Northwest Division Preview
2014-10-09
Skinny no more.
Oklahoma City Thunder:
Coming off his first MVP award, Kevin Durant is poised to take the next championship step in his NBA career. Â At least that is the narrative for an OKC Thunder squad that remains largely intact after a quiet off-season. The 2013-2014 team was arguably the second best team in the NBA after losing a tough Western Conference Finals to the Spurs. A rested Kevin Durant(sans USA play) and healthy seasons from Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka should ensure another 60 win season.
Additions: Mitch McGary (rookie), Anthony Morrow (New Orleans), Sebastian Telfair.
Subtractions: Caron Butler (Detroit), Thabo Sefolosha (Atlanta)Â Derek Fisher (Knicks coach) Hasheem Thabeet (Pistons)
Storylines:
1. How much better will Steven Adams be in year two? The 21 year-old Kiwi should play big minutes and establish himself as an effective two-way center. One would assume Kendrick Perkins will be demoted from the starting lineup sooner rather than later.
2. Of course, any logical assumption that relies on Scott Brooks’ basketball acumen is dicey at best. Brooks probably received too much criticism early in his career than was warranted. However, recent seasons have seen little strategic progress. The Thunder continue to rely purely on the incredible individual talent of its stars. I am not one to bash Russell Westbrook’s shot selection. What is more disappointing is the lack of creativity in the Thunder offense. Brooks hasn’t helped Durant to establish better pre-catch position with any interesting off-ball action. As Scott Brooks enters his seventh NBA season as head coach, he is rightfully on a short leash.
Cavs Championship threat level: 9
If Brooks ever figures out how to harness the talent on this squad, the NBA will be in trouble. With insane length and athleticism at every position, the Thunder could negate the Cavs’ transition game (all Cavalier strengths are theoretical). David Blatt would do his best to bait Russell Westbrook into taking deep jumpers. The Cavs new head coach absolutely subscribes to the Popovich line of thinking. Regardless of occasional success, Blatt will play the percentages. The Cavaliers depth advantage would be challenged by the possible emergence of the Thunder’s youth. Perry Jones could be primed to make big strides with increased playing time a year after Reggie Jackson’s coming out party. Â Durant vs ‘Bron, Kyrie vs Westbrook and Ibaka vs Love? That would be some entertaining basketball.
Prediciton:Â 63-19 Â Lose Conference Finals.
Alas, Scott Brooks will put a roof on this seemingly limitless team. Even with a healthy Ibaka, the Thunder don’t get past the Spurs.
Portland Trail Blazers:
Get over that pick!
As the Blazers got off to a 9-2 start last season, many NBA gurus questioned whether it could last. The answer, of course, was “yeah, kinda!” Â Coach Terry Stotts and LaMarcus Aldridge led a dynamic starting five to 54 wins and a trip to the second round of the playoffs. LA had a breakout season by drilling an obscene number of deep jumpers with a sweet flick of the wrist. Damian Lillard become a sensation and Nicolas Batum continued to be overlooked.
Additions: Steve Blake (Golden State), Chris Kaman (Los Angeles Lakers).
Subtractions: Mo Williams (Minnesota)
Storylines:Â
1. Has Aldridge really turned himself into a Nowitzkian assassin, or was his 2013-2014 season a fluke? The answer is neither. The only real difference in LA’s production last year from his previous seasons was his usage percentage. Yes, his monster first round performance against the Rockets was a joy to watch. He is certainly a very good player. But he is not truly an MVP type talent.
2. Guard production: Damian Lillard is a talented 24 year old guard. Has he already peaked? Is C.J. McCollum ready to contribute? How much better is Steve Blake than Mo Williams for this squad. Answers: Yes, yes, and slightly.
Cavs Championship threat level: 5
The Blazers’ starting lineup is incredibly talented, but has a definitive limit. No one in that five is about to take a leap.
Prediciton:Â 51-31 Lose Second Round.
The offense will continue to hum. Chris Kaman could actually provide some good minutes as a post threat when Aldtridge sits. It is still not enough in a tough conference.
Denver Nuggets:
Missing piece?
A season after winning 57 games with George Karl at the helm, the 2013-14 Nuggets stumbled to an injury and identity plagued 36 win season. Brian Shaw finally got his shot at the top position and failed pretty spectacularly. His slow-it-down approach didn’t sit well with an active squad. Despite (or because of) all the “Shaqtin a Fool” highlights that the venerable JaVale McGee provides, he was sorely missed last season. A healthy McGee coupled with Arron Afflalo’s return should help Shaw improve in his second campaign. The Team USA version of Kenneth Faried wouldn’t hurt either.
Additions: Arron Afflalo (Orlando), Erick Green (rookie). Gary Harris, Jusef Nurkic
Subtractions: Aaron Brooks (Chicago), Evan Fournier (Orlando), Anthony Randolph, Jan Vesely. Jordan Hamilton (Raptors)
1. The Nuggets starting backcourt is a treat to watch. Both Ty Lawson and Arron Afflalo somehow continue to be underrated every season. Can Afflalo improve his scoring average for the seventh consecutive year? The fiery duo should be a headache for opposing teams.
2. Which center gets traded to help a real team? Timofey Mozgov and JaVale McGee seem to be discussed in every trade involving the center position. Either player would be incredibly helpful for a championship contending team. Mozgov grew as a rim protector and rebounder last season with McGee out. JaVale is still only 26 and though he is unlikely to develop into a fantastic positional defender, his ridiculous athleticism still makes him a force on both ends.
Cavs Championship threat level: 2
The Nuggets are in no danger of getting out of the first round. A playoff appearance would be a victory after the turmoil in Shaw’s first season. However, the Nuggets are more likely to punt this season if a good trade opportunity comes.
Prediction:Â 38-44 Â Brian Shaw is given a “vote of confidence” before being fired next summer.
Minnesota Timberwolves:Â
We’re number ones!
The 2013-2014 Wolves featured a bruising frontcourt and a Spanish pretty boy who…. oh who am I kidding? Cavs: The Blog really only cares about two guys.
Additions: Thaddeus Young (Sixers), Andrew Wiggins (rookie via Cleveland), Anthony Bennett (Cleveland), Zach LaVine (rookie), Mo Williams (Portland).
Subtractions:Â Kevin Love (Cleveland) A.J. Price (Cleveland), Alexey Shved
Storylines:
1. Andrew Wiggins. Remember him? Cavs fans have gone very quickly from refusing to part with him in any trade talk to completely and utterly denying his existence. Let’s be honest. He is going to be great. We will never know how great he would have been next to LeBron, regardless of how well he develops in Minny. Rubio should set him up with bevy of highlights. He will likely win Rookie of the Year. I wish him all the best. Hopefully, he will lose to the Cavs in a future Finals.
2. Anthony Bennett. See above and replace the word “great” with “pretty ok!” I’m a fan of the player we have affectionately called “Gum Drop Bear.” He can still develop into a high level starter in the league, if not the borderline All-Star that we envisioned. His ability to rebound and defend the post is underrated.
Cavs Championship threat level: 0Â (or *10)
*Depending on how one interprets “threat level,” the Love/Wiggins trade affects the Cavs’ championship future more than any other team.
Somehow Flip Saunders is the Head Coach, President of Basketball operations and part owner of an NBA team in 2014. This does not bode well for a team’s championship aspirations. But, heck he’s from Cleveland, so GO FLIP!!!
Prediction: 24-58. The Wolves will be entertaining to watch with all the talent on the wing. I love watching Nikola Pekovic pound people under the rim without ever seeming to jump. Rubio continues to be a mystery for better and for worse. But, youth gets hammered in the NBA.
 Utah Jazz:
We’ll miss you, Andris.
Also mildly interesting.
How this team expects to compete without Andris Biedrins is a total and utter mystery. In less exciting news, the Jazz drafted an Aussie phenom and matched the Hornet’s restricted offer to Gordon Hayward. Still, someone will be charged with taking Biedrins’ place. It will be a difficult task for new Jazz coach (frantically googling “Utah Jazz new head coach”) Quin Snyder!!! Â He has great hair.
I’m not Tyrone Corbin!
Additions:Â Dante Exum (Rookie)Â Trevor Booker (Washington), Carrick Felix (Cleveland), Steve Novak (Toronto). Jack Cooley!!!
Subtractions: Diante Garrett (Toronto), Richard Jefferson (Dallas), John Lucas III (Boston via Cleveland), Erik Murphy (Boston via Cleveland), Brandon Rush (Golden State), Malcolm Thomas (Boston via Cleveland), Marvin Williams (Charlotte) Andris Biedrins!!!
Storylines:
1. Full disclosure: I love Rudy Gobert. His game against Spain might have been the most entertaining thing about the FIBA World Cup. Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter will be less boring to watch with Gobert suited up beside them.
2. The law firm of Burke and Burks is likely going to make it difficult for Exum to see extended playing time in his first year. I think the rookie guard will end up being a good player, but agent, Rob Pelinka deserves some kind of award for work he has done inflating Exum’s profile. You may remember Pelinka from 2012. He was the genius that moved Dion Waiters all the way to number 4 overall.
Cavs Championship threat level: -2
No analysis needed.
Prediction:Â 21-61. There is some good talent on this team, but not nearly enough shooting. Exum averages fewer than 20 MPG and is prematurely called a bust.
nate agree with Denver always being inticing but always turning up being average ( being in the western conference doesn’t help ) with that in mind do the cavs still pursue Mosgov —could be the true missing link
The NBA has divisions? Who’d a thunk it.
Your first Minnesota local tidbit: Was a big story in the local paper on Sunday about a training regimen some of the Wolves went through that included Anthony Bennett (but not Wiggins, interestingly). It included a shirtless picture of Bennett and Shabazz Muhammad. The Gum Drop Bear moniker can officially be dropped. AB is SOLID, without an ounce of fat to be seen by the naked eye. If Bennett doesn’t take a leap this year, it will be because he’s bad at basketball (i’d say unlikely), or because Flip Saunders is incapable of developing him properly (quite likely). But it… Read more »
Flip developed KG straight out of high school. If there’s one thing that guy CAN do, it’s develop young players.
And developed no one else. I think you can give KG the credit there, not Flip.
Perhaps, though he didn’t exactly have a ton of great young players to work with. He certainly does now, at any rate. So he’ll prove it one way or the other.
I think that AB was DNP-CD in a Wolves game the other day. What’s up with that?
I don’t think Denver will trade either of its centers, because JaVale McGee has never been capable of playing big minutes. He just tires himself out too easily. His ideal usage is around 20 minutes per game. I also have a hard time envisioning the Spurs being the same sort of threat that they were last season. That chip on their shoulder just isn’t there anymore, and they’re not young and talented enough to coast. My gut tells me that the West will go down to the Thunder vs the Clippers. Who’s Wiggins again? Nah, he’ll be great, but probably… Read more »
Nuggets seem awful. Where are they going? Are they just going to be mediocre forever? Agree that the Thunder are one team that could really hurt the Cavs. Fortunately, they’re so cheap, they won’t make any moves to put them over the top if they need to.
Nuggets badly need a trade to get a great big man or wing. If Nurkic and Harris show promise, they’re going to have a huge logjam. They were great 2 years ago in stretches where Gallo played 4, but that would leave only one spot for Mozgov, Faried, Hickson, McGee, Arthur, and Nurkic. I think they have more talent than a team like Portland, but they need to figure out how to get them on the court together. They almost have to cut Hickson, I’d think. It’d be insane to drop that money into Faried, then continue have him split… Read more »
Yuck. We do not want or need Hickson. He’s been pretty horrible is whole career.
Agree. He might add some depth at the big, but I would prefer Kirk and Amundson. The only way I would bring him in is if there is a long term injury to a big. Do I recall Hickson having teammate issues in the past? I might have dreamed that.
The fact is, the Cavs are really strong as is. Sure, a top center or wing would be a nice addition, but no team has everything. As it stands, the are in a position grab any decent players that become available. Hickson might not be the one to grab.
The Thunder is the only team in the NBA that I think has a chance against this Cavs team. Westbrook and Durant can get hot and play with anyone, including the Cavs.
I don’t think they’ll beat the Cavs, but they are the only team that has a chance. Barring injuries to Leb, Love, or Irving of course.
Considering the Spurs can decimate any defence thrown at them – even top 2/3 I would think they too have a chance. The Spurs are always the same and some years lose round 1 / 2 others they win. Kawhi developing into a star is worrying to me cause Parker will eat Kyrie alive. Not saying they’ll beat us but the Spurs can never be discounted particularly when they contain one of the 2 players alive who can legitimately contain LeBron in a playoff series. I too fear the Thunder but with Brooks running things I never fear them quite… Read more »
Lebron scored like 30 per game and was widely considered the best player on the court during that finals. Kawhi’s a great player, but I think his impact is overblown.
The Spurs came out with something to prove last year, and almost lost in the first round, anyway. OKC has also historically been like kryptonite to them, but they lucked out with an Ibaka calf injury at just the right time.
Yep. Plus the Spurs Big 3 is older now and making it to three straight Finals is difficult.
Not saying we will play them or lose to them – but to not even consider them to have a chance of beating us is naïve.
I think the winner of the West, no matter who it is, has a great shot to win it all. I just think that the Spurs have a far greater challenge to win the West than a lot of people seem to realize. If the Spurs manage to come out of the West, they’ll be battle tested and have a great shot to repeat. But the “Spurs or Cavs” nonsense I see a lot of people spout is just that, nonsense. “West or Cavs” would be more appropriate. The “inevitable” team USA vs Spain this summer would be a good… Read more »
The Cavs will easily win the East. The Bulls aren’t nearly talented enough. Their best player, Rose, couldn’t beat out our 3rd best player in Irving.
As for the Spurs. They were great in the Finals last year. But they didn’t exactly steamroll opponents in the playoffs. They’ll have a hard time getting back. Even if they do, the superior athleticism and talent of the Cavs should make it a 5 or 6 game series.
The only team I am remotely worried about is the Thunder because they have two players who at their best are unstoppable.
It’s a long time until the playoffs. Under normal circumstances I’d take the Cavs every time, but nobody can possibly say with all certainty what will happen between now and then. If everything goes wrong for the Cavs and right for the Bulls, the Bulls could absolutely win a playoff series. “What could possibly go wrong?” Plenty. It’s safe to say that more could go wrong for the Bulls, though. The Cavs definitely have the odds in their favor, but those odds are definitely NOT 1:0. It was absolutely inconceivable for the Lakers with Shaq, Kobe, Malone, and Payton to… Read more »
I basically agree with db, who knows what can go wrong? But two disclaimers: I don’t agree about that Lakers team. I was not the least bit surprised they lost to the Pistons, they were falling apart. Also, the year LA had the Dwightmare: Before the season the talking heads were all predicting a near undefeated season. I and many others said “not so fast”: KB is an egotistical gunner, DH is a head case with crybaby tendencies, SN is way past prime, and the coach was MB. How is that going to fit together? The Cavs have great depth.… Read more »
That’s fair, Raoul. I wasn’t really high on the Dwightmare Lakers, either. And the Lakers losing to the Pistons was conceivable at the beginning of the finals, and reading back my comment I didn’t present my point quite the way I had intended. My point was supposed to read that back in the preseason, looking at their respective rosters, nobody would ever think that the Pistons would to them in the finals. I think the Cavs will be great this year, but nothing is set in stone. Here’s one example of a nightmare scenario. Something happens to David Blatt, God… Read more »
I realy don’t find the Thunder all that scary to be perfectly honest. I have faith that their coach will continue to suck. I have faith that Kyrie and Westbrook effectively cancel each other out (they’ll get their.) I have faith that Lebron and Durant cancel each other out (same as above.) I have greater faith that Love will out play Ibaka. Love being an elite PF shooter means that Ibaka can’t roam the paint to swat shots…which opens things up for the rest of our offense. I don’t know who they start at SG…but I like Dion’s chances to… Read more »
True. Injuries are probably the only thing that can stop us. I was just saying that of all the teams, the Thunder scare me the most. But yeah, on an absolute scale they aren’t scary. Because no team is scary for a team with this much freaking talent.