Nerlens Noel: Historical Comparisons to the Possible #1 Picks
2013-05-29
Finally, the time has arrived: Nerlens Noel, the majority selection for Number One. The type of long, super-athletic prospect that front offices drool over, the Kentucky freshman followed up on his place at the top of the high school class of 2012 with an impressive twenty-four games at Kentucky, parlaying that dossier into top-pick status. Of course nothing is easy though; on February 12th, he tore his left ACL, sidelining him until 2014. If not for that, this series never exists. Nerlens numerical profile is:
6’ 10” barefoot, 7’ 3.75” wingspan, 206 lbs (apparently he played at 220 pounds. Also no athleticism tests, but I will give Noel the benefit of the doubt of a 3.15 – 3.20 sprint time). Age 19.2 at draft time. 109 orating on 19 usage. 59 / 0 / 53. 78 / 0 / 22. dreb% = 21.7. ast% = 9.3. stl% = 3.9. blk% = 12.9. A:TO ratio = 0.8.
Pretty impressive stuff. Solid rebounding; astounding steal and block rates; and decent offensive play for an 18-year old center. Tough to find comparisons for those traits, and I’ve split this into a few categories.
Low minute back-ups:
Player A – 6’ 9.25” barefoot, 7’ 5.75” wingspan, 222 lbs, 25.5” no-step, 12.49 agility, 3.27 sprint, age 21.6 at draft time (comparison season is 19.6). 97 orating on 17 usage. 50 / 0 / 46. 80 / 0 / 20. dreb% = 23.2. stl% = 1.2. blk% = 18.8 (dropped to 11 his sophomore year, as his minutes increased). ast% = 1.5. A:TO Ratio = 0.2. 196th toughest schedule in NCAA, 534 minutes.
Player B – 6’ 11” barefoot, 7’ 6” wingspan, 241 pounds, 27” no-step, 12.75 agility, 3.25 sprint, age 20.4 at draft time (comparison season is age 19.4) 100 orating on 18 usage. 60 / 0 / 47. 80 / 5 / 15. dreb% = 13.1. ast% = 1.6 (3 assists on the season). A:TO Ratio = 0.1. blk% = 8.5. stl% = 1.0. 330 minutes, 131st toughest schedule in NCAA, 330 minutes.
Player A is long, skinny, and with sprint speed nearing outstanding levels for a big. He couldn’t get minutes at his mid-major school his freshman year. And deservedly so; even as an low-volume offensive role player, he stunk. Also, his weight matches Noel’s playing mass, despite being 2.5 years older.
Player B is also long, fast, and skinny. Like Player A, a hole on offense, racking up one assist per 110 minutes. He also apparently made the decision to not rebound at the defensive end. This contrasts Noel, who is a player lauded for his attitude and effort.
These players are Larry Sanders and Javale McGee. They aren’t comparisons like the players presented on Monday through Wednesday were; Noel is markedly superior to each at a similar age. Plus, McGee is a knucklehead, right? At least these players help build a portfolio for the floor and ceiling that Nerlens possesses.
Next comparison: a long, fast, low-usage shot blocker from an NCAA powerhouse.
Player C – 6’ 8.75” barefoot, 7’ 4” wingspan, 257 lbs, 31.5” no-step, 12.32 agility, 3.15 sprint. age 21.7 at draft time. (age 19.7 season). 114 orating on 13 usage. 59 / 0 / 62. 79 / 0 / 21. dreb% = 20.3. ast% = 4.4. stl% = 1.4. blk% = 12.4. A:TO Ratio = 0.6.
I know, I know…257 pounds. This guy was 30 months older than Noel though. In two years, could Noel at least push 240? North Carolina managed to pack thirty pounds onto John Henson in a similar timeframe…let’s say yes. Player D’s wingspan and reach equal Noel, and his sprint-speed meets the elite levels anticipated from the Kentucky freshman. He played thirty minutes per game, taking part in an Elite Eight run. He rebounded well, swatted shots, and scored 21% of his points from the free throw line (despite not shooting particularly well there). Alot of similarities to Noel, except Nerlens was six months younger, collected significantly more steals, and garnered a larger share of his team’s offense. Oh, and the fifty pounds. This similar freshman rim protector was Emeka Okafor; he averaged 14 points, 10+ rebounds and 2 blocks over his first five NBA seasons (before signing a big contract and never producing the same again).
Now, one final comparison…a player that was definitely better than Nerlens Noel.
Player D – 6’ 9.25” barefoot, 7’ 5.5” wingspan, 222 lbs, (no athleticism tests), age 19.3 at draft time. 134 orating on 19 usage. 62 / 15 / 71. 73 / 2 / 25. dreb% = 23.7. ast% = 7.4. stl% = 2.5. blk% = 13.7. A:TO Ratio = 1.2.
Anthony Davis was really fricking good. That has nothing to do with Nerlens though. So what we’ve learned is that Noel is well ahead of where Larry Sanders or Javale McGee were at his age. He will gain some weight; perhaps a fifteen-footer will develop; pick and roll alley-oops and offensive boards will be slammed with authority. For a ceiling, I could envision lines similar to Okafor’s early days: 15 points and 10 rebounds, but with maybe 3 blocks per night. All other considerations being equal, I have zero doubt that Nerlens Noel deservedly sits atop draft boards. Noel is great prospect, a potential game changer at one end of the court, who at a similar age is well ahead of many of the NBA’s best basket defenders.
Unfortunately not everything is equal. He fractured a growth plate in his left knee in high school, and now the torn ACL in the same knee. People say, “if the doctors sign-off, carry on…” But I still worry; a crew of doctors thought Greg Oden was sound at #1, and he had no history of knee surgery. Pretty much every team stayed away from Dejuan Blair. Now after playing 5400 minutes*, suiting up in 90% of the Spurs games over four years, those medical assessments look a bit off. This stuff isn’t a perfect science, even for the world’s best physicians. You mean they haven’t mastered predicting the impact of thousands of high-velocity, high-torgue movements on the human knee? Amateurs…
That’s silly, but this series never would have existed if not for Noel’s left knee. What scenario is the bigger gut punch? The one where three years from now, the 22-year old is undergoing a third surgery on his left knee? Or the one where the Cavs don’t take Noel, and we watch him swat Kyrie layups during breaks from his receiving John Wall alley-oops, as the Wizards cruise to another Eastern Conference Finals?
Wow; Cleveland sports fandom can leave a person jaded, but these dual questions are what keep this from being cut and dry.
High stakes indeed, and luckily Chris Grant is making the pick. Are there comparisons to players with two surgeries on the same knee before their nineteenth birthday? Let me know your thoughts in the comments, then we’ll wrap this up tomorrow.
*Blair has also logged 276 playoff minutes, impressively with a 23 PER.
Nate Smith – The 1984 Trailblazers had Clyde Drexler and Jim Paxson at SG. They were the #4 and #3 scorers averaging 17.4 and 17.9 points per game respectively. Clyde Drexler had just completed his rookie season. Jim Paxson had just completed his 4th season. Where exactly does Michael Jordan fit on that lineup? They didn’t really need a PF or SF as their #1 and #2 scorers played those positions. So that put guys like Charles Barkley and Sam Perkins out of the equation. If they hadn’t lost the coinflip with the Rockets, they would have (instead) drafted Hakeem… Read more »
Nate, selecting BPA isn’t exactly fool proof either. It’s not like the Trail Blazers said, “you know, Michael Jordan may go down as the best basketball player ever, but we really need a center, so let’s just go with Bowie”. I agree if they have Oladipo higher than Noel on their board, go for it. But if it is relatively close, there is some logic in taking need into consideration. Kyrie, Oden isn’t really a good example. First of all, he wasn’t really coming off any major knee injuries, so it’s not like his knee’s were going to be under… Read more »
That’s the one I always heard thrown out. Apparently, it’s not a good one. OK, then Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan. Case closed. Anyway, what does it matter if the Spurs were good or not before they brought Manu in?
The Spurs were a good team when they brought Manu Ginobli into the fold.
The Hawks had Royal Ivey and Tyronn Lue on their roster. Those weren’t good PGs. They had Al Harrington and Josh Smith on their roster that same year. Please tell me how Marvin Williams was a greater need than Chris Paul again?
Yep, Ben. If Oladipo’s the guy, you draft him. Drafting solely for need causes the Hawks to take Marvin Williams over Chris Paul. Anyway, there’s likely 108 minutes between Kyrie’s backup minutes, and the 2 and the 3 for Oladipo/Waiters/Small forward X. Manu Ginobili has been coming off the bench for the better part of his career. It hasn’t stopped him from being one of the best swing men of the last 10 years.
Ben F, I don’t have the reference right now, but I’ve know people who tore one acl and then easily tore the other one. I know that doctors told them there are genetic factors that make some people more prone to ACL tears, and having one on a little freak contact might, again only might, show that perhaps your genetically predisposed to having ACL problems. Lamarcus latimore is a recent, but certainly not the only example of a young guy who has torn both ACLs. And again, the ACL isn’t even Noel’s only injury history with that knee. And again,… Read more »
I think that (because they were completely unrelated injuries) the odds are pretty good for him. I have no real basis for this. The growth plate injury is of more concern to me than the ACL injury. As for the %…I don’t really know the number. I’ll go with 90%. I get that I could be eating crow on the NN thing…but if I was a GM, it’s a gamble that’s less likely to be an issue. The person we should really be asking this of is Dr. Andrews. If he says the knee checks out, then it checks out.… Read more »
KyrieSwIrving – what medical proof do you have that an ACL tear in a young guy is likely to lead to another ACL tear? Stress fractures – yes. Cartilage issues – yes. Meniscus issues – yes. But it’s rare that anyone ever tears their ACL more than once…because the rehab makes that particular body part stronger. As for TT – he’s improved his shooting number drastically from his rookier year. It’s even further imrprovement when you take into consideratio who gawdawful he played before Andy went down. His shot (out to 16′) saw some big time improvement. In college, TT… Read more »
Ben F – For me at least, this would be different if Noel hadn’t missed major parts of 2 of his last 4 seasons with injuries to the same knee. Maybe the next injury is a stress fracture, or cartilage, or the meniscus…maybe not, but with two surgeries in the last four years, what is your confidence level there won’t be another in the next four years? 95%…90%…75%…lower…just curious.
And certainly a third surgery on the same body part is a bad thing, right?
Jabari Parker is supposed to be better than anyone coming out this year as well. But good points on Shabbazz and Cody. And Underdog, If we draft Noel I will be really rooting for him to expand his offense, but it is a real concern, and an ACL tear, no matter what adrian peterson did, is still a bit of a warning sign as getting one, especially that young, shows you have the predisposition to getting another. And it wasn’t even his first significant injury to that knee. Also, Peterson isn’t close to 6’10, knee problems tend to exacerbate themselves… Read more »
@ josh
I came to that conclusion based on the fact that only one guy in next year’s draft looks like a cant miss superstar. Of course that could change but this draft is hardly loaded right now.
And at this time last year, guys like Cody zeller and Shabazz Muhammad were looking like cant miss prospects. Then the season was played.
Adrian Peterson was already a world class athlete playing a sport that doesn’t do nearly as much damage to your knees as basketball. There are a few players who’ve had ACL tears that ended up being ok, but how many have had it wreck their careers? I don’t really know because no one remembers the people that are out of the league in 4 years. Lets just hope our team doctors aren’t as terrible as the Trailblazers staff huh? http://zigsports.wordpress.com/2012/04/05/greg-oden-brandon-roy-what-what-happened/
I don’t like Zeller because he is one of the least tough players I’ve seen in a long time. But if he does toughen up and sticks with the team – he and Noel would complement each other quite well. It might be interesting to see the two of them on the floor at the same time on occasion.