From Distance: Playoffs Edition

four point play….

1. The 2018/2019 NBA basketball season felt a bit longer than usual. In recent years, the Cavs have made a habit of drastically overhauling their roster mid-season in order to maximize their chance to win a championship. In a vacuum, this season’s roster makeover wasn’t all that daunting. Still, the shift of expectation from legit playoff aspirations, to full-fledged tanking mode, made this season expand in all directions.

There was a time when Ty Lue was going to lead an offense based around the Kevin Love/Kyle Korver two man dance, pace, and a ascendant Cedi Osman into the Playoffs. I didn’t not believe it.

It was not ridiculous to predict a playoff run for the Cavs’ Preseason roster. Looking now at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, it is rather easy to see how a Cavs team led by an All-Star Kevin Love could have won roughly 43 games.

Obviously, the goal of the season changed drastically after the 0-6 start and Love’s injury. I think we were all fine with that. It was clear that Cleveland was not going to go far without its talented power forward/center. We may have been fine with it, but boy was it not fun to watch.

All the way through to the All-Star break, Cavs viewing was exceedingly brutal. It was an era of Alec Burks and mid-range sadness in the form of rookie Collin Sexton. It was all lollipops and hand grenades, aka Jordan Clarkson.

Fortunately, The Cavs were relatively watchable since the All-Star break, especially due to the improved play of Sexton. It correlated with Love’s return and the influx of more NBA caliber players like Brandon Knight and (for a stint) Mathew Dellavedova.

During that stretch, Larry Drew was able to hold together a new collection of players and balance the desire for playing time with the front office’s desire to lose games. I don’t think many people expected Drew to keep his job for next season, but as Cory said in his article about Drew’s release, there was a growing positive sentiment around the veteran coach.

Though I do appreciate LD’s steady hand and calm demeanor, the Cavs’ team play was just too consistently awful to warrant giving Drew another season without an open coaching search. Yes, the Cavs were trying to lose games, especially in the middle third of the season, but Drew had a shot early in the year to make his case. 0-6 wasn’t a death sentence necessarily.

A head coach with a decent defensive game plan and smarter lineup rotations could have made a playoff push. Love would have played more had the Cavs been in the hunt.

Maybe Drew was under direct orders to play Clarkson, the ultimate tanking weapon. I honestly don’t know. What I do know is that I wouldn’t trust this coaching staff to beat any of the top coaches in the NBA. Drew is a nice, level-headed guy. That isn’t enough.

2. The Race for MVP between James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo is seemingly closer among NBA people than I would think. An underrated aspect of Giannis’s play is how efficiently he has performed in only 32.8 minutes per game.

The Greek Freak’s per 36 stats are overwhelming. One could argue that his lower minute count actually strengthens Harden’s candidacy as Harding has put in more work on the floor. I, however, look at the point differential that the Bucks have thrown on the league and recognize that much of the reason The Freak has fewer minutes is because he has been so good in the early parts of games. He rested in fourth quarter of blowouts.

Check out these stats:

The Freak averaged 13.7 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 30.4 points per 36.

Those are just his traditional counting numbers. Toss in the fact that Giannis is a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate and it really should be his MVP to lose. James Harden has been an absolute beast throughout the entire season and really for the last four. Harden absolutely should have won the MVP the year that Russell Westbrook triple doubled his way into dumb writers hearts.

This season, it would be the same mistake only working to Harden’s favor. The wow factor goes to The Beard. Harden’s 36 ppg leads the league in scoring by huge amount. It is an absurd number not seen since early Jordan. And his team has played great ball since early February.

But his two-way play is no where near as impacting as The Freak. To be fair, Harden is an underrated defender at this point. As many people have noted, his post defense and incredibly active hands are not to be overlooked.

Look, no one is stupid if they are convinced that Harden is the true MVP of the league (like they were with Westbrook), but for me, Antetokounmpo is now the greatest regular season player on the planet, and is likely to continue to hold that title for the foreseeable future.

We shall see whether he is able to turn his regular season success into a deep playoff run. If he can, Giannis could cement his status as best, or perhaps second best player in the NBA behind Kevin Durant (LeBron could very well still be number one in the playoffs, but he can’t be considered at this moment.)

If I were to have an official vote, I would strongly check the box for The Freak.

3. While we are here, I probably don’t even need to say that Luka is clearly my Rookie of the Year despite Trae Young’s strong close to the season.

Like most people, I have Rudy Gobert as Defensive Player of the Year knowing that regular season basketball is different than playoff basketball. I hope that Gobert is able to continue his incredible play in the playoffs, but that will be a short task done by a tall player. (See what I did there. Small ball? Get it?!)

The playoff seedings are somewhat disappointing to me. On one hand, the Nuggets should be able to take care of a less talented San Antonio Spurs squad. No one on the Spurs should really be able to handle Nikola Jokic’s offensive game. LaMarcus Aldridge is a talented defender, but few people can consistently stop the Joker from destroying a set defense with his preternatural passing talent.

Well, except for maybe a team led by Gregg Popovich. I was excited for a long Nuggets playoff run, but facing the Spurs in Round One could short circuit that plan rather quickly. Even if the Spurs aren’t able to win the series, there is little doubt that the Nuggets will be pushed to six or seven games. It is great that they could avoid the Warriors until the Conference Finals, but one has to get there at all for that to be of any note.

I believe in The Joker, so it would be foolhardy to pick against him in Round 1, but we all know how good Popovich and his Spurs can be.

4. In the Eastern Conference, many people are getting excited about a potential Nets upset against the Philadelphia 76ers. I would ask those people a simple question: Who on the Nets is able to guard Joel Embiid. I love Jarrett Allen, but I could back that guy down. He has a developed upper body, but he is still lacking in lower body strength.

The Nets don’t have enough old-fashioned girth to keep the Sixers from dominating the paint. Brooklyn might be able to get hot from deep in a game or two, but there is no way that they can match up on the boards against a giant Sixers team in playoff mode.

The real match-up to watch in Round One is Utah and Houston. The Jazz have a team that could either give the Rockets a miserable time with their length, defensive identity, and team passing, or the Rockets could take advantage of Utah’s comparatively weak defensive back-court and use that to torch Utah from all angles.

I think this is the year that Gobert stays on the floor in the playoffs, that Joe Ingles reminds everyone again just how good he is on both ends of the floor, and that Kyle Korver gets his moment on the big stage.

James Harden has consistently been easier to handle in the playoffs than he is in the regular season. His primary weapon, a diving Clint Capela, can be mitigated by Gobert’s and super backup, Derrick Favors’s defensive presence. Unless Harden plays out of his mind, which is very possible, I think the Jazz will win the series.

First Found Predictions:

Philly over Brooklyn in 5

Toronto over Orlando in 5

Golden State over LA, in 4

Denver over SA, in 7

Boston over Indiana, in 6

OKC over Portland in 6

Milwaukee over Detroit in 5

Utah over Houston in 7