Ten Things to Like About… Anderson Varejao
2012-10-07
Remember the game last year, when Varejao got the ball on a fast break, and he lasered a spinning, over-the-shoulder pass to a spotted-up shooter? I mean, he charged, but that was awesome.
Fan favorite Anderson Varejao hits the court today.  I stand entrenched in the “do not trade Andy” group. Detractors point to his age and injury history, but neither should be a huge concern. He turned thirty on September 28th (Happy Birthday!!); interestingly, within two weeks of Nene and Tyson Chandler, the two $60 million centers from last off-season. Those guys have played 50% and 100% more career minutes than Andy; Varejao still sports lots of tread on his tires.
Prior to injury last year, his performance reached career peak levels. Averaging eleven points and eleven rebounds; a halfway-legitimate all-star debate existed. Remember this game? A man possessed last year, these specific 20 points and 20 boards stand as one of the most single-mindedly determined efforts I recall seeing.
Regarding propensity for missed time, from 2006 – 2007 through 2010 – 2011, Andy averaged 63 games per season.  He never missed a playoff game (also interesting; Nene stands at 63 and Chandler at 64 games a year during this time).  Ignore last season for a few reasons. First, it was accelerated and shortened. The season stretched two months shorter and sixteen games less than normal. Second, the Cavs arguably tanked. When Drew Gooden karate-chopped Varejao on the wrist, the announced timeline for return was four-to-six weeks.  The team exhibited no urgency though, and stretched it to eleven weeks. Under normal circumstances, would he return? During a typical season, six weeks amounts to 20 games…which leaves him at approximately 63.
So including the playoffs, Andy suited up for 80% of games over the last five full seasons.  He was better than ever last year.  What’s not to like?  For eight years, Andy hustled his way into Cavs fans hearts. Now it is time to climb the record books.  The seasons described above cover Andy’s ascent towards his prime. The next three seasons constitute the slow start of the slide down the career parabola.  A reasonable assumption is similar production for the two timeframes.  From 2006 – 2007 through 2010 – 2011, those numbers include, per game: 2.45 offensive rebounds, 5.13 defensive boards, 0.90 steals, and 0.79 blocks.  If Andy played 63 games per season for the Cavs for three more seasons at those levels, he will:
- Have played the sixth most games ever for the Cavaliers; sitting only one game short of Austin Carr and 27 shy of Hot Rod Williams.
- Rise to third in Cavs history with 1539 offensive rebounds, sitting only 81 behind Hot Rod Williams for second.
- Move to fourth all time in defensive rebounds; less than one-hundred behind Lebron.
- He would rank fourth for total rebounds; only 45 short of Hot Rod.
- Climb to sixth on the franchise leaderboards for steals.
- Ascend to fifth all time in blocks, and positioned a handful of swats from moving past Lebron.
- Accumulate the seventh-highest total win shares over the Cavs’s forty years, including fourth in defensive win shares.  If Andy maintains his recent rate of 3.1 defensive WS for five more seasons, he overtakes LBJ at the zenith of that list.
- Did you know that Andy, Zydrunas and Lebron currently stand tied at 71 career playoff games wearing the Wine & Gold? Next playoff game for Varejao places him alone on top.
- Currently, he ranks fourth in career playoff rebounds for Cleveland, resting four shy of Brad Daugherty and 193 from Lebron. Can Varejao play twenty-five more playoff games for the Cavs? If so, wrestling the top spot from the reigning-MVP appears likely.
- Objectively and subjectively, during the Cavs most-recent playoff season, Anderson Varejao surpassed Jim Chones to find his place as the fifth big man on the All-Time Cavs Team. Â With three more seasons, I move him above Hot Rod Williams, and only behind Big Z, Brad Daugherty and Larry Nance.
Don’t you want to see your favorite floppy-haired Brazilian further stake his claim as a Cavalier All-Timer? How about moving LBJ down a few team leader-boards? Andy will only be 32 years old at the end of this contract. He brings much needed maturity and hard-working attitude to a young and impressionable team; a squad appearing poised to make noise by 2014 – 2015. With twelve more picks in the next three drafts and $25 million of cap space, plenty of opportunity exists to add a high-level small forward, a back-up point guard, and additional depth…without trading Andy.
So, in parting, the only reason to trade Andy remains through a James Harden sign-and-trade. Â I could live with that.
Nathan, I have two problems with that analysis. PER is much better suited for perimeter offensive players, and doesn’t do a good job at all of measuring defensive capabilities, so says the inventor of the stat. Big men, by being much more often in the high percentage shooting areas, have a bigger impact on defense than perimeter players generally. Also, during the regular season perimeter players have an easier time getting into the paint, so their regular season records are inflate compared to when it really matters, the post season. Unless you are the heat, (or even if you are… Read more »
Whether or not Andy is or will be the best Cavs “big” of all time is less important to me than him being one of the best Cavs of all time. I hope he ends up having his number retired and putting up some more very memorable playoff performances. As far as stats go, Andy has always been a player whose game is better than his pure stats numbers. Yes, defensive wins shares, defensive rating, and plus minus help his cause a lot, but there’s no stat for hustle, great high post passes that lead to freethrows and open corner… Read more »
I would argue that if Andy has the series of his life in the NBA finals, averaging something like 20 points, 15 boards, 3 steals for the series as the Cavs win, *then* an argument could be made for him as the greatest Cavs big of all time. Not only because of his skill, but because of the sheer effort he puts into every game, and because (in this hypothetical universe) that effort culminates in a championship.
I love, love, love Andy. But best Cavs big of all time? Not a chance. Larry Nance may be the most underrated NBA player of all time and should be in the Hall of Fame. Daugherty was an elite center who, if he had stayed healthy, would have most likely had a Hall of Fame career. Andy is on par with Hot Rod; he’s probably a bit better than Hot Rod. And no one would argue for Hot Rod Williams as best Cavs big of all time. Doesn’t matter how many good-not-great years Andy plays, he has no case.
Brian and Nupe, I agree the prospect of Andy as best Cavs big of all time is very much a stretch. That was one of the basics of the article. But at some point longevity outlasts peak production, right? Who is the greater NBA player, Ray Allen or Tracy McGrady? Nance played 6.5 seasons for the Cavs, Daugherty only 8. I was a pre-teen when they were peaking for the Cavs, so my objective viewing of them is almost nil. Let’s say Varejao plays 14 seasons for Cleveland, and for the next two, he plays 150 games and averages the… Read more »
I’m not sure how much andy would have been able to get on the court with those daugherty, nance, hot rod teams. all three were a good bit better overall. that said, daugherty played mostly in the middle and under the rim and nance (in my memory at least) didn’t stray all that far away from the middle on defense, so we might have seen andy at small forward instead of winston bennet & chucky brown. funny to think about
Here are the top 5 players at each position (by PER), followed by the position their teams finished in the overall standings: PG: Paul: 8 Rose: 1 Westbrook: 3 Parker: 2 Irving: 27 SG: Wade: 4 Ginobili: 2 Bryant: 6 Harden: 3 Johnson: 9 SF: James: 4 Durant: 3 Anthony: 13 Pierce: 10 Granger: 5 PF: Love: 21 Griffin: 8 Aldridge: 20 Faried: 11 Millsap: 15 C: Howard: 12 Bynum: 6 Jefferson: 15 Duncan: 2 Monroe: 22 It might have been a fluky one-year kind of thing that it ended up so one-sided, but it seems fair to say that… Read more »
I think star perimeter players are overrated. The best two players in the championship game last season were not perimeter players, and the year before that only one was (lebron was a SF in 2011, a PF in 2012, and their success hinged pretty directly on that fact if you ask me). The Heat are the only team in the last decade to win a championship without a very good defensive post presence, and that only required by far the best player alive playing his best ball yet, a first ballot hall of famer still in his prime, and a… Read more »
But the Cavs don’t need to give up Andy to get good role players. Their salary situation is so good that when they need good role players, they’ll have no problem getting them without losing other role players. How many role players do the Cavs really need anyway? With Andy/Zeller at center, a wealth of youthful talent at PF, and Kyrie, Dion, and Gee all seemingly part of the long-term plan, that leaves maybe two rotation spots to fill. Basically, my argument is that they have to fill one of those spots with a star, and one with a role… Read more »
Nathan, I’m going to have to disagree with you there, about the role players versus getting a star. If you have a bunch of role players who are pretty good but not great, you’re probably doing that cheaply and have the ability to add a star to put you over the top. If you have a star and some scrubs, it’s much harder to get the role players without losing the star. Also, (perceived) stars have a nasty habit of taking over franchises and pushing them in directions they shouldn’t go. A star is great, but a star is not… Read more »
An Andy-Zeller rotation at center will probably be one of the best center rotations in the league for a long time. It’s a good feeling to have a position tied down firmly like that…i’m not sure I would want to give that up for another young guy with a ceiling as a good role player. The Cavs already have an embarrassment of young guys with ceilings as good role players. If we need them, given our cap situation, we can always pick up good role players when we need them on down the road. What the Cavs need is a… Read more »
There is no way for Andy to become the best Cavs big-man of all time. Bottom line is he’s just not good enough. I love his game and his hustle – if he stays a Cav for the next 5 years or so, he’ll likely have many records, but still not be the best. I can’t imagine a scenario where I would ever prefer Andy in his prime over Brad or Larry or __ in thier prime. IMO, the ‘best’ ever is the player that I would choose over any other when comparing prime to prime. If Andy is a… Read more »
Exactly…ship him out, and we’re banking on Zeller, Tristan, Leuer, and Jones somehow becoming a respectable defensive frontcourt. They’ve got a long way to go.
Has any of the pro-andy trade people ever stop to wonder what if we become a contender that would need a guy like Andy? Our team is not far off and they want to ship him to another team when we could very well be in the same position soon. We were in the race til he got hurt last year lets not forget that.
For him to become the greatest Cavs big of all time, he would have to be a key cog in a championship team…that’s the only way I see. He does put up some eye popping stats too, though…in addition to his awesome rebounding, his steal rate led all centers by a considerable margin last year. The amount he’s getting paid compared to other franchise centers is also pretty ridiculous…guys like Brook Lopez are getting paid like twice as much, haha.
I’m okay with them keeping or trading Andy. I love his energy and he really does have a cap friendly contract. The Cavs are already a really young team. Having a vet like Andy around would be great for the kids development. If they can get a young asset or an intriguing future unprotected lottery pick I’d be okay with them trading him too. I still think the Spurs would be an ideal partner for their 2014 or 15 first rounder. I see building a team as asset management. There are times to buy and times to sell. Andy was… Read more »
A question to readers: is there a scenario where, in your opinion, Andy could become the best Cavs big man of all-time? Like, if he played through his age 35 season and pummeled the others with his longevity? Perhaps if he was an influential member of a series of 55 win Kyrie-lead teams, including retiring as part of the 2018 NBA champs?
Daugherty made 5 all-star teams. Nance made two, plus three all-defense teams. Zydrunas leads the franchise in games played, rebounds and is second in points (plus two all-star games). What would it take to surpass those three?