Congratulations! You Won the Lottery. Now Don’t Screw it Up.
2014-05-22Urban mythology is filled with the tales: people who won the lottery, and woke up three years later at the bottom of an empty swimming pool clutching a bottle of Jack next to a passed out former XFL cheerleader and a Tibetan Mastiff named Chodak, while the sounds of the flatbed truck cranking up the winch to repossess the Bentley echoed in the distance. “That guy had everything, and pissed it all away,” the documentary always says…
The Cavs don’t want to be the NBA version of that story. After winning their pick of the NBA prospects in the greatest draft since 2003, we Cavs fans, and I’m sure the front office, are euphoric. With this pick, two picks next year, and $40 million to spend, the Cavs have sooo many options. I don’t know about yours, but my head has been spinning for the last 24 hours — dazzled by the overwhelming number of possibilities. David Griffin has acknowledged all these possibilities, too. And to his credit, he’s been setting off smoke screens since the minute the pick was announced. I’ve heard that Parker, Embiid, and Wiggins are all at “the top of the Cavs list.” I’ve heard that the Cavs will look at more than just those players. I’ve heard that Griffin’s phone has been ringing with trade offers since the moment they got the pick, and that the Cavs “will be open minded.” But like someone who just won the Powerball, Cleveland needs to disconnect the phone for a day or two and figure out what’s really important.
Rules for Winning the Lottery:
- Don’t spend it all on things that lose their value the minute you get them. What I really mean here, is don’t trade for Kevin Love! Trading for KLove is like buying a Jag or an RV that can hold a Porsche inside of it, or any of these things. The moment you drive them off the lot they lose half their value. Why in God’s name, if you’re the Cavs, would you trade half your roster for a guy who will opt out after next season, and will be an unrestricted free agent. That’s what James Dolan did with Carmelo Anthony. If Griffin decides he wants Love, then he should do the smart thing and build a fantastic team and then lure Love as a free agent, because Love’s not
signing an extensionwaiving his opt-in. I bet the Knicks really wish they had Galinari and a first round draft pick this year — and that James Dolan drives a Jaguar. - Plan for the future. Or, if you’re the Cavs, you don’t want to just be good next year. You want to be good for the next ten years. You have a chance to get a transcendent talent in this draft, and with over $40 million in cap room/voidable contracts, you can set a roster foundation for ten years. Don’t make stupid decisions to chase wins for one or two years. This means you can’t sign free agents that will give you a good year or two and then hang around on your cap like the that bloated XFL
strippercheerleader. (And yes, I’m probably talking about Luol Deng). It also means: don’t draft the best player as of now. Draft the guy who will have the best career. - Keep a close, trusted circle of friends. Don’t go get a bunch of new friends you think are better than the ones you have. The friends you have from elementary school are probably more trustworthy than the tattooed Parrotheads you met on the Jimmy Buffet cruise. I’m talking about Tristan Thompson here. Tristan has gotten a lot of derision on this blog and from the media in general over his “fit” on the Cavs. But let’s not forget what Tristan has done well. He has been a positive attitude player and a tireless worker from the minute he joined the squad. He completely reshaped his game and added a major facet each offseason. His hand switch and his free throw shooting improvement are unprecedented, and in many ways, he was like a rookie all over again, last year. If the Cavs had drafted a junior power forward who had a rookie year like Tristan just had, we’d all be ecstatic. Yes, Tristan doesn’t always fit, but there’s absolutely no reason to trade him. Let him play out next year. He doesn’t have to start. He can be a bench big. Let him learn how to play defense (again), and let him become a restricted free agent. The Cavs don’t have to make a decision till next year. Tristan will still be a very solid individual and a guy you want on the team, next season. But I’m betting he’s a late bloomer, and will be a really good player in three years. Plus, he’s not a Parrothead.
- Don’t make any radical changes. Don’t quit your job. Don’t buy a home in the Pyranees. Don’t open an artisanal fondu restaurant. Don’t get rid of Anderson Varejao. Seriously, try finding a better center than Andy by scouring the free agents and guys who might be available via trade. You can’t do it. Gortat might be the only one, and he’s probably re-signing. (And I wouldn’t want LARRY SANDERS within the Cuyahoga County limits, let alone on this team). While this might be an argument for drafting Embiid, it’s also an acknowledgement that this is a really bad free agent class for centers. Statistically, Andy is still a great and he is notorious for taking rookies — especially international rookies — under his wing just like Z did with him. The Cavs need guys like Andy on their team both on the court and off. Yes he’s injury prone, but the Cavs can mitigate this by doing something they’ve refused to do for the last three seasons: managing his minutes. Andy shouldn’t play on the back end of back-to-backs. He shouldn’t be playing the fourth time in five nights, etc. 25 minutes a game should be his max. If he can show that he’s healthy to start the season Cleveland should even consider extending him.
- Assemble a team of top notch advisers. Don’t advertise so that any huckster who can do a Google search can come along and con you into investing into a string of Doggy Day Spas. Don’t listen to investing advice from failed frozen yogurt mogul, Uncle Ned. Go find out who the best advisers are and hire them to advise you. Then, listen to them. And I’m talking about Dan Gilbert here. Let Griffin assemble a team and listen to him, Dan. Go get a coach who has been around and who has coached and/or played with great players. Hire guys who’ve been successful in this role. And by this I mean don’t hire Alvin Gentry. Would you hire a financial adviser who lost money 53% of the time? A financial adviser who only made money three out of 12 years? Then why would you hire an NBA coach who has only had three winning seasons in 12? Dubious equivalencies aside, Cleveland needs to get a top notch coach more than ever, now. George Karl has the pedigree, reportedly wants to coach in Cleveland, and has put together winning teams everywhere he’s been. If Karl can get the 2013 Nuggets squad to a 57 win record, I can’t imagine what he could do with this Cavs team. And pick up Mark Price as your top assistant, George, so he can coach when you retire.
- Figure out all your options and get as much information as possible before you make any decisions. Check out your state’s tax laws. Research blind trusts. Decide on the tax implications of an annuity or a lump sum payment. Figure out how to protect yourself from gold-diggers you will invariably meet at the Sandusky Yacht club… And go through all these draft picks and scenarios with a fine tooth comb. Which means you don’t draft Embiid without having your own doctors evaluate him at the Cleveland Clinic. Before you make a decision, talk to every player’s coaches, trainers, ex girlfriends… Ask him about his workout habits. Find out if he snores, has trouble breathing, and likes buffets (Chris Grant skipped these steps last year). And don’t decide on a guy without figuring out if there’s a way you can trade down and still get him. (Go get Ray Farmer in your war room for this). I should not need to say these things. They would seem to be obvious for a competent NBA front office, but given that the Cavs front office staff drove around in a clown car for all of last summer, I’d rather be safe than sorry.
- Don’t lose yourself. From Robert Pagliarini of Huffington Post, “It’s hard to keep things exactly the same when you get a check for millions of dollars, but at the same time, you don’t want to lose the aspects of your life you now cherish. Step outside the craziness of the situation for a moment and make a list of Who and What you love about your life that you don’t want to change.” The Cavs need to do this. What works about the Cavs? What do we and the Cavs front office want to keep? IMO, the thing that works best is that they’ve consistently tried to draft high character individuals who work hard and don’t do stupid stuff off the court. That’s why last summer was such a mess. The Cavs deviated from the plan of accumulating guys with professional attitudes and high character, and decided to go after Andrew Bynum. I hope that David Griffin and Dan Gilbert remember this lesson and the platitudes about integrity that Dan has espoused over the last four years.
- Don’t get married (without a pre-nup). Belinda, the ex-XFL
groupiecheerleader you met on the Parrothead cruise? That’s not going to end well. If you do decide to marry her, sign a pre-nup. Give yourself an “out.” I’m not sure there’s an NBA equivalent to this. I guess it would be: think really long and hard before you spend a lot of money on a questionable signing. Go look at Joe Dumars’ and Ernie Grunfeld’s careers as GMs for a list of what not to do. Don’t overpay mediocre players. Don’t give a lot of money and years to guys with a history of injury problems (ahem, Gilbert Arenas). If you do decide to take the plunge, try a partially guaranteed final year, and make sure you can medically insure the contract (I’m talking about you, James Dolan). Or you could just move in together for a while. (Get a vasectomy first). - Figure out what you need. Figure out what you want. The most important tip for maximizing a windfall? Figure out how much money you need to live on, and then figure out what you really want. This will tell you how much you can spend and let you prioritize some luxuries. This way you can avoid stupid stuff like private jets, Juggalo gatherings, and centers who believe in the benefits of medicinal and recreational marijuana use. (all are huge money siphons and liabilities waiting to happen). The Cavs need to figure out what they need: shot-blocking, three-point shooting, and perimeter defense . Then they need to figure out what they want. For me, athleticism, leadership, and work ethic are be the NBA equivalents of basketball/tennis courts, a home studio, and a cabin in Alaska. Adding a “fully functioning mech suit,” just to have it is like adding yet another ball dominant scorer.
- Don’t out-think yourself. Trust your gut. (Unless you’re Chris Grant or George Costanza). My gut reaction for lottery winnings? Set up a college fund for my kids. That’s probably a good one.What was your gut reaction when you found out the Cavs won the lottery? I trust the wisdom of crowds. A plurality of people have a good amount of common sense. Their gut reaction according to this Akron Beacon Journal poll? Draft Andrew Wiggins. I trust that. Of course, I see that 18% of people are James Dolan, too, so maybe not.
The metaphor has kind of played itself out here. This isn’t actually like one of us schmucks winning the lottery. This is a business decision buy guys who’ve already won the lottery of life several times over. But the principles are still prudent: educate yourself, don’t do anything rash, and stay true to who you are. I’m an admitted Wiggins fan, but I know that I don’t know everything. I’ll be doing my research on who the Cavs should take and what they should do in free agency over the next few weeks. I hope the Cavs give it the same kind of scrutiny and unlock secrets of these players that I couldn’t begin to unravel. And then I hope they sleep on it and trust their gut and draft well. Meanwhile, I’ll be dreaming about 44 inch verticals, unlimited three point range, silky post moves, and one of these.
The more I think about it, the more I see the Cavs drafting Wiggins and then trading him for Embiid or Vonleh/stuff. They need a rim protector the most, if LBJ cannot be coaxed back then perhaps they could sign Melo to play 3 (I know he is terrible on D there) or worst case Deng/rookie
The Kings are also apparently trying to trade out of the #8 slot and want vets. I wonder if they’s take a package of sign and trade deng and/or Jarrett Jack and a future first for #8 and some of their dead weight (perhaps D. Williams)?
Seems like the #8 pick could yield Marcus Smart, Vonleh, Gordan or Randle.
For everyone advocating for wiggins, I think this is a good read:
http://deanondraft.com/2014/02/14/andrew-wiggins-an-ordinary-player-in-an-extraordinary-body/
It presents what’s to me a fairly compelling argument looking at the large risks involved with wiggins in terms of development. I know that the argument against this article is that wiggins is still young and much of what he lacks on offense can be taught. However, the comparison to Marvin Williams and Thaddeus Young is well taken and should definitely be considered.
I think Embiid and Wiggans will go #1 and #2 unless the Cavs totally screw up and take Parker. Neither of them is likely to be available at #3 if we trade down. If Embiid’s back is okay, there’s no way he’ll drop. I get heartburn every time I read some article claiming the Cavs favor Parker because he’ll help them the most next season. Unfortunately, Gilbert’s ownership has been marked by urgently seeking a near term fix instead of building a winning team. Embiid and Wiggans are already good enough to be elite defenders and both have high potential… Read more »
That deal with the 6ers? Why would they make it?
Actually, I would take the deal with the 76ers in a heartbeat. They will use #1 to draft Wiggins, Milwaukee has Sanders and needs an immediate potent scorer (Parker), leaving the Cavs to draft Embiid with no handwringing. Then they could use #10 on someone like James Young or Dario Saric. Or, if Wiggins falls to them at #3 instead, they could use potentially #10 on Vonleh or Nurkic. Its winwinwin
Does anyone else think this is just a big set up so the NBA’s poster boy (labron James) can come back home to a team full of promising young talent im not buyin it #come on man
I don’t have any reason to NOT believe it other than the fact that Windhorst basically insists that LeBron won’t play with a young, underdeveloped team.
ha I wrote that wrong. I meant trading all your assets away for a PF like K Love while missing out on what would’ve been the next LeBron James.
Furthermore, if this draft is indeed the best since 2003, can you imagine the backlash for trading your best players AND the #1 pick for the next LeBron James? I don’t care if you get the next 3 lotto picks, it won’t equal the talent of this year’s draft class.
Do NOT draft anymore injured #1 dudes in the draft. Bad backs are chronic. I’d be fine with either Parker or Wiggins, but most pro scouts agree Wiggins has the highest ceiling between the two, although Parker would fit in quicker than Wiggins. We’ll see how much pressure Griffin has by the reach of possibilities. If he trades the pick, it’s due to the pressure of feeling like he has the unreasonable view the Cavs have to win the title this year. Love hasn’t done anything for a terrible team like the T Wolves (remember the Cavs worse season was… Read more »
It seems that the general interpretation of the Cavs “win now” is that they will actively seek to trade the 1 pick this year for an established/budding star. Why can’t they take a stragey of “improve every year” instead of seeking a quick fix? Meanwhile, does anyone have a trade scenario in mind that might garner us the #3 pick without giving up either Kyrie or our own #1 pick in this year’s draft? I’m 100% sold on Wiggans and Embiid. I’d pretty much go all-in to put those two guys with Kyrie and take my chances. Even if Wiggans… Read more »
I like Givony, but comparing Vonleh to TT? If Vonleh is a taller TT who can actually shoot, sign me up.
One thing is for certain, we need a Kevin Hetrick-esque performance slaving over all details over the three and some other options. Always enjoyed his write ups.
Can’t Vonleh shoot though? Doesn’t that already put him a step above Thompson?
There might be a problem with DG wanting to run things; hard to say. I do recall last summer hearing that CG was on the hotseat to win this (last) year. His competence rate seemed to drop a lot starting late last summer. Maybe he was just in over his head. CG’s legacy in the draft is yet to be determined. Cannot argue about KI. You can argue about TT and DW, but they are certainly not obvious mistakes. Last year TZ looked lame, but he made a big step up in year 2; you have to count him as… Read more »
Listening to DraftExpress podcast and Givony thinks Vonleh is a taller Tristan Thompson. If Chris Grant were drafting he would totally take Vonleh #1.
Agree with the general skepticism towards Windy. But his comments about stability, while personal, were insightful. I do worry about the impact of Gilbert decapitating 3 coaches in 4 years on the coaching search.
And yeah. A lot of this Windy stuff is sour grapes over him losing his sources in the Cavs org.
Yeah, but Drummond didn’t have the same injury TWICE.
Oh and Nate, whether you have or had some fecal matter in your brain is not for you to decide, is it? Haha! We can see it clearly enough…
Josh, do you follow the NBA? Do you know Drummind had the same injury and has played 2 years with no signs of trouble? Furthermore, Oden had knee problems, like Noel did/does. Compare apples-to-apples, hmmm?
Btw, still waiting for the Wiggins/Durant comparisons, if you wanna pretend these are the same situations!
Windy also stated in the podcast that he had a close relationship with Grant and Brown. Perhaps he’s salty that his friends/insiders got shit canned. His article about Z’s retirement ceremony wasn’t worth the quarter pounder with cheese wrappers he outlined it on. The only point I really thought that Gilbert meddled was chasing away Danny Ferry. He probably was right that Brown should have been fired, but losing Ferry in the process hurt. Grant outthought himself too often. Analytics is great and all, but fit and the eyeball test matter too. I don’t think most GMs would have paired… Read more »
what is the opinion of all of us bloggers if the 76er’s present us with the option —-our #1 for their 3rd and #10 —-just curious on the opinon of ” the g.m bloggers “—if you make that trade who do we take
Hot S:
I am usually not impressed with Windhorst.
Can anyone recall his opinions from past years, and how often he turned out to know what he was talking about?
Sometimes I don’t think that it’s LeBron who doesn’t want to live in Cleveland but Windhorst who doesn’t want to move here to piggy back on him.
BTW: Windhorst was on Whitlock’s podcast today. Fascinating stuff. At the end he goes on a long rant about ownership, and basically (reading between the lines) says Gilbert is a BIG problem with Cavs. Must listen. Must Listen. Scary stuff for us, actually….
http://cdn16.castfire.com/audio/303/2117/25224/2199222/jasonwhitlock_2014-05-22-150822-3953-0-0-0.32.mp3?cdn_id=33&uuid=422b85753aafd000504a618219e3ee71&referer=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FIcdaxp4Y72
What *wouldn’t* surprise me is if they have people that are payed to read blogs to gauge fan reaction. Or at least Gilbert might have people that do that.
Ticket sales are important, after all.
lol. I’m sure they spend so much time reading the comments too :)
Josh VS: Our opinions DO count. CtB is one of a couple of blogs that Griffin and Gilbert read. : )
@Vesus
*fist bump*
@ Rodney See, I think Wiggins will be able to immediately step in and play the 2 or 3 – the team shouldn’t need him to create offense, so he can concentrate on adding a little bulk, improving his shooting and just being the defensive monster I think he can be. You would have to pass on a potentially elite big man, but I don’t think Wiggins presence would stunt anyone’s development. Plus, you have the TT/Bennett #TeamCanada connection so he should immediately feel comfortable with his new teammates. I actually see him as the perfect fit here, not someone… Read more »
Okay, never mind that last post.
Not that any of our opinions count for anything, but stamping our feet and insisting we’re right without facts doesn’t really contribute to the conversation. Reasoned arguments are at least entertaining and engaging.
Here’s why I like Embiid. Without him Kyrie Irving will alway be awful on defense. If Embiid turns out to be who we think is it would allow us to play Bennett at the 4 and Kyrie at the 1 at the same time. Wiggins to me requires to adjust the roster too much. Even with him developing into a 3 it will be 3-4 years before he’s strong enough to slow down the elite 3’s. Which is ok but I think he handicaps Bennett and Waiters. Forcing us to sell low on one of them. Embiid will take maybe… Read more »
@ Rodney Mac
You definitely need big men to win, no doubt. I just see Wiggins as a guy who will eventually be a notch below Lebron in his ability to impact a game. That makes him a no-brainer choice for me, but I fully understand the intrigue of Embiid.
I guess I’m just risk-averse when it comes to big men – I also didn’t want anything to do with Andre Drummond and that was clearly the wrong choice. Prefer to trade for or sign big men who have already established themselves in the league.