Neon Dion – The First Month
2012-11-29
David Thorpe has assessed the rookies after one month and Dion didn’t make his top 10. Here’s what he had to say about Waiters:
“Dion Waiters, Cavaliers — Nov. 23: Waiters still looks like a more dribble-happy version of Marcus Thornton with a bigger upside. His raw numbers looked good against the Magic — he scored 25 points and dished out 5 assists with no turnovers. But I counted him shooting 3-for-10 on bad shots, meaning he missed seven times when he had far better options than what he chose: step-back 3s with time on the clock, a one-on-three transition drive and “hope” shot, and forced long jumpers.
During Cleveland’s recent five-game stretch, he made five shots per game and missed 12 per game, which is tough to swallow when Cleveland lost four of those games by close margins. If Waiters learns the value of good shot selection, he’ll see his shooting percentages go up while his team wins more games.”
Thoughts?
You also have to look at how Wade came into the NBA with a winning atmosphere. Having Shaq as you’re go to for much of the season is a pretty ideal situation for anyone. Wade didn’t really become Wade to me until those last few games of the Championship season.
So much ado about Dion Waiters, but one thing that I haven’t seen addressed more is: how has he IMPROVED so far throughout the season? We all know about Dion’s potential to be Dwayne Wade, etc, but rookies tend to screw everything up so it’s assumed they exhibit deficiencies. I should HOPE Dion, or any rookie, is not playing at or near their ceiling, because nothing is scarier than the player who CEASES to grow. What Dion can or can’t do at the present is not so important 15 games into his NBA career; it’s what he could do in… Read more »
“student of the game and competitor” are is very subjective Cols, I’ll give you that. But based on the fact that wade is an incredibly smart on court player and a truly fierce competitor who has willed his teams to victories many times, and has shown he will give up shots and star power to win, win, win, and in my opinion (which is all one can really have on judging those two qualities) is one of the smartest and most competitive players in the game, for the time being I’ll go ahead and give wade the edge. Dion can… Read more »
@WitmI
All statistics take a larger sample size before you can see a trend. Advanced statistics are just a different way of evaluating a players performance outside of the traditional per game statistics like points or rebounds. While it is definitely way too early to use Advanced Statistics (or any statistic) to judge what the long term potential of a player like Dion is, it is not to early to use Advanced Statistics to evaluate his play up to this point in the season.
I agree that comparing players to future HOFers is a bit much. However, how do you know that Wade is a better “student of the game and competitor”?
You have no idea if this is true or not.
All you guys hating on thorpes rankings, He’s not redrafting, or calling out how he thinks all the rookies will do in their careers. He’s saying, RIGHT NOW, who has been most effective on the court. Bad calls or not, unlicky finishes or not, Dion is missing a ton of shots. That is a very large factor in hurting a team. WitmI, again, Thorpe is not ranking rookies as prospects, but on results so far this year. That being the case, the small sample size is what it is going to be based on. And I agree, the wade comparisons… Read more »
I agree that comparing Dion to Wade is crazy; the guy has made 7 all-NBA teams and won two championships. Almost never should a rookie receive comparisons like that; they’re almost hopeless to live up to.
On a level playing field though; Waiters is one year younger than Wade when they debuted in the NBA. How would Waiters look at Syracuse right now? How would Wade have looked in the NBA during his final year at Marquette? Those would be more apt comparisons.
WitmI – not sure you what mean about converge. See my other comment. I should have just said FG%. He’s converting around the rim at less than 40%. See the other player comparisons. I agree with your assessment that he’s not going to be Wade, but could still be a superstar. Btw, every single person on this blog thinks Dion has star potential. I’m not sure where these spurious comments are coming from implying otherwise. Oh wait, yes I do,
Corey and Kyrie
I agree completely. This board is so negative, but you guys are exactly right. Let the others freak out.
Also, if you watched Wade in college, then watched Waiters in college, D Wade is a much better player in all aspects of basketball. D Wade may be a top 10 SG of all time, Dion does not have this ceiling. He does not have Wade’s athleticism, court vision, finishing ability, understanding of basketball, his ability to force contact for fouls, his ability to finish with contact, his ability to take over games. Dion also does not appear to be as much of a competitor as Dwayne Wade. The comparison’s need to stop because Dion will never achieve them, or… Read more »
“Dion Waiters “inside” shots: eFG (that’s EFFECTIVE, not even just FG%): 37%. That is putrid.”
This stat probably takes thousands of samples before it converges. I doubt 1 full season would be enough to make it meaningful.
“Advanced” stats in sports are fun but they are almost always useless due to a lack of appropriate samples. Everyone on FTS has this problem as well.
dion has star potential. no need to worry guys. he’s a rookie playing 30+ a night. what do you expect
Thorpe hates Dion Waiters, that is obvious. I think Cavs fan on here need to relax and be happy with what he’s doing at this point. Already 1 month into the season and we’re asking him to now run the offense, be the only pure scorer on the 1st unit and then somehow he has a lot of his fans up his ass, bc he takes some bad shots? C’mon give the dude a break and let him develop. While Thorpe and for some reason a lot of you guys hate him?? I’ll sit back and rejoice at these growing… Read more »
TP my friend, Id bet that if you had to dribble/gather/shoot at the speed it takes get a shot off against an NBA defender off the dribble, absorbing tough, professional-level, COMPLETELY UNOFFICIATED contact along the way…you would miss most of your layup attempts even if the defender didn’t contest the actual shot.
From what I’ve seen, Waiters has the girth, athleticism, and creativity to make an above average percentage of shots at the rim in the future, and I would bet my 401K on that.
Tyrus Thomas. Yucky.
But don’t let my contrarian attitude take away from the fact that I 1) think he’s getting rookie hazing from refs and 2) think Thorpes former love affair of another TT is something to consider when reading Thorpe. (Tyrus Thomas)
T – I make uncontested layups.
Missed foul calls are directly responsible for low shooting %. Forget the numbers…watch the games. Show me on instance…just one…where the dude blows a uncontested, or lightly contested shot at the rim ala Boobie or Ramon Sessions who probably led the league in layups that hit the underside of the glass. His shot selection and finishing ability will drastically improve once he gets his proper calls, and Thorpe, whos love affair with TT invalidates his opinon totally, will again look stupid for doubting a guy who has been stellar in all but one area.
Jeez.
Demetrius – yeah i was very hesitant to make the comparison until BYRON SCOTT DID IT! (craziness…)
Yeah I loved Richmond so that wouldn’t be so bad. I’m not convinced THREEion is going to continue at .372. I mean if it does WOW. But I just don’t think he’s a 3 point sniper.
Yeah Tom, we’re in full agreement that something has to be done about his finishing. I doubt we see anything more than incremental progress this season because that’s just typically not how NBA players work. They get a base of attempts in then use the summer to recalibrate. If he’s a notch or two below those elite finishers and a superior shooter then that’s a strong 4th pick in my eyes. I almost wish the Wade comparison had never come up. I think Dion might need to drop weight or recondition his body because his HS tapes show off a… Read more »