Part 2: A Numerical Take on Dion’s First Two Weeks
2012-11-13Based on data available at  hoopdata.com, through November 12  games, there are 62 shooting guards averaging ten or more minutes per game. Of those, Dion:
Making 50% at the rim against OKC
- Takes the thirteenth most shots at the rim per forty minutes (4.5). Of all shooting guards who have made more than one such shot, he has been assisted on the fourth lowest percentage. He gets the ball to the basket. Unfortunately though,  he converts a poor 50%, approximately 15% below NBA average this season.  Kyrie struggled similarly early last season, and that turned out allright, so hopefully this tide also shifts for Waiters.
- He jacks the nineteenth highest number of long-twos per forty (4.3), while nailing a robust 48%. This is 10% higher than current league average for SGs. These are the least efficient shots in the game, and ideally Dion learns this and quits showing a propensity for them.
- From three, he hoists frequently (6.5 per 40, 19th for SGs), and makes them at a ridiculous rate of 53%.
- He is only shooting 0.18 free throws per field goal attempt. This is below average for a shooting guard. His foul shooting of 60% sits well under the 75% from his two collegiate seasons.
Clearly the shooting from deep is unsustainable, but if everything else also ‘normalizes’, how does his production look for the first seven games? Well…
- For a guy attacking the basket reasonably often, I will assume his ability to draw fouls eventually regresses to the league-mean. If he also drained three-quarters of his freebies; that adds six points through his first seven games.
- If his shooting at the rim was only slightly below league average for an SG (59% compared to 65%), he makes two more field goals. So, four more points.
- If his shooting on long twos reduced to 43% (compared to 38% average), he only loses one bucket over the first two weeks.
- The huge aberration is the three point shooting. If his shooting from deep approached his collegiate level of 37%, he makes five less to date, or a 15-point reduction.
By subtracting seven total points and adding five more free throw attempts to his current seasonal output; his true shooting calculates as 54.4% – exactly league average for a shooting guard. That would rank 23rd of the 62 players, while using a relatively high distribution of possessions (19th most).
For what it’s worth, this occurred against a tough schedule. The defensive ratings of the Cavs opponents to date are: 2nd, 5th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 16th, and 26th. The team already braved a west-coast road trip, yet maintains a non-horrid offense (20th of 30 teams). Softer defenses should be forthcoming.
Overall, it is very reasonable to expect Dion to regress, but if he finishes with league average true shooting, high-usage, and an assist-to-turnover ratio above one; I will be thrilled. Performance to that degree from a pair of 20-year-old guards exceeds all expectations.
I do hope Waiters takes his conditioning seriously, hires a nutritionist, etc. A sleek Dion, moving a split-second faster and jumping a hair higher would be awesome. Work on this, young man. Your body is your temple, and if you do this right, a long NBA career, two max-contracts, etc, can be yours.
(Also, see my Part 1 article below on the Cleveland bench.)
Great stuff on Dion, Ben!
Everything I could find on Dion suggested an incredible efficiency to his game and an uncanny ability to shoot off the bounce. Not just 2 dribble pull-up ala Jason Terry either. He consistently makes shots off a live dribble. Since that is customarily a difficult shot for most people, and Dion’s off hand on this J makes him look a bit goofy, people assume he has just been getting lucky and making “bad shots.” But they might not actually be awful for him. Of course I don’t expect him to continue shooting 50plus% from 3, but considering his unique ability… Read more »
Ben, I am certainly a Dion fan and think he is capable of big things, but you are practicing some hyperbole. 40% three point shooting is the realm of three point marksman. Daniel Gibson is a career 41% shooter. Kevin Durant and James Harden are really good high-usage shooters, and they both fall around 36 – 37% for their careers. That is an awesome percentage for a large volume guy; if Dion actually shoots 40%, that will be outstanding. As far as his finishing, at the rim he was 5 of 10 over his first three games and 6 of… Read more »
@ Nate. I completely agree. The long 2 was turned Dirk into a supersatr. If he can continue to shoot +45 he turns the infamous long 2 into a weapon
On the judgeing coaches thing. I agree its reallly hard to actually rank them becaue I think a coach like Pat Rielly or Phil Jackson would be terrible on a terrible team lke the bobctts where as I think that Mike brown probably could have gotten them 5 more wins. I think brown would be an excellent coach on a young bad team or even a fringe playoff team. He’s a very good regular season coach and defensive coach, and even regular season offensive offensive system coach for an average team. He struggles when he has to account for multiple… Read more »
Speaking strictly on value per pick, the Browns definitely reached. This is a QB’s game now – teams rarely have featured 3 down backs.
@ Nate Smith how awesome would it be if Dion really did end up being a top 3 point threat? That would open up so many opportunities offensively for him.
No, the Browns didn’t reach for Richardson. He’s been fine. The real problem was not offering up enough to get Griffin. That’s the type of draft pick that they needed. Instead they can be happy with their draft, Richardson looks good and Weeden looks like he can improve to the point where if they get enough talent he should be just good enough.
The problem is that they had more draft picks to trade than the Redskins and they didn’t do it. Griffin looks like a star and a franchise altering type of player. It’s another missed opportunity for them.
@DaveR There is such a thing as value in the NFL draft due to it’s length, basically. There is no such thing as value in the NBA draft, really. Anyway, the last 8 years or so of the NFL has proven almost conclusively that you can find an above-average RB after the first 2 rounds. You certainly NEVER draft one as high as Richardson esp. since RB ‘s also have such short careers, on average. Furthermore, having a good-to-great RB doesn’t mean winning lots of games or advancing far in the playoffs (see the Giants of the last few years).… Read more »
off topic but how did the browns “reach” on TRich? And how do you make that assessment now? The leading pick for the Browns was Blackmon. Right NOW he looks terrible. I think you say this because of Doug Martin’s relative success but the Browns weren’t picking him at #3. back on topic. Dion will be fine. He has no choice but to do well given how little scoring anyone but KI can provide. Here is a stat line from an ex-Cav….20.6 ppg, 5.5 apg, 4.9 rpg, 75% FT. Who? Ricky Davis in 2002-3! I’m not comparing them directly as… Read more »
DaveR,
Ricky Davis was terribly inefficient at scoring and also turnover prone. Early indications are that Dion can score efficiently and also be a willing defender.
I’m going to the Nets game tonight.
Who wants to meet up for a celebratory beer after?
@Cols714
Not everything is about you, I wasn’t referring to your comment, but the general conversation. ‘RIngzz’ if anything was a jab at ESPN commenters and the like.
Kj
I agree 100% with what you said. Dion is great. It’s only because of the lack of pre-draft hype about him that people are still wary.
Isaac
Who says “ringzzz” is my criteria? Mike Brown coached two superstars. Both stars ended up not respecting or liking the system they were place in. So yeah, Mike Brown isn’t a good coach.
Maybe he’s a great defensive coach and should be an assistant. But I’d be pretty mad if my favorite team hired this joker again.
Btw, one could only hope the rest of the sports media would take a page from Sam Amico’s play book on how to treat an evolving opinion on a draft pick. He didn’t love the pick and thought the Cavs reached (though there really is no such thing in a 2 rd draft. Stupid hangover stuff from the NFL draft where a team,most certainly, can reach. Yes, I’m looking at you, Browns, with your Richardson pick!) but watched closely Dion’s play in summer league, pre-season and the regular season and now has evolved into a big supporter of the pick… Read more »
I think objectively judging coaches is ultimately a lost cause, especially if ‘ringzz’ is your ultimate criterion. They are just too tied up with the players available and the GM’s judgement. We’ll never know how much of Shaq and Jordan’s success was down to Phil Jackson, and how much of Jackson’s success was down to them – 70/30 split? 80/20? 99/1? Impossible to say. If Jackson had coached the bobcats last year, could he have done much better? Then the coaches that people seem to regularly put forward as excellent can have a few bad seasons in a bad location… Read more »
I think people have to re-adjust their take on Dion. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: he shot better from 3 last year than “greatest shooter EVAH” Brad Beal. Thorpe was on True Hoop TV saying Dion takes bad shots and then Dion goes and lights up PHX. Sure we can expect some regression to the mean but let’s also admit that many were wrong about Dion as a shooter. Period. Btw, did you see him BLOW BY Westbrook the other day? It was the quickest move I’ve seen him make yet and gets me drooling thinking… Read more »
Anyone else going to the Nets game tonight?
I think they fired Mike Brown when they did, because the Lakers would have an easy schedule and a long homestand, so it would make the decision look good. That said, he may not have been a good choice for them.
D’Antoni’s teams regularly had around average defensive efficiency. They played at a super fast pace, so the games were high scoring. He’s not Thibodeau, but he’s not as terrible as people think either.
Anyways, enough about the Lakers. Excited to see Neon Dion take it to Brooklyn tonight!
Nate you need to do “my middle name is” descriptions for every player in the league. It could be like Hollinger player profiles. I would pay for insider just to see that for 400 some odd players
OK OK, throwing Howard in there was dumb; However I stand by my point that Mike Brown is not a good coach. Both the Lakers and the Cavs seemed to hate whatever kind of offense he wanted to run. Both star players, LeBron and Kobe didn’t seem to respect him all that much.
Mitch Kupchak and Jim Buss are lunatics who don’t know how to handle anything. Mike Brown was hamstrung. The Lakers lose because they can’t deal with the new NBA and its slew of quick, penetrating guards. So what do they do? They hire the worst defensive point guard in the league, and trade for a shotblocking center with a bad back. The Lakers offense isn’t why they can’t beat anyone, it’s their defense. The Princeton offense isn’t the problem. But they have to go all in on Nash and have to re-sign Howard, so they hire, Mike “my offense is… Read more »
His at the basket stats will go up. They were much better in the last two games, and he seems to have figured out some better attacking angles and methods. If he works on his left in the off-season, they’ll go up even more. His 3 point shooting will come back to earth, or he will be the greatest three point shooter of all time. He’ll also get better at getting to the line and getting free throws. Part of it is just getting calls. I’ve seen him nailed on some plays and not get a call. He’s a rookie…… Read more »
Cols – I think the standard needs to be lowered a bit if “Nothing to show for it” means not winning a championship ring. Mike Brown won a lot games (and a lot of playoff games). He has a better resume in this regard than Stan Van Gundy who coached Wade and Shaq, and then Howard. And I think Van Gundy is a great coach. It’s really silly the way a championship is the be all end all determinant for someone’s worth when it’s such a collective effort. Erik Spoesltra went from way over his head to one of the… Read more »
It’s pretty generous to say that he had “seasons” with Howard.
Not defending him, though.
Off topic
Is Mike Brown the worst coach ever? He has had seasons coaching LeBron, Kobe, and Howard and has pretty much nothing to show for it.
Good stuff Kevin, thanks. It’s good to think of what his numbers would likely look like with a larger sample. Whats been impressive and exciting is that he has the confidence to take these tough shots and has been knocking them down. Hopefully he’ll attack more often and stop taking 20 footers with 20 seconds on the shot-clock, but I’d rather have him be overly aggressive and have to reign him in than have him be passive and be talking about lighting a spark.
I don’t know, this seems skewed to make him look worse than he is. Is he really “jacking up” long twos and threes when he’s making tons of them? I agree that the long shooting isn’t sustainable, but when a player is making them, of course he should continue to shoot them until he cools off. Like Irving, it seems that when he is shooting well from the outside he should continue to shoot from the outside. The key is when he isn’t that he is able to get to the basket. Like Irving, he also seems to be able… Read more »
Cols714,
I just like to vary my verbage selection (as best I can…my vocab is limited). He is taking alot of long twos and threes, but he is a really good shot maker. His percentages will get worse from there though.
The main point of the article is that even when the shooting cools, it is reasonable to expect him to maintain a solid level of production due to current underperformance in other areas.