Cavs: The Blog: The Mock Draft: The Version 1.0: The Picks 1 Through 15
2013-06-20
Welcome to the 2013 Cavs: The Blog NBA: The Mock Draft.
A brief run-down of the rules: Members of CtB’s staff are chosen at “random” to represent each of the 30 NBA teams. After each selection is made and justified, the process is hot-potatoed over to the next writer until all the picks have been made. Today, we’ll be doing picks one through 15. Tomorrow, we’ll finish off the first round.
Now, buckle up. This year’s draft promises to be the mockiest yet!
1.) Cleveland Cavaliers (Robert Attenweiler): Alex Len, 7’1”, Maryland, C. The idea that the Cavs could actually go with Len at the top has been gaining some traction recently. So, while I wouldn’t put hearing Len’s name with this pick on the level of “everyone in Cleveland lights themselves on fire after,” it would still be a shock. Len is not the flashiest number one pick, but he’s probably not the Michael Olowokandi-est either. Barring further complications with his ankle (and Cavs fans should know better than to assume anything having to do with tall Eastern Europeans and feet), Len has the potential to be the best player in this draft. He’s big, long, already pretty strong, very agile for his size and has a nascent offensive game that, let’s face it, Noel just doesn’t have. Len doesn’t have that one eye-popping skill that gets the imagination humming, but he might just be a very good basketball player — and we all know how Chris Grant feels about basketball players.
2.) Orlando Magic (Tom Pestak): Ben McLemore, 6’5″, Kansas, SG. While no one has the foggiest idea how to rank the best players available, the Magic have some fairly obvious needs, so I expect them to draft a guard that can shoot. After J.J. Redick departed, the Magic ranked dead last in TS%. That leaves McLemore and Trey Burke. The Magic are rumored to be interested in Eric Bledsoe, but the deals I’ve seen tossed around are laughable (note: Bledsoe is a stud and we will all realize this in a year or two). So assuming that doesn’t happen, the Magic will have to make a decision here. Jameer Nelson and Beno Udrih are serviceable but on the wrong side of 30 and Aaron Afflalo is overrated and limited. The question for the Magic is whether to go for a better version of Afflalo in McLemore, or an exciting point guard prospect in Burke. McLemore has the more in-demand pro skill set with Wade-like athleticism and very solid catch-and-shoot percentages from deep.
3.) Washington Wizards (Nate Smith): Nerlens Noel, 7’0″, Kentucky, C. Ernie Grunfeld has a mini panic attack when he realizes the three best players in the draft are still on the board. He desperately fights the urge to sign or trade for a horrible contract. The pressure is too much. Grunfeld needs a fix. “Call everyone!” he yells to his staff. “There’s got to be a way to turn this pick into a Gilbert AreNene OkafAriza contract! Don’t you realize that after 2014, we’ll only have one horrible contract on our books?!”
“Ern,” Randy Whitman, says calmly. “Jan Vesely is eligible for an extension then.” Endorphins rush. Anxiety abates. The sweet release of Ted Leonsis’ poorly spent money courses through Grunfeld’s veins, and it feels good.
“Take the kid from Kentucky,” he exhales, “He’ll make us a defensive force… and if worst comes to worst, I can always overpay him after a couple more knee surgeries.”
“It’s destiny,” says Whitman as he picks up the phone.
4). Charlotte Bobcats (Kevin Hetrick): Anthony Bennett, 6’7″, UNLV, PF – The perfect player to combine with Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Bismack Biyombo? Of course, it’s a floor spacing four whose defensive deficiencies can hopefully be masked by MKG and their rangy center. Bennett may make more sense for Charlotte than any other player in the draft.
5.) Phoenix Suns (Mallory Factor): Victor Oladipo, 6’4″, Indiana, SG – The obvious choice would’ve been Otto Porter, but really Phoenix already has a 3-and-D master in Jared Dudley. That, coupled with the fact that Phoenix is seriously lacking in star power, makes Oladipo the right move. While he’s pretty raw on the offensive end right now, Oladipo’s explosiveness gives him a ceiling few others in the draft have. And for the time being, he’s certain to be a great defender.
6.) New Orleans Pelicans (Colin McGowan): Otto Porter, 6’9″, Georgetown, SG – It’s hard to imagine Otto Porter being bad. (Did I really just say that about the sixth pick in the draft? Jeez.) He’s rangy and can do a little bit of everything: he’s a good passer, a good shooter, a good defender. I just wish he did one thing exceptionally. Calling cards–Noel’s shot-blocking ability, McLemore’s shooting touch–are reassuring because they give you some idea of what role a prospect will assume when he gets to the NBA. But the Pelicans are thin at nearly every position, and I think they’d be thrilled to get a unique, multi-talented player like Porter at six. Plus he and Anthony Davis can talk about what it’s like to be able to touch your toes without bending over, so there’s that.
7.) Sacramento Kings (Colin McGowan): Michael Carter-Williams, 6’6″, Syracuse, PG – I just had a back-and-forth with Nate about this pick. We’re trying to figure out mid-draft if we’re making predictions or the selections we think each team should make. I have no idea who the Kings like, and Trey Burke—probably a safer bet to be good—is still on the board, but Michael Carter-Williams is what Sacramento needs: a big guard who likes to pass. Along with about ten other prospects, there’s a possibility he might end up as the best player in this draft. This is the part where I’d normally say “Now watch the Kings take Shabazz” but the new ownership and staff in the River City seem like a progressive bunch. Let’s hope, for the sake of a beleaguered and resilient fanbase, that they make the right decision.
8.) Detroit Pistons (Kevin Hetrick): Trey Burke, 5’11”, Michigan, PG – You guys keep leaving me no choice but to steal my picks straight from Chad Ford’s latest mock draft. At this point, Burke is definitely the highest rated prospect left on my board. Brandon Knight is looking like he won’t develop into a prototypical point guard. Burke, Knight, and a big shooting guard to be found later can form a strong three guard rotation, and the backcourt foundation for a scary Central Division rival.
9.) Minnesota Timberwolves (Nate Smith): Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, 6’6″, Georgia, SG – Ugh. And this is where the second tier starts. Supposedly, the Wolves love KCP, and the Pistons and Kings may have just done them a favor by taking point guards, but two weeks ago KCP was a mid 20s pick. That’s how nuts this draft is. Is this guy destined to suck or get hurt cause the ‘Wolves are taking him, or is the Wrath of Kahn finally over? Actually, I’m falling in love with KCP as we speak: a speedy, agile pickpocket of a shooter, who has the makings of a solid wing who can play two positions… Can the Cavs trade back to the Wolves? (And no, not for Uncle Drew’s old buddy, Wes, Mallory).
10.) Portland Trail Blazers (Tom Pestak): C.J. McCollum, 6’3″, Lehigh, G – The Canton native can really fill it up and he converted at a blistering 63% TS last season. The biggest knocks on him are a lack of explosiveness, his age, and poor pure-point skills.I think GMs may have cooled on “elite first step” being a requisite for scoring guards: see Irving and Curry for recent examples. McCollum is smart, crafty, and for all the talk about his middling athleticism he: 1. Rebounds well, 2. Draws a healthy amount of fouls, and 3. Loves to score in transition. Why should the Blazers be interested? They’ve had pretty good experience with the last “old” prospect from a small school, and McCollum rebounds pretty well for a guy his size so he could be used as a combo guard along with Lilliard. The other position the Blazers need is C and there will be options here for that as well.
11.) Philadelphia 76ers (Robert Attenweiler): Cody Zeller, 7’0″, Indiana, PF/C – Cavs fans are well versed in the promise and punishment that happens aboard the Zeller Family Bandwagon, but linking any potential frustration at watching Cody too closely to “needs to hit the weight room” Tyler is unfair. Cody projects as a rich man’s Troy Murphy or Chris Bosh 0.05 which isn’t all that terrible. He should be able to rebound and be a legit pick and pop threat from day one, though his game will likely suffer the closer he plays to the basket. At the combine, his vertical and agility tested through the roof. He’ll be what Spencer Hawes has occasionally flashed, but never consistently delivered, for the Sixers. Perfect PF to put beside franchise cornerstone Andrew Bynum. Wait… what’s that? Oh… (awkward silence) Hey, Zeller’s a fine pick-up, guys.
12.) Oklahoma City Thunder (Robert Attenweiler): Kelly Olynyk, 7’0″, Gonzaga, C – Remember when watching the Thunder’s offense, as great as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are, was like watching a game of 5-on-4 (I was going to say 5-on-3.5 but, Serge, you’ve come along at least that far) whenever Kendrick Perkins was on the floor. As much as the Thunder needed Perk’s size, defense and rebounding when they traded for him, they now need to be able to squeeze a little offense out of the five spot every now and again without sacrificing size. Olynyk already has a polished offensive repertoire, which is basically the knock against every other big man in this draft. While he’s not going to overpower anyone at this stage of his career (if any), having the versatility to play Olynyk with Nick Collison and/or Ibaka should help the Thunder be less predictable in the half-court. In fact, a more finesse based Collison or less morbidly obese Boris Diaw is probably what we’re looking at in projecting Olynyk.
13.) Dallas Mavericks (Tom Pestak): Shabazz Muhammad, 6’6″, UCLA, SF – The Mavericks ranked 26th in the NBA in free throw rate, 27th in opponent free throw rate, 28th in offensive rebound rate, and 28th in total rebound rate. Enter Shabazz Muhammad – the second best offensive rebounding wing behind Oladipo. Muhammad is an enigma – he is described as having a killer instinct yet he almost never scores in isolation. He prefers scores off the ball, coming around curls, and leaking out in transition. This all fits well with a Dirk-centric half-court offense in Dallas. He also draws a healthy number of free throws which the Mavs desperately lack. Finally, his deficiencies, mainly awful court vision for a wing, might not affect the Mavericks as much as some other teams – they ranked 3rd in assist to turnover ratio and in the better half of the league in assist rate and offensive rating. The Mavericks want to trade this pick, but if they keep it I think they go for a high risk / high reward guy in Muhammad.
14.) Utah Jazz (Nate Smith) Steven Adams, 7’0″ Pitt, C – What a dilemma! It’s no secret that the Jazz need a point guard, and are loaded at the 4 and 5 spot with Enes Kanter and Derrrick Favors, plus free agents Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. The popular choice has been Shane Larkin, but if Steven Adams is there at 14, there’s no way the Jazz pass on him. He’s got an NBA body at center, showed high skill level at the combine, and is generally considered one of the more promising big man prospects in the draft. Additionally, Adams is a marketing dream for a Salt Lake City based team that has a large Polynesian community. If Adams falls here, Dennis Lindsey won’t be able to get to the phone fast enough. They’ll let big Al and Paul Millsap walk, and find a point guard 7 picks later.
15.) Milwaukee Bucks (Kevin Hetrick) Shane Larkin, 5’11”, University of Miami, PG – These are the players that Milwaukee has guaranteed contracts with next year: Ersan Ilyasova, Drew Gooden, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Ekpe Udoh, Larry Sanders, John Henson, Gustavo Ayon and Ishmael Smith. How did they pull that off? Seven of those guys are PF’s, SF / PF, or PF / C. What are they doing? Anyways, with Monta Ellis opting out and Brandon Jennings not sounding content for the long term, they need a guard. And more offense. Or to find trade partners in need of forwards. But for now, let’s draft a guard. I’m a big Shane Larkin fan, so let’s go with him (and holy crap, all three of my picks match Chad Ford’s mock draft 5.0. Colin will probably replace me with Google soon.)
Come back next week, for selections 16 through 33.
@Corey – I think a more accurate analogy is the following: you already have an amazing cheesecake at home, and you go to the store and there are 3 additional desserts of equal quality (one of which is another cheesecake), but all not quite as tasty as that cheesecake at home. Buying a second cheesecake of lower quality makes no sense. Roll with the bananas foster. Or the apple pie. Obviously, if McLemore was hands down the best player, then your analogy makes some sense. But I don’t know anyone who thinks that. Most people think each player has weaknesses… Read more »
If you are planing on making banana’s foster for your special lady friend and the grocery store only has rotten bananas-you make something else. You don’t just buy the rotten bananas because you needed them. If Grant thinks that McLemore or Olapido is the best player in the draft that’s fine. You can always trade a talented player later. A big fish deal will go down in the next year. Harden didn’t get moved at the draft. Neither did Howard. You have to be patient. @Underdog I totally agree that whoever the Cavs draft Thursday it won’t dictate if they… Read more »
@ Hot Sauce
I agree with that, I’m very against picking McLemore. He would pigeon hole us into a small ball guard/SF rotation and I don’t like that. Come playoff time, I don’t want to be at a constant height disadvantage for a 7 game series.
Regardless of who we take at #1, we need to pull the trigger on the #13 pick, and we better not give up #19 to do it.
#1 – Noel/Len
#13 – Karasev/Muhammad
#19 – BPA
Noel + Karasev/Muhammad would be fun. I prefer Karasev since he has the height to play SF (although he’ll need to bulk up some). Muhammad might be decent coming off the bench for immediate scoring, ala J.R. Smith circa Denver days. I expect nothing more than scoring from Muhammad in his NBA career, though.
The challenge with the OKC comparison is that KD is 6′ 9”. Mclemore, KI, and DW are 6′ 4” and under. That is a small team. Also, we need to remember that last year’s draft was much better than this year’s. Dion is a BETTER prospect that McLemore (there is no comparison between the two in terms of their ability to create, run the pick and roll, control the game, get to the rim, etc. McLemore’s only advantage is shooting technique). If DW was in this year’s draft, he would be ahead of McLemore, IMO. How does it make sense… Read more »
Any one else like the thought of trading down to #2,3 and snagging McLemore and go all OKC by trying to develop Kyrie, Dion, and McLemore a la Durant, Westbrook, and Harden? After reading this article on Grantland http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/66076/nba-job-interview-ben-mclemore-with-scouting-report I am starting to turn around to this idea. If Noel or Len were as solid as prospects as Anthony Davis was this wouldn’t even be a question, but I’m not sold on either of them or any of the big men in this draft. I would rather see the Cavs trade down and grab a big man later in the… Read more »
I see Noel’s offensive floor as being similar to Roy Hibbert. It will take a couple of years to get there. But notice I said floor. Defensively, Noel should exceed Hibbert and he should eventually become a dominant force in the paint for a decade. The Cavs will control the perimeter and the paint at that point. For those who want to bring up Gilbert’s comments about making the playoffs this year: If the Cavs are to make it to the playoffs this year it is because they get a strong year out of Varejao, sign a veteran free agent,… Read more »
Noel certainly did dominate defensively. And his team’s performance dropped significantly after he was hurt.
And concerning being outperformed by Len when going against him last year, I believe it was the freshman’s very first college game after getting started at Kentucky late in their “training camp” process. Still grabbed a lot of rebounds.
Underdog to be fair, Noel’s team didn’t dominate, he didn’t either, and his team was looking like it was gonna miss the tournament even before he went down with the injury.
I think Noel’s offensive floor is Roy Hibbert. (But it will take a few years, as it did for Hibbert . . . and notice I said “floor.”) Defensively, he’ll end up being even better than Hibbert. Not a bad addition in a weak draft. How well do you think the Cavs would do if they added Hibbert? They’d own the perimeter and the paint. For those who bring up Gilbert’s comments about making the playoffs this year . . . a rookie would only play a minimum role in attaining that. A strong year from Varejao, a veteran free… Read more »
Liked Uli Kunkel’s tandem pick considerations so I’ll bring them to the top again:
“the eastern euros (Len and Karasev), the big names (Nerlens and Shabazz), the nice fit guys (Porter and Olynyk), or the defenders (Oladipo and Adams).”
Assuming we get the #13 pick – what other combos do others like?
I think Karasev’s offensive game is similar to, and could be better than, Otto Porter’s. I would love to have him for that reason. But I concur with Tom Pestak in that I honestly don’t think he can stay in front of an NBA player . . . and possibly will never get there.
What are we going to do or talk about after the draft?
“Franklin could be a possible target, he was brought in this week to workout with Oladipo, Porter, and Mclemore.” Only Uli Kunkel picked up on that. (Is that your real name?)
Every time I read Adetokunbo’s name I have a Christian Eyenga deja vu all over again. Freak athlete. Didn’t perform well at a low level of competition . . .
I’d prefer Noel, but I could live with Len, Olapido or Porter. This isn’t passing up Shaq to draft LaPhonso Ellis. The top 6 players are about as close as they’ve ever been.
I like the Len pick. Look at the last 15 NBA champions. All had significant offensive production from the 4 or 5 position. While TT has a ton of upside, and Andy is great for the team, none of them are capable of carrying the scoring load on the low block and project as being better defensive/rebounding players than scorers. Noel may get there, who knows, but if the Cavs feel they need a scoring big instead of an all-around 3 (Otto) or a defensive big (Noel), then Len is probably the pick. And I don’t dislike that at all… Read more »
I could see Shabazz sliding into a 3 guard rotation with Dion and Kyrie and possibly coming in for small ball lineups at the 3, of course Shabazz or Dion would have to become a 3pt threat. I think it would be hard to pass on a guy with his potential and an NBA-ready body if he’s there. The deal supposedly has us taking back Marion and its not clear if we’d be giving up the 19th or not. Franklin could be a possible target, he was brought in this week to workout with Oladipo, Porter, and Mclemore.
Sleeper #1 pick: Cody Zeller. The Zeller boys. Zeller’s market. Zellegraphic. Zellophone. Zell Computers. For Whom the Zell Tolls. Led Zellplin. Zellicopter.
len will be terrible. it makes NO sense why you’d want him first overall.
Len, touted to be the more polished player . . . didn’t dominate at Maryland, didn’t make 1st or 2nd team all ACC, and his team didn’t make the NCAA tournament. He’s the #1 pick?
Plus he’s a big with a foot/ankle stress fracture. How is everyone ignoring the “elephant in the room?”
@Uli Kunkel
I would personally like any of these: Cody Zeller, Steven Adams, Karasev or Dennis Schroeder. I would be also okay with Olynyk or Shabazz.
Tom,
If the rumors that there is a deal in place for the 13th pick happen to have an ounce of truth to them, who do you think Grant pursues at 13 in this mock? Sergey is the rumored target, but some interesting big-wing tandems could be taken with those picks; the eastern euros (Len and Karasev), the big names (Nerlens and Shabazz), the nice fit guys (Porter and Olynyk), or the defenders (Oladipo and Adams).
Uli Kunkel – a bunch of those tandems are exciting. The problem with Shabazz on the Cavs is that he’s undersized for SF and that would make the Cavs undersized at every position other than PG. Karasev looks promising but he might not be able to guard anyone at the NBA level for a while. They are severely lacking in defense, size, and above-the-rim play. If they do trade up to #13 I think that is a near guarantee that they are taking a Center at #1, either Noel or Len. There are a few SF they could choose between:… Read more »
Really talking myself into Alex Len lately. How many big men in the league have his combination of defense, post moves, and ability to shoot a 15 footer? He is kind of starting to remind me of a slightly shorter, slightly more athletic version of Roy Hibbert. I would take that as #1 overall.
@Rodney I’m in the camp that a Pau and AV front court is easily enough to compete for a second round win in the playoffs.
If Alex Len goes #1 then I pray we traded the #1 pick.
Unrelated:
Draco (Hogwarts):
No matter when it happens, next year or 3 years from now; who do you think will be the next EAST team (other than the heat) to win a championship?
Kevin Pelton (3:15 PM):
Cleveland?
Here comes the 2nd round after we Upset the knicks in the first round With KI. DW. SK or Otto, AV and Pau, with TT, Len, and GEE on the bench.
Also Len would help limit Andy’s minutes meaning both would be less likely to get injured. I’m a huge Len fan and have been since December. Len and Sergey at 13 sounds awesome to me. Hell if Otto slips maybe the Kings want their pick back and we pull a 3 way with them and Dallas. We go to 7 take Otto. Sac gets 13, their pick back and a 2nd. Dallas gets 19 and a future since they don’t want contracts back. Then we trade Zeller for pau gasol to save the Lakers 90 million due to their repeat… Read more »
FWIW, I just saw this from an ESPN chat with Kevin Pelton: Nate (Madison) Do you honestly see LeBron going somewhere else? He’s not a player that NEEDS to play in a big market because his name will generate income no matter where he goes. I think I would x off the Lakers, Bulls, and Celtics because I don’t think he wants to follow other people’s legacies. I’d also think the Knicks are out of the running because of Melo’s $$. Kevin Pelton (3:00 PM) Realistically, I think it’s Lakers, Cleveland or stay in Miami. And if you look at… Read more »
Gordan,
Starters aren’t the only one’s who impact games. Just because Len may not start from day one doesn’t mean he wouldn’t make an impact.
I do agree with you that you only take Len if you think he is a better long term prospect than Noel. I wouldn’t have thought this was possible a week ago, but I’m starting to come around to the fact that he just may be the highest ceiling player in this draft.
Can we please just pick Porter and be done with it, he’s the only one that fits a need, and doesn’t have 2 or 3 giant question marks. We can get a big if we trade up with the Mavericks, Kelly Olynyk, Cody Zeller, and Steven Adams should all be available don’t come with injury concerns. I know sometimes the risk is worth it, but IMO we already have two players that have injury concerns, I’d prefer if 2 of 5 of our projected starters not be out with injuries.
Also Zach Lowe has a great article about why it’s stupid to worry about your bench
http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/66331/why-the-heats-big-three-are-champions-and-the-nbas-star-system-works
@ The Nupe
I can’t speak for anyone else, but my sole concern over Len is his stress fracture. It’s my impression that those types of injuries are re-occurring for guys his size, a la Zydrunas and his foot woes.
The NUPE Why does Len = win right away and Noel = basement for another year? First off, Len has a TON of work needed to be a starter in this league. He is not there yet. So he will come in and back up Varejao at center. That does not mean win now. As long as AV is healthy, he is our starting center, and there is no reason to believe he won’t be healthy this year. Sure, he’s had injuries in the past, but they are weird ones. Noel might be out half the year or more, but… Read more »
Also, why pick Len at all ever? If you want skill that will play right now you take Zeller. If you want potential and awesome defense you take Noel.
If the Cavs want to win right away, I think Porter or Len has to be the #1 pick. Even with Len’s current ankle injury, he should be a solid contributor to the team right away. As stated many times, Porter is a great fit for us as he doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective, plays solid D and plays our biggest position of need. I don’t understand why some people seem to be anti-Len. Look at his size, look at his skill set, look at his athletic ability, look at his all around game. Considering… Read more »
Not that it would happen….but if the Cavs WERE offered Vukevic for Zeller to trade down a slot, the Cavs should jump all over that. Now you can take Porter without conscience, and have your rim protector. Done.
Also, McLemore’s workouts have reportedly been underwhelming. I’m not sure why anyone here wants to draft a SG at #1, especially one that fades in the moment.
Please not Len.
Awful first pick. Penton did a Mock draft yesterday, with a different sports writer acting as GM for each team. Penton had the #2 pick, and someone I’ve never heard of the #1. Penton offered Vucevic and the #2 to Cleveland for Tyler Zeller and the #1. The guy acting as Cavs GM passed, and took Noel. Obviously that doesn’t matter much, but there are plenty of people that are super high on Noel still. To take Alex Len over Noel is an absolute travesty and makes zero sense. If Robert had mentioned Noel’s knee and/or that it was not… Read more »
The Cavs should draft either Len or McLemore. I think the Cavs would be more likely to draft Len because Z is trying to get the Cavs on the Lenbandwagon .
Len is Ukrainian, not Lithuanian. Big difference.
Excellent point, Viktor. It has now been edited. Robert will be scolded harshly.
If we take Len with the #1 pick I will cry
Otto Porter seems to be the guy Mike likes. Len is the guy Big Z loves and is pushing atm.
however, Grant keeps his stuff close to the vest. This is going to be fun.
How about a trade with the Mavs(which seems bound to happen) and us coming away with Len and arguably one of two SF’s with a higher upside than Porter? (Muhammad or Karasev) I really really like that draft, not over reaching and still filling two huge needs.
I like Len and Porter, and in that order.