Live Thread: Cavs @ Hawks, ECF Game 1

It’s been a long week. If you’re like me, you didn’t know what to do with yourself while the Cavs weren’t playing. Fortunately, we hoops junkies get our fix tonight, as the Cavs take on the Hawks. Some great storylines heading into this one: Kyrie seems to be at the healthiest he’s been in a few weeks, according to Chris Fedor of the Northeast Ohio Media Group.

I feel good,” Kyrie Irving said. “This is a lot of days resting and getting treatment but also finally feeling good and actually being out there with my teammates preparing again. It’s a totally different mindset than being in the training room or being on the court watching film. Now it’s time to get started, roll the basketball out and go play.”

That’s good to hear, and it’s a key factor for this playoff series. When taking a look at the matchups, peak Kyrie is superior to Jeff Teague, but the Kyrie we saw for most of the Bulls series comes out on the negative side. I believe the week off is going to do wonders for Kyrie (He’s only 23. He still heals like a young guy.)

Speaking of matchups, lets throw all analytics out the window and look at these guys from the gut.

PG, Irving vs. Teague:  At a 15.3 ppg average, 7.4 assists, and 3 turnovers, Teague stirs the drink for the Hawks, but his shooting has been spotty. In the playoffs, he’s at 40%/35%/80% for his shooting splits, and he’ll definitely put up a stinker every now and again. A gimpy Kyrie still shoots better than a healthy Teague. Irving’s 43%/46%/86% splits to go with his 19.8 points per game in the playoffs and his 3.3 assists and 1.6 turnovers definitely help stretch the field for the Cavs. Given Irving’s recovering status, and Teague’s very play in the playoffs this matchup is probably a wash.

SG, Kyle Korver vs. Iman Shumpert: Korver’s shooting numbers have bottomed out: 39%/35%/77% far below his regular season percentages of 49%/49%/90%, leading some to wonder if Korver is nursing a secret injury or if his Mike Miller-esque 34 years have finally caught up with him. Shump’s numbers have ticked up slightly in the playoffs as he’s at 10 points per game, and he’s gone from 67% at the line to 90% at the line. But his defense has been other-worldly. It remains to be seen if he sticks on Korver. I imagine Blatt will switch around the matchups to confuse the Hawks. I’m giving the nod to Shump, because he can switch onto anyone and guard everyone on the Hawks except Horford Sorry, Kyle. Age is undefeated.

SF, LeBron James vs. DeMarre Carroll: Yeah, no need to go too deep into this one. The question is, can Carroll’s smoking hot three point shooting (52%/44%/81%) in the payoffs continue and keep the Cavs’ defense honest. Carroll’s making teams pay for sagging off him, and stopping DeMarre is going to be a big task for the King. Cutting into Carroll’s 17 ppg and 6.8 rpg per game average is going to be key to stopping the Hawks. James is the greatest basketball player in the world, so he has the advantage, but it’s not as great as you might think.

PF, Paul Millsap vs. Tristan Thompson: Millsap scores well, but the Wizards figured out how to guard him, holding him to 40%/21%/76% and 15.7 ppg. His task will be keeping Tristan off the boards. Tristan’s need to chase Millsap out to the three point line may help him with that on defense, but Thompson’s athleticism may prove too much for Millsap on the offensive boards. In 37 minutes per game, Thompson averaged 8.3 and a whopping 11.2 rebounds to go with a 54%/0%/83% free throw shooting splits (you read that last number correctly). I’ll give the slight edge to Millsap because of his ability to pass, shoot, rebound and score, but TT’s energy makes it almost even.

C, Al Horford vs. Timofey Mozgov: This is the matchup that most favors Atlanta. Horford is one of the best 20-foot jump shooters in the league, and that was what killed the Cavs in the Bulls series. Mozgov has to chase Horford out to the perimeter. Horford averages 15.6 points, 9.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.8 blocks in the playoffs, and it dwarfs Mozgov’s 8.5 points and 7.4 boards. Timo’s 2.2 blocks will fall, and his .435% playoff field goal percentage has to improve. Hopefully Timo’s offense returns, and the Cavs force the Hawks to match up with him, instead of the othre way around, because right now, this looks like it’s a big plus for Horford.

Al Horford Shot Chart

Bench, Cavs vs. Hawks. in the regular season, you’d give this to the Hawks, but with Delly and Smith, the Cavs have a slight edge. Yes, Schröder is a waterbug, but the Hawks are a net negative with him on the floor in the playoffs. In addition, the Hawks have been playing three bench player lineups that have been killing them, according to Hawks/Hoop’s Jeff Siegel.

Budenholzer has regularly rolled out lineups with three of the Dennis Schröder, Kent Bazemore, Mike Muscala, and Pero Antic bench brigade in these playoffs, and they have regularly gotten killed while out there. The three-man combination of Schröder, Bazemore, and Antic has played 75 minutes in the postseason, posting a ghastly -10.2 net rating, per nbawowy.com, and lineups featuring Schröder, Bazemore, and Muscala have fared even worse with a -11.1 net rating in 25 minutes. It’s understandable that Budenholzer wants to spell his starters, but he needs to avoid these lineups that takes too many of them off the court at a time.

The Cavs rarely make that mistake, with Delly and JR rotating in with the starters (and JR being a starter for much of the season), and the third rotation guy being being James Jones. Count me among those that think Jones won’t be the liability most think he will. Jones defends on the perimeter, and has been a solid, if not spectacular team defender. If the Hawks choose to post him up or put him in islolations, it takes them out of their offense. Edge: Cavs.

Coaching Blatt vs. Budenholzer. On paper, you’d pick Bud, but with the way LeBron has controlled the last two games, you have to think his cloor coaching could make up the difference.