Finals Live Thread: Cavs @ Warriors, Game 2 (#doingwhatyoudo)

The Warriors had 56 points in the paint in game one. They had 21 points off of turnovers. They had 18 second chance points.i

Each of those numbers needs to come down in game two. No matter what the Cavs do, they must work on controlling the ball after misses, defending the paint, and protecting the ball. There’s lots of reasons they have to do those things. For one, they help win basketball games. But really, it’s because those are the things the Cavs can be better than the Warriors at.

The Warriors are known for whipping the ball around, hitting 3s, and running. The Cavs are known for hitting 3s too, but only after a hard drive and kick, or on ball screen. In a lot of ways, when these teams are both at their best, they are doing their damage from deep. Often times, it’s impossible to stop them from raining 3s, no matter the defensive scheme is. There’s a reason the Cavs are number one in 3-point percentage this post season and the Warriors are number four.

In game one the Cavs, allowed the Warriors to hit just 12 3s. That was solid, but it came at the expensive of the above mentioned areas. Areas the Cavs can win at.

The Wine and Gold need to not worry about stopping the inevitable 3s that will come by sacrificing rebounding to get out to shooters, or running to shooters and giving up dunks on fast breaks. The Warriors will hit their long ball one game. The Cavs will too.

Cleveland can protect the rim against the Warriors. The Warriors aren’t looking to kill you with drives. The want to get back cuts, get out in transition , and hit 3s. Cleveland doesn’t have to worry about some over the top jumping dunk dude. There’s no guy one the Warriors whose number skill is getting into the paint necessarily. Why let them dominate down low? The Cavs can own the paint. Kyrie Irving can get to the rack. Tristan Thompson can roll hard. LeBron James can post up, use his shoulder on drives, or roll to the rim.

Cleveland is also definitively the better rebounding team. Kevin Love had 21 by himself in game one. Tristan Thompson is usually able to snag five or six offensive boards a night, and LeBron James can grab how ever many boards he decides too. The Cavs out rebounded the Warriors by nine in game one and that’s including the 15 offensive boards they gifted Golden State. Cleveland has out boarded teams by four per night in the playoffs. The Warriors just 1.8 per night in the playoffs.

The Cavs are also much better at protecting the ball. Statistically both teams play semi-loose given their turnovers per game this season, but the Warriors will play very lose and fast the more comfortable they get in a game. They also pass the ball much more than Cleveland.

Cleveland throws one or two passes before they shoot the ball. There’s not as much that can go wrong. They can focus more on each action offensively because they aren’t doing as much as Golden State. And, they must do that. Their transition defense is awful, so why not stop transition ball from happening as often by not turning it over?

If you still don’t believe that the turovers, points in the paint, and rebounds are really what matters for Cleveland, let’s look at the simple math. The Warriors took 106 shots on Thursday. The Cavs took just 86. If both teams take the same number of 3s, and hit the same percentage from the floor, who is going to win the game? The Cavs need the math to be in their favor, no matter how their offense is doing.

I’m picking the Cavs to clean up their act tonight. They’ve got this game, 113-101.