Trends, Ranks, and Outliers: Season 2 Episode 2
2013-12-16
Thirty second summary of last episode:
-Mike Brown is a slow starter / strong finisher
-At his current pace, Tristan Thompson will break Mark Price’s free throw percentage record sometime in about 10 years.
-Even in the early going, the Cavs ranked strongly in defense and rebounding
-Turnovers + terrible shot selection = awful offensive rankings in almost every category: eFG%, FTA, PitP, etc
-Anthony Bennett’s start was an outlier for a #1 pick. The Cavs had not covered the spread in 9 straight games.
CUE late 80’s Rock Ballad Intro!
Welcome to another episode of TRO! You just listened to “Tonight’s the Night” by the Michael Stanley Band. This tune is easily one of the most memorable from my childhood, along with the Lake Business Products jingle. As you, our valued sponges are acutely aware, our mission at TRO is to be wholly interesting, and not necessarily comforting. However, the Cavs have looked better lately, so there are ample amalgamations of interesting data to keep you safe and warm.
Rising Trend: Offensive rating1.
The Cavs are 23 games into the season and their offensive rating stands at 96.9, 27th in the entire NBA. However, the rust is starting to wear off. The chart below shows offensive rating for the Last N number of games.
That’s not an error, the Cavs have posted an offensive rating of 112.7 the last 3 games. Of note, the Cavs posted an offensive rating of 86.4 through their first 3 games of the season.
Offensive rating is the easiest way to demonstrate improved offensive effectiveness, and there really isn’t any single component that stands to tell the story. The Cavs have made gradual improvements in everything! More charts:
%PTS MR refers to the percentage of points the Cavs earn by taking mid-range shots2.
As you can see, the Cavs have improved their approach to offense. Generating free throws, improving shot selection, and effectively setting up teammates are three areas in which they have shown improvement. It’s worth noting that this is the TRENDS section of our episode, in other words, these metrics show a direction, not a ringing endorsement. Even during the last 5 games, the Cavs are in the top half of the league in % of points coming from mid-range, and the bottom half in % of points coming in the paint. They’re not a good offensive team by any means, but they are on the right track to becoming respectable.
#1 Ranks:
Kyrie Irving is #1 in the Eastern Conference for last week.
After Kyrie’s goose egg game against the Hawks, he’s rebounded well. Last week, when the Cavs went 2-1, he posted 19 assists to only 6 turnovers. If the Cavs have any hope of making the playoffs, Kyrie’s going to need more player of the week awards than goose egg games. This is the most boring ranking TRO has ever dared print, but the budget is tight and we have to save the fireworks for the premiere and finale.
Outliers from the Outback: Matthew Dellavedova’s +/-
I’ve figured out what the Cavs can do to win more games. It’s as simple as playing Matty Super’DOVA more often. I’d been waiting for 82games.com to update and they finally did. I had a hunch that Dellavedova’s +/- numbers were going to be off the charts in comparison to the rest of the Cavaliers. I’d seen too many games where he was the only guy on the team with a positive +/-. It turns out he’s just an insane outlier.
As a team, the Cavs are -5.6 points per game. Usually, when a team is in the negatives, you can take solace in a player’s differential between on court and off court and not the raw numbers. A team may be minus 2 points with player X on the court but if they are minus 20 when the player leaves the court, that is a signal. However, we don’t even need to do that here: in 222 minutes the Cavs are a blistering +10.8 points per 48 with Dellavedova on the court, or in raw numbers, +50 in 222 minutes. DELicious! It gets better, his net plus minus is +20.3! Filtering out sub 100 minutes players, Only Paul George, Kevin Love, and John Wall and Nate Wolters3 have a more impressive net +/-.
Depending on how it plays out, we may someday look back on Matthew Dellavedova as the player most responsible for “saving” the Cavaliers’ season. With 6:35 remaining in the 3rd quarter of the most embarrassing game of the season, Mike Brown, drowning in a 27-point deficit, at home, to the lowly Wizards, emptied his bench. Dellavedova’s relentless energy infected the team, and they crawled all the way back to within 4 points before falling short. Super’DOVA posted an insane +21 in 27 minutes of action. After the game, Dan Gilbert tweeted:
Perhaps so. And if so, the Cavs have mostly Dellavedova to thank for making the choice to give 100% effort in the midst of the crippling malaise that had infected the rest of the team. Since that time, the team has certainly taken a liking to the young Australian.
While we’ve seen visual evidence of Dellavedova’s tenacity on defense and ability to scrounge up 50/50 balls, it might not be readily apparent how effective he is offensively. His offensive rating of 111 is a major outlier on the team, his assist to turnover ratio is 2:1, and he’s hit 10 of his 22 3-point attempts this season.
The Cavs may have found a diamond in the rough with Dellavedova, or maybe his effect on the team is partially random and his folk hero status will fade with sample size. We’ll know more as the season progresses, but it’s time for him to get more minutes.
Super’dova
1 Offensive rating in this article is NBA.com’s offensive rating which is simply points per 100 possessions. Basketball-reference.com’s O-Rtg is more commonly used in the statistical community. It is more complicated and is explained here.
2 Those unholy abominations that must be stamped out of existence!
3 Edited out to make a more compelling case (holy heck Nate Wolters!)
Was gonna post something similar Rodney. Ya beat me to it! The point however is I hope people will start noticing that Dion HAS been consistent for a while now! I mean what a way to react to all the shite being said about you after his bout of the flu. If Kyrie had Dion’s heart…man…
Dion since 1st game back from the Flu or fight or 11/22 he’s averaging 16.3 points on 51% from the floor and 41% from deep. It’s only 12 games but still. Gee needs to be cut for that
Lets look at the positives if this was 2 weeks ago we would have been blown out by 30 points.
I’m tired of Dion not getting any calls. Portland shot like 10 more FT’s than us and it was our home game! Unacceptable… Kyrie came out in the 4th and it looked like more of the same 4th quarter malaise with him missing a wide-open 3 and then getting smothered for a TO but I give him credit. He didn’t hang his head and showed some real maturity with that dish to Andy (btw, has anyone else notched that Dion is the only player on the Cavs who can consistently get others lay-ups via the pass? Man, we need more… Read more »
I wish Gee would have forced him to do something there. Had he chased him off his spot once he got the pass he would have had to drive and probably dish. As a defender you gotta be thinking ‘7 seconds left if he takes a couple stationary dribbles for a couple seconds he’s not driving he’s pulling up.’ I don’t know. Still sulking.
I’ve been aboard the Hate train for Jack and Gee for a couple weeks but tonight those 2 were brutal tonight. Gee (direct address please answer) why would you give a guy who has already hit 7 threes (Yes I said 7 threes) 5 feet of space at the spot he shoots over 50% from (Yes Austin Carr said Over 50%) the floor in a tie game with 7 seconds left? And Jack why do you suck at most aspects of being a pg and still get paid tons of money? And Brown why would you not use Delladova instead… Read more »
Dion is turning into Mr. Second Half. He consistently has gotten the Cavs a lead in the fourth.
@Matt – that pass was a welcome sign.
Very winnable game but the Blazers are very good. We got killed on the offensive boards, missed way too many layups, and Lillard was unconscious, and still nearly won. Obviously much room for improvement, but if they play like this against teams that are not Portland, we’ll win a lot of games. They are still figuring things out but what gives me hope is that they’ve shown signs that they can figure things out. Kyrie actually passed the ball when he was smothered on the game-tying basket.
Don’t know if I’m being irrational, but I hate Jarrett Jack’s game.
Yeah I’m sick of seeing the Cavs play two completely different styles with and without Kyrie. It’s like it takes the whole team 6 possessions before they get their bearings.
Tom,
I’m bummed too. For some reason I’m taking this loss tougher than the other 14.
Hopefully the last 2 minutes woke Kyrie up … And the ever present Lillard Threat
Crazy that the Cavs insisted on running the offense around Jarrett Jack midway through the 4th when Dion was unconscious like that.
Also, Dion got hosed on that no call late in the 4th.
I am very bummed right now
There is no doubt in my mind that if Irving had come in for Jack in the 4th instead of Delladova we would of won that game.
Forget I mentioned Singler just looked up his numbers. Ouch.
Thanks kj. Another guy who’s long and shoots the rock is Singler. I don’t know how bad he is on Defense but he plays for Joe Dumars so he might be gettable for a low price.
Rodney, you may have talked me into Green. Maybe…still, cogent argument…
He’s pretty high on my semi-realistic wish list. On it is Danny Galinari, Chandler Parsons, Kosta Koufas, and if Memphis keeps losing Marc Gasol will jump to the top. There are a few others but if your 4 can’t shoot your 3 has to shoot in my opinion. That’s why I’m not a fan of Young or Deng or even Turner
All day. First I think that we have enough Tweeners on this team all ready and Young is a better 4 than 3 imo. If we didn’t have Thompson Bennett and Clark I might feel differently but I also think power forward is the second easiest position to find production after PG. Green is a 2/3 and I think a better 3 than 2. His length is awesome and his shooting has improved every year. Green’s a year and so older but has had far less Court time due to playing behind Durant/Harden/Ibaka and Kg/Pierce/Allen. He also lost a year… Read more »
Saw it mentioned on Twitter and should have known not to believe something on Bleacher Report. Car was stolen this week. Haven’t slept much. Still no excuse.
Rodney, you’d take Green over Thad Young? You’re nuts.
Yeah, Cory, that B/R article just looks like it was recycled from four weeks ago. That “source” sounds like a loon. Also, Dion’s going to be second banana in Chicago, too. This is a lot of crazy talk for a guy who isn’t even a third of the way through his second season. Philly would do Turner for Waiters in a heartbeat. They don’t want to have to pay Evan next year. I swear, half these articles are generated by the teams that that want to get rid of the guy. I bet a 6ers fan was the “source” on… Read more »
That Bleacher Repirt report was awful! Filled with bogus conclusions and very little facts. I would pay it very little attention…
I was talking with some fellow hoop heads at a bar last night about trade scenarios and one that we went over was Jeff Green to the Cavs, Andy to the Rockets and Asik to the Celts. I have no problem trading Andy for Green. I don’t think Green’s contract is that bad, but it would be a significant commitment. Realistically can the Cavs get a better SF than Green for 8.7 million a year? Probably not. As much as we love Cleveland for being the unpretentious land of pierogis, NBA players don’t see its charm in the same light.… Read more »
Parsons does really well for his draft position. I like him, Green is doing really good, Parsons seems like a better passer and more consistent spot up guy, which is kind of what we really need.
Chandler Parsons is gonna be a free agent after this season. They will be looking to trade Asik for someone who they can dump next season so they can resign him. Maybe we can swing a trade for Parsons, it’s unlikely Houston will pay him what he’ll probably command next season. What kind of contract do you think Parsons will take next year?
*Trade Machine. Substitute green for Gee and Clark instead of Waiters, Miles and Delladoa and it add more wins. The other bonus is it’d allow Zeller and AB15 to get consistent minutes.
@Nate. The cradle Machine is position specific so it doesn’t allow him to play Small Forward as he would here. Line up’s of Green, Waiters/Delladova and Irving would finally allow the Cavs to space the floor and still play Defense. I don’t want to trade Andy unless we get a young good player going forward. Green is 6’9 shoots 42% from deep and can handle the ball like a guard. He’s not the star some people thought he’d be but at 8 million per for 3 more years he’d be an awesome bargain. I don’t want to trade Andy unless… Read more »
Small sample size or not, Kyrie is struggling in the clutch. Both the numbers and my eyes tell me so. This is a problem and all the whistling past the graveyard in this blog about it ain’t gonna make it go away. The Cavs playoff chances depend on Kyrie getting way better in the clutch…
What I got from the article is just how far the cavs are from being good. He tries to compare Bynum to Aldridge which isnt even close at this point. Wesley Matthews is what we should hope Dion becomes. Wesley Matthews is playing so well this year. I agree the Robin Lopez/ Tristan stuff is bad, but the numbers about Kyries jumps shooting are startling. After the Rookie Sophmore game when Kyrie dropped Brandon Knight, I remember the commentators were hailing him as one of the best shooters in the game. Whats also interesting is if Kyrie was shooting anywhere… Read more »
GREAT Article, Tom. Though, I don’t know why you’d filter out Nate Wolters. He’s a very similar story to Delly. As for the “Delly will never be a star” talk, there’s no proof of that at all. Kevin made the first Steve Nash comparison, and Delly has parts of his game that are far superior to Nash (like defense). He has decent court vision, a refined floater, a sense of when to take open shots, a knack for individual and team defense, etc. Furthermore, he’s a rookie. Prescient rookies seasons are often a sign of very good things to come.… Read more »
Playa of the week!
@Jake. That article is garbage. It actually lifted my spirits and brightened my outlook for Kyrie. In spite of having his highest usage and worst stretch of his career his numbers are equal to Liliard’s best stretch of his career on 25% less usage. If you ask me that’s Awesome news. When I started reading that article I expected Liliard to blow Kyrie away since he’s playing the worst ball he’s played since grade school and Liliard is having the best stretch if his career.
Those are some pretty small sample sizes. I think taken together is probably closer to where he’ll finish his career. @kyrieswerving. Your probably right but all three teams have multiple draft picks so I think it could happen. Just depends on whether Danny Ainge wants to build around an above average rim protecter or an above average SF.
Jake, I posted those clutch numbers comparisons in an earlier thread. Again, Kyrie is not only nowhere near his previous clutch numbers, he’s a net negative in clutch time this year. Compare it with Dion’s clutch numbers, for instance.
Maybe Kevin Hetrick will give us a post about Kyrie’s clutch struggles?
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1890992-kyrie-irving-and-damian-lillard-headed-in-very-different-directions
very interesting article
I don’t think Boston would prefer Asik over Jeff Green, Rodney. I think you’d need to do more convincing for Boston than for Houston. But I’d certainly entertain it
Also if I’m Grant and I can’t trade Gee I’d cut him. He’s terrible and he’s taking minutes from Karasev, Delladova, Waiters, and Miles. He’s also a player that Brown loves ala Ira Newble. Grant needs to save Brown from himself
How would you guys react if the Cavs traded Andy to the Rockets and got Jeff Green from the Celtics in a 3 way. I’m not sure if the other teams would do it and I hate trading our best player right now but this fills our biggest hole the 3, and makes room for Zeller and Bennett to start getting minutes. The rockets claim Andy isn’t enough but he might be the best offer they get. Maybe we throw Delly, Karasev or hopefully Gee but to me it’s fair all around as is and works. Every team probably wants… Read more »
At least Kyrie is hustling the ball up the court now a la Delly. No more walking it up. He must have seen how the offense was more effective with Delly doing it.
He’s supposed to take Alonso Gee’s minutes. And some of Jaret Jack’s.
I was just joking. My issue is that Kyrie’s minutes and scoring burden are all the same as they were last season, all they are asking him to do extra is to give average effort on defense.
J Hill, yes it is ridiculous. Give me a break. If Delly had to shoulder Kyrie’s starting PG minutes, scoring burden, and defensive assignment against the other team’s starting PG, then his impact would obviously be stunted. Dellavedova has been a quintessential role player, but don’t get it twisted…that’s what he is, a role player. Ask him to do more than that and the holes in his game will become glaringly obvious. (And I’m a huge fan of SuperDOVA.)
The Cavs are deep but not top heavy, so it’s understandable that someone like SuperDOVA isn’t getting 30 minutes a night. Whose minutes is he supposed to take? Right now the Cavs are having success playing him at the 3 along with Jack and Waiters in the backcourt. But it’s tough to trot out 3 perimeter players that are under 6’6″ so Mike Brown is going to have to be creative. One thing that would help (and everyone’s been beating this to death for 2 years now) would be if Kyrie Irving had success playing off the ball. When he… Read more »
Is it really AtlantaRob? I mean, he seems to be the only guard on our team that can actually pass into the post without throwing it to the crowd members in the 2nd row of the baseline.
Out with Kyrie, in with Super’dova.
(This is ridiculous, but you knew someone would post)
How about the outliers that Gee is the has the worst defensive rating on the team. And that Jack has the worst offensive rating. Delly needs to start getting there minutes.
Also thumbs up to Grant for signing him and Brown for giving him playing time and rewarding effort, I’m thinking it wouldn’t have happened under Byron Scott.
I think it’s really fun to watch the little underdog guy go out there and really have an effect on the game both statistically and visually. Lets be honest he’ll probably never be a superstar player but he plays like a gritty Tony Parker (essentially I’m saying he’s not a world beating athlete) even if his ceiling ends up as a decent backup point guard who plays hustle defense and doesn’t turn the ball over that’s not bad for a player that went undrafted. I hope we can lock him up to a multi year contract if he keeps it… Read more »
It could be that Delly has an effect on the team similar to what Luke Walton brought them last year. The thing that’s really odd- in a cool way- is that it’s a ROOKIE who is setting the tone and earning the respect.
Will Mike Brown figure it out and make him a rotation regular? Odds 50/50 at best.
funky cold, watching SuperDOVA play, I often find myself thinking this is the blueprint to Aaron Craft having an NBA career. And yet, I don’t see Craft being able to shoot 40% or better on NBA 3 pointers (or college ones for that matter). That is likely his undoing. Delly is like Aaron Craft with a jumper.
Great job on the Delly stats! I wonder who will steal it and pass it off in their broadcast/column?
Is Delly a good-Earth Aaron Craft?
Question: president of USA or AUS?
Again, the story is Kyrie’s crappy numbers esp his clutch numbers. I think it deserves it’s own post esp in comparison to his first two years…