Finals Live Thread: Game 4, Warriors @ Cavs

I want to get very specific. Everyone watching the Cavs sort of shutdown the Warriors can recognize what’s going on: the Cavs are protecting the ball, limiting 3-point makes, slowing the game’s pace, making role players perform, and marching the NBA back to a time where games had less than 200 combined points and more than 200 combined hand-checks. Let’s check out some numbers from these playoffs to get a better appreciation for the Cavs 2-1 series lead.

LeBron James

The King has truly become the fearless leader of this Cavs team. There’s no arguing that. He yells at guys and a minute later points to the same guy saying, “you the man.” Throughout the season where he has placed his command throne on the court has changed. Look at his regular season shot chart:

LeBron’s regular season shot chart

Notice the high-post area where LeBron is Einstein. He just didn’t want to show his brilliance off during the regular season, and he settled for that comfortable undefended mid-range jumper. He took nearly 27% of his shots there, and sank two percent less than league average.

Now let’s look at his shots during the Eastern Conference playoffs. LeBron changed his mindset about getting to his happy place.

LeBron’s Eastern Conference Playoff shot chart

He started taking the ball in the high-post, as teams put smaller defenders such as Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder on him. He used his patented adamantium shoulder to collapse chests with his first step, and the results were beautiful. Even though LeBron shot roughly average from the post, he hooked up shooters and cutters when the Bulls, Hawks, and Celtics sent an extra help defender to stop him from scoring.

Now let’s look at the King’s shot chart during this Warriors series:

LeBron’s Finals shot chart

In the first three games of the Warriors series, the King has been taking his talents to the post even more frequently. He’s staring Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, and Andre Iguodala in the eyes and showing he isn’t scared to boogie despite a barrage of grabby hands.

The change in where LeBron is shooting is actually not what people should be focused on though. LeBron has essentially taken up an extra 1/3rd of the ball handling responsibilities in the playoffs and some how protected the ball even better. Looking over SportsVU possession data from the regular season, you can see that LeBron held the ball 6.1 minutes per game. During the playoffs, that number has jumped to 9.0 minutes per game (he has also started receiving the ball 1.4 more times in the post than he did during the regular season).

What’s truly amazing though has to do with the King’s turnovers. During the regular season, he turned the ball over 3.9 times a match, or about one time every 1.56 minutes. During the playoffs, the King has been turning the ball over 4.2 times a game, or once every 2.14 minutes. That’s some serious ball security right there. How is he doing it?

I would say that he is hyper-focused. I would also say that he knows how to better survey the floor from the post than on pick and rolls. He has also stopped trying to thread impossible passes on pick and roll plays.

What’s even crazier about LeBron’s ball security is that the one turnover every 2.14 minutes of possession is skewed. LeBron has had just ten turnovers in the three games against the Warriors, and he has held on to the ball even more, since Kyrie Irving went down. Unfortunately, the SportsVU data I have access to doesn’t let me look at specific dates, so just be happy knowing LeBron is constantly improving during this Finals run.

The Warriors

When you think Warriors, what comes to your mind? I think about 3-point shooting and the Splash Bros, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Those bros ranked number one and two, respectively, for made 3s in the regular season. They also rank one and two so far this postseason. However, they aren’t doing so well during the first three games of the finals. The Cavs have held them both under 33% from 3-point land.

This is a problem for the Warriors because when they have struggled in the postseason or fell behind, they have jacked up threes to get caught up/gain momentum. During the regular season, the Warriors took 30.9% of their shots from 3-point land, and they made 40% of them. They hit 10.7 per game.

During their Western Conference playoffs run, the Warriors started taking 35.7% of their shots from beyond the arc. They made 11.7 per game, but their shooting percentage dropped to 38. This uptick in 3-point shooting helped them overcome dialed in defenses and helped during a 20 point fourth quarter comeback win against the Pelicans.

In the finals, 36.8% of the Warriors shots are three-pointers, but they’re making just  ten a game at a 31.3% rate. The Warriors shooting has gotten progressively worse throughout the playoffs, and this is a product of better defensives and their own mindset.

Throughout the regular season the Warriors would shoot their way out of trouble. This is great when it works, but when the ball isn’t dropping it helps to have guys that can simply dunk over someone to score or back their way down/dribble to a layup. Sure, the Warriors have guys who can do those things, but that is none of their players’ calling card.  The Cavs number one skill….Okay, LeBron’s number one skill is being able to back guys down to get an easy bucket, or back guys down to create an easy layup for a teammate.

Matthew Dellavedova Is Objectively Doing Stuff

What Matthew Dellavedova is doing this series is absolutely amazing, and there are actual stats which are objectively impressive enough to show how amazing it is. NBA.com has a stat that shows how well a player defends opponents. It takes the opponents’ average shooting percentage and compares it to what they shoot when covered by a specific man. In the Playoffs, Delly has caused opponents to shoot 1.4% worse than their average from 3-point land. In the Finals, if Delly defends the 3-ball, the shooter is shooting 25.9% worse than their average. That’s not a typo. Stephan Curry has shot just 32% in the past three games, which is pretty far away from his regular season average of 44%. If the Cavs laid the Delly onto Draymond Green, who is currently shooting 12.5% from 3-land this series, he would theoretically be shooting a negative percentage on 3-balls, which is impossible. Thankfully for stat recorders, that matchup won’t happen.

Game Four Thoughts

A lot of people are pointing to Stephen Curry’s 17 point barrage in the fourth quarter of game three as a sign that he’s going to start playing at his MVP level again. That doesn’t scare me. The Cavs have now given up three leads in the fourth quarter. J.R. Smith has yet to have a lava heat level shooting game (He has scored just 32 points total is three games). LeBron James is shooting only 40%. Iman Shumpert has yet to have a break out game. And, Tristan Thompson is shooting just 33% on shots.

The Cavs are causing Curry to falter. The Warriors aren’t really causing J.R. to struggle or Shumpert to struggle. The Warriors are game planning for LeBron James, and the King is still averaging 41 points, 8.3 assists, and 12 rebounds on 40% shooting. 40% shooting is great for some guys, not for LBJ. Eventually, more of his shots will drop. The same goes for TT. TT isn’t a jump shooter. He will shoot more than 33% considering most of his shots are simply put backs.

This game is a must win for the Warriors. They need both Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry to perform along with one other role player if they want a decisive victory. The Cavs just need one random hot game from a role player to win big tonight. The Cavs have the upper hand, and will come out looking to keep it.

What are your predictions tonight?

I’m picking the Cavs to win this game 110-92. The Cavs aren’t likely to have another fourth quarter melt down, and I would bet on one of the Wine & Gold role players getting hot before Draymond Green or Harrison Barnes does. Those two Golden States guys are too busy covering LeBron.