Preview: Potential First Round Match-Ups

First off, if you haven’t yet already, make sure you check out David’s excellent recap of last night’s division clinching win for the Cavs over the Bucks.

And with that victory, the Cavs have also officially locked up the second seed in the Eastern Conference, giving them more than a week to finally take a few moments to rest and start thinking about the first round of the playoffs.

Normally, with four games left to play, it would be fairly apparent who they might be facing in that first round. However, there are still no less than five potential foes in the mix to be the first opponent for the Cavs in their return to the playoffs after a four year drought. Some may have better odds than others of winding up in the seventh spot, but we’ll break them all down with impunity, and according to threat level they pose to the Cavs…

MILWAUKEE BUCKS (Threat Level: Annoying Kid Brother)

You know that at some point in the future these guys are going to probably grow up to be a real headache. But for now, they’re more of a minor annoyance due to their size and quickness. There’s not a high probability they will face the Cavs in round one unless they really fall down over the final week and have to run and call for mom.

After a fairly lengthy run of good play that put them on the Wizards’ doorstep for the five spot not all that long ago (they actually almost caught them toward the end of February), Jason Kidd now has his squad rallying just to try and hold onto the sixth seed. Since being a high-water mark eight games over .500 on 2/20, the Bucks have gone just 8-17 in the last month and a half. Maybe not un-coincidentally, this swoon was in direct correlation to the trade the Bucks pulled off on 2/19, shipping out starting PG Brandon Knight in exchange for Michael Carter Williams (plus Miles Plumlee and Tyler Ennis from the Suns).

While flipping your best scorer, passer and leader at the trade deadline is a bit of a head-scratcher, if it had translated to more wins during the playoff push, it might have been seen as a stroke of brilliance by this young Bucks team. At the moment though (at least in the short term), the move seems to have backfired on them. They still have some amazing length at nearly every position with nobody in their starting five under 6’6 (in fact they only have two guys in their rotation under 6’6 with OJ Mayo (6’5) and 6’3 Jerryd Bayless), which helps them defend, force lots of turnovers and rack up a ton of steals. However, they really do seem to miss the offensive motor that Knight provided.

On the off chance that these Bucks do get caught by the surging Nets or Celts, the Cavs would need to find ways to counteract their length and athleticism which makes them a tough team to score on (unless you can get hot from the perimeter like LBJ did with his side-step three to ice last night’s game). While they’re near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency (tied for 24th with the Pacers at 100.5 ppg) they are near the top on the defensive end (third behind the Warriors and Spurs at 99.7). With Knight, a healthy Jabari Parker and a mentally sound Larry Sanders, this team may have been a more formidable challenger, and potentially higher seed.

After their tough loss last night against the Cavs (which gave the season series victory to the Cavs 3-1), they still have two scraps against playoff hopefuls Brooklyn and Boston, but peppered in-between are contests with the cellar-dwelling Knicks and Sixers. Predicted finish: 41-41 for the sixth seed against the Bulls or Raptors.

BROOKLYN NETS (Threat Level: Wily Old Guy at a Pickup Game)

While several of these guys are on the downside of their respective careers, they still have enough in the tank (and youngsters to prop them up) to keep things close and make a run if you underestimate them. You just can’t make the mistake of taking things easy on them and their collection of knee-pads and sport goggles, otherwise they’ll cherry-pick and three ball you from downtown when you least expect it.

To say the Nets have had an up and down season at times is a mild understatement. After wheezing their way through the first two months, they finally clawed their way back to even at the beginning of January. They then proceeded to go 2-12 the rest of the month, and as recently as March 11, looked lottery bound as they fell a season worst 13 games under .500 after a loss to the Heat. What a difference the last few weeks have made, as the old boys from Brooklyn have ripped off 10 wins in 14 games to put themselves right back in the thick of things. The Nets can attribute much of their late season success to the sneaky virtual steal of Thaddeus Young when they threw another resident geezer, KG, to the Wolves at the trade deadline for the versatile big man. Thad has brought energy and scoring to the team, while also opening things up for Brook Lopez to roam the paint and ramp up his own scoring output. And speaking of Bro-Lo, he’s been Brooklyn’s most consistent player this season, leading the team in points (17.1), rebounds (7.3) and blocks (1.7), and was just named EC Player of the Week after averaging 20 and 10 in the Nets’ last four games.

If the Cavs wind up having to play them (and it’s looking more and more likely that they might), they need only go back to March 25th and the loss they experienced at the hands of these rejuvenated Nets for reference on how effective they can still be. In that game, Brooklyn (even without Thad Young) not only got a vintage game from Joe Johnson, but also some well-rounded bench scoring from Bojan Bogdanovic, Alan Anderson and two old Cavs Jarrett Jack and Earl Clark. And even though the Nets have been sub-par overall defensively this year, they were able to turn up their effort to make things difficult on the road-weary Cavs (finally recording their first win in four tries).

In a series, the Cavs will have a marked advantage talent-wise, but they’ll have to be wary of some of the fading Nets stars. Deja-fuego games from Jo-Jo and DWill could go a long way in helping the Nets make things interesting, although still not all that perilous. What could make things more dangerous is if Moz has trouble with Lopez. It will be key for guys like KLove and TT to not only occupy Thad Young but also help out on Bro-Lo.

After a tough loss to the Hawks last night (which snapped the Nets’ five game home winning streak) three of their remaining four games are at home, but feature three more against playoff bound teams (Chicago, Washington and Milwaukee) before ending against Orlando. Predicted finish: 39-43 to grab the seven seed and a first round meeting with the Cavs.

BOSTON CELTICS (Threat Level: Green Zero on Roulette Wheel)

The Celtics have the look of a tourist in Vegas who gets on a lucky streak at the tables then accidentally stumbles into the high-roller room, looks around and wonders how the heck they got there. After gambling away his one remaining all-star level player in Rajon Rondo at the trade deadline, Danny Ainge decided to go all in with this group of relative youngsters.

Like the Nets and the Pacers, it took a while for the Celtics to really get their season in gear (the benefits of playing in the EC). Through early February, they were as many as 15 games under .500, and often looked like they were about to cash out and try their luck in the lottery. Then, after a particularly bad beat by the Cavaliers (110-79 on March 3rd), they turned things around and went on a 7-1 hot streak with impressive wins over New Orleans, Miami and Memphis. Despite running into a cooler in late March, they’ve beaten the odds to win four of their last five against rivals for the last playoff slots (including a wild overtime win over the Raptors on Saturday).

Boston doesn’t do a lot of things particularly well, although they do share the ball at a pretty good clip (fifth in the NBA in assists with 24.3 per game). Since divesting themselves of Rondo as well as leading scorer Jeff Green, Avery Bradley and newcomer Isaiah Thomas have taken over the scoring load. Thomas has been particularly hot since he rolled into beantown, averaging 19.7 ppg in just over 26 mpg (including going off for a season high 34 against the Pistons last night), and taking Boston’s pick and roll game to a whole new level. They’ve also had solid seasons from their big men Jared Sullinger (who leads the team in rebounds, Kelly Olynyk and (former Cav) Tyler Zeller. Marcus Smart rounds out an athletic and interesting young core that should only get deeper next year.

If they do wind up getting lucky (unlucky?) enough to play the Cavs in the first round, it’s not likely the croupier spins the wheel exactly right for them to do any real damage. While they’ve only played the Cavs twice this year so far, they have lost both and the most recent by a large spread. It will be interesting to see how the Cavs decide to play things in the final two meetings (which come almost back to back this weekend). Will they control the board and give the Celtics an advantage in grabbing either the seventh or final spot at the table, or will they continue to pour it on? (There have already been intimations by LeBron that he may sit out both games against Boston which may certainly increase their odds). However, it will also cloud the true picture of how the teams match up since half of their head-to-head contests will be potentially without key players.

Luck will play a large part in how the Celtics finish out the season. On paper, it looks pretty daunting with roadies against the Cavs and Bucks, plus two home games against the Cavs and the Raptors. However, after dispatching the Pistons last night, the rest of these opponents (particularly the Cavs since they clinched the two seed with their victory over the Bucks) may not have much left to play for and could start resting regulars. In other words… the clovers could get really, really lucky (like hitting the green zero on the roulette wheel lucky). Still hard to see them beating out the Nets and Heat though. Predicted finish: 38-44 in a hard-luck, virtual dead heat with the Heat that Miami wins due to a 3-1 head-to-head record. 

MIAMI HEAT (Threat Level: Angry Ex-Girlfriend)

Despite losing Chris Bosh for half the season (and LeBron forever), the Heat still have some talented players. Their biggest weapon against the Cavs though might be the mental sway they still may hold over LeBron, especially when he’s on their turf in South Beach. Sure, he’s mostly gotten over them, but they’re still capable of doing some damage. They also probably still have some of his stuff at their place that they can throw out into the street before smashing the headlights on his Kia K900 sedan.

Miami has gone through some tough stretches in their first post-LBJ season, mostly because they had a tough time keeping the two remaining members of the “Heatles” healthy and on the court. Bosh’s season ended during the All-Star Break when he had to be hospitalized for blood clots in his lungs. Up until that point, he was averaging 21 ppg and seven rpg, while shooting 46% and making his tenth all-star team. Dwayne Wade also missed 20 games due to various injuries and issues, although he also has put up solid numbers (21.6 ppg/4.8 apg/3.5 rpg/48% shooting) and also made his tenth all-star appearance. He recently went on an offensive tear averaging almost 25 ppg in March to keep the Heat afloat in the race for the last two playoff spots. However, Miami has stumbled over the last week or so, dropping four straight (including one to the Cavs where DWade had another injury scare) before righting the ship for a moment with a win over Charlotte on Tuesday.

The biggest pleasant surprise this year for the Heat has been the out of nowhere play of Hassan Whiteside who has rocketed from virtual obscurity to one of the premiere rebounders and shot-blockers in the league. Whiteside has put up gaudy numbers (11.2 ppg/9.7 rpg/2.5 bpg) in limited games (44) and minutes (23.0), and has a slightly better PER than King James himself (26.33 to 26.11). But even though the big man has done things like becoming just the fourth player in the last 25 years with at least 12 points, 12 rebounds and 12 blocks in a game (the first player since Manute Bol with 12 blocks off the bench in 25 minutes or less), he has also been prone to hot-headedness and was suspended a game for hitting Kelly Olynyk in a loss.

It’s no surprise that the Heat is the other team that many expect could finally lock up the seven seed and create a tantalizing (for the national media at least) showdown with their old flame LeBron and the Cavs. The Cavs have split the season series (both teams winning twice on their home floor), and have had extenuating circumstances each time they’ve played the Heat in Miami. With Whiteside manning the rim and Coach Spolstra dialing up the team defense, the Heat can still apply pressure when they choose. And, even though he doesn’t bring much to the defensive side, another wild card on the offensive side of the ball is newcomer Goran Dragic. The combo of him and a healthy DWade could provide just enough scoring to be dangerous if they can drag the Cavs into a more defensive struggle. The Cavs will have to apply some of their own pressure to threaten the jilted Heat to go away and lose their number. And new partner Kyrie might have to ride in and provide an emotional rescue of sorts for LBJ.

Miami has four games remaining, with two tougher ones against playoff teams who are still jockeying for the third seed (Chicago and Toronto), as well as two likely easier ones against the Sixers and Magic. It’s hard to imagine DWade not willing this team into the playoffs, especially if there’s a chance he could try and torch his old friend. Predicted finish: 38-44 and barely edging out Boston and Indiana for the eighth and final seed and a date with the Hawks.

INDIANA PACERS (Threat Level: Cornered/Wounded Animal)

The Pacers might have been short-handed all year and backed into the proverbial corner due to injury, but with the return of Paul George, they’re ready to fight back even harder. They’re certainly not above clawing, scratching and hard fouling their way to any victory they can scrounge.

At the end of January, Indiana was nearly left for dead at the side of the road. They were a full 15 games under .500 and it looked like a completely lost year between the catastrophic Paul George injury and Lance Stephenson defection. But just when they were about to get the long dirt nap, along came the Cavs and their season-long 12 game winning streak to poke a stick at them. It turned out to be just what the Pacers needed as they came back from a 13 point deficit in the third quarter and go on an offensive barrage in the fourth to snap the Cavs’ streak 103-99. This set them on a path to win 13 of their next 15 (including another win against the Cavs) and scratch their way back to relevance in the EC playoff race. Though they had some bumps in the road in the latter part of March, they’ve still managed to take down other playoff hopefuls Charlotte and Miami (as well as the hapless Knicks) to keep their hopes alive.

George Hill, David West, Roy Hibbert, CJ Miles and the surprising Rodney Stuckey have all taken their turns carrying the load for the resourceful Pacers, while the rabid defensive schemes of Frank Vogel have kept Indiana among the top 10 defenses in the league. They have also been the second best rebounding team in the Eastern Conference behind only the Bulls, just a hair ahead of the Cavs. They’d been hearing that Paul George would be rejoining them for the playoff run for months now, and it finally happened against the Heat on Sunday. PG-13 showed a bit of expected rust, but still hit a couple of threes, scoring 13 points in 15 minutes of action (and followed it up with 10 points in 16 minutes against the Knicks last night).

The Pacers have a few teams to get through if they want to play the Cavs in round one, but if it comes to pass, they might pose the most legitimate threat of the bunch given their physical style, tenacity and the return of a healthy Paul George. The Cavs split the season series with the Pacers (again with each team winning both times on their home floor as with the Heat), and the last three games featured some grueling and physical play. Hibbert is one of the slower true centers in the league that Moz can match up well with, and LeBron should have the edge even on a rejuvenated George. The big issue will be the Cavs ability to close out the Pacers perimeter shooters. Even with the additional challenge of this feral Indiana team, the Cavs should still prevail without too much trouble, although it could take a larger physical toll.

The Pacers have a somewhat rocky short road ahead. It started deceptively easy last night with a laugher over the Knicks (although no joke to Chris Copeland who was injured after being stabbed outside a nightclub in NYC early Wednesday morning), but gets tougher with a date at Detroit before two more that matter against the Thunder and Wizards. The season ends with one last trip to Memphis, although the Grizz may be hibernating for the playoffs by then. Predicted finish: 37-45 and limping into the back half of the lottery with dreams of a healthy PG-13 for next season. 

[Editor’s Note: Before last night’s games, the Charlotte Hornets were technically also still the mix as a sixth possible opponent, but after back-to-back losses to the Heat and the Raps (even though they aren’t mathematically eliminated from the seventh seed), they would have to run the table and get a rube goldbergian series of losses from other teams losing in order to pull off a playoff miracle. With four games remaining, against the Hawks, Pistons, Rockets and Raps again, it just doesn’t look good. Predicted finish: 35-47 with a whole lot of off-season personnel decisions to make.]

With four of these five teams within a game of each other, the next seven days should provide a chaotically entertaining end to the season in the Eastern Conference (I changed my mind on these predicted finishes repeatedly… and I’m still not sure).

It’s theoretically possible that it could all just end up in a massive four-way tie for the last two spots, and the NBA will be forced to dust off and utilize various arcane tie-breaker rules (or maybe best two out of three in rochambeau… in which case it would be best to bet on the luck of the Celtics).

In any event, none of these teams seem like serious candidates to knock the Cavs out in the first round, but several of them could provide an interesting challenge.