The Randoms: Finals Edition

This post marks the start of a semi-regular series by yours truly. I’m dubbing it, “The Randoms:” my random thoughts on the NBA and whatever. Here goes.
In the pantheon of bad hot takes, there’s a wing devoted entirely to second guessing success. The mental gymnastics professional sports pundits are going through over Andre Iguodala’s game sealing triple last night should definitely have its own exhibit.

Analysts knocking Iggy’s WIDE-FREAKING-OPEN three pointer because there were five or so seconds left on the shot clock when the ball went in the basket are baffling me. The few extra seconds left on the shot clock by not winding it down to the end are meaningless. The Raps were doing something I always yell at teams for not doing: paying attention to the shot clock.

Iggy surprised them by taking that shot when he did and won the game. How can you second guess that? If he misses, is it still a good shot? Maybe. Maybe not. Was the make random chance or fate? The Warriors have a shot at a long rebound and Toronto is unlikely to get a runout out of it given the Warriors’ perimeter spacing and that the Raps were mostly around the basket. But it doesn’t matter. We don’t live in the universe where Igoudala missed, we live in the one where he made it. He played to win instead of playing not to lose. As a famous poet once wrote, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”

The dopey takes of Stan “what if” Van Gundy and Max Kellerman (who should know better, but probably had to play Devil’s advocate anyway) are the worst parts of sports punditry: second guessing success. In case I need to remind you, Andre Iguodala is a freaking finals MVP. The Cavs dared him to beat them in 2015, and he did. Mercilessly. Also, there’s this.

Andre Iguodala owns the best plus-minus in the NBA Finals over the last 5 years (+164).

Not Steph Curry.

Not Klay Thompson.

Not Draymond Green.

— Paul Hembekides (@PaulHembo) June 3, 2019

Argh. Anyway, not enough people are focusing on Nurse’s baffling decision not to foul Dray as soon as he crossed half court. Green, despite the base9 triple double, was part of the group that made Nick Nurse’s box-and-1 defense on Steph so successful because Green and everyone else were afraid to shoot. Additionally, Dray was 0-2 on the night and 5-6 from the line. With only a couple seconds remaining between the end of the shot clock and the end of the game clock, an early foul gives your team many more chances to extend the game. It’s what Nurse should have done, because it prevents a game sealing play like Iguodala made.

Nurse outcoached Budenholzer badly in the ECF, but Kerr, after a Game 1 feelout game, got the better of Nick. The Warriors took advantage of the Raptors overplaying Steph Curry and used Steph to set off-ball screens and set up far too easy baskets for the Raptors’ bigs. This off-ball screening is what Ben Werth is always talking about when he goes over what separates good guards from great guards. Guards like Delly (not that he’s “great”), Lowry, Curry, Stockton, etc. use their gravity to set screens to get teammates easy baskets and make the offense unpredictable enough to keep defenses off balance.

Nurse also should’ve taken a timeout much sooner into Golden State’s 18-0 run to start the third. We sure as hell know Ty Lue would’ve called a rage timeout a minute sooner to stem the tide. Kerry rightfully knew that the best time to attack a home team is right after halftime before the fans get to their seats, and after Nurse’s timeout when the Dubs ran off seven straight, started running his counter-sets to blow up the lead even more. It was a blitzkrieg and won Golden State the game. Also, it’s a FINALS GAME AGAINST A TEAM THAT’S WON THREE OF THE LAST FOUR FINALS! HOW ARE YOU NOT IN YOUR SEATS, RAPTORS FANS? A little too much celebrating and feeling your oats for Toronto and its fans.

“You come at the King, you best not miss,” Omar’s famous line from The Wire opines. The Raptors whiffed badly in the third, and it could cost them the series. That’s how thin the margin is against the Warriors. Toronto finally had a chance to relax for the first time in weeks. It cost them dearly.

If it seems like I’m rooting for the Warriors here, God help me, I am. I don’t know why, but Toronto irritates me. Maybe I want the 2016 to be that much more special, and I feel it will be if no one else can touch the Warriors. Maybe I just want my predictions to be right. I can’t say why, but I’m certainly conflicted. I still think anyone not named Iguodala or Cook on that team is a douche though.

Speaking of Cook, how many teams did he play with before he stuck with the Dubs? Four? Five? He hit three enormous shots against the Raptors and showed why player development and commitment matters. It also showed why you want players on your team who work hard and are intelligent and mentally tough enough to play in high pressure situations. I’m not sure how many of those guys are at the top of this draft.

I often wonder if high level AAU players are the road to NBA success. In looking at the Raptors, few of these guys were highly regarded in High School and the draft. But if anything is a differentiator, it’s that length, strength, intelligence, work ethic, and decent base mechanics matter in the long run more than high level skills in college. Color me very skeptical on the likes of Ja Morant, Cam Reddish, Rui Hachimura, and Darius Garland for these reasons.

Speaking of Ja, he’s locked into the Grizzlies. There’s no way that dude would have gotten knee surgery if he wasn’t. As for R.J. Barrett, I’m skeptical if the Cavs should move up to take him if the Knicks dangle an offer. 5 and 25 for the third? 5 and the JR Smith contract for the third and Lance Thomas and <insert bad contract(s) here>? I don’t know. Barrett reminds me of Danny Manning: a player who was much better in college than the pros. Conversely, Manning probably would’ve had a better career playing now instead of then. He, like Barrett, always seemed like one of those guys who was good at a lot of things instead of great at anything.

Barrett reportedly turned down working out for the Grizzlies because he wants to play for the Knicks. I’m not sure he’d love being on the Cavs, and I’m not sure he’s any better than Culver, Hunter, or Barrett. I do know, the Cavs should not be taking a short, shoot first point guard, or a guy who’s biggest weakness is “caring.”

That’s all for now Cavs fans. Until next time…