Pre-Trade Deadline Win Streak – What’s it mean?
2012-03-12
Following an improbable, highly exciting three game win streak against Western Conference teams best characterized as somewhere between good and excellent; the Cavs are one game outside of the 8th seed in the East. Six of their remaining eleven March games are against teams with winning percentages below five-hundred. Anderson Varejao should return later this month. The trade deadline is a few days away – how should the Cavs respond?
While I’m not a proponent of “tanking”, the Cavs still need to focus on the future. I am super psyched about the three recent wins, especially against OKC (seriously – who saw that coming?), but the sixteen games in twenty four days in April is daunting and could very well leave this young Cleveland team outside-looking-in regardless of their mid-March moves. For me, the win streak hasn’t changed the view on trade deadline questions.
Trading Sessions still seems to be the right move. After this season, his player option likely won’t be picked up. Acquiring a first round draft pick beats the value of twenty-seven more games of Ramon.
Moving Jamison as part of a three team trade, even at the expense of taking back a contract with a year or two left on it, can have benefits. If the right deal doesn’t surface though; move on, enjoy the rest of Antawn’s time in Cleveland, and try free agency this summer.
Don’t trade anything that could be useful in the future, solely for a 2012 playoff push. Chris Kaman trade rumors come to mind.
I look forward to hearing other’s thoughts on the win streak and if it changes your perceptions of the 2012 trade deadline.
the MLE is still at 5 million or so, so there will be teams after him for at least that much.
Jag, I expect him to opt out of cleveland because he will make at least 5 million/yr somewhere, and that is more than the cavs should spend on a back-up to Kyrie. Also, if sessions has the option to play here or elsewhere for a similar contract, he’ll likely pick the team he has a chance to start with. A.K.A. elsewhere.
My comment seems to be on some form of a “timeout punishment” so here’s the gist of my response:
4 ROY’s in last 50 years came from outside the top 10: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Rookie_of_the_Year_Award
Chance of drafting an all-star in the draft: http://www.dollarsforballers.com/draft/allstarsdraft.html
Draw your own conclusions
There is something I think many people are missing regarding Sessions not picking up his player option to stay with the Cavs. The teams that need a PG next year for the most part are over the CAP. They will not be able to pay him much more than his player option if they can even pay as much. I don’t see him getting big money to go elsewhere and isn’t that why most of us expect him to opt out of Cleveland?
Posted a comment on lottery/all-star/ROY statistics – Why does it say my “comment is awaiting moderation?”
Agreed on the big man thing, but it is no longer a big man’s league. Well, maybe it is if you count Nowitzki.
HoopsDogg, Besides Lebron, each of those players either was a top ten big man of all time or played with a top ten big man of all time. The Cavs need to find one of those… I guess one thing we can agree on and really the thing that has made the trade deadline so important (twice I’ve posted something deadline related that’s drawn 60+ comments) is that Kyrie is great. Re-building has been made tons easier, and the important re-building decisions came so much sooner, due to drafting him with the first lottery pick of the re-build. It’s very… Read more »
When Has a 22 year old ever led a team to a championship: Magic Johnson (team admittedly already loaded). But LeBron led Cleveland to a finals at 22. Shaq was 23 his first finals, as was Dwayne Wade (Winner/MVP). Tim Duncan was 23. Hakeem Olajawan was 24. Kareem was 24. Bill Rusell 23. Tony Parker 21, 23, and 25 (debateable equivalency). The scary thing about this: only Magic, Wade, and Parker were guards. Tony Parker probably most resembles Kyrie out of this group, but he had Duncan, Robinson, and Manu. Kyrie’s a better shooter though. I realize we’re discussing rarified… Read more »
@ Mallory As far as a trade for Jamison; if there’s a way to pull off this rumored trade of Josh Smith and Marvin Williams for Sessions and Jamison that I’ve heard about, I think the Cavs should do it. Even throwing in the Miami Heat 2013 1st round pick, if needed. Josh Smith would replace Antwan’s scoring. Williams shores up the 3. He’s solid on both sides of the ball and shooting %40 on 3pt this season. Smith and Williams are known quantities, as opposed to unknown lottery picks (certainly, we’ve had that discussion). Best of all, if I’ve… Read more »
HoopsDogg, To some extent, I’m more concerned with signing free agents to 4 year contracts this summer or in summer of 2013. Once Baron Davis comes off Cleveland’s minimum salary hold, the Cavs only have 3 players under contract for $19 million in 2013 – 2014. Even accounting for 2012 and 2013 1st round draft picks, they’re going to need to pay someone currently unknown $25 – $30 million in 2013 – 2014. If those contracts extend until 2015 – 2016 or 2016 – 2017, then the Cavs really have an issue with rookie extensions butting up against the luxury… Read more »
HoopsDogg, I unspammed your post. I don’t think anyone is trying to wait until 2016 to be a contender, but realistically in the 2014 post-season, Kyrie will have just turned 22. Has a 22 year old ever lead a team to a championship? Also, I disagree that anyone doesn’t know how good Kyrie is. I think everyone acknowledges that he is awesome, but what does that mean? They need to go all in trying to create a contender in the next two seasons? I don’t know how that makes any sense. If the Cavs win 48 games in 2013 –… Read more »
If they don’t trade Sessions now, we will watch him walk away for nothing. It wouldn’t be a good move for a team that’s trying to gather assets. Plus, his trade value is pretty high at the moment.
I say maybe trade Sessions but if we win tomorrow then I dont know if we should
Matt –
I agree COMPLETELY that we’ve got two very professional players in Kyrie and Verajao. What that means for the future remains to be seen (obviously)
But would you trade Jamison for a second round pick? I really don’t think I would. The only way I see Antawn going is if we can pull off a huge trade. I happen to think a big shakeup for a guy that could potentially be around for a little longer is probably our best move. How it gets done, I don’t know.
Antawns un-reproducible shooting and turnstyle defense won’t be missed, especially from a mentoring standpoint. He may be able to lend insight to young guys about how to behave off the court, but he can teach them little of value on it. Also mallory, Winning and losing culture to me seems to be more about the ethos and personality of the leaders on a team. When the most talented guys on the team take their profession seriously, you have a winning culture, when they care more about bling and ho’s and branding, you don’t. Kyrie and Verajoa are both extremely serious… Read more »
Whoooooops – Lamb Beal or Rivers ARE surefire pros. Gaaaahhhh I need to wake the heck up.
John – What proof do you have that Lamb, Rivers, Or Beal is surefire pros? You don’t. Remember Wesley Johnson? I’m sure Minnesota does too. You have no way of knowing how good those guys will be. Frankly, I think you’re misinterpreting my desires to see us win as bring prisoner of the moment. I have always said that I am fine with losing, but prefer to win. If we must lose, let it happen naturally. Hoopsdogg made a great point that is trapped in the monster right now (Kevin has to unleash it) about just how good Kyrie is.… Read more »
I think that the Cavs have a huge shot at winning the games this year guys… We sure have acted like a team lately and I feel like Sessions has made a huge contrubution to our team… I think we might have a chance to make it to the playoffs this year because the knicks are losing and we are winning so why talk about the future when we still have a chance this year i mean we are only 1 game behind and still like 29 games to go… We seem to have done well right now and im… Read more »
Mallory – Have you watched Lamb, Rivers, or Beal play? Lamb and Rivers are top 5 talents in last years draft. Did I say all 3 were going to be stars? No, but all 3 are scorers that can create their own shots and upgrade the most glaring need on our roster. Would you rather: – Get swept by the Bulls (avg per game differential -30 against them this yr)/win maybe 1 home game vs the Heat (avg per game differential -16) and draft Meyers “Robin Lopez Jr” Leonard OR – Miss the playoffs and draft one of the 3… Read more »
Someone retrieve my diatribe about how “2016 is a horrible goal” from the comment monster, will you please?
Also, I want to be clear that I’m not arguing for Jamison to stay (maybe a little, but only because I think we need to keep someone who can score around). I’m actually legitimately asking these questions because I simply don’t know the answers.
As for 2016, I think that’s a terrible terrible goal. The goal should be much shorter since we’ve already gotten the franchise guy. The problem with 2016 is that 2014-2015 is the last year that Kyrie and Tristan are on their rookie deals. After that, tack 10 million per onto Kyrie’s deal, and who knows what else on top of Tristan’s deal. We want to be be contender ready by 2013-2014. Andy will want a new deal, if he’s still on the team, and anyone who we sign right now will probably want a new deal too. Oklahoma City is… Read more »
But do you think 25 games of Kyrie dishing to Casspi, only to have him brick a shot, will affect it?
Mallory,
I don’t think 25 games worth of mentoring will define the Cavs’ future.
Really, the simplest answer to all of the debate is just seeing Antawn go. If he goes, we have no real shot at doing anything against the better teams in the east and probably fall to that 6-8 slot.
But trading Jamison begs the question – does his professionalism bring something to the table that would be lost if he left? I have to believe that he’s at least mentoring our young guys – how important is a mentor to the growth of a young player?
Whoops about that closer to seeing – meant to delete it.
Kevin – I agree with you completely on projecting our future. It’s silly to look farther than one year anyway – so many things could happen to create a vastly different landscape than the one we’re looking at now. No matter what, I think we should be competing next year. If we can do it this year, I’ll be happy, but if not, I’m not going to be destroyed.
There is no reason to be the 8th seed in the playoffs and get rocked by the Heat or Bulls…not my cup of tea.
I know people compare the Cavs this year to the Bulls of a few years ago, but remember…the Bulls had young pieces in Deng AND Noah when they drafted Rose.
I don’t care about Jamison, Parker, or Gibson getting back to the playoffs. This team needs a high pick to improve. Jamison, who is doing alot of our heavy lifting, is going to be out the door this summer.
Lets be clear about two things: One – The only reason we can even say “missing the playoffs a whopping 2 years in a row” is because Kyrie is such a supreme talent that we even have a shot. Now if Kyrie is even a quarter less of a star than he currently is, we’re probably talking about tanking for Davis. Two – Like I said before, I am completely in support of trading Sessions. If this means we lose more games, then I guess so be it. I would not make the trade for anything less than a first… Read more »
Kevin,
I agree with Matt that debating what the team should do, especially during a re-building time, is half the fun of being a fan. That’s just an opinion obviously. Watching the Cavs beat the Thunder is also alot of fun though.
It looks like Matt and I are on the same page on most of this one. It will be interesting to see what happens at the trade deadline.
I’m impressed by all the discussion on this. Lots of people are really engaged in the team right now. In my mind, there’s certainly a difference between trading Sessions & Jamison and tanking. Any trade involving Jamison has something coming back to Cleveland. Some rumors of trading Sessions involve something coming back. Also Varejao will return. If Sessions and Jamison are traded, Cleveland will be allright for the last 25 games of this season. The team will continue to be inconsistent, winning games it shouldn’t and losing games it should, and the culture won’t be ruined in under six weeks.… Read more »
Kevin I’m taking what they’re giving me, I’ve got no problem with how the season has played out thus far, but debating sports and strategy is at least half the fun of being a fan. And Mallory, every small market team that’s competed for a championship recently has done it with a core obtained through the draft, high picks or not. Thats all I know. Well I also know that with all the picks coming up we will draft a couple duds, which is why we should get as many picks as possible, so we can cast the duds aside… Read more »
Man, why can’t we just watch the games and see what happens. Bitching isn’t going to keep the team from winning or losing–we have no power to affect any of the results. Just watch and take what the team gives you!
As far as the losing culture you are so concerned about Mallory and Antawn, I just don’t see it. Kyrie has been sooo special so far I just can’t see him ever being a satisfied loser. He’s Hungry, and Andy doesn’t have quit in him. They compete hard every night, and kyrie takes over in the 4th. I’m just not concerned that when the talent is there, that Kyrie and Andy won’t be able to push that talent to near maximum. I could be wrong, I just don’t see it. Again, if they were taking games off to tank on… Read more »
Sorry for the grammar issues today, by the way guys – I’m doing a million things at once.
Matt – I think what you (and so many others) fail to see is the amount of luck it takes to become a true contender. Getting multiple stars in the draft is FAR more difficult than being smart and making moves based on the makeup of a team. You seem to suggest that there is one way to build a team, and that’s by being bad until the time is right. I’m not sure where your proof is that this is the right method, but I can’t think of a team that did it this way, especially intentionally. As Antawn… Read more »
I still think that we should try to get that Minny pick (even if its protected) so we don’t have to worry about making the playoffs.
just so you know mallory, I would like us to be competing by 2014, not 2016, but I would also like us to be competing in both of those years and beyond. I don’t see how setting the championship as the main goal, and planning to build a base that will compete for it for the long haul, is “no way to root for a team”. Maybe not when you are an adolescent, but when you are a grown man rooting for a Cleveland championship, you know how hard it is and you know how rare it is to set… Read more »
I think a lot of people are making some assumptions in thinking that our team will be much better in the coming years and all of the other teams will be worse. Jamison is our leading scorer and he will be gone. Andy was having his best season before the injury and he should be coming back rested and healthy before the end of the regular season. Kyrie is already playing like one of the superior PGs in the league so it will be tough to increase our expectations drastically. And, above all, the Cavs are playing like a team.… Read more »
I also want to make something completely clear – I don’t think it was the fact that we tried to spend money that made Cleveland a bad team during the Lebron era – that’s a common misconception. It was WHO we spent money on that made us bad. Instead of making smart signings we spend crazily on players who weren’t worth even close to what they should be.
I think if Grant believes Wilson Chandler is worth 11 mil a year, then he might actually be worth 11 mil a year, even to us.
Matt –
I’m not talking about appeasing Kyrie’s happiness, I’m talking about the culture of a team. How long does a team have to lose, and how long does a player have to fail to make a leap, before you consider that team a bottom feeder.
I guess a good question to ask is, do you think if Kyrie was drafted by SAC or Washington (instead of Wall) he’d have as great an impact?
I feel like right now culture is as big a part of this team winning as any individual player is…
Mallory, I’d do that trade because I don’t see Minny (even without Rubio) falling THAT far.
There is absolutely NO pressure this offseason. Kyrie can get unhappy all he wants, he’s not going anywhere for 4 and a half years. Its much more important to make sure he’s happy in year 5 of his deal than year 2 and we’d best remember that. Do we need to do everything we can to contend before Kyrie’s rookie deal is up? absolutely, and to be safe it’d be best to compete in 14/15 so he can sign an extension before his rookie deal is up, but there is absolutley no pressure to prove anything to Kyrie until the… Read more »
If you guys have set 2016 as the prize…I…I’m left speechless. I’m writing about this for the near future, but you can’t possibly be content to write that. That’s no way to root for a team, regardless of how you believe a championship team is built. If you watch sports for that far in the future, what’s the point of even watching at all? I admit I was wrong about the last three games, but, honestly, did anyone see the Cavs beating Denver and OKC at home, and then kicking Houston’s butt? I seriously doubt a single person believed that… Read more »
I hadn’t heard the New Orleans trade rumor. Probably won’t happen, but I’d suppor that trade. Bring in Okafor for a couple of years to maintain some legitimate NBA talent on the front line while not tying up cap space past 2014… draft two wings in the lottery this year…let the Irving, Gee, Thompson, two lottery wing core grow for a couple of years…keep working via trade or free agency on a long term addition to the frontcourt. Works for me.
Obviously I don’t agree with tanking, and I’ve already said I would take an overachieving, undertalented team to the opposite (a la Washington) every day of the week and twice on Sundays. I just feel this is still a team that will be picking in the 8-9 range, and I would easily choose that over the 15th pick and getting swept by the Heat. Sure, there isn’t much difference between 12 and 15, but there’s a big difference between 8 and 15. There are a ton of teams with winning percentages close to ours, and four games could be the… Read more »
I can’t see why we would take the trade if the pick was protected – Okafor isn’t viewed as a piece for the long distance future (this could be debated, but I’m assuming that’s the general view point) so the Cav’s brass probably wouldn’t do it for anything less than a pick this draft. I’m also under the assumption that, Given Kyrie’s progress this season, the front office is probably most interested in making some impact this off season – the idea is, when you know you’ve got a star talent, not to leave him with makeshift pieces for too… Read more »
(the NO trade of course)
Yeah if that trade were to somehow happened I’d instantly become a non-tanker. Do you think that New Orleans would more likely accept that trade if they made the pick top 5 or top 6 protected?
I still would love a shot to get Marvin Williams–Sessions and Cavs 2nd (the 2nd one) to ATL for Williams and ATL’s 1st rounder? I don’t know why I am so high on Williams, I think a change of scenery would do him a world of difference. We get to keep Jamison, add Williams and a #1 for Sessions–he isn’t sticking around after the season anyhow. This could be a great steal for us…imagine still making the postseason and playing Miami in the first round? I think the Q would come unglued!
Iso – Although I’ve read the Okafor trade is unlikely to happen, I see that scenario as the best possible – Okefor is actually a pretty decent player. Imagine a front court of him and Andy – that’d be some scary D.
Matt – I have always advocated for trader Sessions and Jamison for draft picks – don’t get my desire to win confused with a desire to hang on to assets. That being said, if I had to trade Jamison for a mid second round pick, I wouldn’t do it. Anything worse than a first isn’t worth it. He’s literally the only consistent scorer for Kyrie to rely on – we don’t want to force Kyrie to do too much too soon – he’s still young and impressionable. I’d rather see him score 20 points evenly over four quarters than become… Read more »
Hoopsdogg – Samardo has had a few good games recently. He’s not going to blow anyone away, but he’s played some OK hustle D and hit a couple shots here and there, which, at his talent level, is about all you can ask for.
Constantly trying to be the best we could possibly be RIGHT NOW all the time during the lebron years killed us. Even if he would have stayed, he was right in recognizing we had little flexibility to help his supporting cast in the next 2 years, and had a hard time bringing in free agents, even with a premier talent on hand. Lets learn from history and not repeat it. Lets use our uniquely human skill and sacrifice a little now for a lot of good later. Lets get good players on the cheap the only way we can, through… Read more »
A win-win situation for both the tankers and the non-tankers would be (if the rumors are true) to trade Antawn Jamison (and maybe something like the Hornets 2nd round pick or Heat 1st) for Emeka Okafor and their Minny pick. Than we could get a lottery pick and still make the playoffs. Plys, if we end up getting picks around 10 and 15, and the cavs want someone at 5-6, we would have enough assets to trade up. But I doubt NO does that trade.
Mallory, I honestly am starved for a championship, and could really care less about making the playoffs when we have about a 1% chance of getting past the first round, and roughly 0% chance of winning the whole thing. You say I’m jaded, I say I have my eye on the prize. I’ve seen tons of playoffs in my existence as a cavs fan, and its just not enough. According to Kevin’s article you reference, if we trade sessions and/or jameson for a 1st round pick towards the end of the round, thats a 40% at adding a solid rotation… Read more »
“It looks like Samardo is finally becoming the backup ‘big’ we thought he could be, Jamison is the scoring machine we expected, Casspi can be a really, really good guy off the bench” OK Mallory. I want some of the E you were on when you watched that game last night. One game is NOT a trend. I feel like quoting Winston Wolf here, but I’ll spare you. As for the draft, it is supposed to be a very good one. This year’s Jeremy Lamb would’ve been a top five pick last year. Harrison Barnes would’ve been 2-3, and this… Read more »
I should say that WANTS to win AND is willing to fight to win. That’s a big deal in my book.
John – do you really think Lamb, Beal, AND Rivers are going to be stars? Realize what you’re saying – you’d take all three of those guys, knowing that the chances that they’re more than just serviceable is relatively low, over seeing a rookie lead time challenge for the playoffs? C’mon – how cynical can you possibly be? None of us know how those guys are going to turn out – all we can know is the present, and in the present we have a team that WANTS to win. Isn’t that valuable?
And I second Matt’s comment on the difference btw lottery and non-lottery picks. Most likely going to be more than just a 3 spot differential, which could cost us Lamb, Beal, and Rivers. If that were the case, I say no thanks playoffs.
Anybody who agrees with tanking is an idiot. We see how well losing kept Lebron here.. Idiots..
Matt – You really think we’re going to jump down to 8? I’d contend that we’re better than almost every non-playoff team in the east (Milwaukee gives us a run for our money, but they’re more a collection of players rather than a team), and I’m pretty sure you’ll see Phoenix and maybe even Utah (or even Minn) end with a worse record. I think we’d likely end somewhere around 10. There’s still a lot of season to be played – these standings could radically shift, especially out west. I also really think you’re underrating the benefits of winning with… Read more »
The wins definitely don’t change my perception of what we should do at the trade deadline. Despite having roster talent top to bottom that seems to be among the worst in the league, the Cavs continue to win games I expect them to lose. Although I am a big proponent of more lottery balls, in typical Cleveland fan fashion I have reached a point in the season where I am not going to get my hopes up (down) and root for a desired outcome, but just take what they give me.
I agree the cavs players obviously shouldn’t tank this year, professional athletes should never tank. Gotta try your hardest to improve on your craft. That doesn’t mean I don’t wish they would stop winning games though. The difference between making the playoffs and missing in the east isn’t from 15th or so to 12th, its more likely 15th to 8th, because the first 5 teams out of the playoffs in the west all still have a better record than the cavs do right now. Is that worth building a terrible in game attitude habit and missing the playoffs for? Absolutely… Read more »
As someone who watched Cavs teams much more talented than this fail time and time again, the Cavs don’t want the playoffs this year. As tantalizing as Kyrie has become, and as promising as Gee and Thompson can look sometimes, championship teams have multiple stars and quite a few solid-to-outstanding role players. The Cavs have neither, and since Cleveland is never going to be a prime destination for free agents, there need to be more draft picks, especially of the lottery variety.
it will be an interesting week. considering the fallout of the decision and how quickly the cavs had gone from pathetic to relevant, i am quite pleased with this short season. depending on grant’s decisions this team could become the best team nobody can see on national tv. i would be giddy though if gilbert opens up the $$$ to buy into the high lottery to guarantee a wing player.
These opinions make no sense to me. If the Cavs are good enough to compete and make the playoffs, I think every Cavs fan should want it to happen! Experience in the playoffs can only be a good thing for our young guys. In the playoffs this year, they will have no pressure, and if they can pull out a win in one of the first couple of games, the opponent (Bulls or Heat) will have a ton of pressure. What happens to a team under pressure? Did anyone watch the finals last year? Also, what is the big difference… Read more »
I can’t remember where I read it, but I think it really rings true – if the Cavs make the playoffs this year, it will be MUCH more valuable than anyone they’d get with the (likely) 12th or 13th pick (versus the 16th) – This team really, really, really wants to win – you can’t fault a team for playing hard. It looks like Samardo is finally becoming the backup “big” we thought he could be, Jamison is the scoring machine we expected, Casspi can be a really, really good guy off the bench, Gee can actually create a shot… Read more »
I have to believe Sessions will be gone by the deadline, probably to the Lakers, Hawks, or (surprisingly) the Twolves. As far as Jamison, it sounds like he’s going to stay unless the Cavs get a great offer, which they probably won’t.
Making the playoffs wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but it definitely wouldn’t be good. The team is still sub-.500 and if they did manage to sneak in, it would be because of the other “contenders'” incompetance.
Stay the course. A full rebuild is needed. While the Cavs are only a game behind the Knicks, they are only 2.5 games or so ahead of the 5th worst team in the league. If they make the playoffs it will only be a result of the teams behind them playing worse. Getting smashed by the Bulls or Heat (dear God) and missing out on the premium talent in this draft to surround Kyrie with would be counter productive. In the past week the Cavs have sent players to Canton and not picked up Harris’ contract. It appears a move… Read more »
Last night’s game: whoa. Cavs played like they expected to win. They played like a playoff team. They played like they knew they could take the rockets any time they wanted. The bench was awesome, and casspi played his best game as a reserve. Also, Ramon was simply great. His line in limited minutes was very very good. If you told me last year that he’d be 41% from 3 and the best backup point in the league, I’d have said you were nuts. But here we are. It’s al most a shame we have to trade him. As the… Read more »