception. You can get a top pick.” Then you get a team that has a draft pick have career ending injury. Do they get an exception? Suddenly, the commissioner is in the business of picking winners and losers, and that is always a bad situation. I don’t know what… Read more »
I think that Simmons was more upset as a Celtics fan than anything. I’m sure if the Celtics were in the playoffs he would have just liked the story.
The most fustrating thing is Nobody mentions that winning last years lottery is the equivalent of picking 10th this year. Maybe 8th. I mean their was no Wiggins, Embiid, Parker, Exum, Randle, Gordon, Smart, or Vonlhen. It was choosing between Mcdermott and Zach Lavine
JJJJ – I’d say this year doesnt do anything to prove that the least competent teams dont win. The Cavs were one of the least competent teams out there. Yeah, they made moves that suggested they werent tanking, but there were more than a few nights where the play on the court resembles the Sixers or Bucks. And thats what people are frustrated about. The Cavs have been quite lucky with the lottery balls, but still put out a fairy crappy team, and are now going to reap even more a reward. And you can make as many excuses as… Read more »
Very entertaining and interesting (but lacking nuance). Just how utterly messed up would it have been to sneak into the playoffs and miss all this….?
Agree on Simmons. The only thing this year proves is that the least competent teams don’t always win. His bitterness over the Celtics missing out is pretty transparent. Zach Lowe got it right when he said the same system that gave Cleveland 3 picks in 4 years also made this outcome extremely unlikely. It’s not a flaw in the system, just luck.
That’s a bingo. Great article. Simmons contradicted himself and pouted like a four year old who didn’t get to wat chocolate for breakfast. Somehow he justifies that the Celtics didn’t tank this season and were deserving of a top three pick. It’s a weighted lottery. Silver didn’t hand Cleveland the #1 pick, they lucked out. If you ran the lottery 99 more times the Cavs are probably drafting 9th.