Hoping the Roulette Wheel Stops on #19
2013-05-12
An athletic big with a history of strong production, but attitude issues? Take him at #19 and see if a glimpse of D-League life brings him to his full potential.
All credit for stats and much information goes to draftexpress.com, statsheet.com and eurobasket.com; three unique and awesome websites. Certainly I worked in an original opinion somewhere though.
Regarding the first round of the 2013 draft, I still think the Cavs benefit best by bringing aboard one player to the active roster next year. Kyrie, Tristan, Dion, 2013 lottery pick, and Zeller need to be surrounded by veteran talent: players to share lessons learned, teach them how to be pros, etc. Based on that thought, the nineteenth pick would be traded, Euro-stashed, or invested in a young player destined for a year of D-League time.
The latter scenarios present interesting opportunities to swing for the fences. The Cavaliers employ the aforementioned crew of youngsters, plus possess a multitude of future draft picks to acquire role players. Why not shoot for the moon with this year’s other first-rounder?
Here are some options.
Tony Mitchell – Over the last two seasons, I have been fairly practical about my pre-draft evaluating. This year, at #19, I say roll the dice; this North Texas sophomore fits that bill. Ranked 18th in the high school class of 2011, he resided above 2012 lottery picks Dion Waiters, Terrence Ross, Meyers Leonard, and Kendall Marshall. As an athletic, long combo-forward, after originally enrolling at Missouri he missed a season due to academic issues. Heading to North Texas, he flashed his impressive skills for one year, before mightily regressing this season, as his squad quit on their new coach. Certainly as the star player, the enigmatic Mitchell carries much blame for the team’s lackluster 13 – 18 record. Currently sitting 21st at draftexpress and 30th at ESPN, check out these per-game averages:
- Freshman – 29 minutes, 15 points, 10 rebounds, 3 blocks, 1.6 assists on 57 / 44/ 74 shooting. His PER registered at thirty.
- Sophomore – 32 minutes, 13 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.7 blocks, 0.8 assists on 44 / 30 / 68. His PER precipitously dove to twenty-one.
Can one year relegated to the D-League kick him in the butt and help him locate his ceiling? I would be willing to take that chance.
Giannis Adetokunbo – The 6’ – 9” Greek / Nigerian garners a look in the mid-to-late first round. Playing weak competition in the second-level Greek League, he averaged 22 minutes, 9.5 points, 5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 turnovers and 1 block on 46 / 31/ 72 shooting. His team lost in the championship, missing an opportunity to ascend to the Greek first division; Adetokunbo posted a disappointing 4 points, but supplemented it with 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks. His primary strengths include great length with smooth athleticism; relatively skilled, he frequently ran the team’s offense. Considering his age (basically a high school senior, he started last season at 17 years old) and size, his nearly 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio serves as a credit to his unique skill-set. Next season, he begins a four-year contract with Zaragoza in Spain’s first division, the world’s second-best national basketball league*, reportedly with attainable annual opt-outs (via draftexpress). Given his age, size, athleticism, burgeoning skill set, and chance to nurture in the Spanish ACB for a couple of years, he may be one of the few opportunities to snag a true difference-maker with the nineteenth pick.
Lucas Nogueira – A Brazilian Center with a 7’ – 5” wingspan, his early years were plagued by immaturity and lack of work ethic. Rumor says he improved in these regards, and his production appears to support that. Not turning 21 until July, Nogueira posted a 24.6 PER in over 400 minutes in the ACB this year, blocking nearly three shots per thirty-six minutes and converting 66% of his field goals as an effective pick-and-roll slasher and offensive rebounder. His contract in the ACB runs for one more year, and pairing him with a fellow Brazilian in 2014 – 2015 (Andy, for those not thinking very hard), could serve as a great springboard to rein in this youngster’s elite combination of size and athleticism.
There you have it. Three guys likely to be available at #19, with elite ceilings…of course, they also have floors of solid EuroLeague starter. This is the type of player I think should be targeted at #19 though.
* Apparently, Giannis has passport issues that impacted his ability to travel to the Nike Hoops Summit and could impact his ability to play in the Spanish ACB. This has to get resolved though, right? He can’t be forced to stay in Greece for the rest of his life, right?
Fitz, A player taken around 19 is barely a 1 million hit on the cap, and 2nd rounders aren’t gauranteed anything. Drafting a player at 19 and two in the second round, even ones who won’t be overseas, does next to nothing to our cap/roster flexibility. And I’d rather have a player develop against the best competition in the world, no qualifier, than against the best non-nba competition. Either player will still be very cheap by the time we push the cap and try to contend (2014-15 at latest), but one will be a veteran who know the system, teammates’… Read more »
I disagree Corey. In this resoundly criticized draft (which according to all scout/GM reports I’ve read generally is incredibly poor) with 4 picks for an already-incredibly-young team, I think the Cavs have to take a shot on someone overseas who could reach a high ceiling (the Giannis, Jaiteh, Jean-Charles types) over 3 potentially useful, but more limited players (i.e. DeShaun, Crabbe types). To think about it another way, if we were to select 4 non-stashable players in this year’s draft this year, then we have 10 roster spots taken already (KI, AV, TT, TZ, DW, Gee, 4 draftees) – and… Read more »
Kevin, yes it can! We could always add some over the hill luke walton type, or some other old terrible player! Also, no one says we have to play a #19 pick more than 5-10 minutes per game, we can use that pick on the best player available and still sign a vet. If that player is so good it would be a crime to only play him 5-10 minutes, then I think that is a pretty good turn of events, wouldn’t you say? Either way, I’m still not ready to jeopardize the future for the playoffs this year. I… Read more »
We don’t need to be swinging for the fences with any picks. We need to just start stacking talent and get players who have value. A rarity in the last 5 seasons.
Kevin, I’m not sure that swinging for the fences with #19 is the best move. This team isn’t so talent-laden that they can be frivolous with picks. The Cavs have two very large holes that won’t be filled be anyone currently on the roster. Obviously the top pick is meant to fill one of them. However, are we saying that there won’t be anyone available at 19 that can help the team immediately? That seems unlikely. Have you considered that their first pick could be a bust? If so, then what? You have nothing to show for your top pick,… Read more »
If Glen Rice Jr.’s name wasn’t “Glen Rice Jr.” no one would be talking about him at all.
Kevin- “It sounds like Mitchell didn’t try very hard this year” Precisely my point. Sure, you have a nice built-in excuse if the whole team quit on a coach they didn’t like. But that doesn’t exactly scream “winner” to me. People with a competitive drive to win try to succeed no matter what the circumstances. And even so….Mitchell KNEW he was being looked at for the pros, with a weak draft coming up….why wouldn’t he give it his all to improve his draft status? If he couldn’t drive himself to “try hard” for guaranteed money in the next draft….why do… Read more »
Kevin– First, these aren’t your typical 19-21 year olds. They are emotionally/maturely 19 but they’ve been in regimens and teams all their lives. Most of these guys have 0 problems working and existing in a team dynamic. (this is of course not taking into account your maturity outliers, your Ricky Davis/AI/JR Smith types. The closest thing we may have to that is Dion who two times over has responded to hard coaching by altering his behavior/shot selection and attitude. That’s a good sign.) So I don’t get how your point means anything other than basic cliche. What team of young… Read more »
Demetrious, Based on basketball-reference’s age classifying (age as of February 1st birthday), next season is Kyrie’s age 21 season; Dion and Tristan’s age 22; Otto Porter’s age 20; Alex Len’s age 20; etc. None of the Rocket’s top-seven in minutes were younger than their age-23 season. None of the Nuggets top-nine were younger than their age-23 season. Three of Golden State’s top-ten were, but only Barnes was younger than age-22. The Cavs are really young; adding some age / experience can’t hurt a playoff push for next year. I guess we disagree. Also, if this year’s #19 doesn’t work out,… Read more »
RiBoise, I’m not sure Grant is contrarian as much as he is advanced analysis/metrics driven. For instance, if memory serves, Hollinger’s draft rater had Tristan as the second best prospect, and the best big in that draft. Moreover, Windy’s piece on the Waiters selection showed it was partly the projection of Waiters’ pick and roll ability which drove the pick. In both Thompson and Waiters’ cases, it seems as though Grant was just focused on things that many in the mainstream weren’t (and in Waiters case was more than likely also due to the decision to not work out for… Read more »
D League stats are as useful as a car without keys.
Kevin, just seeing stats like that from people who have played in the NBA like Harongody and Jones makes me weary of any sort of stats coming out of the D-League. Maybe that is the definition of someone who is a fringe NBA player. They just dominate in the D-League and come out and turn into 5 and 3 type guys? I think that is a measure of how far the talent drop off is from the NBA to the D-League. I mean, even if you look at finesse, or skill type players the ones in the NBA are still… Read more »
Grant seems prone to a contrarian strategy – why not ADD picks & stash them?
If we get Porter then we can get a Karasev or Saric to stash. Chad Ford is weird, I know, but he thinks Noguera ends up in Round 2, another nice stash, I admit to be intrigued by Muscala (a C with a jump shot) Snag anothher late 1st/2nd and stash a 3rd?
How hard is it to stash an American player in Europe? Anyone know the rules?
Well, Rice’s numbers went up as he went into the playoffs, where arguably, the talent level increases. And unlike both Jones and Harongidy, Rice appears to have elite athleticism.
Rice makes me wary. Is he talented? At the very least in the D-League sense. But then again Kevin Jones averaged 25 and 12 in the D-League. Did he walk the line and produce for 3 months this year? Yes, but only when he knew he was under the microscope and working to be drafted. What happens when he gets paid? I’m not sure Rice is any safer than a Euro stash prospect (i.e. Giannis). Then again that’s the intrigue in this draft. There are a ton of flawed prospects, who only do one thing well or have a high… Read more »
Fitz,
Harangody is a career 20 & 12 D-League guy, too.
Kevin, Rice would have been a junior at Ga Tech this year, correct? It doesn’t sound so crazy to me that it falls in place for a talented kid right now. Again, he has arguably played against the toughest competition of any draft eligible player. Furthermore, his dad clearly could or has made him aware of what pro basketball is like. That is a bonus.
Kj,
Rice would have been a senior.
I like that Rice kid honestly, seems like he’s cleaned up his act after getting the boot from college. I mean he is an option at #19 if he starts problems just cut him oh well.
@Kevin. Nicely put about Giannis. Is he a scratch off ticket? Sure. I can live with the 19th pick in not a spectacular draft not being a superstar. It’s still a throw in from a trade two years ago of a guy who was leaving anyway. I’m actually surprised it was lottery protected at all.
Nate, that is good info, thanks. Good reminder that I shouldn’t assume things. It does seem like Saric and Vesely are very different players, but he isn’t really my top choice.
The argument against Rice is silly. The guy arguably has played against the toughest competition possible for a draft eligible player. And it’s more than just his playoff run, Kevin. He got better and better as the season went on. He has skills and athleticism. Again, he is AT LEAST Matt Barnes. Furthermore, don’t understand giving a pass on Mitchell’s troubles and bring scared off by Rice’s. Sure, Rice’s transgressions were arguably worse but he as already shown maturity and growth by turning himself into a first-round pick after being a nobody. Mitchell has played against crap competition and proven… Read more »
Kevin– We’re mostly in agreement I just get really wary of that “veteran leadership” sentiment. Also you’ll note that I didn’t put ages in my comment but grouped people under “rookie contract.” The Pacers players referenced were all older coming in. They’re an “older” team but not in nba experience. I value that more than age years when making these comparisons. Roy came into his own in yr 4 in the league. PG is in yr 3. Their NBA development curves are pretty standard with the years served. If the Cavs are a contending low seed in 2014-15 then the… Read more »
Demtrius, I have never been in an NBA locker room, but my inclination is to value “age” experience. Were you more mature and focused at 21 or 26? Do you not think it’s different for these guys? The Cavs aren’t trying to start a fraternity; they’re trying to win games in the NBA. I definitely think it help the team’s chances next year. Kj, Rice is an interesting story. 89th ranked in his high school class; never did anything particularly noteworthy on the court at G-Tech…he didn’t even have a draftexpress profile until two weeks ago. Now he’s a mid-first… Read more »
I think the older players inevitably know more about team offense and defense.
Jan Vesely rookie year in Adriatic when he was 17-18: 10.7 minutes 4.5 points 1.6 rebounds .55/.375/.667. His sophomore year 18-19. 16.5 minutes 4.8 points 3.2 rebounds .517/.150/67.4. His junior year 22 min 8.4 points 4.9 boards .57/.325/.645.
Dario Saric rookie year in Adriatic: 18-19. 23.5 minutes 7.7 points 6.1 rebounds .368/.303/.500. Fairly comparable…
Corrections; Pendergraph is on a league minimum deal coming off a rookie deal. Even better
“need to be surrounded by veteran talent: players to share lessons learned, teach them how to be pros, etc.” That is a really flawed concept. Young talent on rookie deals are the BEST kinds of contracts you can have. You never want to do anything but swing for the fences and fully integrate those types of assets into a team. The only superior asset than a rotation player on a rookie deal is a superstar. Case in point; There is one veteran leader on the Pacers. David West. Hibbert is just off his rookie deal, PG, Lance, Hansborough, Pendergraph are… Read more »
Also, I’ve been getting the feeling that the Cavs are more interested in Oladipo than they are in Porter. His motor and defensive intensity seems to fit more with what they have been trying to build. I see a smaller version of Luol Deng there…I don’t think playing him at SF is too much of a stretch. They also don’t seem to have a problem with undersized guys, and the whole “they have Porter as the #2 guy on their board” just strikes me as a smokescreen. I remember they were reportedly super high on Harrison Barnes and took Waiters… Read more »
Am I the only one who doesn’t want to take some Euro prospect? I would rather take a guy with some question marks who has actually played against NBA-caliber competition like Rice Jr, or a college prospect like Jamaal Franklin with the Lakers pick.
Too often these Euros either don’t pan out (Vesely, etc) or never come over (Sasha Kaun, Nikola Mirotic, etc) – too many question marks…we need guys that can contribute now – Grant definitely needs it, considering that his job security doesn’t seem quite so rock solid after Scott’s firing.
I’d swing on Mitchell if he’s still there in the second round (and we keep one of those picks). Not at #19. Sorry….if you’re a top-10 talent and can’t carry a lower tier school to at least a .500 record (Doug McDermott….Damian Lillard….etc.), no thanks.
At #19 I’d love a Eurostash option. I’m highest on Gobert & Karasev, or Saric if he slides. If none of them….I like Steve Adams, but don’t think sitting on the bench for three years waiting for him to mature is very appealing based on where the Cavs are at this point.
grover13, Regarding Mitchell, it sounds like North Texas didn’t try very hard this year…every man for himself, no defense. It’s a gamble, but the hope is that he resumes the high expectations of his high school / freshman season. Demetrius, The Pacers were an “old” young team. In 2011 – 2012, they had West and Danny Granger. Hibbert was 25, Hansborough was 26. Jeff Foster was still around. Dahntay Jones was 31. If you look at their top ten in minutes, only Paul George was younger than 24. This season, of their top ten in minutes, only George and Stephenson… Read more »
Demetrius,
As I read your comment again, it seems like we are arguing for the same thing: “swing high with that pick”. Your comment makes it sound like we are coming from different planets in that regard.
Also, another reason to like Adams over Nogueria is that he has an NBA body already. I’m seeing Nogueria comps being “a slightly taller Bismack Biyombo that needs to add 20 lbs” but also hearing that the only reason Adams entered the draft was that he probably got a first round promise from a late lottery team.
I don’t think Nogueria is gone by pick 19. There are a decent amount of centers… Noel and Len are obvious, but Zeller, Olynyk, Dieng, Adams, and Withey are all guys that teams will consider before him since they can come play immediately. And playing against NCAA competition seems to give better data on how they should fare in the NBA. I’d actually prefer Adams over Nogueria. He seems to be very similar (athletic defensive presence, needs work on offense) except he lacks the history of immaturity. If anyone remembers, Adams came in ranked something like 3rd on chad ford’s… Read more »
Nate, I believe Vesely was a few years older than Saric when he was in the Adriatic league
Oh, just adding my two cents, Kevin, not questioning your methodology. Those were well reasoned choices. My take on Nogueria is that he’s been on teams’ radar for a while now. He was hot for a year, then cold for a year, and now he’s hot again. I think name recognition will help him a lot. They’ll all say, “Hey, there’s that kid from Brazil. Remember how good he looked a few years ago?”
Nate,
I was just contributing my two cents back. Many teams picking before nineteen are probably looking for a player that isn’t 1 – 3 years away. Certainly Atlanta may diverge from that at 17 or 18, but I think everyone else definitely finds someone other than Nogueira or Adetokunbo.
Currently, I am most intrigued by Mitchell though.
Lucas Nogueria will be gone by 19, I’m betting. NBAdraft.net has him going #18 to Atlanta. Of course draftexpress doesn’t even have him in the first round. If you’re choosing between Dario Saric, Mason Plumlee, and Nogueria at 15-18, don’t you go with the one with the highest upside? There will be 20 Mason Plumlees in the second round. Giannis Adetokunbo will be gone then too for the same reasons. Everyone wants the next Serge Ibaka. Only marginally related, but. Dario Saric, btw: awful. .39/.30/.50 shooting splits in the Adriatic league. You’re going to waste a draft pick on a… Read more »
Nate,
I picked players that were below 19 on both draftexpress and espn. Those are my go-to sites.
I agree on Saric. He is young, and I like him more than Vesely, but I like the three guys in this article more than him.
I would love to see the Cavs swing for the fences in this draft. In fact, I expect it to happen, given the number of picks that I doubt we can move out of. I’ve seen people call for the Cavs to trade their lower picks (whether as a package for a vet or to move up in the draft). I just don’t see this happening. This draft is widely regarded as the worst draft in more than a decade, if not ever. No one is taking the 19th pick and Tyler Zeller for an established NBA player, unless that… Read more »
Fitz,
I would co-sign on LJC at #31 or #33.
Excellent article, I think the choice should be the big brazilian, Lucas Nogueria so you can stash him for a year just like Toronto did with Jonas Valanciunas. Then you could use your two second round picks and sent them immediately to your farm team, the Canton Charge and start developing a farm system similar to baseball or trade up if you have a chance and take another stash away pick. Doing this won’t push Grant into having to rely on a rookie big to produce immediately this year with the team being pressured into making the playoffs. Adding a… Read more »
Contrary to most, I expect Grant to draft three players this year. I respect Grant’s due diligence too much. There is bound to be a player that Grant is high on that will fall to the second round, where the Cavs are perfectly positioned. The 19th pick(or higher if Grant decides to use one or more of his accumulated assets) seems destined to be for a high upside center. And I am sure that Grant has a couple in mind. Finally, I expect a reasonably high profile FA to be signed to man the PF/SF position. Speights will be gone… Read more »
Well, as I said before Rice Jr. would be a home run at 19 but I fear he is climbing draft boards as we speak. I would be doing back-flips if Karasev were still there at 19. You could make the case that he is the most League-ready Euro in the draft.
Giannis is AT LEAST two years away from even being a possible NBA player. I pass on him. Mitchell is very intriguing…
Kj, I like Karasev, and if he was available at 19, I would definitely not mind the Cavs picking him. I’m really not interested in two more 20-year old rotation players next year though. I am on-the-fence about Rice. He was never particularly effective at Georgia Tech. Plus he was suspended / kicked-off the team three times. Is this like when a player has a great NBA playoff run and then gets overpaid in free agency? Adetokunbo will be 20 in two years. He was basically a high school senior this year. I’m not saying it’s not a gamble, but… Read more »
I looked up the spelling of Karasev’s name on my phone but maybe I took too long to hit submit on the comment. Love the idea of a Eurostash. Add vets now. See how 2014 plays out. If the player does develop he will come over in a couple years to hopefully a playoff team and be on his very affordable rookie contact. It makes sense financially as well. Kyrie and Tristan will eligible for their extensions in 2015-16. Kyrie will probably get the max. It’s possible Thompson is given his qualifying offer to let him get to restricted free… Read more »
How does this comment monster work? Just curious. How do you save comments from the monster.
Also wondering what insurance company covers NBA player insurance. I know that they cover 150 players a year (5 from each team) and can exclude 14 players from coverage and all that jazz but I wrote a blog that brings it up and couldn’t find the actual provider anywhere.
Cory Hughey, Yeah, I was assuming Gobert would be gone. Actually, I may prefer these players ceilings to him anyways. I like Jamaal Franklin as a Tony Allen-ish ceiling…it’s like we’re scouting from the same playbook. Regarding the comment monster, it is a mysterious beast. Did you start writing, then open up a new browser to research something you were commenting about? Back in the day, I know the monster hated when I did this. I think all of the writers at C:tB try to vanquish the monster every time he attempts to seize a good comment. Alas, resilient he… Read more »
I’m on the Mitchell band-wagon. Also wouldn’t be upset with Steven Adams or Rudy Gobert (not sure where Gobert is projected, I know Adams is around that 19th pick or later).
I’ve been all for Grant swinging for the fences since the draft pick swap became a reality. It’s free money. It’s finding your CoUNTry girl ex-girlfriends iphone 5 in your couch. Take as sure of a thing as you can with your top pick and make 19 a potential grand slam. It’s a thrown that never seemed like it would be more than a selection or two move up from Miami’s selection. I love the list you gave. I’d throw Rudy Gobert (doubt he makes it to 19), Jamal Franklin and Sergey Karasev in there too. There’s tons of possibilities… Read more »