Links to the Present: The LeBron Choice Edition
2014-07-10Everything the past few days to do with the Cavs has been related to LeBron in some way. Trading away Sergey Karasev, a first round pick, Tyler Zeller, and Jarrett Jack was done to open $21 million to sign LeBron to a max salary, if he wants to come to the team. And, the trade is being graded exactly on whether or not LeBron returns by local fans and even national pundits.
Kevin Pelton of ESPN has given the trade a “C” for Cleveland. However, Pelton acknowledges that even though the trade leaves the roster depleted and out of a future first round pick the trade is perfect if LeBron comes to the team.
If the Cavaliers know that’s going to happen, this trade gets an A-plus. If the league’s best player is coming, you do whatever is necessary to make it happen.
For Cavs fans that were lamenting the loss of Tyler Zeller, there is some evidence from a Celtics blog that you have a reason to be sad. Counting the Baskets shows that Zeller is a decent rim protector allowing opponents to only shoot 47.40% near the rim. The league average for shots at the rim is 50%. Furthermore, Zeller shot over 50% of his shots within three feet of the hoop, and he has increased his true shooting percentage and free throw rates each year he has been in the league. So, there are some arguments for why Zeller is going to be a future All-Star the Cavs just gave away.
LeBron’s choice isn’t going to be made because of Zeller thankfully, but it may be made because of the roster’s makeup and because of the Cavs owner, Dan Gilbert. Thom Haberstroh of ESPN believes that Miami holds the advantage defensively, offensively, and roster wise over the Cavs right now. However, the Cavs are selling LeBron on the future. Look at this point about the Heat’s and Cavs’ projected records.
Looking past next season, the Cavaliers might offer James more upside. Indeed, Pelton’s projections have the Cavaliers eclipsing the Heat in 2015-16 as Wade and Bosh age, but there’s way too much uncertainty a year from now to make any hard conclusions in the data.
The Cavs roster, even without LeBron, certainly won’t play as bad as last season, so I have to disagree with that statement and say there isn’t much uncertainty about the Cavs’ record improving.
Even if it is true that the smart basketball future move is to come to Cleveland, LeBron has to forgive Dan Gilbert. J.A. Adande is doubtful as to why LeBron would do that especially considering what Gilbert represents as a conservative owner.
There’s an undercurrent to this summer’s free-agency period that makes it more than just a reshuffling of rosters. The proceedings are a referendum on the labor conflict fought in 2011 and perhaps the grist for a new battle in the next round of negotiations.
I’ve interpreted reports that LeBron will take nothing less than a maximum contract as his way of rejecting the premise that it’s incumbent on players to make the financial sacrifices to win, as if the owners don’t also have the option of paying the luxury tax to assemble a championship team.
However, LeBron is very mature.
Maybe LeBron wants to send a message that’s bigger than the business of basketball. Maybe he wants to demonstrate that, to seek forgiveness, one must first be willing to forgive. LeBron returning to Cleveland in his prime could be the greatest reconciliation of a player and a fan base in sports history. But it would nullify any future commentary from LeBron about the relationship between owners and players in the NBA.
Terry Pluto counters all of those arguments against LeBron returning by simply suggesting that Dan Gilbert should tell LeBron the Cavs will spend whatever to win, unlike the Heat. Unfortunately, if that argument and a youthful roster aren’t enough to get LeBron back to the team, the team is in a bad spot as far as available free agents go. The top small forwards, Gordan Hayward and Chandler Parsons, are in the midst of being signed now since the Cavs have waited so long to use their money. Channing Frye is on his way to Orlando, and the remaining big men and small forwards such as Chris Anderson, Gustavo Ayon, Andray Blatche, Trevor Ariza, Al Farouq Aminu, Mike Miller, and Ray Allen are all flawed pickups. They are either replacement level players, old, headcases, or just plain bad.
I hope Chris Sheridan is right when he is says LeBron is coming back.
The Decision has been made, even though it hasn’t been made public by the man himself. LeBron James is returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers, a league source tells SheridanHoops.com.
And, I hope that LeBron’s website really is doing some some coding on secret pages that are in Cavs colors to prepare for his decision announcement.
And, finally, I hope that this statement is true: “Cleveland is the center of the universe.” I’ve heard that said by many people in many different bars throughout Cleveland and Parma, Ohio, when I have visited after moving away. I always want to go back, even if it isn’t always the best personal decision, and that’s the general feeling I get from almost everyone that has moved away. There’s a certain pace that $2.00 draft beers, pink flamingos, and amazing places like the West Side market give to the city. LeBron has seen that pace, and hopefully he wants to live that pace again.
Wiggins has to be untouchable.
If Minny doesn’t take Waiters+Bennett+picks, then develop Bennett instead.. and tell Flip in January that the offer is now only Waiters+picks, or Minn gets nothing at the end of the year when KL walks.
Never been happier to be wrong.
Still can hardly believe it!
as brian windhorst said ( and I am not a big fan of his ) but he is correct—-LEBRON NEVER SAID 1 WORD ABOUT COMING BACK TO CLEVELAND —–IT WAS THE NATIONAL OVER HYPE THAT CREATED ALL THIS EXCITEMENT—IT WOULD BE NICE IF HE CAME BACK —BUT AT THIS POINT I HAVE MY DOUBTS—-BUT I AM STILL EXCITED WITH THIS PRESENT ROSTER AND COACHING STAFF—-GO CAVS—WITH OR WITHOUT LEBRON
Kevin Love will cost Cavs lots of money and picks , the idea of trading Wiggins and Thompson and picks for Love is absurd , first of all Wigg could turn out to be the next superstar + production wise and money wise it would be crazy to add by subtraction of not only great picks but also hamstringing the team in the near future. You need a team to win year in and year out. Does anybody remember the bad boys, they had a team and their best player was not the best in NBA at the time, it… Read more »
Lebron. Dude. If you want to come to Cleveland – sign already.
He probably told the Cavs, “Get Kevin Love and I’ll come.” But getting the injury prone Kevin Love would be a disaster. It would be a salary cap disaster. Kyrie for Love makes some sense . . . but I’d much rather have Kyrie.
Even if Love gets traded to someone else, he still has to resign. I’d be getting Kyrie & LeBron (if he signs) to just be saying to Love “Look, if you want to play with us refuse to sign a contract whether ur traded or not, then join here for the max in 2015 meaning we can make sure we surround you with the best possible assets”.
That obviously means we can have a full year of examining all our young pieces and assessing which ones work well in Blatt’s system and alongside Kyrie and James
Cavs can’t sign Monroe outright because they only have, what, ~23 million in cap? In this scenario 21.4 (I believe) is being used on LBJ. The rest is earmarked for Ray Allen’s vet min. Ergo, they have to do a sign-and-trade. So, what do we give up? As much as I hate it, seems like Dion and Bennett could be the odd guys out here (I’m hesitant to include AV because LBJ likes him). Maybe Haywood?
Good morning ALL,
FYI: Kyrie Irving with be offered in a Deal for Kevin Love. FIRST!!!
We’ve got some good pieces left to build on even after the trade and maintain valuable assets. Definitely not the situation it was in 2010. we’ll see what happens with LBJ but really looking forward to the first summer league game
In all honesty, I’d be surprised if he comes back at this point. one “official” meeting with Miami, hanging with D Wade, them flying together back to Miami, no official meetings with Cleveland and execs… I could be wrong but there seems to be a lot more signs to Miami than Cleveland . At this point, just gone head and say what you’ve gotta say either way
Lebron flying to Miami today is the nail in the coffin.
If he’s going to Brazil immediately after for a few days, he’s got to sign a contract before he goes. And there is NO FRIGGIN WAY he’s signing a contract to play with Cleveland….while IN MIAMI.
Cavs got played. AGAIN.
Might be right, but (on the other hand) don’t forget that all flights to South America leave from Miami.
I’m leaning Underdogs way. I would take Lebron back but that would prob also entail taking Love, Allen, Miller all for a price I wouldn’t like the team to pay. And I think 7 years of Wiggins (because no one walks on their rookie extension) would turn out to mean more for the Cavs than 3 of Love.
Allen will probably play for the min. I don’t know about Miller, but the word is that he is waiting. Love is the one who would break the bank. Personally, I would not trade Waiters for him, and anyone who would trade Wiggins for Love either cannot see the big picture, or is out of their mind. I know he is some peoples favorite player. I like Bill Russell, and wish we had him as a 21 year old, but I would not trade Wiggins for him now.
(more) Suppose the draft was being held today, and Love, Wiggins, Bennett, and Waiters were all as they were on their own draft day. What order would they get picked in? Probably Wiggins, Bennett, Waiters, and then Love last. No one disputes the fact that Love has worked incredibly hard, and has greatly exceeded his expected level, and it is not likely that all or any of the other three will over achieve to that level. But, they all start at a much better athletic level. The greatest over achiever of all time is undoubtedly Larry Bird. Notice that he… Read more »
I don’t think he is coming back and the CAVS will be desperate for a center …..overpaying for Monroe just sounds like a headache. ..guy doesn’t even average 1 block a game….he is a bum. Monroe averages 0.7 blocks while averaging 32 minutes a game….Zeller averaged 0.7 while playing 21 minutes. Greg Monroe is a bum as a 5.
Let me be the first to say that I prefer that Lebron not come back. I was hoping to watch this team grow as a group . . . not hire a bunch of mercenaries and then call it a Cleveland championship. These aren’t our guys. I could’ve rooted for the Heat this year if I wanted to root for these guys. You can pick any team of all stars any year and root for them. When Lebron left I didn’t have a problem with him exercising his rights as a free agent . . . or even “The Decision”… Read more »
Salary cap is going to keep going up; a MAJOR uptick is expected in 2 more years after the NBA negotiates the new TV deal.
I agree, Underdog. When LeBron left in 2010, I was most upset by how it seemed like he didn’t realize what he meant to Cleveland and its fans. He has a right as a player to do what he wants, but he was more to a player to us back then; he was our great hope at winning a championship–in any sport– and he was such an exemplary guy. And then he left us for dead. If he comes back; awesome. If he stays in Miami; even better as far as I’m concerned. That would be the ultimate revenge fantasy… Read more »
I want Lebron back – he’s the best player in the world and his return would give the Cavs immediate opportunities to win an NBA championship. Unlike some other so-called superstars, Lebron clearly makes his teammates better. I just don’t think he’s coming back. Which is strange, because I think the Cavs young talent is perfect for him to make an extended run and win more titles. Meanwhile, I think having Kyrie locked down, Wiggins, our improved coaching situation, Bennett starting the season in shape, etc give Cavs fans a lot to be optimistic about. Lastly, I understand the reluctance… Read more »
I am getting nervous —-seems like the momentum of his signing has shifted / died down —-got that ” no good feeling “
I think all this time bodes ill for the Cavs. Like maybe he decided originally to come back and then changed his mind when he had the meetings, so now he has to back out of everything. Who knows.
Just watched the video piece with David Blatt on Cavs.com — http://www.nba.com/cavaliers/behind-scenes-david-blatt
Love it! We finally have a good coach. Sorry my Dad isn’t alive to see that — he taught English Lit at CSU for many years and would have loved the reference to Shakespeare.
that,s what I am talking about —hopefully they ( the cavs brass have a ” plan b “——HOPEFULLY WE DONT NEED TO USE UT
If Lebron doesn’t end up coming back, I’m more than okay with the cavs overpaying for Monroe and moving on with the current roster + Monroe. That’s a great group of young guys to build around for years to come. I can watch Kyrie, Dion, Wiggins, Bennett, Thompson and Monroe get better together.
A starting Back Court of Wiggins, Bennett and Asik would be better, You need at least SOME defense which Wiggins and Asik would provide, while Bennett spreads the floor and provides offense. You would need a defensive big next to Monroe (like he has currently with Drummond).
Monroe ain’t worth 20 million
This is starting to get ridiculous. The longer this goes on, the worse I think it looks for the Cavs. There’s NO WAY that Lebron is waiting this long to announce a decision he’s already made. He knows what’s at stake for the teams waiting on him to commit. The longer he waits, the smaller the pickins the team he goes to has left, as all the remaining FAs sign with other teams. And I can’t believe he’d knowingly leave Bosh to twist in the wind, and possibly get his Houston deal pulled. So, that means one of two things… Read more »
Grover13 – What you’re missing is that Lebron will be Lebron. He’s a guy who likes to do things his own way. No decision he might make would truly shock me. 1. It’s pretty clear that he has all of the leverage. The Cavs will accept whatever terms Lebron disctates. If he told them to trade Wiggins for Love – they’d at least try to do it. For the record, I’d rather keep Wiggins. 2. Miami has no cap space to make anything significant happen. Unless Wade is willing to leave many, many millions on the table, they are stuck.… Read more »
What we still don’t know is who LeBron is talking to and back deals he may be making with Bosh, Wade, Melo, Miller, Ray and anyone else he wants to play with. When you have as much power/influence as he does, he can really call the shots and partner with whomever. IF he has decided where he’s going, he’s making demands and deals to make it work for hi target team. Thats what takes time is the teams we may have to deal with that aren’t getting LeBron. For example if LBJ wants love, then the Cavs will give up… Read more »
Ridiculous? It’s a huge decision for himself, his family, his past and future teammates, the league, etc. Maybe he’s taking the time to make sure he gets this right and can live with the consequences. I certainly would take my time if I were in his place.
Even though I don’t think Lebron is coming back, the trade is a setback, not a debacle. And, by waiting, Lebron has at least saved the Cavs from wildly overpaying for Hayward or Parsons. FWIW, I don’t want to overpay Ariza either. No way is Trevor Ariza worth $10M+ per year.
We need to play our young guys and hope that Bennett turns out to be a decent player and Wiggins plays to his ceiling rather than his floor. In another 3-4 years, Lebron will just be another all-star rather than a guy that dominates the league.
TOO MANY GAS FUMES TO MAKE THAT STORY BELIEVABLE
Crazy stories going on. Gas station attendant in Malibu just said that KG and Paul Peirce just got gas and said that Ray Allen is going to sign a 1-year deal in Cleveland since LeBron is going and so now KG and Paul are going to Cleveland too so they can end thier careers with Ray and win a ring with LeBron.
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
A couple of thoughts: First, I agree with everyone saying no to giving up Wiggins for Love. A potential super-star on a rookie salary could mean we are the only team with a legitimate big 4 a couple of years from now. Losing Dion would be gutting but Love would be worth it and Wiggins is better fit with that roster. Second, the under rated part of the trade yesterday is that due to the pick protections and Stepien rule we can’t offer any future pick of our own until 2021 (or 2016 at the earliest) as you are forbidden… Read more »
Agree with James.
Agree with Raoul.
Agree with Grover.
If we pay 3 guys $20MM each and the salary cap is $63MM – does that mean everybody else has to divvy up $3MM?
Marc Gasol is 4 years older and averaged 14/7 last year. Love averaged, what, 27/12?
Everyone agrees that Love is a good player. But its not like he is another LeBron. It is hard to translate what someone putting up big numbers on a lousy team will do on a good team.
There is also the issue of defense. We hope that KI will learn to play some. LeBron is getting too old to be the only guy on the team trying to play any D. It is likely that Wiggins will be great at D right out of the gate. Love, not so much.
What will it cost to sign Mike Miller? He is reportedly waiting.
Windbag house hunting in Cleveland?
http://fansided.com/2014/07/10/espns-lebron-james-reporter-brian-windhorst-reportedly-house-hunting-cleveland/?utm_source=FanSided&utm_medium=Network&utm_campaign=Around%20the%20Network#!bcqL39
That has to be sarcasm. Also, if Windhorst had somehow scooped everyone else, why would he hold the story?
According to Sam Amico, an announcement is coming shortly:
http://hoopshype.com/twitter/tag/cleveland_cavaliers
“To be more precise, no less than five police officers at LeBron James home. They were told to expect a 3:30 ET announcement.
Can confirm extra security stationed on/around property of LeBron’s Akron home as of 3 pm ET. @PhilTrexler initially reported.”
from what I here Thompson is not going anywhere —same agent as LeBron and LeBron really l9ikes him—-we should not give up the house for love—like MERK said wait 1 yr and sign him as a free agent
Won’t be able to sign him as a free agent unless he agrees to take a substantial pay cut. We’ll have two MAX deals on the books. Unless we completely gut the roster, we’ll be unable to just sign him as a free agent.
The only way Kevin Love is coming here is if we trade for him.
Why can’t we gut the roster by trading guys for picks? Even if we sell low, we still get future cheap labor to prop up our stars. One of the problems with the Heat was that they couldn’t get replenish their roster with young, cheap, replacement level talent. They had to settle for overpaying older names who were past their prime and couldn’t play all the minutes they needed to. Having a ton of draft picks even with a gutted roster still gives us flexibility.
If the dominoes fall our way and Lebron chooses to return to cleveland why not make a move and trade for Omer Asik of Houston? If Lebron comes “home” Bosh will sign with Houston. Houston would need to make cap space and we could hopefully get a decent deal on Asik. This would shore up the hole at center. Thoughts?
We’d have to hope the Pelicans’ being $130k away from making the Asik deal work remains a problem for them and we can swoop in and steal Asik for nothing. Houston will be desperate to shed that contract, especially if they sign Bosh and plan to match Parsons’ deal. The problem is, if LeBron comes home, we won’t have the money to take on Asik’s contract. We’d have to move someone else and get a third team involved in order to do so. I wonder if that could somehow involve a massive trade that would include Minnesota and Philadelphia? Minnesota… Read more »
I’m also curious if we could buy out AV and then re-sign him? Then do a little under-the-table action to pay him the difference. It would help us bring in another player or two if LeBron does come back.
That team has no bench. …none.
Here’s a thought: “Omer Asik of Houston” is now “Omer Asik of New Orleans”. He already got traded some time ago, to make room for the Bosh offer.
Thanks for playing, though. Don’t forget your parting gift, the board game version of “Cavs the Blog” you can play at home with your family!
Grover, the trade is not finalized. Also, I posted a link on the previous article about New Orleans’ struggle to clear the requisite cap room to make the deal work. They are now $130k over the cap because the cap came in slightly lower than expected. They may need to move Austin Rivers to make the deal work.
Easily managed. Not material.
No, it’s material. If it wasn’t, the deal would have been finalized. I’m not saying it’s unlikely it’ll come to fruition – just saying that if New Orleans can’t figure out who to deal away (for nothing) before the next 24 hours or so (assuming LeBron makes a decision before he goes to Brazil), then Houston will have limited time to shed the Asik and Lin contracts and might tell New Orleans to fly a kite.
Asik is going to the Pelicans. The Cavs have to have a Plan B if Lebron doesn’t sign. These are professional basketball organizers. If we can figure this stuff out, so can they. I wouldn’t let our past failure as a franchise cloud that fact. I wouldn’t be so surprised if our plan A–should Lebron sign– wouldn’t be to offer a contract to Greg Munroe. It would allow us to keep our depth and our youth and our draft picks and would give us a borderline All-Star big man. That’s a lot of ands!For anyone who is worried about how… Read more »
$12-15 mil/year for Munroe btw
I think right now, it will take Wiggins to land Love if LeBron comes here. Minnesota will know that an Irving-James-Love trio is tops in the East for 3-4 years at least. They’ll know that we want it, and they’ll demand Wiggins.
If we scoff at that, I think Waiters + (Thompson?) + a plethora of first rounders would get it done at the trade deadline. Minnesota can’t lose him for nothing.
I think that second scenario would be ideal. If we do get LeBron, it’ll be reeeallllyy important not to panic trade away what we just sold him on (a sustainable future, flexibility, and budding stars) to bring in an offensive PF whose defense isn’t great and has had some injury concerns of his own.
You continue to forget that they HAVE to trade Love.
Exactly. So doesn’t that give us leverage to not trade Wiggins?
Gordon- I’m thinking the exact same way. If Minny demands Wiggins, I think Griffin should challenge them to a game of chicken. A reasonable trade for both sides would be Dion, Bennett & Varejao for Love. I love Dion, but he’s ball dominant. If he couldn’t coexist with Kyrie, how could he do it with Lebron out there too? Wiggins- who doesn’t need the ball as much- is a much better fit. I like Bennett as well, but let’s be real- if the Cavs have Love for the next 5 years, Bennett won’t get more than 20 minutes a game… Read more »
Repeat slowly: They. Have. To. Trade. Him.
I agree with all of that. But can we really trade AV? Isn’t he one of LeBron’s good buds? I don’t think there is any way Varejao gets traded. He is a total fan favorite and the only guy left from the LeBron era. Cleveland fans would be upset and I think LeBron would be too.
I think a Waiters + Bennett trade, without AV, is more likely. I’m not sure who we’d be able to throw in to make the salaries match, though. I really think that AV is untouchable.
They will be happy to get Waiters. Why do you want the Cavs to bid against themselves? Other than a team in a “gotta be this year” situation, on one is going to give a king’s ransom for a one year rental of anyone. If he wants to join the Cavs, wait until next year.
Gordon-
Have to include AV to make the numbers work. If it’s just Bennett & Waiters, that puts us $6mil over the cap.
Why not offer a trade of Dion, Bennett, Thompson, Hopson, & future 1sts for Love and Dieng. That way the Cavs get a young rim protector and Love while the Wolves get 3 young players and some future 1st rounders. That trade works money-wise and gets both teams what they need. (Even if the Cavs are over the cap).
We aren’t saying that Zeller and a future 1st for LBJ is dumb. We are saying that we all liked Zeller and thought we’d see another consecutive year of improvement. And we’re gonna be pissed if LBJ doesn’t sign because then we lost Zeller, and a 2nd tier free agent.
COLS I AGREE WITH YOU 100%—THE KID ( KIRK ) FROM NEW MEXICO ( IF THEY DON’T PICK ANYONE ELSE UP WILL BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH WITH LEBRON AND COMPANY—-ALONG WITH ANDY/ HAYWOOD—-IF THEY DON’T MAKE THE TRADE FOR LOVE
IF ( AND I HOPE I AM TOTALLY WRONG ) LEBRON DOESN’T COME BACK—STILL THINK THERE IS A WHOLE LOT OF MONEY TO SPEND ON QUALITY FREE AGENTS ( GREG MONROE ETC. ) I WOULD BE DISAPPOINTED IF THE CAVS BRASS DIDN’T HAVE A –PLAN B ( LEBRON NOT RETURNING ) IN PLACE ——-THERE WOULD BE GREATER DISAPPOINTMENT IF WE KNOWINGLY HAD A CHANCE OF LEBRON COMING BACK AND DID ABSOLUTLET NOTHING—-I STAND CORRECTED I T WOULD NOT BE DISAPPOINTING IT WOULD BE NEAR RIOT SCALE OUTRAGE !!!
I cannot believe the freaking out in Cavs land over the backup center on a team that sucked really badly for the last 3 years. Loco.
Well Zeller was on a rookie contract, 1.7mil – and has considerable upside. It’s not bad to have a 7’0 footer on your team who can pass, run the floor, and is an ok rebounder – for 1.7million. We are paper thin at Center now. I get that we had to be creative to move Jack – I just hate that it had to include Zeller.
So then, a “backup center on a team that sucked” after two years isn’t worth anything. OK. Tyler Zeller averaged 6pts and 4reb in his second year in the league. By your logic, here are other centers you would have thrown away after their second year: Al Jefferson (7pts, 5reb) Andy Varejao (5pts, 5reb) Joakim Noah (7pts, 7reb) Tyson Chandler (6pts, 7reb) Jermaine O’Neal (4pts, 3eb) Omer Asik (3pts, 4reb) DeAndre Jordan (5pts, 5reb) Marcin Gortat (4pts, 4reb) It takes NBA centers a few years to develop, fool. The Cavs don’t have one, and they gave away one with promise,… Read more »
Nice counterpoint Grover. I hate it when people look at the players and the stats they have and are convinced those will be their stats for the rest of their careers. Whether they be meager stats like these or what Kyrie did his first two years in the league. Look, lets not forget Zeller was coached by Mike Brown. We know who Mike Brown is. We really don’t know who Tyler Z is yet (definitely don’t know who Karasev is). He may very well be a 6/4 guy but I’d wager with proper coaching and regular minutes, he’d be better… Read more »
My thoughts exactly.
Did you just say Tyler Zeller is going to be a future all-star? That’s ludicrous. And crazy and Nuts
Sarcasm.
As of right now, the Cavs roster > Miami
All the Heat have is Norris Cole, Shabazz Napier, Josh McBob and Danny Granger, unless they’ve signed others.