Five on Five: Second Round Edition

First off, today is your LAST DAY to get your CtB T-Shirts. Remember, all proceeds go to the Lauren Hill, “The Cure Starts Now” tribute fund. Red or Black. You choose. Secondly, we thought we’d give you a second round preview. We assembled five members of our crack staff to give you their expert and/or off-the-cuff analysis. Enjoy.

1. Stephen Curry won the MVP, are you cool with it?

Robert: Curry had a ridiculous (and healthy) season for a Warriors team that was dominant from start to finish. Parts of the season had me leaning more toward James Harden — because of what he was able to do with a Rockets team that was missing its second best player in Dwight Howard — but this was just Curry’s year.

Curry joins Oscar Roberston, Allen Iverson, Steve Nash (twice) and Derrick Rose as the only point guards to win the award in the last 51 years (although, yes, he also makes the fourth in just the last 14). He proved this year — if he hadn’t already — that he was more than just a three-point shooter, showing a proclivity toward Vine-making ball handling wizardry, jaw-dropping displays of on-fireness, all while managing to make his talented supporting cast even better.

Fun fact: If you average the points per game and assist averages for Steve Nash’s and Allen Iverson’s MVP seasons you get the following: 24.12 PPG and 7.8 assists. Curry’s averages this year were almost exactly that (23.8 and 7.7).

David: Most people agree that James Harden and Stephen Curry are/were the frontrunners for the MVP award this year because of their scoring, team records,etc… Well, Curry actually deserves the award because he can do what Harden has done this season and Harden cannot do what Curry has done. Let me explain. If Curry wanted to he could draw multiple fouls per game by using his dribble drives to barrel into people on the paint’s periphery. He chooses not to for some reason. Harden, however, could not shoot at the rate Curry did for 82 games. Curry made 3.6 3s a game on 44% shooting while Harden dropped 2.6 treys per night on 38% shooting. Opponents would pick Curry up at half-court, while opponents picked Harden up three feet behind the arc. Curry’s shooting/effect on defenses is not replicable, which should mean something.

Tom: Stephen Curry deserved it. Best team, best player (by RAPM), best story, fan-favorite, media-darling.

Ben: I have alternated between the James Harden/Anthony Davis bandwagons this season. Though Anthony Davis is still a puppy in a lot of ways, he is already a dominant one. His performance in the first round did nothing to dissuade me. Anthony Davis is the best regular season player in the NBA and will be recognized as such as early as next season. As for The Beard, his work with a strange roster has been nothing short of spectacular.

Then my brother-in-law sent me the Wall Street Journal article: “Stat Wonks Have Spoken: Stephen Curry is the MVP”. After reading that, it is hard to fight the truth. Splash Brother numero uno should and will win the MVP. Shooting 41.8 percent on contested shots is just insane.

Cory: The Maurice Podoloff trophy is the most heavily interpreted award in American professional sports. Some think it should go to the best player (LeBron James). Some argue that it should go to the guy who did the most with the least help (Russell Westbrook). For me, it should go to the guy who owned the league. This was the Warriors year and he was the primary reason for it. I don’t doubt that Kerr’s system made Curry shine and would have done the same for a dozen other point guards. After thirty years of brutal mismanagement, the Warriors finally tossed the right guy (Mark Jackson) and didn’t blow up a promising young core. Steve Kerr is better as commentating, coaching and fidelity than Mark Jackson. If they don’t make the coaching change, the Warriors don’t win 67 games, and Curry doesn’t win the MVP.

2. How do the Cavs make up for the loss of Kevin Love against the Bulls deep frontline?

Robert: Short answer: they don’t. Not unless Tristan Thompson has been waiting for this moment to show off his newly-developed three point shot — a shot that, oddly, he’s chosen to go back to his left hand to shoot. The Cavs don’t have the perfect option to replace what Love brought to the team — no team does — but they do have options.

In order for the Cavs to get past the Bulls, I think they need a strong series from heretofore little used Shawn Marion. At this stage in his career, Marion probably isn’t going to be of much use against the Bulls perimeter guys (though, it would be great to be able to throw vintage Matrix on Nikola Mirotic), but he should be able to give some good minutes down low, checking a semi-hobbled Joakim Noah and/or Taj Gibson and helping keep the team competitive on the glass. And maybe — maybe — Marion even hits a three or two to help space the floor.

David: Tristan Thompson has to smuggle some extra Canadian TNT into every single game. Love stretched the floor for the Cavs remarkably, and it seems Tristan will have to fill that roll a little bit. However, Tristan can’t shoot. To make up for that he needs to go harder than he ever has after offensive rebounds. Whoever is guarding TT needs to fear that a running Tristan start for an offensive board is going to lead to two points. If Tristan can do that, then whoever covers him will have to body him up wherever he goes on the floor. That would allow Tristan to stretch the floor and keep the paint free of an extra Bull. Offensive boards will be Tristan’s 3-point shot.

While gathering data about plus-minus numbers for five man lineups over 48 minutes, one lineup really stood out. It happens to be one that relies solely on LeBron James to score points and four other guys to defend their little hearts out. When the Cavs played Matthew Dellavedova, Lebron, Iman Shumpert, Tristan Thompson, and Timofey Mozgov, they out scored the opposition by 40 points over a 48 minute stretch. On paper, if you just combined each of these individual players’ plus-minus/48 minutes, they should have only out scored opponents by 10 points a game.

My guess is that switching on pick and rolls neutralizes a lot of opposing offense. Whenever Dellavedova and Shumpert share the floor David Blatt has them play a zone above the arc. You then can’t run either Cavs guard off a screen for an easy three pointer. If you try to penetrate the ball, there’s a really good chance Tristan switches onto the ball handler and uses his length to prevent an easy shot. And, if the ball handler makes it past TT, the Mozerati is perfectly happy swatting a shot all the way back to Russia. So yes, all the Matty D and clogged floor haters must acknowledge one of the best Cavs lineups features no stretch four and two bigs with almost zero range. The Cavs might have to Mike Brown their way through this series.

Tom: Go small and hope to not get killed on the offensive glass? Or just play Tristan Thompson with Mozgov and find a way to get easy baskets with the logjam. Since Mozgov can actually hit a 15-footer, it might make sense to run some pick-n-pops with him and have Tristan crashing the glass from the weak side. I don’t know. David Blatt gets a chance to really earn his paycheck. Love’s presence makes everything easier for the Cavs.

Ben: LeBron James. Kevin Love saved LeBron from having to bang too often with power forwards this season. It is the primary reason that James preferred Love to Wiggins. With Love on board, the King didn’t get beat up so often down low. Still, in the playoffs, LeBron is devastatingly effective at the four. He will be forced to play lower on offense, though I still expect him to guard opposing threes on the defensive end. With a lineup of Kyrie, JR, Shump, Bron, and TT, the Cavs can switch almost everything. That kind of flexibility makes up for the size disparity. A relatively fresh James with a day off between games should be able to provide enough big man minutes.

Just as important, Noah has not been threatening in the least on the offensive end. Unless Taj Gibson gets rolling like he did last season, the Bulls will never have two effective post players in the game at once. Gasol can be tough, but still should not command a regular double-team. The Bulls simply don´t play as big as they are.

Cory: Blatt has a deep history of getting his teams to overachieve and he’s had five full practices to prepare for the series. The difference this time is that he has the best player on the planet in his chamber. LeBron will facilitate from the post in a Cavs uniform, which is something we’ve been waiting a decade for. I expect Marion and James Jones to get significant minutes. Obviously Mozilla will have to stay out of foul trouble. Winning one of the first two games without J.R. Smith is imperative.

3. Clippers/Spurs owned the first round. What will be the best second round matchup?

Robert: Cavs/Bulls has the makings of an historic series. After that, I’d say the Clippers/Rockets series has the most chance of giving NBA fans really memorable playoff moments. There’s the chance that both team’s employ Hack-a-Whomever, as Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan will wage their own battle to see which team’s starting center can keep his FT% north of 50. There’s the chance that CP3 and The Beard trade big shot for big shot to close out at least one of these games. There’s the Rockets depth and the Clippers lack thereof.

David: Cleveland against Chicago will be the funnest matchup. These two teams don’t like each other, so this will be a physical series. The Bulls are going to play extra rough against a short Cavs frontline to cause foul trouble. This will lead to a win, and the signature “maybe D-Rose isn’t dead” game will lead to a win too. The Cavs could also give up a game adjusting to not having Kevin Love and JR Smith. That’s three wins for the Bulls right there, making this a seven game series.

Can Jimmy Butler shutdown LeBron? Can Kyrie Irving shatter both of Derrick’s ceramic knees with one fast dribble between the legs? Will Matty D and Joakim Noah hug one another after realizing they’re the most annoying players in the league? There are just so many questions in this series.

Tom: The two series I expect to be very evenly matched are the Cavs/Bulls and Clippers/Rockets. I’ll give the slight edge to the Cavs and Clippers but I could see both series going seven games. I don’t think the Grizzlies have the firepower to hang with the Warriors. I’m a bit shocked the Wizards have now won five straight playoff games. I don’t know what to make of them.

Ben: I am very excited to watch the Grizz/Warriors series. This is not as good of a matchup for the Warriors as many people think. Memphis doesn’t deviate from the Grit´n´Grind. The Warriors will still have stretches when they overwhelm the Grizzlies with transition bombs, but those stretches won´t last long in the Grindhouse.

Watching two of the best positional bigman defenders in Bogut and Gasol will be a treat. Those guys are absolute geniuses at playing angles to deter positive offensive movement. Some say that the Grizz have a huge advantage at center. It is an advantage, but Bogut will be able to handle both Gasol and Z-Bo on the block. If Mike Conley can come back and be effective, Memphis can matchup with the Warriors´starters. If Jeff Green and Courtney Lee can bury enough threes, this series could go the distance.

Cory: LeBron has owned to the Rose/Thibs era Bulls to the tune of an 8-2 record and LeBron completely shut down pre-injury Rose in 2011. The closest series, I see is going to be Clippers/Rockets. DeAndre is a bigger version of Dwight Howard.

4. What team is most likely to pull of an upset?

Robert: It’s the Wizards and they’re already on their way after snagging Game 1 in Atlanta. John Wall and company are playing better on both sides of the floor than they have all year and happen to be matched up with a Hawks team that just struggled crushing the spirit of a Nets team that had very little spirit in the first place. While Atlanta certainly could retake the momentum of this series and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, there is a very good chance that Cavs fans get another playoff series against the Wiz to add to the annals.

David: The Wizards are going to use their talent against the Hawks. They have guys that can make really difficult shots/generate easy shots using pick and rolls. The Hawks have guys that make assisted shots through motion. Sometimes, Atlanta misses those great shots like in the 15 point, 5-28 shooting, fourth quarter they put up against the Wizards to lose game one of their second round series. Talent makes every shot into an okay shot. It’s a sad but true reality.

Tom: Well I’d have to say the Wizards since they are off to such a promising start. Did you know Drew Gooden has made five of his last seven 3s? He’s nine of 17 in five playoff games. (!) Guess how many 3s Drew Gooden has ATTEMPTED in his playoff career (Before this improbable run)? Eleven. And he made zero of them. That’s 0-11 in a robust 54 playoff games played. And now he’s 9-17 in five games. I’m going to sit here longer with a gaping mouth.

Ben: Since the Rockets will probably be considered the underdog despite the higher seed, I will take Houston. The Clippers just barely got past the defending champion Spurs because Chris Paul and Blake Griffin played a perfect game seven. Even if Chris Paul didn’t have a bad hamstring that will likely cost him Game 1, the Clippers would be too gassed to steal a game in Houston. The Rockets have the perfect frontcourt to battle Griffin and Jordan. Josh Smith and Dwight Howard have unleashed their own 4/5 PnR and it has been devastating. Smith at his best is almost as effective as Griffin, while Howard is the better two way player at the center position. Without Chris Paul at full strength, the Clippers have zero chance of stopping James Harden. Zero. This could get ugly. I am very disappointed the Spurs didn’t move on because the Clippers are about to get run out of the gym.

Cory: Wizards. Atlanta hasn’t looked at all like the midseason juggernaut they were. Horford and Millsap are banged up and they are running the offense through Kyle Korver and DeMarre Carroll.

5. Quick series prediction for second round matchups ( number of games included)

Robert:

Wizards over Hawks in seven games.

Cavs over Bulls in six.

Warriors over Grizzlies in five.

Clippers over Rockets in seven.

David: The Wizards will beat the Hawks in six games. The Hawks have nothing to go to if their shots aren’t falling. Who on their team is un-guardable?

The Cavs will beat the Bulls in seven games. Jimmy Butler can only lock down one player on the floor at a time every night. Other Bulls like Tony Snell can slow down a guy like Kyrie Irving for a game or two, but that’s still only one or two games where both Cavs superstars are bothered. Kyrie and LeBron will have their huge games. It’s impossible to stop them from penetrating, and Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah aren’t formidable rim protectors.

The Warriors are going to sweep the Grizzlies. Mike Conley can hinder Stephen Curry, but he’s out and when he comes back he probably won’t be 100%. Without Conley, one of the splash brothers is free to go off on a nightly basis.

Houston will beat the Clippers in six games. James Harden penetrates almost on command, and if DeAndre Jordan rotates to stop him, Dwight Howard will be waiting for an over the top lob pass. Chris Paul is injured right now, so he’s even less of a deterrent to Harden’s playing style. He’ll also have trouble scoring with a bum hamstring. Houston is comfortable letting Blake Griffin try to win a series.

Tom:

Wizards in four (obviously)

Cavs in seven, but Mike Dunleavy rips Kyrie Irving’s left ear clear off in Game 7 and Kyrie has season ending ear surgery.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDTdznm7KH4

Clippers in six, now that Big Baby Davis is in full-on playoff Big Baby Davis mode.

Warriors in five, the terror continues.

Ben:

Warriors over Grizzlies in six

Covered it above. Z-Bo gets hot to steal one game. Courtney Lee drills enough from downtown to steal another. The Warriors´depth is just too much in a seven game series. I hope Shaun Livingston continues to play well.

Rockets over Clippers in five

The Clippers are Chris Paul. Paul is injured. Good Luck, crazy owner, guy.

Hawks over Wizards in six

The Wizards have the same kind of advantage over the Hawks as the Nets did. They are big on the wing and huge down low. Normally, the Hawks guard speed is too much to handle for opposing backcourts. That won´t be the case with John Wall and Bradley Beal geared up. Paul Millsap is still looking a bit apprehensive going to the cup. If Millsap and Horford aren´t completely healthy, the Hawks could be in trouble.

Can Coach Bud and the Hawks stop Paul Pierce (aka Captain Washington)?

Still, I don´t see Coach Bud allowing Paul Pierce to old man himself into open jumpers. Pierce is still a coldblooded shooter, but a smart coach will not allow him to take and make that elbow jumper time and time again. The Hawks are too disciplined to allow Pierce and Drew Gooden to change the game at the stretch four.

Dennis Schröder is already frothing at the mouth to go against Ramon Sessions. The Hawks bench is far more athletic than the Wizards´ group. Look for Mike Scott to have a big series.

Cavs over Bulls in six.

LeBron and company aren´t going to mind closing out the Bulls away from home. I think a rested and focused LeBron will lead the way in Game 1. The Bulls ride Butler and hot shooting from the perimeter to a Game 2 victory. JR happily scorches the nets in his comeback in Game 3. Kyrie reminds everyone that he is the far superior point guard in Game 4. Thibs plays his starters 48 minutes in Game 5 to secure the victory. He makes them run suicides on their off day. The Cavs beat a dead tired Bulls squad in Game 6. (Yes, I realize that has the Cavs winning three away games. I don´t care.)

Honestly, I don´t understand how the Derrick Rose bandwagon is still so ridiculously full. The guy is a terrible outside shooter. His defense has always been suspect. At his current “full strength” he has almost no lift. Rose was overrated when he was the MVP. He was never as good as Russell Westbrook was this past season, but somehow people have blown him up in their collective mind to those heights. Of course he still flashes with a nifty layup and an improbable hot streak from three, but he has been largely a minus player this season. I would be more afraid of the Bulls if Rose were out and Jimmy Butler got his touches. That guy has lived in the lane this season and could get a thin Cavalier wing group in foul trouble. Stay heathy, Derrick! (Sorry if that ends up being the biggest jinx ever. Boston and then Chicago. If the Cavs get out of these two series, they will have exercised some demons).

Cory:

Wizards over Hawks in six. Atlanta is just too banged up.

Cavs over Bulls in six. It will be a tight series and I even took the Bulls plus 5.5 for game one.

Warriors over Grizzlies in five. If Conley was at full health, I could see it going six games. The Warriors will win the series, but where will Andrew Bogut be after the physicality of the Memphis front line?

Clippers over Rockets in six. The Clippers were my pick to play the Cavs for the title in the preseason and I’m sticking with them.