My Draft Day Favorite Scenarios (plus a sixth tier)
2012-06-28Of all the rumors out there, I like two the best: picking MKG at #4 or trading the two first-round-picks for Brad Beal. That said, if the Cavs proceed a different direction, no complaining from me…not worth the wasted breath.
Earlier this season; I posted a series called “Building a Winner”. In the first post, a discussion of the “OKC Plan” entailed. I pointed out that the Thunder really posed an exception to the rule. Most runs of high lottery picks result in continued mediocrity. Over the last two drafts and next few, Cleveland owns an outstanding opportunity to insert themselves on the OKC side of the ledger. If they do – another exciting era begins for Cleveland basketball. If not…no need talking about that; the Cavs surely draft three future hall-of-famers tomorrow.
So with those as the stakes, here are four favorite draft day scenarios.
#4 – Michael Kidd Gilchrist
#24 – Evan Fournier
#33 – Doron Lamb
#34 – Festus Ezeli
Three years from now, a Kyrie, Fournier, MKG back-court would be amazing – provided one of the two teenaged wings learns to shoot. Great size, scoring, defense, and if MKG or Fournier never learn to shoot, they only need to play a quarter together. Doron Lamb spells the Frenchman at shooting guard, as Fournier switches to small forward while MKG rests. Ezeli serves as an upgrade over Erden, Samuels, etc.
#4 – Michael Kidd Gilchrist
#24 – Will Barton
#33 – John Jenkins
#34 – Mike Scott
Same story as before, except four NCAA players are drafted, tempered by the aged influence of 24-year-old Mike Scott. The Virginia Senior does not add great size, but his floor spacing at the four might look really nice next to Andy.
#2 – Bradley Beal
#33 – Quincy Miller
#34 – Jae Crowder
In this scenario, Miller slips a little, as ESPN shows him at #30 and draftexpress at #31, but I can dream. Best case scenario, Miller turns into the 6‘ – 10” wing scoring machine envisioned of him in high school. Relied upon as a back-up; perhaps Crowder can defend both back-court positions. Maybe not, but as a quality defender with an amazing physique and a great combine agility test, back-up shooting guards might struggle with his strength and length. And obviously, the scenario is rounded out with Brad Beal, eight-time-all-star and one-time Finals MVP (The voters didn’t want to give Kyrie four in a row).
#6 – Dion Waiters
#11 – Tyler Zeller
#33 & 34 – repeats of above
Ahh, the fabled Portland trade. I have halfway convinced myself that Dion Waiters becomes the next Russell Westbrook and Zeller provides a needed seven-footer with shooting range.
Finally, a sixth tier of players that I’ll define as “in the right situation, with good coaching, you might here these names again”. I didn’t invest much time sorting these players, but this takes me from 38 through about 70. No one not included in this list will play in the NBA. It’s impossible.
- Kevin Murphy – I have a certain affinity for the Tennessee Tech senior.
- Khris Middleton – The Texas A&M Junior struggled this season, but played solidly his soph year. This year was a mess, with his coach leaving before the season and new coach diagnosed with Parkison’s.
- Jared Cunningham – I think there are better slashing & defense wings in this draft.
- Miles Plumlee – I liked him before the combine, because of his offensive rebounding and how hard he played.
- Drew Gordon – Started at UCLA before transferring to New Mexico. NCAA’s fifth best defensive rebounder is a relatively young senior, turning 22 next month.
- Furkan Aldemir – A young Euro energy big man, but he just signed a four-year extension with his Turkish club.
- Tyshawn Taylor – I could have been talked into ranking Taylor higher in Tier 6.
- Darius Miller – 6′ – 7″ tall, reasonably athletic and a quality jump shooter and, he may stick as a fourth wing somewhere.
- Casper Ware – The little dynamo from Long Beach State will not approach the season Isaiah Thomas finished, but his speed, shooting and intensity make him a decent bet as a back-up point guard.
- Hollis Thompson – 6′ – 8″ and hit 43% of his threes his junior season. Marginal athleticism and associated defensive consequences possibly serve as his undoing.
- Kim English – He turns 24 before the next NBA season, but his sweet-shooting as an NBA sized two guard throws him in the mix as a nice spot-up shooter to have around.
- Jamychal Green – An athletic power forward that tries to dunk everything; he made 55% of his catch & shoot jumpers his junior year, but only 39% this season. Which percentage he approaches consistently will determine his NBA ability.
- Kevin Jones – Lead the Big East in scoring and rebounding.
- Kyle O’Quinn – I think he has gotten by based on overwhelming his competition with his size. That is not going to work anymore.
- Jordan Taylor
- Orlando Johnson
- Ricardo Ratliffe
- Bernard James
- Henry Sims
- Garrett Stutz
- Kostas Sloukas – Greek point guard made over 50% of his threes in Europe this year.
- Terrell Stoglin
- Darius Odom-Johnson
- Zack Rosen
- J’Covan Brown
- Robert Sacre
- Herb Pope
- Alex Young
- Robbie Hummel
- Tony Mitchell
- Quincy Acy
Hetrick – you totally nailed the Cav’s draft but with the Portland trade in mind. This is the only place I saw even considering Zeller being with the Cavs. Nicely done.
Oops, forgot to add a key salary cap component:
Cleveland:
James Harden
Tyrus Thomas
Charlotte:
Picks 4 and 24
Luke Walton
OKC:
Brad Beal
Shoot for the moon: TRADE
Cleveland:
James Harden
Tyrus Thomas
Charlotte:
Picks 4 and 24
OKC:
Brad Beal
@Jobu I think you’ve already had your weekly ration of rum and cigars.
My dream scenario if they stand pat is: 4-MKG 24-Perry Jones/Quincey Miller/Evan Fournier. They should take the highest ceiling guy available at 24. Eff playing it safe with a scrubby back up center like Fab Melo. Swing for the fence. It a freebee from Sessions, who did in fact opt out with the Lakers. If they move up for a second top 10 pick I would be okay with them dealing Andy, 24, the Kings pick and taking on a bad contract to get in the top 10. If MKG and Robinson are gone the Kings pick could be in… Read more »
What tier would you put this scenario? Houston is said to covet a high lottery pick. We trade picks #4 & #24 to Houston for their 12, 16 & 18. We then trade two of those picks (all three if they ask nicely) + Varejao to Orlando for Dwight Howard. Houston gets the high pick it wants. Orlando begins the post-Howard era with two first round draft picks and a quality starting center. I’d even give Orlando both second rounders or a future #1. The Cavs get Howard plus pick 16 or 18, which they can use to find someone… Read more »
Tyler Zeller will not drop to 24. At any rate, the Cavs need someone who can score. Especially if the draft MKG. Besides, the only way he gets absued on defense, is if he’s consistently guarding someone in the post. That’s unlikely.
If the cavs were a piece or 2 away I’d say trade up. I think either MKG, Beal, or Barnes helps them get better and poise them for a future playoff run. Losing picks or valued players to move up 2 spots doesn’t cut it. Having that #24 is definitely valuable and gives them another piece. #33,34 are more shots at getting a guy that can help. Look where we got Andy.
Ford has us getting MKG at 4, PJ3 at 24, John Jenkins at 33, and Kostas Papanikoloau at 34. That sounds pretty damn good to me actually. Love PJ3 and I think Scott + Irving + MKG can motivate him and make him the star he could be. We can get scary good quickly
MKG at 4
Sully at 24
33/34: Doron Lamb or John Jenkins, Festus Ezeli
OR (this may not be all that unreasonable)
MKG at 4
Trading Andy (and maybe a 2nd rounder) to get back into the mid-lottery (Rockets?) and grabbing Terrence Ross
Sully at 24
Festus Ezeli in 2nd round
I don’t see any scenario in which Barton doesn’t get consistently abused on defense. Too many other guys with too much upside are going to be there at 24. Barton isn’t any better than a lot of the guys who will be sitting there at 33 and 34. Have to go with the best player/position on the board here. Someone is going to drop, and we should take the best guy. Tyler Zeller? Andrew Nicholson? Yes please.
I’m going to say that the cavs dont make any trades. Here are my picks
4-MKG
24- Fab Melo
33- Doron Lamb
34- Festus Ezeli/Furkan Aldemir
I think the Cavs make the trade with Charlotte and give up #24 so in that scenario here are my ideal picks:
2. Bradley Beal
33 – Quincy Miller
34 – Festus Ezeli
My dream scenario is very farfetched but it still sounds good. Trade the 24th pick and andy(though i hate to see him go) to charolette for the no 2 and take Beal Take MKG or Barnes with the 4th (because at least one of them will be left after washingtons pick Trade the 33rd and 34th picks for A.) Sacramento’s 5th pick and take Drummond or B.) and a player or two and trade to Portland for the 6th and 11th and take Drummond/Robinson with the 6th and the best remaining PF/C left at that piont. Will it happen? Maybe… Read more »
OK, enough messing around. Time for predictions. Remember, it’s not what the Cavs SHOULD do, but what they will do. Bonus points for correctly predicting a trade.
4 – MKG
24- Will Barton
33 – Kyle O’Quinn
34 – Tyshawn Taylor
My dream scenario is the Cavs trade their 24th pick(+the other later picks and/or Andy) to try to get back within top 10 or even top 5! Likely to not happen, but like i said Dream Scenario
Chad Ford just assured us on twitter that the Cavs have no interest at Waiters/Ross at 4.
I think they should stay at 4 and move up again using a combo of picks and Andy. But only trade andy if we draft MKG
Is it 7 yet? Man I’m anxious. I really hope if we do trade up for Beal or MKG its because charlotte was going to take MKG.. I think regardless we may want to call their bluff, and just get Robinson at 4 if those two are taken. We can always try to trade back with charlotte for MKG after the fact, or stick with robinson and have 3 great players rotating in the post. The problem with this scenario, is that if the cavs like Beal significantly more than MKG they lose out on him. Personally, I’m happy with… Read more »