Andrew Bynum Trade Machine Fun
2012-07-18
So, I’ve been toying around with the NBA Trade Machine over on ESPN for the past couple of hours trying to figure out what a Lakers/Magic/Cavs deal would look like, which has been edifying in a couple of ways that I’ll get to in a minute. First, let me present to you a handful of trades that work:
Lakers get: Dwight Howard and Jason Richardson
Magic get: Andy Varejao, Luke Walton, Josh McRoberts, Omri Casspi, Christian Eyenga, and Cavs’ 2013 first-rounder
Cavs get: Andrew Bynum, Quentin Richardson, Glen Davis, and Chris Duhon
The Cavs get their man (Bynum), the Lakers get theirs (Howard), and the Magic get a clean slate by offloading nearly all their bad contracts for expiring ones. They’ll be terrible next year and have a decent shot at the number one pick, and they will have tens of millions of dollars of cap space once the 2012-13 season ends. The one thing that doesn’t make much sense to me is why the Magic would want a thirty year-old defensive big man, but according to Ric Bucher, the framework of the deal involves Varejao-to-Orlando, so I’ll just assume they covet him for whatever reason.
Jason Richardson is overpaid, but it’s not like the Lakers can sign any more free agents, so that point is moot. He played poorly last season (shot 40.8% from the field; he’s a career 44.1% shooter), but he’s only 31 and could be a good bench scorer, especially if he gets a steady diet of open threes when defenses collapse on Howard and/or Gasol. He would also be sharing some court time with Steve Nash, which never hurts one’s offensive game.
Glen Davis shouldn’t make upwards of six million dollars a year, but he would be similarly useful for the Cavs, who don’t have a PF who can knock down an open 13-footer. Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson are dead weight, but that’s the cost of doing business.
You could also sell me on a variant of this trade where the Cavs also give up the Heat/Lakers pick they have in the 2013 draft. If they’re going to roll the dice on a super-talented injury risk with attitude issues, it’s not like the 24th pick in the 2013 draft should be the stumbling point.
(To anyone saying, “Why wouldn’t LA make a play for Andy V?”: it’s a cap thing. The Lakers are paying Kobe/Gasol/Nash a combined $56 million next season and are well over the soft cap, so they can’t take on Howard and Varejao without moving Gasol.)
Lakers get: Howard and Richardson
Magic get: Varejao, Walton, Boobie Gibson, McRoberts, Casspi, and Eyenga
Cavs get: Bynum, Hedo Turkoglu, Duhon, and Davis
By offloading that egregious Hedo deal that pays him $11.4 mil and $12.2 mil in 2012-13 and 2013-14, respectively, the Magic get rid of their worst contract. They also dump Davis, J-Rich, and Duhon. The only bad contract they keep is Quentin Richardson’s, which pays him a little under $6 mil over the next two seasons. Every player they acquire has either a team option for next year or is off the books entirely. I didn’t include a draft pick in this scenario because the Magic shed a ton of salary, but if the Cavs were to throw in a first-rounder, I wouldn’t lose sleep over it.
Lakers get: Howard and Turkoglu
Magic get: Varejao, Walton, Gibson, McRoberts, Casspi, Eyenga, and Andrew Goudelock
Cavs get: Bynum, Davis, J. Richardson, Steve Blake, Q. Richardson, and Duhon
Again, a hunk of expirings for Orlando (give or take a draft pick), but this time Turkoglu goes to the Lakers and the Cavs absorb a cornucopia of bad contracts. The difference between the abominable contract amalgam of Q Richardson, Duhon, and Blake and the singular abominable contract of Turkoglu is negligible, since both Quentin Duhon-Blake and Turkoglu make about the same amount of money and their contracts expire in two years. (Technically, Turk’s got a player option for the 2013-14 season, but who wouldn’t cash in a season of mediocre basketball for $12.2 mil?) But the J-Rich and Davis deals run for the next three years, paying those guys a combined $38 million over that time period. This isn’t the worst thing in the world, because those guys are legitimate NBA players, and it’s not like the Cavs have a phenomenal bench, but if the Magic ask for a pick in this scenario, they had better ask the Lakers, because the Cavs are going to be tied down with salaries and will need their draft picks to help fill out their roster over the next couple of years.
Lakers get: Howard, Turkoglu, Richardson, and Duhon
Magic get: Varejao, Tristan Thompson, McRoberts, Eyenga, and Andrew Goudelock
Cavs get: Bynum, Metta World Peace, and Steve Blake
so much depends
upon
long tristan
thompson
dazed in wine
golden
beside the black
bench
(But seriously, your opinion of this trade revolves entirely around whether or not you like Tristan Thompson. Also, I apologize to William Carlos Williams. Remember when you used the phrase “penniless rumsoak,” and I swooned? I’m so sorry.)
What Does It All Mean?
Nothing right now. We have no idea how close this thing is to fruition or who the principals are outside of—again, I’m leaning on Bucher here—Howard, Bynum, and Varejao. What’s clear is: a.) the Magic want to get rid of some bad contracts, b.) the Lakers are aggressively pursuing Howard, and c.) the Cavs have lots of cap space and expiring contracts. The trade, if it happens, will look something like the ones mentioned above. These deals and very similar variants are the only ones that work cap-wise unless you start getting crazy and throwing Gasol into the mix.
A bit of experimenting leads me to this conclusion: the Cavs’ cap/expiring contract situation makes them an ideal facilitator for this sort of trade, and they can pretty much dictate their terms. While the Magic are desperate to get a fresh start out of the impending departure of their best player and the Lakers are fervently pursuing Howard, the Cavs can be dispassionate about this deal. If they don’t want to take an additional bad contract or give up another first-rounder, they can always pass. They’re not desperate to acquire Bynum, and, if the swap falls apart, they can return to their original plan of building through the draft.
What throws a wrench in this whole thing is the presence of the Houston Rockets, who have a bunch of young players and picks. I’m mildly perplexed about why they think Bynum would put them over the top. Bynum-Irving is a lot more appetizing prospect than Bynum-Lin, but then, they’re in Houston, which is a more desirable free agent destination than Cleveland. Regardless, they’re very capable of facilitating a Howard’s departure for LA, and they would be more able than the Cavs to provide the Magic with decent draft picks (they shipped out Kyle Lowry for a Toronto first-rounder) and recent draftees (Terrence Jones, Jeremy Lamb, and Royce White).
No matter what happens or doesn’t happen on the Bynum-to-Cleveland trade front, this is the first great example of what valuing cap flexibility and acquiring tradable assets can do for a rebuilding team. By carefully managing the cap and his assets over the past couple of years, Chris Grant has put the Cavs in a situation where they might be able to acquire an excellent player because they’re one of the only teams in the league that can help the Lakers land Howard and the Magic push the reset button on their franchise.
@Alex, it’s not 8 more points out of a black hole, it’s 8 more points on around 6 more possessions used. This is still excellent production, but after factoring in Bynum’s questionable knees and the half-step back the Cavs would take on defense, it’s hard for me to get excited about this deal.
My point is that Center has been the Cav’s strongest position since Lebron left…there’s not a whole lot to be gained by upgrading it. We could add the same amount of wins by bringing in a knock-down shooter for a whole lot less money.
We could just go for Howard… trade Orlando straight up. He’s a little older but better too
Eight more points at the center position is fantastic. So will the extra points we get from the development of Kyrie and TT, hopefully a few more from Gee, and any points Dion gives us above the Anthony Parker-created black hole at SG (plus Dion’s future scoring ceiling, whatever you think that is). Zeller is going to be solid as a rookie with room for improvement, and Samardo looks in much better shape and ready to contribute as a fourth big. The team doesn’t exist in a vacuum. If you think the current players on this team will never get… Read more »
I think Bynum’s impact could be measured by more than just stats. He’s a capable low-post scorer, and would command a double team from most opponents. That would free up space for Irving and others. Just that alone would improve the Cavs offense. Andy is a great player, but he just doesn’t make the impact on offense that Bynum would.
Does S&T of Bynum get him all the years/$ he can get via free agency? Is it even close? I would be extremely reluctant to roll dice on anyone staying in Cleveland, no matter how great the point guard or hometown fans. So if the trade does not include an extension, Cavs should be willing to eat contracts and a pick or two, but not the whole barn. If ORL wants to bottom out, is interest in Varejao just to transform him into a pick at the deadline? And would ORL be able to get better deal then for him… Read more »
8 points more per game is enormous in the NBA. Statistically, that improves a team’s estimated wins by over 20 games per season.
http://sportsstatsanalysis.com/2011/03/28/margin-of-victory-in-the-nba/
Correcting for a 66 game season, that would have made us the 6th seed last year. While there are concerns about Bynum’s durability, if you have an opportunity to grab the #2 center in the league (especially for such a relatively low cost), you do it. A few edge-of-the-lottery picks won’t have near the impact as a superstar.
Ok how about we just offer Howard a max deal contract and just sign him next summer? Apparently if he’s going to be difficult and never just say he’ll sign an extension and the explore free agency. Obviously he is looking for money if he’s gonna take that route maybe he just wants money. Who else could afford him next year ? I say we let out expiring contracts we would have traded expire and then sign him.
A word of caution for those who think the Cavs will be worlds better after this trade: the Cavs do not have a hole at center. Short term, the upgrade from Andy to Bynum is not that dramatic. We’ll get 8 more points per game at the center spot, and that’s pretty much the whole story. Bynum will really pay off in 3 years, when he’ll be in his prime and Varejao will be a step slower. But does it make sense to give up future picks and prospects in favor of this future production?
Now reporting that Cleveland won’t do the deal unless Bynum agrees to sign an extension, which is… dumb. Why would he sign an extension for 2 or 3 years when he could get a 5 year deal in free agency? Cavs are just going to have to roll the dice. The word is that the Magic want to bottom out and then rebuild through the draft. If that’s the case, then the Houston deal doesn’t make any sense for them, because Houston with Dwight is a playoff team and their picks aren’t as good. Houston does have a good collection… Read more »
Tristan isn’t even really being discussed, haven’t heard a single reporter mention it. As for the trade, I’m fine taking back as many bad contracts as it takes. They all expir before we have to extend KI/TT, so we basically get to rent Turk and some other scrubs for 2 years? Sign me up. The one think that okc/Miami don’t have is a 7 footer who can bang inside, protect the rim, and score at will. As for his attitude issues, a lot of it has to do with his feud with Kobe. Believe it or not, he hates being… Read more »
Seeing these deals puts this into a good context….if I were Orlando, there is NO WAY I would do one of these, when Houston will offer something like Kevin Martin, Terrence Jones, Royce White, and a few decent draft picks.
the espn trade machine only considers whether or not the trade works relative to players’ salaries, team salary cap etc. It does not consider a little something called REALITY…such as players age, skill level, injury status or, as the scenarios colin dreamed up illustrate perfectly, the complexity of completing a 3-team, 10+ player deal. its fools gold
@manwithpizza I totally agree. Hennigan isn’t going to get it all. Houston can’t take most of those back in a deal. The three way gives Orlando the best shot at a reboot. They will be Bobcats bad and probably have a top three pick next year.
look, for all who think Orlando is getting screwed. Lets look at the salary commitments they’d be dumping over the next 3 years.
Turkoglu – 23.6
Davis – 19.4
J. Rich – 18.6
Duhan – 7.5
Q. Rich – 5.4
TOTAL = 74.5 million
Sorry, even if you are giving Dwight Howard, you don’t get to dump $74 million in salary commitments AND get a ton of picks. Colin’s trade suggestions are for the most part reasonable.
On HoopsHype: David Lee, Bynum’s agent, said he was baffled by the recent Yahoo! report that listed Cleveland as a potential destination for Bynum in free agency. “When I read it online I was in Alaska with Andrew and his family … I was taken aback by the list considering there is nobody in anybody’s camp he could’ve been talking to. I have no idea where that came about.” Well, that doesn’t bode well. Sounds like there was a sportswriter out there looking at who had cap room, and throwing the Cavs name out there.
Btw, I said this in the other thread and that is that 2 sources said Bynum and Scott have a relationship and it is a good one. So let’s not deal in this “he won’t play for a taskmaster like Scott” BS, ok? Carry on…
I don’t see how Bynum is any more of an injury risk that Varejao. Andy is 7 years older. Pull the trigger any way you want on this one. This would be a great way to cash in.
We have 4 solid players that were recently drafted: Kyrie, Dion, Zeller, and Tristan. Gee and Casspi are also youngbloods.
Let’s add a real piece in the middle. Draft picks aren’t needed anymore. Cash them in!
You’re probably right. I put down that figure without double-checking.
Bynum is looking for the max and if I remember right, that is $20M+, not $16M, but those are my same thoughts.
Bynum is a very good player, but he does come with some risks. He’s got maturity issues and a history of knee injuries. I’d give up a few picks for him, but I’m not on board with giving up 2013, 2015, 2017, etc. If things with Bynum don’t work out, our only choice is to build through the draft, so we can’t go throwing around our picks like the Nets or Knicks, who can attract big name free agents. Plus, our team isn’t very deep, so we’ll need picks to bring in more players through either the draft or trades.… Read more »
If it takes four #1 picks, it’s a lot, but I think you still have to make the trade. Warren nailed it in his post. It’s a bigger risk to not make the trade. They never really got a Robin to LeBron’s Batman. With Kyrie and Bynum, I think you have that. If Waiters does actually shine….gravy! Something else to consider….the Cavs may be giving up a lot of draft picks, but if this pans out, they would become much more attractive to FA’s. Not saying it becomes a “hot spot”, but if you have a big 3 in Bynum,… Read more »
If this is real get the deal done as many picks as necessary. Try to avoid 3 year contracts
I would take back Hedo and Duhon because they have 2 years instead of 3 and give up our first next year and in 15 along with the sac pick and the miami/lakers. This might be enough. Lakers take J rich who as long as he didn’t nail Nash’s wife actually fits and helps the Lakers. If we buyout Duhon at the end of next season we would have room to offer Harden or a similar player the Max contract and resign Bynum. Then we have a expiring contract which in 2 seasons will have more value because of the… Read more »
We all know what a master Ramon Sessions is at feeding the post…
@Matt: Also, have to consider that the Lakers’ point guard situation has been a mess for a while, thus leading Kobe into fits of one-on-one type ball. Plus he shared the court with Gasol. I will say his attitude and injury history scares me, but the Cavs got to go get him if they can. This team plays in the NBA, not the D-League and the Cavs have lacked legitimate NBA players lately, let alone superstars. Bring on Bynum.
Andrew Bynum is 24 years old. Tyler Zeller is 22 years old. Think about how effing young Andrew Bynum still is, and how good he is, and then make the effing trade.
“how come he hasn’t played a significant role in getting past the second round with Kobe, Pau, and Metta.” Two reasons: Mike Brown and Kobe Bryant. Did you watch the Lakers/Thunder series? Kobe was playing hero ball, and going to isos and breaking out of the offense. Mike Brown stopped calling Bynum and Gasol’s number and just let Kobe play like a knucklehead. Now if the Lakers had Steve Nash, this probably wouldn’t have happened, but put Bynum on a team where he’ll get the ball, and he should be good.
Warren –
AMEN!!!!!!!!
I don’t care what trade is used as long as it gets done. Get Bynum to the Cavs. Look, the cap room and assets the Cavs have are set up to allow a situation like this to happen. Draft picks are great to have. The thing is, not many picks turn out to become the 2nd best C in the NBA. So you people seem to want to test one’s luck at the draft, rather than getting a sure thing? What will keep Kyrie in Cleveland? His hopes of getting a good lottery pick, or the FO making moves to… Read more »
Trades A, B, and D wouldn’t work. Nash won’t play with J-Rich again after J-Rich banged his wife in PHX.
Bynum, Hedo and Big Baby coming in, Andy, Luke (expiring) and Boobie (expiring) to the Magic, Howard to the Lakers. Lakers probably willing to throw in at least 1 first rounder and how many ever 2nd rounders it takes. Cavs give up 2014 first rounder – when that pick should in the 20s. TT no longer needs to guard anybody wide bodied, with Bynum, Zeller and Big Baby around.
Matt – Lets say, hypothetically, it takes zero picks, and just Andy, to get Bynum. With Bynum, Waiters, and Kyrie as our “big three” or whatever, plus Zeller and TT and some addlt pieces, we’re at least a 45 win team (unless Waiters is a total bust) – So those picks are around the 16th or worse. Now lets say we DONT pull off the trade because we only want to give up TWO first rounders vs FOUR or something. You’re telling me you’d rather take your chances hanging around the lottery for the next few year versus getting a… Read more »
Man, I don’t like any of these trades. The Cavs don’t need to be giving up any draft picks or taking on bad salaries for player they get on the free agent market for face value next year. What’s the point? If he won’t sign here as a free agent next year without taking on bad contracts and giving up draft picks, he won’t sign an extension with us either. These trades sound like half cocked media spinning more than actual well thought plans for the future by our GM.
Also Mallory and anyone else who thinks we should throw the kitchen sink at Bynum, and take back turkoglu, give andy and Thompson, and 4 first round picks, if bynum was good enough to lock in on just him, kyrie and Dion, how come he hasn’t played a significant role in getting past the second round with Kobe, Pau, and Metta? He was playing the 6th most minutes and 0 minutes for the last two lakers ships. I’m not saying he’s not a great player, but I don’t know how far he and kyrie and Dion can take us, and… Read more »
I was of the impression we would give up 2 picks, Varejao, and take back 2 bad contracts- I don’t want to take back all of the Magic’s roster. And as far as bad contracts go, I hope we get Hedo; he would still be a useful SF, even if he isn’t worth what he’s making. But a word to the ignorant- Andrew Bynum is the second best center in the league. He put up 18 and 12 despite playing with Pau Gasol, another dominant 7-footer, and Kobe Bryant. He has a great offensive game, and is a dominant defensive… Read more »
I get them from mainstream media outlets…
@Hoopsdog – Where do you get your information on Grant’s “reputation”? The only place I have seen him described as “difficult” is in mainstream media outlets. Their sources are likely people on the other end of the deal who are trying to blame Grant for not accepting a lopsided deal and cover their own arses. If people really didn’t want to deal with him, the Cavs would not be involved in every major trade discussion. I am not worried about Grant’s alleged “difficult” negotiating one bit.
@Jason – good point.
Jason, Its not like orlando is in a rush. I’m pretty sure Houston can still talk about trading them in 30 days, and I’m pretty sure Orlando has nothing to gain by jumping on a trade at one point in the offseason as opposed to another, whats going to happen in the next 30 days that they wouldn’t wait for? Hoopsdogg, you listen to the media too much. If teams were getting hesitant to deal with him, we wouldn’t constantly be hearing about teams trying to deal with him. Every team is trying to make themselves better, and the cavs… Read more »
Mallory, I’m not that hung up on throwing a first rounder or two or three into the deal, but 5 or 6 plus Zeller and Thompson is a lot, and Orlando is going to demand a lot and knows how unvaluable those first round picks will be when we have Kyrie and Bynum. Giving up all those assets, and possibly Zeller/Thompson/Waiters, along with taking back bad contracts, is going to lock us into Kyrie/Bynum and not much else. Will we be a better team next year because of it? ABSOLUTELY! Will that be the best hing for us to do… Read more »
I think TT, Waiters, or Zeller will be a requirement for a Orlando. The problem with our draft picks is that if we get Bynum, they’re probably not lottery picks any more, and the Lakers and Heat’s picks certainly aren’t. I don’t think anything’s come of this. Grant, by report, is getting a bad reputation as a guy who likes to kick the tires on deals, say he’s going to do something, then change the terms. Teams are becoming reluctant to return his calls. If this goes nowhere, I think it will sour more people on dealing with him.
Players who have been drafted can’t be traded for 30 more days. So if Houston wants to trade the likes of Terrence Jones and company, they are going to have to wait to do it.
Not saying it couldn’t happen down the road, still plenty of time before the season starts. But right now, that isn’t an option.
I like trade, ideas B and C, am okay with trade idea A, don’t care for Trade Idea D. I don’t want to give up both Andy and TT. I think one of those guys fits well next to Bynum with their energy games. In fact, getting Bynum might be the best thing for TT’s development. He can focdse on becoming an defense/rebound, shot blocker who gets his points on putbacks and such without the pressure to score more that comes with being the fourth overall pick. Also trade D does not leave us with a legitimate starting power forward.… Read more »
Scott getting fired is inevitable. His tough love (maybe not even love) act only lasts so long. Remember how he benched Kyrie and TT to start the season to make them earn minutes….then at the end of the year he was starting D-Leaguers for major minutes? How much longer can you be taken seriously after that? And I agree he can’t coexist with Bynum maybe not even Waiters.
I agree with Matt. Trades B-D are a steaming pile of “you know what” for Orlando. I would think Orlando would want lots of picks. I wouldn’t be surprised if we would have give them the Heat/Lakers pick, the Sacramento conditional pick and our pick plus Varejao. The Lakers (I think) don’t have many picks, but would likely need to chip in a future number 1 as well. I still think I would do this if Bynum is signed long-term. He is only 24 and is much better than anything we can get in the draft next year. The reason… Read more »
Also, the Lakers may be more willing to help do the deal with us taking back contracts or giving more assets due to Houston being in the West.
I said this in the previous post but I feel like it has to be said again… Wait now…. everyone is STILL hung up on draft picks? Listen up kids – we’re not hanging around the lottery for the next three years. If we do, forget about winning for the near and far forseeable future. We’re two years into tank mode now – great, but if, two years from now, we’re still at the bottom of the barrel, I’d be very concerned about Kyrie sticking around. Furthermore the moment teams hang around the lottery for more than the minimum required,… Read more »
Matt –
I think Varajeo, 2 1st rounders, 1-2 second rounders and take back not more than 2 “bad” contracts. Varajeo is worth at least 1 good draft pick, if not a pick and some other assets at the trade deadline to them. Houston got Lin with $15M in 3 years, and has less cap flexibility than us (I believe)… They may be limited to what they can take back…
You seem to be screwing Orlando over in pretty much all of these deals. They will want draft picks, and plenty of them. I don’t know if Bynum will be worth it, but I would certainly take any of the trades your threw out there. But I doubt Orlando would. Dan, Houston is willing to give up a lot for Dwight, so if the lakers want him, and Cleveland wants Bynum, we have to give Orlando a better offer than Houston. Its as simple as that. Yes, 1 draft pick is better than losing dwight for nothing, but thats not… Read more »
I’m apprehensive about this move because I think a move like this ends with Coach Scott getting fired in a few years. Scott wants his players to work as hard as they possibly can and Bynum is far too selfish and lazy to oblige. When there are eventually those irreconcilable differences and push comes to shove, who is getting canned? The player with a guaranteed 5 year contract over 100 mil or the coach making 3 to 5 mil or whatever it is? I love Byron Scott. I love the vision that He and Chris Grant have for this team.… Read more »
Here’s my question… If Andy to ORL, Bynum to CLE, Dwight to LA works in the trade machine as-is, and ORL wants mostly draft picks which can come form either CLE (most of them), or from LA, why do so many contracts have to move? I know ORL wants to move them, but seriously, they will have NOTHING if they don’t trade Dwight. How realistic is it for them to want so many draft picks AND move 2-3 bad contracts. You can shift Walton over to ORL and take back Hedo, which would also help us fill the 3 position.… Read more »
The Cavs have more draft picks than they’ll ever use. They also own the Magic’s 2013 and 2014 second rounders. Personally I think the Magic should do the deal where they can dump the most of their bad contracts. They aren’t getting any premium draft picks in any of these deals. Blow it up and start over. The Magic will be Bobcats bad next year so they’ll at least have a crack at Muhammad, Noel, Ausitn, Zeller or McAdoo. Jabari Parker should be in the 2014 draft. The Magic are one of the few teams in the league that has… Read more »
Are the Richardson/Nash’s wife rumors true? If so, Richardson might have to go to Cleveland and Duhon or something else to LA.