Preview and Live Thread: Cavs at Bulls (Game 4)

News is that Pau Gasol will not play today after injuring his left hamstring in Game 3.  They are calling it a “strain” which means he could be back in a game or two.  The Bulls finally went to their bench in game 3 and Nikola Mirotic showed how dangerous he can be.  He scored 12 points and grabbed eight boards in just 22 minutes.  He was a game high +19.  Obviously, losing Gasol hurts the Bulls, but the “small-ball” lineup of the Bulls is dangerous if only because it features a lot of streaky outside shooting in a series that has been mostly a half-court grindfest.  I’m not sure I agree with the sentiments in these tweets that the Bulls will be “better” but they will present a different look that the Cavs need to be prepared for.

https://twitter.com/Cavsanada/status/597471791028666368

Jacob Rosen saved me some time:

Regular season and playoffs:
Cavs w/ Gasol on court: +27 in 221 mins (+5.86 per 48)
Cavs w/ Gasol on bench: -12 in 120 mins (-4.80 per 48)

— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) May 10, 2015

The Cavs once again stand at the precipice of a chasm.  It’s hard to see them beating the Bulls in three straight games, making this game somewhat of a “must-win”.  However, if they split on the road they will have regained home court advantage and will be sitting pretty.

The key to the rest of the series is Kyrie Irving’s health and LeBron James’ offensive execution in the half-court.  Both of these were severely lacking in game 3 and cost the Cavs the game (the Cavs bench played very well).  Kyrie’s game has a chaos factor that can get buckets when nothing else is working, much like he did at times in game 1.  Without that, the Cavs offense is predictable and relies on a lot of high screen and rolls with LeBron.  Jimmy Butler is showing an increased acumen in defending these screens.  He’s anticipating them and rarely getting picked.  The Cavs “answer” to this was to have LeBron go mano-y-mano in the post.  Unfortunately, LeBron’s been losing the handle as he tries to muscle his way into the low post.

Keep an eye out for Timofey Mozgov’s minutes in this game.  The Cavs don’t seem to trust him out there. He’s fumbled away enough passes and had his shot blocked at the rim enough to understand why the Cavs are quick to pull the plug.  Still, he offers rim protection.  The Bulls swung the momentum in their favor in the 3rd quarter of game 3 with a series of breezy dribble-drives to the hoop.

The Bulls scored 27 points in this quarter. Only five of those came from outside the paint.

Now Mozgov played the first half of this quarter so he was partly responsible for the carnage, but he will fare better in the long run at keeping the Bulls from turning the game into a layup line for Butler and Rose.  Keyphrase: “long run”.  Will Blatt stick with him after a few momentum changing turnovers?  Or will he go with James Jones and TT.

According to @ESPNStatsInfo, the Cavs are a +25 this series in the 49 mins Thompson & Mozgov shared the court. Could exploit more w/ no Pau

— Dave McMenamin (@mcten) May 10, 2015

These teams know each other and there is some chess to be played: will Blatt try to actually “go big” to exploit the loss of Gasol (and hope the Bulls play the severely struggling Joakim Noah) or will they call in an airstrike and run James Jones for heavy stretches at the 4?

Still, this series is being defined by the play of Rose, Butler, James, and Irving.  Going into the series, you’d have given the edge to the Cavs.  If Kyrie’s injuries hamper him as much as they did in game 3, it’s going to take a vintage LeBron performance to advance.