Game 5 Preview and Live Thread

Tom: They’re a talented team capable of individual brilliance at times and they have a lot of good 3-point shooters.  They’re fundamentally flawed defensively in both personnel and effort but often times it matters not, as they are so prolific offensively and they clean up the glass very well, limiting second chance opportunities for opponents.  They can dictate the pace and have the ability to play different styles very easily.  They are uneven because they feature two guys, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love that seem to play more like X-factors than superstars in that they can make such a strong impact on the game as to be overwhelming.  The problem is that X-factors are guys you stick back on the pine when they don’t have it going.  The Cavs have done that with Love at times but bad Kyrie undermines them at both ends and this season he’s reared his head too often to ignore it.  The Cavs can be pushed around a bit in the normal collisions characteristic of half-court pick setting, but they do fight for boards and loose balls.  They need to win dirty against a gritty team like Toronto to recapture some of the grit squad spirit of last year.

Ben: The Cavs often forget how they have success. Guys will get hot after taking wide-open shots from good offense. After awhile, the confidence fuels the poor shots. It doesn’t work the other way. With Cleveland LeBron 1.0, I often lamented his early game shooting success knowing that that often led to a jump-shooting King. It wasn’t always a recipe for failure, but it certainly wasn’t the easiest path to success. Kyrie is a bit like that now. He makes impossible shots. It is a wonderful thing to have for late clock situations, but it can’t be the primary action. If that becomes the offense, the open threes dry up and the offense becomes below average. That baseline has fishing trip written all over it.

2.) How much of the wild swing between the Cleveland Games and the Toronto Games was the Cavaliers struggling versus the inspired play of the Raptors?  Did you notice any adjustments that moved the needle?

Tom: I’m going to say the Raptors improved more than the Cavs regressed.  I don’t totally buy that the Cavs just missed shots they normally make.  The Raptors made life uncomfortable by improved energy and attention to detail on defense.  Remember those “pick your poison” decisions that Mark Jackson commented on in game one and JVG shouted back: “you have to do both!”?  They started doing both: denying the dribble penetration and recovering quickly enough to bother the Cavs 3-point shots.  On offense, they were much more patient and used multiple screens when necessary to get DeRozan the looks he wanted.  Lowry played like an All-NBA point guard, which he has shown the ability to do over the past few years.  Lowry’s game to game impact has been as wild as I’ve seen from a league in which this kind of thing is becoming pretty common, with Kyrie, Lillard, Kemba, Isaiah, and even Westbrook, etc all being feast or famine at times.

Ben: Lowry and DeRozan played fantastic games at home. The damage that DeRozan did in Game 4 isn’t the type of damage that should change a gameplan. He made very difficult mid-range shots without a lot of player movement. Lowry’s success with the PnR is a bit different. The Cavs finally started trapping hard in the third quarter of Game 4. It was a successful strategy. Without DeRozan nailing the aforementioned shots, the Raptors would have been toast. Defensively, the Raptors made a huge adjustment to actually guard the paint and not only the three-point line as they did in Cleveland. The move to slide Biyombo on LeBron in specific post touches also helped the Raptors strong-side defense. The Cavs showed that they can exploit any defense when they are disciplined enough to run a real offense. Still, Casey should be jeered and applauded respectively.

3.) Without summoning Mozgov or Jordan McCrae if possible, name a change coach Lue can try to give the Cavs a better chance in this now best of 3 series.

Tom: More Channing Frye, more Delly, more Richard Jefferson, a shorter leash for J.R. Smith, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love.  Here’s the thing about three guys I just named.  Unlike LeBron who can kill two possessions and then make three straight and-1s while guys are bear hugging him, you can kinda gauge their effectiveness pretty quickly.  They get their energy up by hitting shots.  If they’ve got it going, allow that to be the focus.  If they’re missing badly and jogging back on defense and getting obliterated by Kyle Lowry, you don’t really have the luxury any more of waiting until you’re down 15 points to try to sort it out.  The Cavs team is fairly deep, and if they can’t flip the switch and start shooting a high percentage from downtown, they need to get down in the weeds and win a low scoring game.

Ben: Lue, LeBron, Griffin and whoever else must have the chutzpah to make the tough move. Griffin has bet on the Blatt firing, pulled the trigger on questionable trades that have worked out, and spent a lot of Gilbert’s money. He’s all in. The braintrust must be pragmatic in their assessment of the team. Contracts, reputation and conventional wisdom cannot govern basketball decisions if the Cavs are to truly compete for a championship. That means Mathew Dellavedova(for Kyrie) and Channing Frye(for TT and/or Love) should be in the starting lineup. Great teams make seemingly crazy lineup changes to maximize their advantage. The Cavs need to have the guts to do it. Biyombo has a lot of trouble with Frye. The Delly/LeBron PnR needs to be run until an opponent stops it. Going forward, if the Cavs make it to the Finals against the Warriors, it makes more sense to play Frye against Bogut and match Tristan up with their smaller bench lineup. When possible, the Cavs should avoid playing Love and Kyrie together for big minutes. Ginoboli was the best shooting guard of his era(yes, better than Kobe. I said it.) He played off the bench to maximize the lineups on the floor. Enough ego stroking. Make the tough choice and win.

Nate: Let me rephrase the question. “Without building a dam, tell me how to stop water.” Come on. You can’t stop water without a dam. Timofey Mozgov is the dam. He’s the only adjustment the Cavs have that is tall enough to stop the flood. Tristan Thompson can’t guard Biyambo. He can’t keep him off the boards. He can’t do anything to Biyambo on offense. He’s not tall enough and not strong enough. If the Bizmack that travels south to Cleveland is the same one that we saw in Toronto, Tristan is toast. Mozgov has the size to at least box out Biyambo and keep him off the boards, and is a decent enough spot up shooter that he can be a threat on offense outside the paint. Also, Mozz could block some freaking shots at the rim. I know it’s a longshot, but the only other shot the Cavs have is to hope that Biyambo is full of trepidation this time he heads south of the border. As for other adjustments, the biggest are: play harder, play smarter. Ty Lue waited till the fourth quarter to start running back door plays and moving wings to the basket without the ball. Why in God’s name did it take seven quarters to see these adjustments? The Cavs’ defensive effort has been crap. They aren’t even fouling guys; instead, they’re allowing layups. LeBron has to fight through screens on DeRozan. Also, they must keep trapping whenever Biyambo is in pick/and roll. Make him have to be a passer/ball handler. And Hack-a-yambo.

4.) How much could this series affect Kevin Love’s future with the Cavs and how much $ is Bismack Biyombo making himself?

Tom: A lot.  If the Cavs don’t trust him to play and he’s one of the worst pick and roll defenders in the NBA AND they have enough high usage players that they don’t really NEED a “superstar” at that spot, they will consider dealing him for the right package.  I know it will be a small sample but I think a small sample is why they invested so heavily in Tristan Thompson.  Last year we saw what a defensive-minded team surrounding LeBron could do.  This year we are seeing what an offensively-focused team can do.  It’s a nice controlled experiment.

Ben: There is still enough time for Kevin to get his stroke back and be a difference maker. I have always preferred to trade Irving over Love. But if he continues playing passively on both ends, he will likely be moved in the off-season. It was already crazy last summer that TT and Biyombo signed such different contracts. Now that Biyombo has been unleashed on the national stage, a previously reluctant GM will be empowered to make him the kind of offer he wanted to make Biyombo last summer. He will get at least 13 mil a year.

5.) Going into the playoffs, what would have been the most shocking prediction: Thunder knock off San Antonio AND Golden State, Raptors minus Jonas knock off the Cavs, or Channing Frye would be leading all playoff performers with a 81% true shooting percentage?

Tom: The Thunder.  Kevin Pelton covered this today.  If they defeat the Warriors (which, I’m not ready to crown them yet) it will be a record for being victorious over teams with crazy point differentials.  Since point differential over 82 games is probably the best metric we have for “how good” a team is, that’s basically saying the Thunder have overcome the toughest challenge in NBA history in beating the historically dominant Spurs and regular season GOAT Spurs.  I never saw them even beating the Spurs much less both.  They’re a buzzsaw right now.

Ben: Thunder and it’s not even close. It was only a few weeks ago that people were making fun of Dion Waiters, claiming Roberson can’t play in a Warriors series, questioning whether Donovan was an upgrade on Scott Brooks, and most importantly, assuming Durant was out the door. People will still find a reason to rip on Waiters, but he has played incredibly well throughout the playoffs. Donovan has understood how important Steven Adams is and stuck to big lineups. Westbrook still wastes six possessions a game with dumb three point attempts, but his decision making has been fantastic otherwise. The Warriors and Spurs were historically great regular season teams. If the Thunder roll both of them, that would shock me more than anything all year. The Raptors were better with Biyombo starting during the regular season too. Frye is a great shooter who is on an extended hot streak. Not shocking. The Thunder running people out of gyms? Amazing.
I mostly tackled this in my answer for Number 3. It’s simple. Play your best lineups. If those lineups have your stars, great. But if they don’t, fearlessly sit those stars.

Nate: Uh, definitely Channing Frye. The Thunder are surprising, but they have two of the top six players in the NBA. Any time you have that, you can win. And the Raps won’t beat the Cavs… I hope.

Zach Lowe indicated today in a podcast that Warriors brass told him last year they were upset Kyrie got hurt because they thought the Cavs were better with defensive players around LeBron.  So Lowe offered this to Windhorst: When Love and Irving are on the floor in the playoffs and the other team runs a pick and roll in which Irving and Love are involved in defending that pick and roll: the opponents are scoring 1.207 points per possession, which would have led the league this season.  Concurrently, according to SportVu, Love and Irving were the worst pick and roll defenders in the regular season.  Lowe’s question to Windy in light of this: what adjustments can the Cavs make to mitigate it.  Windy’s solution: “Shoot 50% from 3 / Don’t play Kevin Love in 4th quarters”.  What would you have told Lowe on the phone?

Tom: The Cavs have done a decent job defending teams that have one guy that can hurt them.  Against Boston this was Thomas, against Atlanta it was Korver.  Because both Lowry and DeRozan are killing the Cavs in the pick and roll, the Cavs have to consider getting LeBron, Delly, Shumpert, and Thompson more involved on those plays.  That might mean preferring to play those guys in this matchup, or just doing a more concerted job of not switching to allow the Raptors to get the mismatches they want.  Tell Kyrie to grab onto DeMarre Carroll’s shadow and just get out of the other four guys’ way.  And really, part of this problem goes away if they just get more physical to a man and do as much pushing and shoving as the Raptors are doing when setting all these screens.  Or, yeah, like Windhorst said, just hit 3s and go over every screen/close out.  3s > 2s.  Also, the Cavs had a lineup this year that was devastating.  We haven’t even seen it.

Nate: What would I have told Lowe? To play the Cavs’ best regular season lineup: starters minus Kyrie, plus Delly. We haven’t seen it in any significant stretches, and it takes some of the pressure off Love. Unfortunately, Lue is barely playing it this playoffs. Aside from that? I’m not sure there’s much that can be done besides outscore the other team –  especially when LeBron is playing lazy defense too. I’m frustrated. OKC is the best team in the NBA, and if the Cavs’ are letting Derozan and Lowry go for 67, they’re going to get destroyed by Westbrook and Durant. I’m going to bed.

Eli: If both are playing great offensively, you play them.  If one of them is really stinking it but the other is doing well offensively, take the stinker out.  If both are struggling from the field and continue to give up pick and roll sequence time and time again, you have no choice but to roll out Delly/Shump and Frye/Tristan.  It’s a tough choice and may “look” bad because you don’t have your two “stars” out there but if they aren’t at the very least delivering on their strong end of the court, you don’t have a choice.