5 on 5: 2014 Tipoff

One more day! The NBA tipped off last night, and the Cavs tip off tomorrow. Our summer of waiting is almost over. In that spirit, we asked five Cavs the Bloggers to answer five questions about what this team will look like to start the season.

Tipoff is Thursday! What are you most excited about as the Cavs open the regular season?

Cory Hughey:  I look forward to the inverse of LeBron’s first return to Cleveland with Miami. The emotion will gather like condensation on the outside of a cold beer mug. For those fortunate enough to be there, they will share a two-hour moment that transcends normal consciousness with 20,000 strangers. Instead of venom, there will be love. Instead of Samardo Samuels there will be Kevin Love.

Ben Werth: I am most excited to see David Blatt’s regular season schemes. We have seen various aspects of his flowing offense, but he has clearly saved some set plays. The real schematic difference will be seen on the defensive end. Blatt has hinted at pressure in Summer League and the preseason, but I am incredibly curious to see how he will implement that ball pressure in games that count.

David Wood: I cannot wait until the first transition alley-oop that involves two passes. I’m talking about a double alley-oop. It’s so basic, but that is something I have never witnessed the Cavs do. I hope it’s Matthew Dellavedova who gets the steal that initiates the break. He then tosses the ball to Dion Waiters who then passes to Tristan Thompson for the dunk. That’s the b-side of a double alley-oop vinyl, so it’s even more exclusive/awesome than the Kyrie Irving to The King to K. Love oop sequence on the a-side.

Tom Pestak: The excitement of real, meaningful, basketball. I think I was lying to myself a month ago when I said I just wanted to enjoy the ride. I’m going to be acting like a child watching the highlight plays. Step-back 3s, ankle-breaking crossovers, fast-break alley-oops. Also looking forward to “The Dion Waiters Zone.” Mostly, though – LeBron. Dug my jersey out of the deep, long-term storage (turns out I never actually did donate all my old LeBron garb).

Nate Smith: That opening night crowd… Who cares if everyday folks are cashing out their 401Ks for tickets to this game? That crowd is going to be frenzied. And when they announce LeBron’s name in the starting lineup,  men will weep. Dogs will howl. Women will go into labor. And the first basket? It might be the most exciting opening night moment in American sports history.

The Cavs have 15 games before December, including a four game road trip after the home opener. How do you think they will start out? Wins prediction?

Tom: 9-6.  It’s going to be a bit rocky.  Teams are going to trying to get big and physical with them and until they find their groove they will be very exploitable defensively.  I don’t expect their offense to be firing on all cylinders until after Christmas.

David: The Cavs are going to start out as an offensively gifted unit that relies on scoring the ball in order to have enough time to set up their defense. If they can’t score, teams will be able to exploit hurried rotations in transition to get open threes and driving lanes. The Bulls, Spurs, Wizards, and Pelicans could slow down Blatt’s offense. However, the Cavs still will go 12-3 through October and November. They will be blown out in the Nuggets road game on November 7th because they will end of their first four game road trip in the Mile High City.

Nate: Of their first 15 games, only seven are against good opponents. If they can win four of those and throw in a couple random losses (Anthony Davis could destroy them), that puts them at 10-5, a pretty good clip. They’re going to have problems with defensive rotations to start out, and there will be some growing pains as the bench tries to figure out an identity (other than Waiters=shoot). But they’re going to pour it on some teams.

Cory Hughey: You’d think the Commodore 64 that makes the NBA schedule would be able to avoid back to backs and lengthy time off.  In the first month, the Cavs will have four back to backs and a pair of three continuous days off in a row. I’ll go with an optimistic 12-3 record and their loses coming at the hands of Chicago, Portland and San Antonio.

Ben Werth: Many people anticipate a rough start from the Cavaliers. They are simply trying to curb enthusiasm. The Cavs are likely to be close to unbeatable at home this season. The crowd will be in too big of a frenzy to allow any huge drops of energy. Good effort combined with the talent level on this team will prevent too great a slide. There will be no 2010 Miam Heat hatred or confusion of roles. They will get off to a good start and continue to improve. 12-3.

What “wrinkles” are we going to see from David Blatt’s offensive and defensive schemes that we may have only glimpsed at in the pre-season?

Ben: Kevin Love and LeBron are likely to get more post touches than we have seen. I certainly don’t mean to say that the Cavs will clear one side of the floor to dump it down to a big man. Instead, we will see much more of the big on big screen action that has lead to Andy’s scoring barrage. That action is really designed to establish deep post position for Love before the ball swing. Preseason defenses have stuck to Love and left Varejao wide open to flash to the middle. Allowing Love to catch deep on the block will actually seem like a good idea after Andy drops 15 first quarter points off layups and running hooks. Or then again, maybe it won’t. That is why this offense is predicted to be nearly unstoppable. We haven’t seen LeBron involved in that action much as a big. He has mostly been on the perimeter feeding the post or the flash to the middle. Look for him to switch roles in crunch time.

Nate: A lot of match-up zone. Blatt’s toyed with it in the pre-season, and you can tell he’s itching to use it when the scores actually count. This could cover a lot of TT’s deficiencies, and the Cavs are probably good enough rebounders that they can get away with the rebounding disadvantages of a zone. Also, when not zoning, expect random hard traps and full court pressure from Kyrie and Delly. Also, I’d count on a deep rotation at least early to keep guys fresh and for Blatt to figure out who can actually play. On offense? Early post entries in transition to LeBron and Love when the fast break isn’t there. Otherwise pick-and roll with a weak wing screen (saw that a lot in pre-season), and a lot more high post action than we’ve seen. Who knows? This team can do anything. Blatt probably can’t sleep at night from giddiness.

Cory: We’ll see plenty of weak side fill shooters sliding in position behind the roll man on a pick and rolls for an open three point shot away from the focus of the defense right off the rip.

Tom: Strange lineups, zone defense, full-court press…all kinds of stuff.  I fully expect Blatt to be constantly absorbing data points – what he witnesses in practice and on the court, reports from his scouting and analytics departments, monitoring minutes and overall health – he’s going to be like a sponge, and he’s going to try all sorts of things.  I don’t think his personality is going to be like his predecessor, Mike Brown, who erred on the side of consistency and establishing the fundamentals.  I expect David Blatt’s experimental approach to have potentially detrimental effects on certain players, but it’s time for the Cavs to collectively grow up, and I have confidence that the adults in the room (LeBron, James Jones, Mike Miller) will reinforce his messages.

David: Blatt will start trapping a lot more as the season goes on. The Cavs don’t have a big guy that can zone up or hedge and recover on the pick and roll, so it makes sense to let other players slide over and attempt to protect the paint or grab a steal if otherwise the opposition gets into the restricted area almost automatically. Blatt will also play a lot of small ball lineups that allow everyone to switch on picks to keep the lane safe.

Does this team have an “Achilles heel?” Will other teams be able to exploit it?

David: If a team can really keep the Cavs off the boards, the Wine & Gold will lose one of their major advantages defensively and offensively. The other area they’ll struggle in is pick and roll defense. Teams that can run the PnR efficiently could kill the Cavs and not expend a lot of energy doing so. Unfortunately for Blatt’s men, the Eastern conference has the Bulls. Rose can utilize picks, and Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, and Taj Gibson can battle the Cavs rebounders to a draw. Fortunately, that might be all the East has.

Cory: The final preseason game against Memphis is a good example of the kind of team that the Cavs supercharged offense could have trouble with initially until they get more comfortable in half court sets. If the opponent can dictate a slower pace and a physical game, the Cavs could have problems. Cleveland is a finesse team all the way.

Nate: Age… Well, age and individual defense. The Cavs really have three “plus” defenders: Andy, Delly, and LeBron. To compound that, Delly is barely a plus, and LeBron coasts a lot. They have three guys that have to care on defense: Kyrie, Dion, and Love (I haven’t seen it so far). The bench is a mess: Marion gets by on reputation more than ability these days, and Miller can’t guard anyone. It’s going to take effort and intelligence to get past their individual shortcomings. If the Cavs stop caring on defense, they will lose games. Kyrie, Delly, and Dion have to stay engaged and communicate as guards on the pick-and-roll. The p/r schemes were a disaster in preseason and teams will try to defeat the Cavs by using penetration to get Cavs in foul trouble until Cleveland proves they can stop it.

Tom: An injury to Anderson Varejao could really throw things out of whack. He’s going to be the Delonte West of this team – that glue guy that just fits perfectly with every other player and uses his lack of attention to be highly efficient. Defensively he’s going to allow them to match up with with bigs while playing “small” offensively. Outside of major injuries, their Achilles heel is going to be defense – I’m not even so much concerned about rim protection – you can scheme your way out of rim protection. The Bobcats went from 30th in D rating to 5th AFTER adding defensive sieve Al Jefferson. The Cavs had no rim protection last year and were above average in not allowing points in the paint. (Of course, they also schemed their way to allowing the most 3-point attempts in the league…) But their backcourt is so weak defensively and just does not stop dribble penetration. It causes massive breakdowns. Opposing coaches are going to put Irving in a pick n roll on EVERY possession.

Ben: Anderson Varejao must be healthy for the playoffs. He has been the best Cavalier by far during LeBron’s Cleveland sabbatical. The “Big Three” narrative is catchy, but Andy is more irreplaceable than Kyrie on this squad. He is the team’s second best two way player at this point. Like Boris Diaw, Andy thrives playing with smart teammates. The NBA is about to be reminded of his worth. If the Cavs were forced to play a Finals series without Andy’s defensive and (severely) underrated offensive game, they would be in trouble.

What will be this team’s biggest strength? What will they build their identity around?

Nate: Rebounding and pushing the ball even after made baskets. They have four great outlet passers (Love, Andy, LeBron, and Delly) and guards and wings who can score one-on-one in transition or hit trailers. There should rarely be “walk-it-up” moments. Also, crunch time execution. This team is smart enough and proficient enough that they should be Spurs-like in their ability to close out quarters and games. Defensively? Don’t foul, help-help-help, and turn that defense into offense. The defense won’t be pretty, but if there’s effort there and they make teams make extra passes, they should be fine most nights. Also, depth. Cavs have the best top six in the league, and their top nine might be pretty sharp too. The “big three” narrative is stupid (especially since Kyrie and Love haven’t proven they’re better all-around players than Andy yet). “All for one,” yo.

Tom: Devastating amount of shooting, individual scoring (half court safety valves) and, at times, overwhelming transition play. While I think the reports of the Cavs athleticism are overstated, they are highly skilled. They have such a potent combination of slashers and 3-point shooters – they will be a “pick your poison” team offensively. Their identity should be unselfishness. They more they play for each other, the more they rely on their depth, the more they make the extra pass – the farther they will go. The second they start to rely too much on the individual brilliance of Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love – they will have fallen into a trap. (They could get away with relying on LeBron’s brilliance all the way to the Finals but they should manage his usage for the long haul).

Ben: NBA people around the league are terrified of the Cavalier’s rebounding potential. Transition buckets off of dominant rebounding MUST be this team’s identity. It will be an interesting combination. The defense won’t need to sell out looking for steals in order to fuel transition opportunities. They can play solid defense, grab the board and hit a streaking Waiters on the fly, or give it to Kyrie for an early offense opportunity. Love’s passing opens the floor for subsequent driving lanes. The overall pace should be pretty quick even though the team should also have feared half-court sets. I expect a well-coached, intelligent team that understands how to best utilize its immense talent.

David: This Cavs team is going to be all about rebounding. Kevin Love and Sideshow Bob make it so teams get one shot an offensive possession and will be listening to Eminem before games for motivation: “You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow / this opportunity comes once in a lifetime, yo.” No teams will want to crash the boards when the odds are that the Cavs can out-rebound them, and Love can launch a full-court pass for an easy basket. Offensively, if the Cavs aren’t playing in transition, any missed shot has a really good chance of being picked up again. The Cavs will score often and lead the league in points per possession.

Cory: It’s hard to find an area where they won’t have an advantage on offense. They have multiple players who can beat their man off the dribble and facilitate. They have a gaggle of dangerous outside shooters. The passing ability of a Lebron, Love, Irving, Waiters and Varejao lineup might be the most dangerous five man unit in the league. They will get second and third shots on offense because of their ability to dust up boards.