Five on Five: First Round Edition

1. Which player with no playoff experience breaks out in the first round?

Ben: Anthony Davis. Too many national media members have slept on the best player of 2014-2015. While it is premature to officially name him “best player alive,” his regular season was historical. He is already in the conversation with LeBron, James Harden and healthy Kevin Durant. That’s the list. As a destructive two way force, his smooth movements give the impression that he is playing on ice. With that size, instinct, and soft jumper, I think he uses this series with the Warriors as his coming out party. After a slow start to game one, Davis brought the Pelicans back to make the fourth quarter interesting. His 35 points came late in the game, but sometimes late game success in a blowout can lead to good things the following game. The series may still be short, but the NBA world will be prepared for Anthony Davis ascension to league’s top player in 2015-2016.

David: As a Cavs fan, I’m obligated to say Kyrie Irving. Fortunately though, Kyrie is pretty dang good. He owns the two highest scoring games for any player this season. He had 57 in an overtime win against the Spurs and 55 in a win against Portland. And, I’d venture to say that Kyrie is one of the best players in the league at stopping runs. While recapping this season, I noticed he will just score a three and follow it up with an impossible layup at least twice a game to demoralize opposing teams. Irving averages 1.09 points per isolation play, which is better than James Harden, who leads the league in those plays. Irving might be the best iso man in the league right now.

Robert: This question should have begun “Aside from Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis…” because those two are pretty much locks to shine in their first run in the playoffs. Beyond those two, I think Bulls rookie forward Nikola Mirotic will have some shining moments for the Bulls. For the sake of Cavs fans everywhere, though, let’s hope most of those moments come in the first round against the Bucks.

Cory: Anthony Davis has justifiably been pegged as the next best player in the world. Kyrie Irving has been selling shoes, pop (soda), and cereal for seasons. If the Bulls are going to have any chance of beating CaVoltron in the second round, Jimmy Butler must have a career defining series. He posted a higher TS% (.583) than Kawhi Leonard, and his DWS of 3.0 is only a tenth of a point below Klay Thompson. Butler was drafted 30th overall in 2011, and will be receiving a max-contract offer in restricted free agency in three months.

Nate: From today? Looks like Kyrie Irving. Boston has a great set of defensive guards, and Irving smoked them all. His ability to switch from on-the-ball to off-the-ball basically makes it like having to guard two different players. He was scoring everywhere: drives, wing, post-ups, pull-ups, catch-and-shoot, at the line. His defense was a little dodgy, especially in the first half. All the Cavs guards seemed way too happy to let guards go by them to the help with little resistance. No matter. National reputations are rarely built on guard defense (or Mike Conley would be properly recognized).

2. Which team is most likely to be swept?

Ben: As much as I love Brad Stevens as a coach and a character, his Celtic team must meet a Cleveland crowd that might make Warriors’ fans look tame. I don’t see how Boston can approach victory in the first two games of the series. LeBron will likely be rested for a difficult game three. If he dominates that game, the Celtics are simply left with a closeout game to avoid the sweep. The Cavaliers plan on playing for a championship. They will not want to waste energy by allowing a well coached, limited team push them to five games. The Celtics have a good future with their great young coach. But other than a tight game three, I don’t see a chance for victory.

David: The Pelicans have already lost one game, but I would have still picked them to be swept before that. The Pellies have the Brow and some nice complimentary guys like Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, and Jrue Holiday. If you play with this team on NBA 2k15, you can have people rage quitting in just one quarter. All you have to do is run pick and rolls with any person and Anthony Davis. Davis catches a lob or drops a mid-range shot. Monty Williams hasn’t realized this, and only one quarter of the Brow’s possession involve him setting a screen. Williams won’t figure out how to use his talent to pull a win off this series.

Robert: I still don’t think that the Celtics are going to take this “one game at home” everyone keeps talking about. I mean, maybe they do. But I think it’s just as possible that they get swept. The Boston players showed a lot of grit in Game 1, but I think there are things the Celtics did well that the Cavs will be able to figure out as the series goes along. So, I’ll head west and say that the New Orleans Pelicans will also not win a playoff game this year. The Golden State Warriors are just too good, too balanced, and defend at a level that is going to make it very difficult for any Pelican not named Anthony Davis to go off for the type of big game that New Orleans will need to compliment what will surely be an amazing individual series for Davis. Especially now that Tyreke Evans is banged up, does anyone really see a big Eric Gordon game or a Jrue Holiday game coming in the next three?

Cory: Oh, I’m tehhhhhbly sahhhhry. The Celtics overachieved by making the playoffs two years into their rebuild, but the Cavs will bust out the brooms at TD Garden on the 26th. I’ve always had a strange relationship with Boston sports. I legit rooted for them to defeat the evil empire Yankees at the turn of the millennium. After that they became the Yankees and I grew to dispise them which left me in a personal quandary. Jimmy (picture right), my closest friend in LA and the cat who made the elaborate lie about the Birdman track pants, is the sultan of Southie, and I found myself secretly rooting against his teams constantly. I was with him the night the Bruins won the cup, and while I was happy for him, I was completely burned out on Boston winning titles. I’ll forever be in debt to Jimmy for teaching me to play craps. No seriously, I’ll be in debt because of it.

Nate: New Orleans. I love the Brow, but with Tyreke Evans going down with a knee injury, and Jrue Holiday already being banged up, The Pelicans don’t have manpower to keep up with most talented backcourt in the NBA. The ever-gimpy Ben Gordon went 5-14 this last game, and Norris Cole went 3-10. ‘Nawlins only made it close because the Warriors took their foot off the gas. This series is over.

3. Which team is most likely to pull off an upset?

Ben: Milwaukee is really the only squad that is a true underdog with a chance. Most of the the West features match-ups that don’t really have clear favorites. While there is a small chance that the Nets could give the Hawks trouble with their size, the Bucks are the only underdog that could really give the favorite trouble in a seven game series. The Bulls struggle to score with certain lineups. The Bucks’ length up and down the lineup will make it tough for some the the high/low action that the Bulls love to run. The Greek Freak was in foul trouble for most of game one. If he can get some traction going forward and the Bulls injuries pile up, it could get interesting.

David: The Bucks are ready to upset the Bulls. Derrick Rose played outstanding in the first game, which helped the Bulls get the win. However, Derrick won’t be able to score 23 points every single game and will definitely have a stinker game. Rose is also pretty turnover prone. He was 71st in the league in turnover to assist ratio during the regular season. The Bucks are a long armed turnover making machine. If the Deer can capitalize on some turnovers, bus some fans down from Milwuakee to get a road win, and defend their home court, they could win this series.

Robert: Spurs over the Clippers would be an upset in seeding only. The middle clump of teams in the West finished so close to each other that a quality or talent gap doesn’t really go along with the team’s respective seed until you get down to the seventh seed (and really just the eighth, regardless of how uneven the Mavericks have been this season). Besides, the idea of the Spurs winning a playoff series just doesn’t shock anyone.

Also, Wizards over Raptors would technically be an upset, but those four/five matchups can usually go either way. Of the rest… hmmm. I give the Mavericks a punchers chance against the Rockets based on having the coaching advantage as well as having the not-having-Dwight-Howard advantage (which is similar to the not-having-Deron-Williams advantage — both players are just not winners and imagine that Brooklyn almost tried to build their franchise around both). It’s just tough to think that the team with the best player in the series in James Harden — and a darn good team around him — doesn’t get this first round win.

Nate: Would the Spurs really be an upset? I suppose Teamrankings and Numberfire favor the Clips, and so does homecourt, but I just see the Spurs as being the mentally tougher team. A lot of this series will come down to the “rovers” for each defense, Kawhi Leonard and DeAndre Jordan. Both these guys generate havok. Duncan and Splitter will have to keep DeAndre honest, and Reddick and the Clips wings will have to be potent enough on offense to keep Kawhi from roving too much. Ultimately, Jordan’s inability to hit free throws turns game seven for the Spurs…

Cory: The Spurs lethargic effort for three quarter that led to their loss against the Pelicans on the last day of the regular season dropped them from the second seed to the sixth. Sure the Clippers have home court in the series, but public opinion all season has been that the Spurs will make it to the conference finals or finals. In the preseason, I doubted that they could make three consecutive long post season runs. Parker is an injury waiting to happen. I just think it’s time which leads to…

4. Which team is most likely to be blown up after a first round exit?

Ben: The Bulls are in a strange position. Basically, short of a trip to the Finals, the team will be totally different next season. There is no shortage of rumors regarding Thib’s future there. The success of Nikola Mirotic has created a logjam in the frontcourt. I highly doubt that Noah, Gasol, and Gibson will all be back next season. Any trade involving players of that skill is likely to drastically change the roster. More than anything, the probable acquisition of coach Fred Hoiberg will spell change. Honorable mention to Dallas. The Mavericks only have a few guys tied up past this season. They will be a completely different team regardless of first round success.

David: The Clippers are on the chopping block. This team has never made it out of the first round in less than seven games with Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan. Something is going on with that core regardless of what all the positive stats say. Eventually, a team needs to just win quickly in the playoffs to make a statement. Furthermore, this team just has too many guys who scowl at the entire league. Having everyone hate you can eventually drag a team down instead of uniting them. Blake Griffin might have to go, and DeAndre Jordan might leave depending on what contract offers he gets in the offseason.

Robert: It won’t be by design, but if the Trailblazers get bounced by the Grizz and LaMarcus Aldridge decides to seek different pastures, it’s tough to see the Blazers going into next season with the exact same team minus their all-star big man. That would be a shame, since a healthy Blazers squad could win any matchup in these playoffs. I’m not saying they would have won it all, but that’s a very good team when everyone’s suited up rather than… well, sitting there in suits.

Nate: The Mavericks? I can’t see Cuban being happy with this year, especially with all the cash he dropped on Chandler Parsons, and with the disastrous Rondo trade. Anyone not named Dirk Nowitzki will be expendable in the quest to get Diggler one last ring. Expect the Mavs to go hard after a disgruntled Cousins and one of the dozens of top tier free agents this summer.

Cory: Multiple teams will be different next summer! I don’t see Aldridge staying in Portland. If Duncan retires after a first round exit, San Antonio is an ideal location for him to join Kawhi in the next incarnation of the Spurs. The Bulls will certainly be different. A second round exit and the loss of their taskmaster coach seems destined. For all of the good that is said about Thibs, it appears that he runs guys into the ground.

5. Quick series prediction for each first round matchup:

Ben:

• Warriors over Pelicans in 5. The Warriors are insanely deep and well coached. I truly believe Davis is the best player in this series, but the matchups on the wing are hilariously unfair. The Davis/Anderson frontline has a better chance of competing, but it will be for naught. Still, Davis will average 30, 10, and 3 for the series.
• Mavericks over Rockets in 7. Okay, I should break my word and change this pick after watching the first game. Despite 18 rebounds from Tyson Chandler, he looks forked. He was miserable defending the rim. He has been limited athletically for most of this season, but I’d hoped that he would be ready for the playoffs. Ditto for Chandler Parsons and his balky right knee. No such luck. Dwight, in limited minutes due to foul trouble, was an absolute beast. Dude had five legit blocks in 17 minutes. Clint Capela flashed his potential as the Rockets’ backup center. Harden did his Harden thing by netting 24 points on 11 shots.  And yet, I still like the Mavs to squeak this series out. Rick Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the league. He is particularly good at adjusting from one game to the next. I have confidence that he can fix some of the defensive disaster from game one with good scheming. Monta Ellis and Devin Harris will likely share the floor more going forward. Rondo didn’t play horribly, but for the Mavs to win, Dirk and Monta need a spaced floor. The Mavs can also count on Corey Brewer coming down to earth a bit. Oh who am I kidding. The Rockets are going to win in six. Ugh.
• Spurs over Clippers in 6 LA has AWFUL wing players, no bench and an overrated coach. That frees the Spurs to play Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green on Chris Paul while they hide Tony Parker on Matt Barnes. This is miserable matchup for the Clippers. Paul is a bear defensively, but he can’t stop the Spurs motion offense. I can’t wait to see Boris Diaw own Blake Griffin on the block.
• Memphis over Portland in 6. I’m bummed out that LaMarcus Aldridge has a bad thumb. I am more bummed that Wesley Mathews is out for the season. I am hopeful that Tony Allen and Mike Conley can get healthier. This series could have been amazing with everyone at 100%. Instead, we must settle for watching great low and mid post play from both teams.
• Hawks over Nets in 6 I am probably overrating the Nets’ late season surge, but if I am the Hawks, I really don’t like this matchup. Brook Lopez forces the Hawks to play a true big at center any time he is in there. Thaddeus Young has given the Net lineup much better floor geometry. With Millsap nursing a sore shoulder, the Hawks dominant starting five might be a bit vulnerable. Joe Johnson is still one of those guys who can win a playoff game by himself. .I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawks won in four, but I think Brooklyn squeezes out a second victory.
• Cavs over Celtics in 4. Covered above.
• Bucks over Bulls in 7 Bulls over Bucks in 6. If Brandon Knight were still on this squad, I would go for it, but there is no reason to pick two long shots.
• Raptors over Wizards in 7. I still have no idea what Dwayne Casey is doing with James Johnson. This series is over the moment that Casey pulls his head out of the sand and sics Johnson on Paul Pierce. I get that Johnson is a bit of a “trick or treat” player, but he can absolutely change a game with his intensity and physicality. Lowry, DeRozan, Johnson, Psycho-T, and Jonas might not be the best lineup in the world, but they surely aren’t fun to play against. Even Landry frickin Fields would have helped against Pierce. The Wizards were far too comfortable in the first game. Casey needs to wise up.

David:

• The Cavs will take down the Celtics in six games. The Celts will steal one because of the Cavs turning it over too much, and they will get another one when David Blatt decides to do a little bit of experimentation with the offense.
• The Bucks will beat the Bulls in seven games. Would you count on Derrick Rose for a full playoff series yet?
• Atlanta will dismantle Brooklyn in four games. Brooklyn may be where veteran pride goes to die.
• Paul Pierce and the Wizards will beat Toronto in six. I think Pierce still has some of his past scariness left.
• The Warriors will sweep the Pelicans, see above question.
• The Spurs and Clippers will go to six games. The Spurs will let the Clippers beat themselves.Remember the Clippers game against Cleveland where the Clippers earned two thousand technicals in two minutes?
• The Mavericks will beat the Rockets in seven. Remember when Rick Carlisle slowed LeBron in the 2011 finals? James Harden is next. Harden isn’t at the same level as LeBron was then, and the Mavs aren’t the same team as the one they had then either. It’s appropriate a scaled down Mavs will take a slightly lesser player like Harden down.
• The Grizzlies will beat Portland in five. Memphis started the year out really well and then trailed off. I think much of their fall off was fatigue related. That ends this series.

Robert:

• Hawks over Nets in five.
• Cavs over Celtics in four.
• Bulls over Bucks in five.
• Wizards over Raptors in six.
• Warriors over Pelicans in four.
• Rockets over Mavericks in six.
• Spurs over Clippers in seven.
• Grizzlies over Blazers in six.

Nate:

Hawks in 5, Cavs in 5, Bulls in 5, Wizards in 6. Warriors in 4, Rockets in 5, Spurs in 7, Grizzlies in 5. Outside of the Spurs, the first round is going to be pretty boring. Expect the Clips to stir up some controversy to fill the void. It’s Doc’s M.O.

Cory:

• Hawks over Nets in 5. I kind of like Washington or Toronto in the second round series with Atlanta.
• Cavs over Celtics in 4. I’d actually like for Boston to win a game, because I’ll be in Vegas when they would play game five.
• Bulls over Bucks in 5. The Bucks just don’t have the outside shooting to pull off the upset. They went from the worst team in the league to the playoffs, and Parker missed nearly the entire season. Seattle is going to LOVE this team.
• Raptors over Wizards in 7. Lowry’s only played five minutes of the fourth do to fouling out. He’s still the best player in the series.
• Warriors over Pelicans in 5. Anthony Davis is going to play 40 plus minutes every game. He will win them one.
• Mavericks over Rockets in 7. I believe in Carlisle.
• Clippers over Spurs in 6. I predicted a Cavs/Clippers Finals in a season preview. I’m sticking with it.
• Grizzlies over Blazers in 5. After yesterdays blow out, it’s hard to imagine the Blazers winning a game.