Draft Profile: Mike Scott
2012-06-05After last week’s lottery and this week’s draft combine; next week I plan on updating my opinions on MKG, Harrison Barnes and other players where my prior profiles have gotten stale. I discussed these prospects in mid-December (noted that MKG may end up the second best player from the draft class) and early January (compared Barnes to 2010 – 2011 Danny Granger). By the end of this week, a lot of additional information is available since January 5th, so time to give another look.
Today though, a player that only rates as significant to me steps up. ESPN ranks Mike Scott at 49th and draftexpress places him 56th.
Scott finished his senior year at Virginia and due to a season of medical red-shirting turns 24 shortly after draft day. Aided by four years of additional experience compared to some players, he shared first-team ACC honors with four potential lottery picks. At 6’ – 8”, his height is non-ideal for an NBA power forward, but his 237 pound frame and physical style-of-play provides the necessary tools to bang with the big boys. This season, he averaged 18 points and 8 rebounds; deceptive numbers due to Scott playing only 31 minutes and Virginia playing at the NCAA’s 11th slowest pace (of 344 teams). Per forty minutes, pace adjusted, his scoring ranks second and his rebounding twelfth for all likely drafted NCAA players in 2012. With true shooting of 62 and offensive rating and usage of 115 and 30, his efficiency excelled last season. Virginia relied on Scott to generate offense from the post and facing up, where his range out to eighteen feet proves beneficial. His height somewhat limits him, but he finishes effectively around the basket, although back-to-the-basket scores will be much tougher to come by in the NBA. While not a shot blocker, his strength allows him to man-up on the block, and he routinely plays hard at this end of the court. His defensive rebounding percentage ranked 3rd in the ACC and 41st in NCAA, and Virginia’s defense finished with the sixth-best schedule adjusted rating in Division One.
Game Recap: In Virginia’s ACC tourney defeat against NC State, Scott scored 23 points alongside 10 rebounds. The scoring came inefficiently on 23 field goal attempts as he struggled with his jumper; often forcing contested looks, whether facing up, off-screens, or the catch-and-shoot variety. Much of his damage occurred in the post, where he scored 10 points in 10 plays. He used a variety of moves; scoring on drop-steps, hop-steps, and turnarounds, while missing lefty and righty hooks. These myriad moves are surely a product of five years in college. Rolling off a pick appeared as an area he was less expert, resulting in a few poorly spaced plays. Solid on defense, he primarily guarded Richard Howell, currently draftexpress’s #32 pick in 2013, and held him to 10 points and 4 rebounds. Howell and CJ Leslie (#9 in 2013) both scored in the paint against Scott, but generally he showed nice skills and effort; hedging well on pick-and-rolls, fighting through screens, and displaying box-out fundamentals & a low perimeter stance.
Despite the less than perfect game, Scott’s NBA team will never request this much shooting. He should be very capable of performing the tasks he will be asked to: convert the shots his guards create for him from 17 feet and in, hold his own on defense, and rebound.
Summary: Perhaps Cleveland swings a trade with Orlando: #24 and #34 for #19 and #49. Then the Cavs draft Bradley Beal at #4, Moe Harkless at #19, Festus Ezeli at #33 and Mike Scott with #49. To me, that would be awesome. A great blend of size, athleticism, skill, and experience.
For a rookie, Scott brings a certain “veteran” presence. If by chance Cleveland adds four rookies, making two of them Seniors seems like a priority to me. Scott’s efficiency, toughness and jump shooting strike me as skills that will make him a valuable second-string player.
In the 2012 draft, ideally the Cavs snag a future all-star, a starter, and a guy that makes you think, “he looks like an NBA player.” Mike Scott can be that last guy. Lavoy Allen was selected 50th last year by Philadelphia, then posted what I rated as the 10th best rookie season from his draft class, before knocking-out a 17 PER in twelve playoff games. I envision Mike Scott making similar impacts with the team that selects him.
I’m sorry, what the hell does “ceiling” mean then?? Again, we’re talking about the possible #2 pick here!! Davis’ ceiling is Garnett, as many are saying. Why shouldn’t the supposed #2’s ceiling be a HOF too? Really poor argument, Kevin.
Kj,
Well, personally I think that MKG’s “best case scenario” is above Iguodala.
Anyways, which HOF do you think that John Henson or any other player in this draft’s “ceiling” is? What do you think that player’s “floor” is?
KJ, you point does not stand, you just prove my point further. To say Henson has put on 40 lbs since frosh year means he was much much scrawnier than Davis at Davis’s age. Most scrawny bigs put on weight between 18 and 21, it just illustrates why the weight of Davis and Henson is viewed so differently. Henson has already somewhat matured and had time to put on weight, and Davis still weighs the same at him at a much less developed state. Davis literally has only been as tall as he is for less than 20 months, it… Read more »
Whoa! I call foul! Haha! No “re-drafting” here. Apples to apples! MKG’s best case has to be Pippen and his worse case Iggy to be worth the #2 or 3 pick! Seriously, re-drafting makes this a bogus comparison and argument.
Kj,
Now you’re just being ridiculous…if people thought MKG’s floor was iguodala and his ceiling was Pippen, we would be debating him vs Anthony Davis for #1.
Also, I don’t know why “re-drafting” is bogus. A bunch of teams making mistakes in 2001 and 2004, leaving Iggy and Wallace at #9 and #27, should not have anything to do with MKG’s value in June 2012. Basically, you’re saying it does.
Actually, Henson has put on like 40lbs since his frosh year, so he can obviously put on more as a pro. I still think my overall point stands.
Ok, fine. But Iggy went like 9th and Wallace went like 27th in their respective drafts. We’re talking top 4 for MKG. Big dif…
Kj,
Except if you re-did the 2004 draft today, Iggy would be in the mix with Luol Deng, Al Jefferson and Josh Smith for picks 2 – 5 (behind Dwight Howard).
Wallace has scored the 8th most points from his draft class and grabbed the 8th most rebounds. The only two players better than him in both categories are Pau Gasol and Zach Randolph. And that’s “worst case” for MKG according to one reputable source. Compared to the “worst case” for most other players in the 2012 draft, that’s really good.
The team picking 4th in 2004, would have much rather selected Iguodala than Sean Livingston. I know that’s not fair, but the team’s that picked 3rd (Ben Gordon) and 5th (Devin Harris), would also surely rather have the lockdown wing and slashing scorer.
The team that drafted Eddy Curry 4th in 2001 would also surely have rather spent the pick on Gerald Wallace.
I also just realized I want no part of barnes, of course this comes on the heals of a report that the Cavs are targeting barnes. Please be smoke and mirrors! the guy does one thing at a high level, the step back mid range jumpshot. That is a play you only want as a last resort, not something you draft a guy to come in and do as much as possible. There is a reason he only shot 44% from the field, and its his love of the mid range jumper and lack of ability to do much else.
Henson is also 2.5 years older than Davis and closer to having a matured body. Tons of players get to college underweight, there isn’t time or opportunity during a season to bulk up (add weight like that can mess with ur shot and make you sore all the time, not ideal mid-season scenarios) and add weight between years as they exit their teens. Henson I’m sure is capable of putting on a few pounds, but almost every freshman big man needs to add muscle, so its not held against him as much. Henson, being around for a while, has had… Read more »
@Kj,
I also like Henson (just not for the cavs), but I think they are more concerned about him than AD because he is 2 years older and they expect Davis to be bulkier when he is Henson’s age.
@ Moose You point the weird biases that are in all these mock drafts. Scott is “too small” to be a NBA PF while people go on and on about Robinson as the 2nd bestplayerinthe draft. I mentioned something similar in how EVERY analysis of Henson say how skinny he is when he is exactly the same weight as Davis! Just last night I went and looked at like 8 mock drafts and their capsule “reviews” and every one mention Henson as skinny and not one said that about Davis. Perception and bias is alive and well in the NBA… Read more »
Realistically, how big is the difference between Scott and Thomas Robinson? I believe they both measured in at 6’8″. Clearly, there’s more to playing the 4 than simply height, but (beyond the difference in age) … I don’t know, I just can’t see using the #4 on Robinson.
I don’t know how many other people are with me on this, but in almost all circumstances I think the Cavs should hold onto those two picks at the top of the second round. The biggest dilemma in any draft scenario is what do you take and when, and will what you want still be on the table for your next turn in line. At the time of a draft selection, a GM is usually torn between several players as he considers the zillion variables that come into play with every other teams’ selections. They also recognize how significant the… Read more »
Carson,
Admittedly, the trade I describe relies on everything going perfectly. Harkless may not be there at 19, Ezeli at 33, or Scott at 49. Your comment has merits. Obviously the Cavs are taking in an extremely wide range of considerations as they move nearer to draft day.
I’m with you on Scott, Kevin. I believe he also had a top 5 PER this year? His advance numbers definitely point to him as a possible “steal” in the early 2nd round…
What about adding Granger. Besides the fact he’s injury prone and dumb he would be a great 3rd option is we can add a second like beal or t rob. sorry MKG isn’t even a third option
Insider,
I don’t know why the Cavs would add Granger, but is he that injury prone? Over the last four years, he’s played 87% of possible nights. That’s not horrible. Watching Granger, he seems pretty tough. Do you remember when he had his two front teeth knocked out against Boston?
I’ll discuss MKG next week and make the case that he can develop into a third option.
To the MKG isn’t a third option, he’s not very good, etc crowd:
Draftexpress came out with their “best case” and “worst case” evaluations for every player today. MKG’s “worst case” is Gerald Wallace. So, in their opinion, a one-time all-star and one-time all-defense is MKG’s floor.
I’d take it.
Andre Iguodala is his best case according to draft express.