Draft Profile: Jae Crowder (and Tiers 1 & 2 on my big board)
2012-06-22One week until the draft. Today, I offer a quick draft profile on Jae Crowder, serving as my final player report. Regretfully, I missed a number of players including: Jared Cunningham, Henry Sims, and Damian Lillard amongst other. Also, starting today I’ll lay out a draft board; not Cavs specific, but mainly a discussion starter of one person’s ranking of the 2012 draft class. Let’s start with the first two tiers; the best of these players available at #4 is my preference for Cleveland, with the exception of Beal over Robinson.
Tier 1 (50 /50 of making First-team All-NBA):
- Anthony Davis – No need to belabor this.
Tier 2 (50 / 50 of making two or more all-star teams):
- Anthony Davis (Tier 1)
- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – In mid-December, I thought he could be the second best player from this draft class, and that has not changed. As the youngest player of the group and with an epic work ethic, a respectable shots develops for him
- Thomas Robinson – Measuring 6’ – 9” in shoes with a 7’ – 3” wingspan quieted many critics. He’s strong, fast, & explosive and finished as the NCAA’s best rebounder. He possesses the ability to eventually match his 18 & 12 at Kansas in the NBA.
- Bradley Beal – The young Gator turns 19 next week, posted solid college numbers, and improved as the season progressed. Coaches love his work ethic and scouts rave about his shooting form, to the extent of drawing Ray Allen comparisons out of high school. Some Cavs fans worry about a dreaded “undersized” back court that served as a major flaw of the Lebron-era Cavs. Remember though, that Delonte West measured two inches shorter than Beal’s barefoot 6’ 3.25”, while Mo Williams stopped an inch short of Kyrie. Here’s a quick rundown of pre-draft heights of some current NBA twos: Wes Matthews – 6’ 4”, James Harden – 6’ 4”, Tyreke Evans – 6’ 4”, Dwyane Wade – 6’ 3.75”, Tony Allen – 6’ 3.5”, Marcus Thornton – 6’ 2.75”, Monta Ellis – 6’ 2.25”, Avery Bradley – 6’ 2”. Perhaps you notice that offensive and defensive standouts make the list, and none is more than three-quarter inch taller than Mr. Beal.
- Andre Drummond – A recent hobby involves scouring the draftexpress measurements database. For Drummond, comparables seriously lack. Nearly seven-feet in shoes…a 7’ – 6” wingspan…280 pounds with only 7.5% body fat…10.8 in the agility drill…32” no-step vert. Oh yeah, and 18 years old. That is a physical & athletic profile unlike many others. At 5 or 6, Drummond could absolutely be the steal of the draft. Or he may never commit to dominating, eventually sign a max contract, and coast for three or four years. His passive post game, poor defensive rebounding, and almost-impossible depths of free-throw shooting all present red flags about his passion & motor, but man, he is really big and athletic.
That’s a solid top five. Today, a deeper look will be given to a potential second round sleeper. Next week, I’ll go deeper down my draft board and provide some Cavs specific draft-day thoughts.
Jae Crowder recently completed his senior year at Marquette as the Big East Player of the Year, stuffing the stat-sheet with 18 points on 60% true shooting, 8 rebounds, 1 block and 2.5 steals a game, with a stellar 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio. Well suited to his likely NBA role-player status, his scoring primarily comes off the ball; through offensive rebounds, cuts and spot-ups. Outstanding defensive activity resulted in the NCAA’s tenth most steals per game, for the 14th best adjusted-defense (of 345 according to kenpom.com).
Game Recaps: In Marquette’s second round NCAA tourney victory over Murray State; Crowder posted a robust 17 points, 13 rebounds, 2 blocks and 3 steals on 53% true shooting. Scoring ten points on five possessions off cuts or teammate dribble penetration, he excelled at finding holes in the Racer defense, although his shooting range abandoned him, hitting one of five from deep. For an idea of his defensive activity; I made about twenty notes during the game. Not all were positive, but he stays very active & alert and has quick, strong hands. Many of the negative comments relied on an assumption that Crowder stood taller than 6’ 5”. He may struggle defending big NBA small forwards in the post. Routinely doubling & trapping effectively and generally hedging & recovering well on pick-and-rolls, Crowder made his presence felt at this end of the court, including drawing two charges.
During Marquette’s Sweet Sixteen loss against Florida, Crowder struggled with 15 points on 44% true shooting, however he added 7 rebounds and 3 steals. Jumpers constituted most of his fifteen shots, of which he converted a sorry two of ten. Defensively, he looked out-of-sorts also; not recovering well on pick-and-pops, finding himself out of position, or getting beat off the dribble. Positives existed though; trapping & receding to steal a pass and flashing quick, strong hands as help to wrestle the ball from a driving guard. Not a premier final game for Crowder; surely he longs to take the court competitively again.
Summary: Draftexpress listed Crowder’s best case as “shorter-saner-Ron-Artest”; a comparison that I inadvertently stole when describing MKG. Just to be clear, at age 24, Ron Artest earned NBA Defensive Player-of-the-year honors and provided the second-highest scoring on a 61 win team. I view this comparison as very high praise, and do not see Jae Crowder at quite that level.
Viewing the DX database, the shortest small forwards to amount to anything were Aaron McKie and Danny Green, both 3/4” taller than Crowder. Of over 400 players, around 25 measured smaller than Crowder and none registered a notable NBA career. In that regard, I think Crowder can be a trendsetter and prove usable as a short small forward. His strength, motor, defense, set-shooting and high basketball IQ makes him eminently useful. Some contender will snag him late in the first round, and I’ll call him a “shorter, equally-sane Kawhi Leonard”.
I think we should draft Sullinger at 4, Buford at 24, then trade Varejao for Koufos or Mullens. I hear Scoonie Penn may also be available.
I’m not saying ignore it entirely but to completely base your opinion on it is silly and I said that before. I’m a huge MKG fan but Beal improved greatly toward the end of his one year, which the rater doesn’t take into account well by Hollinger’s own admission, and I don’t think the draft rater should significantly sway your opinion on him either way.
For the record I want MKG. I would be fine with Beal as well if either are options.
I’m irritated with everyone devaluing the draft rater because of a few misses. We don’t ignore Chad Ford forever because he liked Darko Millicic. It’s an important piece of the puzzle that shouldn’t be ignored, and it also shouldn’t be the last word in your decision making. However, with a player like MKG, it’s a very encouraging sign given that he grades out well in spite of what is reported to be an inferior perimeter game, and that the draft rater doesn’t take defense into account well. This is obviously a good thing if you’re an MKG fan, and I… Read more »
What concerns me a bit about the draft (not this one per se) is that the next two are already projected to be putrid. If the Cavs management share that feeling, I’d definitely be looking at either moving up and/or getting another pick in this lottery by using future picks. I only move up if I absolutely love the player, otherwise I stay put at 4 and take the best available player, regardless of position. And I’m of the opinion that if Robinson is there because MKG and Beal were taken 2 & 3, then you take Robinson.
Regardless there are examples where it was dead on and examples where it’s been way off. Many examples of each. But to take it as fact is flawed logic.
Memphis was a terrible situation for him, obviously.
Hey Pete, the same thing you said about Henry coud’ve been said also for another guy the draft rater loved, Danny Green! A player needs the right situation sometimes to fulfill their potential. A great franchise shoud help a player do that. I would hope the Cavs are that type of organization…
The problem with what you said, Kevin, is nearly NO ONE thought Kyrie would be All-Star level his first year but the draft rater did. THAT is the point.
Where is John Henson expected to be drafted? I’m not saying he’s as good as Anthony Davis, but his measurements and a lot of his stats are EXTREMELY similar to the Unibrow. On top of that, he’s damn near ambidextrious. Any chance he’ll still be there at 24?
The draft rater really found a gem in Xavier Henry!
Hoopsdogg,
Regarding Crowders height; he has a lot of hair…any chance that causes the discrepancies?
Kj,
The problem with giving Hollinger credit for Iriving is that 75% of writers said Irving should be the #1 pick.
Surely Hollinger unearthed some diamonds in the rough and pointed out some flawed players. Try your comment again with those players.
AlexS and HoopsDoog, I disagree with the Harangody comparison and think Crowder can be a great 7th or 8th man. Harangody is a horrible athlete. Of the 38 small forwards in DX’s database for 2012, Crowder had the second-fastest agility drill and was in the top-third for standing vertical. Crowder is strong, agile and a good leaper. He plays hard and smart; his true shooting and pure point rating were 1st of the 17 likely drafted SF’s according to DX. He might be able to knock down 35% of his threes. I think he’s a talented, athletic player, and I… Read more »
Keep in mind I am not arguing for or against any prospect but to base your argument on a flawed tool is a bit of a reach.
All I am saying is it is a nice tool, but it’s not a flawless one. I think a lot of the confounding variables involved should give you pause when taking that list into account. It liked Wes Johnson, for god’s sake, who was an upperclassmen wing. He should not be in the league.
Yes, I know about one and dones. I’m just saying, it’s something to make one consider in maybe taking MKG or Drummond over Beal all things considered…and yes, wings are easier which gives more credence to his Kyrie pick last year and more hesitation about Beal over MKG this year.
One and dones. Dang autocorrect. Please, giggle at the obvious.
Furthermore he admits one and domes majorly mess with his system, and bigs are tougher to predict than wings.
Hollinger’s system isn’t perfect. It picked Michael Beasley over Derrick Rose, and also really liked Wes Johnson. I wouldn’t say disregard it completely but by no means should you take it as the word of god.
Ok, so if say at Hollinger’s draft rater got it exactly right last year in picking Kyrie to be the best incoming player than how can we ignore where he has Beal ranked? Do ya get me? He has Beal as the 11th rated player according to the list I saw posted. Both Drummond and MKG are in the top 5. Food for thought…
@ Matt
This could be what he’s referring to:
“While Cavs point guard Kyrie Irving is known to be a huge proponent of drafting North Carolina small forward Harrison Barnes”
http://www.hoopsworld.com/cavs-bobcats-consider-swapping-picks?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=cavs-bobcats-consider-swapping-picks&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Link Please? Also, have we not learned our lesson that catering to one players whims is not a great idea? Take whoever will make us the best team, and Kyrie will come around on him. Kyrie is close to barnes too anyways, so its not that telling that he would pick one friend over another. I really don’t want barnes, the guy does one thing really well, and it just happens to be the last thing you ever want to see a player do, a step back long range two. He’ll be a scorer in the league, and maybe not… Read more »
I noticed Chad Ford had the Cavs taking Will Barton @ 24 with his latest mock. Not a bad consolation prize if they miss out on Beal. MKG, Barton, hopefully Ezeli drops to #33, BPA @ 34. I guess I’d be happy with that. Although, I still think the half-court offense is shaky….at least for a while.
Rescue me from the comment monster, will you?
Alex, the Harangody analysis is very good. Both are players who got by on strength more than hops. Harangody benched 185 22 times I think, and Crowder 20. As a clarification, Crowder is probably 6’6″. He measured 6’5.5″ in shoes in New Jersey, and then 6’6.5 in Chicago. The measurement in New Jersey was an inch and a half shorter than it had been a year before, which probably meant it was a bad measurement. Another possibility is that Crowder works out so hard he compresses his body sometimes. Even weirder? He grew an inch and a quarter, and lost… Read more »
With regard to the Cavs first pick, I think it is time for the Cavs to either move up and get Bradley Beal (if they love him enough because it would likely take the 4th and 24th pick) because he won’t fall past Washington. If they don’t love him enough, we need to get on board with either MKG or Barnes. Personally I lean Barnes. I know this blog is not a huge Barnes fan, but I would argue that the Cavs could maximize his potential because we have Kyrie. His weakness in college appeared to be that he struggled… Read more »
He’s another Luke Harangody. Great stats in college and a great lockeroom guy, but doesn’t have the skill set to make up for his lack of height. With our picks we need someone who’s more than an 11th or 12th man.