A Quick Statistical Primer on Earl Clark
2013-07-04
I posted a quick link to the Earl Clark signing earlier, and somewhat to my surprise, most readers were pleased with the signing. Having watched a handful of Clark’s games last year and being aware of his production, the move seemed inconsequential to me. It is certainly low risk though, with only one year guaranteed. But is it a move forward for the team? A few facts:
- He is big, with 6’ 10” height, 7’ 3” wingspan, and reasonably athletic.
- He turns 26 in January.
- His PER was 12 last year, easily a career high. He averaged 7.3 points, 5.5 boards and 1.1 assists on 44 / 34 / 70 shooting in 23 minutes per game.
The Cavs really need shooters.
- Before this season, Clark shot five total career three pointers.
- Last year with the Lakers though, it was 35 of 104. From the corner, it was 10 of 26 (38%).
- He hoisted three shots from deep per 40 minutes, with effective field goal percentage of 51% on those. Over two-thirds of his shots were jumpers (via hoopdata.com).
- An average NBA small forward last season took two three-point field goal attempts per forty, converting 54% eFG (via hoopdata).
- An average NBA power forward bombed less than one shot from long range per forty, with eFG% exactly matching Clark.
As a power forward, his assist rate ranked 19th of 70 players (via ESPN). Looking at those numbers, Clark is a reasonably effective stretch four.
As a wing though, he presents a relatively ineffective floor spacer sandwiched between Dion and Tristan. In addition to the below average eFG% from three, his assist rate ranked 50th of 71 small forwards. Offensively, the team is better served with him playing power forward. The Cavs may plan to play him extensively at small forward however. About that:
- According to 82games.com, he outproduced opposing small forwards by a PER of 12.3 to 12.0 last season.
- Unfortunately in 2011 – 2012 with Orlando, those numbers were 4.2 and 18.4.
- Of small forwards, his 1.06 steals per 40 minutes is below last year’s average of 1.33 for the position.
- Also, he only drew two charges in nearly 1400 minutes.
- His defensive rebounding rate is very strong for a small forward, but only average for the front-court.
He seems best served to play small forward on defense, and as a stretch-four on offense. That is interesting as it relates to his role on the Cavs next season. But first, how did his recent teams fare when he played?
- Via basketball-reference.com, the Lakers played 3.4 points per 100 possessions better on offense without him. Also, their defense tightened up by 2.5 points per 100 possessions when he sat. That negative-5.6 differential* was the worst of their guys logging more than 300 minutes.
- The prior season with Orlando must have been traumatic. The Magic offense leapt by 14.5 points per 100 possessions when Clark hit the pine. Their defense faired 4.2 points per 100 possessions better while he towel-waived. This 18.7 was easily worst of anyone who played more than 200 minutes for them.
Not good. Ultimately, Clark seems best served playing alongside Bennett, with Clark playing the “four” on offense, but guarding “threes” on defense. Clark took a large step forward last season**; perhaps he can do it again this year at age 26. If not, it is difficult to fathom him as a huge aid towards a playoff push, or a significant piece for the future. He is not a back-up point guard, a basket-protecting center, or a small forward with great range that can displace Alonzo Gee. As always with a sentiment like this, I hope to be wrong.
*The Lakers were 25 points per 100 possessions worse during the playoffs when Clark played.
**The 2012 – 2013 Pro Basketball Prospectus listed his comparables as Anthony Avent, Donald Hodge, Hakim Warrick and Alec Kessler.
That Mongo comment was fantastic
Kevin Sorry for the bogus stats- I was ineffectively trying to multitask. The stats came from 82games.com. The numbers quoted were actually the players “simple rating” which appeared to be the average of (player production-opponent production) and (on/off court differential). For instance, Haslem has a positive on/off court differential but is typically outplayed by his opponent, therefore his simple rating was negative even though the Heat scored better when he was on the court. Hinrich was the same. Either way, I was quoting the wrong stat. Regarding how Clark’s numbers don’t add up, he played a very small amount of… Read more »
This is the definitive blog on Earl Clark. Once you’ve read it, there’s no need to read anything else.
“Everything you need to know about Cavs new forward Earl Clark”
http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/2013/07/nba-free-agency-earl-clark-cleveland/#more-90945
@Kevin What you are missing is that W’s mean more than PPP stats. Stats like PPP are often misleading, incomplete, or don’t tell the whole story. Your stats look at the whole season as if Clark played the same the entire season, when in reality he played better in the 2nd half of the season, and in reality he played better when used in different roles. Consider Clark’s stats when playing different roles: Differential as power forward: -4.6 Differential as small forward: +2.7 PER differential as power forward: -3.3 PER differential as small forward: 0.3 When taking the stats in… Read more »
Pdubb,
Where do your on-court / off-court breakdowns for his play at small forward and power forward come from? If his average for all positions is -6.6, how can his positional splits both be less than that? I just woke up and haven’t had any coffee, so I may be overlooking something.
Pdubb, Along the same lines of “where is your data coming from”? I included the Basketball-reference data for on-court / off-court differential of the players that you list below. A few thoughts: 1. Point differential isn’t everything. We can agree on that. 2. Based on what I found, several of your numbers were incorrect: For Hinrich, Haslem and Rubio, their teams were better when they played. For Hinrich and Haslem, it was significantly so. 3. Beal, Valanciunas, and Robinson are very young and were rookies. Beal played the entire season at 19 and the Wizards were only 0.5 points per… Read more »
What this boils down to is Brown and Korkoslav (or whatever) like something about him. Good length and mobility on defense . . . and lineup flexibility . . . at a fairly cheap price. A small piece of the puzzle – so nothing to get fired up about.
It seems clear to me that the Cavs value bigs who can play multiple positions. Ellington doesn’t really fit that mold.
Here are a bunch of lineups I am fired up to see that are possible with Clark and Bennett.
KI, DW, EC, TT, AV
KI, DW, EC, Bennett, TT/AV
KI, DW, Karasev/Miles, Bennett, EC
KI, DW, Karasev/Miles, Bennett, TT/AV
Who else are the Cavs going to sign with that $4.5 mill with a team option? Ellington is a nice shooter but not much else. We already have that in CJ Miles on a dirt cheap contract and it’s easy to find those guys. Livingston is good on D and I’m sure we can bring him back if we want but he isn’t a great ball-handler, is a terrible shooter, and doesn’t have much upside. Why not take a shot on a 6’10” 25 year-old guy with a 7’3″ wingspan that can guard at least 3 positions and has some… Read more »
@Tom Why do you say that people are “blindly assuming (with zero evidence) that Earl Clark is going to be an upgrade over Gee..” when Cory posted evidence? (better PER of opposing players of the same position) As long as we are comparing the two, last season Clark was better than Gee at 3s (.336 compared to .315) as well as overall shooting percentage (.440 compared to .410). It seems that in Clark the Cavs have an upgrade over Gee at SF in someone who is still athletic, but taller, with longer reach, defends comparably, rebounds better, and shoots better.… Read more »
@Kevin First, I’d argue that the numbers at Orland are pretty irrelevant. He barely played and probably picked up a lot of garbage time minutes. Also, If players and situations were static, it would matter, but they aren’t- his more recent performances reflect a more accurate picture of where he is as a player. Even if you put any stock in the Orlando numbers, consider the drastic growth from Orlando to the Lakers…that shows a good amount of development. More importantly, I’d point out that Clark has shown that he can be a starter/contributor caliber player on a playoff team… Read more »
Pdubb,
What you are missing about the 63% winning is that the Lakers were 6.5 points per 100 possessions worse when Clark played (and it was -25 per 100 in the playoffs). It was the lowest on the team. They weren’t winning because of him.
This isn’t like Bruce Bowen at all.
@Kevin – I don’t know if it’s a lack of reading comprehension or what. I don’t see anywhere that you bashed Chris Grant for getting Earl Clark. Objectively – Earl Clark has not been an effective NBA basketball player. He’d probably score 200 points in my rec league but when RAPM can only find a dozen guys worse than you… I certainly have no idea what Chris Grant is doing. None. Zero idea. I get the sense none of us do – which is puzzling since we are getting accused of thinking we know everything. It’s one thing when a… Read more »
Most of the Einstein’s here and on FTS probably all still think we shoulda drafted DWilliams and KWalker as they did 2 years ago (instead of Kyrie & TT) – and still seem insistent that Dion was a bad pick. Sorry – I’ll side with Grant and his pro scouts over the younglings at CTB & FTS doing most of the typing…Clark is definitely > Casspi (who was non-existent last season)…
Mongo,
Go find where C:tB said to draft Williams and Walker and provide a link. John Krolik picked Kyrie #1 in a TrueHoop Mock Draft. In another article where he listed some scenarios, he was wary of drafting Williams, as he was 95 – 100% sold on Kyrie being good (but only 75 – 80% sold on Williams being good). I did a draft board that year and had Kyrie at 1 and Williams at 2.
If anything you could have said “the Einstein’s here that think we should have drafted Valanciunas…” C:tB were big fans of Jonas in 2011.
$ – who is bashing? What the heck are you talking about?
Yeah, I don’t know about “bashing”. Three-fourths of the article was just results from the last two seasons, and the other quarter were the opinions that he fits reasonably well with Bennett, but probably doesn’t move the needle much for the team’s prospects next year.
Tom,
I did it too, but we really need to not answer the “you guys are too negative comments”. It just turns into us saying “No, we’re not”, and then a response of “yes, you are”…to which we reply, “Nope”.
A lot of time was spent doing that last year and it was never very productive.
Best case scenario, Clark becomes a good 3 pt shooter and is a 25 minute/night solid contributor for 2 years on a cheap contract.
Worst case, he’s only a practice squad player and is off the books after this season. A nice Chris Grant low risk, high reward type move.
Typical CtB writers. Bash the Cavs for not making signings, then the Cavs sign a young guy with some upside on a favorable contract, and CtB writers bash it.
Sorry guys, Dwight Howard and Chris Paul aren’t coming here. No reason to overpay role players or sign long contracts when we aren’t a competitor yet. Get the big pieces then fill in the gaps later. We’re still looking for/developing the big pieces. Takes patience.
Also, on Gee… They were putting him on the other team’s best player every night (like supposedly LA did with Clark). The opponent PER is naturally going to be higher when you’re guarding the other team’s best player every night.
@WitMi
If you think its just a “coincidence” that the Lakers won 46% of the time when Clark didn’t play much and won 63% of the time when he did, more power to you. I find that good evidence that he plays a valuable role- I think most non-haters will too.
Pdubb,
How do you respond to Clark’s poor on-court, off-court numbers over the last two years? Worst on his team both seasons.
@ Vesus
Supposing they did pick up Horford for TT & Varejao (that seems realistic, maybe throw in a pick if they had too). Would this become the Cavs starting lineup:
C – Horford
PF – Bennett
SF – Clark – with Bennett and Clark switching roles between offense and defense.
SG – Waiters
PG – Irving
With Karasev and Zeller coming off the bench. Is it me or does that seem pretty good starting 5? Now the kicker with this, is that the salaries add up, meaning the Cavs would still have room for a max contract after 2013-14.
They signed a role player with some upside to a short, team-friendly contract.
This is neither a terrible nor a great move. Just a move, nothing to get too excited or depressed over.
As I’ve said before, I think Horford is our most realistic goal as an impact big man that could be available soon. Just be prepared to say fare-thee-well to either Tristan (good luck!) or Bennett (we hardly knew ye)
Just for clarity, those number are PER stats
I think he is a good fit with Bennett and an upgrade over Gee defensively.
According to 82games for 2012-13
Player 48-Minute Production by Position at SF:
Gee – 11.0
Casspi – 12.5
Clark – 12.3
Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production at SF:
Gee – PER 17.5
Casspi – 15.8
Clark – 12.0
When looking at it like that, he’s a solid upgrade on defense. Which makes sense for the Cavs if you figure that Kyrie and Dion are going to be the primary scorers.
I agree with WitMi and Kevin that he seems to pair well with Bennett. I’d imagine both would come off the bench, at least to start the season.
As an aside, I don’t actually like opponent’s PER as a defensive metric. I used it in the article, but if you spend much time looking at players, it’s easy to find serious flaws in it as a player evaluation tool.
Witmi,
I agree and made that point in the conclusion paragraph.
“He seems best served to play small forward on defense, and as a stretch-four on offense. That is interesting as it relates to his role on the Cavs next season. But first, how did his recent teams fare when he played?”
This lets Bennett guard 4s and defense and play the 3 on offense.
Pdubb, I think those stats just indicate that “record when playing X minutes” is not a reliable statistic at all.
I probably like 2/3 of the Cavs’ personnel moves. With that as my intro, a few thoughts on the type of comment that says, “How do you have the nerve to questions CG / MB, who spend all their time thinking about basketball and have great resources at their disposal?” 1. No one is perfect. Definitely not me. (probably) Not Chris Grant or Mike Brown. 2. All GM’s have great info at their disposal and are paid handsome sums to make personnel decisions. Several of them routinely make poor decisions. Even the best don’t make the right decision all the… Read more »
Imagine that, a cTB proverbial dump on a Cavs roster move. Back to Fear the Sword, where even if the tone isn’t celebratory, it’s not never ending Debbie Downer. I will take Kobe’s word for it that Earl Clark is a valuable basketball player. Besides, it’s a team option for the 2nd year. Pretty minimal risk to try it out for a year and see if it goes the way you want it to. Back to the bitching.
Another Lakers stat that reflects well on Clark is the W-L record based on his minutes:
When Clark plays less than 20 minutes: 19-22
When Clark plays 20 minutes or more: 26-15
Interestingly, when he played 30 minutes or more, the Lakers were 10-9. So they were 16-6 when he played 20-29 minutes. This suggests that Clark is a valuable role player but shouldn’t be relied on too heavily. As far as I know, that’s the part he’ll likely be playing for the Cavs. Seems like a good pickup.
He works well with Bennett as he can kind of guard SFs.
He’s better than Casspi/Gee
From a value added standpoint this is like adding the 6’10 version of Donald Sloan only paying him 20x the $.
@Mongo – why does he “got to be a huge upgrade to Caspi [sic]”?
Clark has been one of the worst players in basketball the last 2 years.
The Casspi comparisons don’t just stop with their numbers. They’re also both players that need lots of minutes to be effective. You forget that there was a time early in the season, Mongo, that Casspi was among the top three point shooters in the league. Both Casspi and Clark have fragile confidence and need to play at least 15 minutes a game to be effective. Clark’s playoff run was a disaster, but he was sulking at that point. As a one year rental, Clark adds some depth and a possible 3-D starter, and that’s fine.
Using Clark’s total 12-13 stats doesn’t give the correct whole picture – considering his #’s were much higher when he was playing regularly and in the regular rotation – he hardly played the 2nd half of the season. Obviously, MB’s short time coaching Clark provided some additional insight into the dude’s potential that examining season average’s doesn’t. I don’t expect the dude to be Mr. Basketball or anything, but he’s got to be a huge upgrade to Caspi who was practically non-existent.
A few more notes about Clark that talk about him favorably:
http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/lakers/post/_/id/36633/2012-13-lakers-report-card-bench-frontcourt#more
A few notes on Earl Clark from Dave McMenamin of ESPN LA: “Earl Clark: A throw-in as part of the Howard deal, Clark was a spark plug for the Lakers in January and February before fading down the stretch and bottoming out in the playoffs. L.A. could do worse than getting Clark back, but there could be better options out there, despite the fact Clark is just 25. Clark is set to meet with the Cavaliers and former Lakers coach Mike Brown on Tuesday, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer. ” “The ’12-13 season was bleak for LAL, but Earl… Read more »
Do people who post on this site really think they know more than Grant and Brown about what a professional player can and can’t do for the Cavaliers? If you think you know more than our GM and/or head coach, then I have a bridge in Brooklyn I would love to sell you!
Don’t forget that Mike Brown must want him for some reason… Maybe he sees something in him that no one else does. His signing could signal a potential trade of another player as well… Who knows…
On that note, is there any possibility of the Cavs being one of the 3 teams to absorb some of the GS contracts via trade if the Lakers don’t S&T DH? That all assume DH is leaning to GS. I am surprised that no one anywhere has mentioned any of the teams willing to absorb those nasty GS contracts.
One good omen about this move (in the intangible area) is I am seeing more Laker fans upset than happy on the message boards.
We needed depth with the likelyhood of Varejao going down sometime in the middle of the season. Decent low risk pickup. With pretty much every center waiting until Howard signs we’ll have to wait on that signing if one is to happen.
A little more information on Clark…Looking at the data available for free at Synergy Sports, he ranked 295th in the NBA for points per play as a spot-up jump shooter. Despite being low usage, he was 245th overall for points per play.
On defense, he allowed 0.9 points per play, good for 279th in the league. Specifically against isolations, he defended 265th best. and against the P&R ball handler, 187th. He actually faired a lot better against P&R roll-men and post-ups.
So, based on their data, neither his “3” nor his “D” was noteworthy.
Let’s see what happens next.
@Jason – That’s an obvious point to everyone except for the Lakers coach. For some reason starting anyone but Gasol seemed to be his prerogative, and ultimately ended up with Clark getting paid. He’s just not very good. If I was the Cavs I would have stayed away and concentrated on playing the Varejao/Zeller, Thompson/Bennett quartet more. They all have more upside/current skills (Bennett hopefully will prove it) than Clark.
Earl Clark had some decent games last year, but he’s a one year rental. I fail to see how he’s better than Casspi. They’re extremely similar players. He does have some defensive upside. It looks like the Cavs are going after a lot of 3/D small forwards: long guys with not much ball handling, but who can rebound and hit shots. It’s not a bad move, but the Cavs need some more ball handlers on the second unit.
One thing about +/- that is tricky, you have to consider who is subbing in for him. For LA, it was Pau Gasol. Of course the Lakers are going to be markedly better with Gasol (or Howard) out there than with Clark. It seems to me he’d be most effective with the second unit. A Clark, Bennet, Zeller frontcourt is pretty athletic. They can all shoot from distance some. Clark likely is the defensive SF and offensive PF, with Bennett the reverse. Earl can post smaller SFs while Bennett and Zeller space the floor. Or Bennet can post smaller SFs,… Read more »