Five on Five: Conference Finals Edition

1. If you’re the Cavs, what worries you the most going into a series against the Atlanta Hawks?

Tom: I worry about the Cavs being able to match up with the front line of the Hawks.  They got away with playing James Jones because Joakim Noah with so useless offensively. But that’s not going to work against Paul Millsap or Al Horford. they’ve had slow start with Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson playing together. The key to the series may be LeBron James guarding Paul Millsap.

Cory: Kyle Korver shot a sizzling .492 3P% on 449 attempts during the regular season, but has struggled from downtown against the Wizards. Bradley Beal blanketed Korver through their series and it was effective as Korver shot just 12 for 42 from beyond the arc. He’s due to breakout of his shooting funk.

Ben: Dennis Schröder. That kid is insanely slippery. He walks around the court like he owns the place and it rubs some people the wrong way. There are also the Rondo comparisons that lead many to assume he is a headcase. And hey, his German status has confused people into thinking he dominated a chair in his youth. However, he is a very fine player who is only getting better. He is incredibly long on the perimeter. (I was just chatting with a German buddy of man who got yanked from his youth game after Dennis picked his pocket on four consecutive trips). He and Teague should be able to give Kyrie some trouble even if Uncle Drew feels fresh like Nephew Drew. Schröder is a much better shooter than Rondo every dreamed of being and has already mastered the change of pace drive going either way. He has a knack for getting his shoulder by the defender as if it were buttered. The Cavs have had some trouble against lightening quick PGs. It will probably be up to Shump to shut him down.

David: I’m worried about the Hawks offense starting to look like it did in the middle of the season. When the Hawks destroyed the Cavs by 29 points in December, it was because their guards would cut into the paint and then whip the the ball to the open shooter. If Kyrie is still running around like he has a stick taped to his leg, there would be even more pressure on Mozgov to mean mug away possible penetration. Delly might have to play 48 minutes then too. Relying on those two guys full-time scares me.

Robert: The Cavs need to be very cautious about starting games as slowly as they did against Chicago. I don’t think you can expect this Hawks team to take a quarter off from scoring like the Bulls often did to let the Cavs claw their way back into the game.

2. If you’re the Hawks, what worries you most about facing the Cavs? And, no, you can’t just answer “LeBron James.”

Tom: The Hawks have been unable or unwilling to run their high octane offense so far in these playoffs.  The Cavs have shown to be a pretty darn good defensive team in the half court.  If they were unable to generate high efficiency looks against John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Otto Porter, then they could really struggle against JR Smith, Iman Shumpert, and LeBron James.

Cory: With Tristan Thompson playing center the Cavs can sport lineups that can switch on everything. Thompson isn’t undersized at center in this series either. His standing reach at the draft combine (9’0.5”) was higher than Al Horfords (8’11”).

Ben: The Cavs’ size. Horford has made a career of playing at the five even though he is more naturally an old school power forward. Same for Paul Millsap as an undersized four. The Hawks’ frontline used its skill-set and mobility to make life tough for Nene and Gortat. They won’t have the same mobility advantage over Moz and TT. If the Hawks can’t limit the Cavs’ offense any time Cleveland plays both bigs, they are in a for a short series. The Hawks offense can stall when the opposing team has the size and speed to hang with their frontline. Somewhat paradoxically, the Cavaliers will be able to get away with playing James Jones at the four against any bigman not named Horford. Paul Millsap does have post-up skills, but baiting Millsap into post action prevents the Hawks from properly running their motion offense. The Cavaliers can have success playing super big and super small against a Hawks team that plays like a bunch of guards.

David: The Cavs have five, maybe even six, guys that can possibly go off and win a game: Iman, LeBron, Kyrie, JR Smith, Canadian TnT, and possibly Matty. What’s terrifying for opponents is that each of those guys has different a skill set. You can’t stop scoring, grinding, offensive rebounding, and suffocating defense with just one game plan. It’s impossible, so you have to just pick one thing to stop and live with whatever the outcome is. Do you want a Shumping or 31 minutes of Delly-Time?

Robert: The fact that the Cavs can win by going big or by going small. There’s probably a game in this series where Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson punish the Hawks front line (which, while being very good, is not as imposing as the front line of the Chicago Bulls) and another when LeBron plays a lot at the four and the Cavs win both. I’m just not sure that Atlanta has that same level of versatility.

3.  We’ve already seen Matthew Dellavedova rise up and steal his share of the playoff spotlight. Name one player from any of the four Conference Finals teams who we’re not talking about now, but will by the end of the series.

Tom: Anyone on the Hawks? I’m not sure I’ve seen a single Hawks highlights other than the Al Horford put back. They remain the most uninteresting team in the playoffs , but if someone like DeMarre Carroll gives LeBron James fits, he will become a household name quickly. I could see Dennis Schroeder going a little crazy and finding himself in some playoff hype commercials.

Cory: If the Rockets are going to have any shot of keeping their series with the Warriors competitive someone is going to have to step up. Josh Smith and Corey Brewer were electric in game six, but I’m gonna go with a WildCat to be the Houston wild card. Terrence Jones isn’t one of the heralded Calipari kids in the NBA, but he’s developed into a quality stretch four next to Dwight Howard. During the regular season the versatile southpaw shot a respectable .351 from downtown.

Ben: It’s hard to find a true unknown guy by the time you get to the final four. Delly had his game. I’ve already talked about Schröder. The only real breakout type guy left has to be Pablo Prigioni. The 38 year old Argentine had a very nice closeout game against the Clips. He clearly isn’t as quick as he was in his prime when he was widely considered the top PG outside of the NBA, but Prigioni is the definition of wily veteran. The guy plays angles beautifully. He completely understands how to use his length to manipulate opposing players when he is a PnR defender. He doesn’t shoot much, but he can drill an open three. Clearly, I don’t expect him to lockdown the MVP, but if Prigioni and Terry can even approach the success they had against Chris Paul, the series could get interesting.

David: Kyle Korver will get back in rhythm. I have nightmares about this happening. Korver just shot 28% from 3-point land against the Wizards. That was part good Washington defense and part luck. A guy who shoots 49% and makes the third most threes in the league during the regular season is not a fluke. He’s a Sports Center top-ten candidate in waiting during the playoffs. Even if Korver doesn’t bounce back totally, he will still draw attention like he has, which eliminates the Cavs weak side help defense.

Robert: So far in the playoffs, DeMarre Carroll is shooting 44% from three point range. There were times in the Bulls series when Chicago’s shooters would go cold from beyond the arc. Some of that was the Cavs defense. But some of it was just some very streaky shooting. Should Carroll find himself with the same opportunities, he could have some big games during this series.

4. Which one of the top-3 vote getters for the 2014-15 NBA MVP is poised to have the Most Valuable Conference Finals?

Tom: LeBron James figures to have the highest usage in the conference finals. he could put together a throwback 2009 like series. The Warriors and the Rockets are largely intact so the load could be spread more evenly.

Cory: That comes down to what LeBron’s Magic 8-Ball tells him to do before each game. He could dominate the Hawks in the post all series, but that outlook is not so good. I’ll go with Steph Curry. Harden certainly isn’t going to stop him and with Patrick Beverly on the shelf for the remainder of the playoffs, I don’t see a Rocket slowing him down.

Ben: The King. After an average series against Jimmy Butler, LeBron will feel free. The Hawks team defense does a good job of forcing guys into tough driving lanes, but they have been late on rotation frequently since the playoffs began. DeMarre Carroll is a tough defender with quick enough feet to handle LeBron on dribble drives, but he doesn’t have the strength to truly disrupt Bron when he posts on that left block. Kawhi Leonard is the obvious comparison for Carroll, but the Hawk is not in Leonard’s league. I expect Paul Millsap to get some run against Bron as well, but without Thabo, the Hawks don’t have a lot of good options. Paul Pierce and Otto Porter played well against he Hawks wings. Even older LeBron with a currently broken jumper is better than those guys. Moreover, the Hawks have relied on Carroll more on the offensive end throughout the playoffs than they had in the regular season. Good luck shouldering that burden while defending LeBron James.

David: Stephen Curry laughed maniacally when the Rockets won the series against the Clippers. Who would you rather have covering you, Chris Paul or Pablo Prigioni? Curry can torch Pablo off the dribble for layups and run him off of multiple screens to get open 3s. There are going to be some Kyrie level ankle breakers that end with a three instead of a reverse layup.

Robert: Following the Cavs last meeting with the Hawks — a 106-97 loss back on March 6 that saw LeBron James score 18 points on 5-13 shooting from the floor — many of LeBron James’s post-game comments suggested that, in spite of the loss, he actually wasn’t that worried about facing the Hawks. Remember, that was the game in which the Hawks decided to throw a completely different look at James on defense. It flustered him, but it was a card the Hawks could have chosen to save for the playoffs and didn’t. You know James is itching for a big series after shooting so poorly from the field against the Bulls and I expect him to have one.

5. What are your predictions for both Conference Finals series?

Tom: I’ve been wrong more than I’ve been right in the playoffs, but I would take the Warriors in 5 and the Cavs in 7.  I’m fairly certain the Warriors are going to breeze to the title. They have the most talent, the most depth, the fewest injuries, and I don’t see them tightening up in the face of adversity.

Cory: When you’re right 52% of the time, you’re wrong 48% percent of the time. I’ll go with Warriors and Cavs in six. The Warriors run of good luck on health has been fortunate. If it lasts they’ll probably win the title. If Bogut or Curry gets dinged up, the Larry O’Brien trophy is as up for grabs as it has been in years.

Ben: Warriors over Rockets in 7. I was rather shocked that Houston played with such low energy in the first three games of round two. I was not shocked that they beat an overrated Clippers squad. The Warriors are predicated on beating you with shooting and flexibility. Both will be severely tested against a very good Rocket team. When Steve Kerr and his staff decided that Andrew Bogut should guard glance at Tony Allen, it freed the Aussie bigman to double Z-Bo and Gasol on the block. Literally everything from the Warriors’ last series should be forgotten. The Rockets make you guard them traditionally, only their players are dynamic. Sound familiar? In many ways, the Rockets and Warriors are mirror images. Both are insanely long on the wing. Both have do-it-all power forwards whose three ball can swing a series if it is falling. Both have impossible to defend ball handlers who can drop 45 on 20 shots. The Warriors only true advantage is depth. With Patrick Beverley out for the playoffs, they Rockets are missing that one defensive minded player it needs. Meanwhile, the Dubs can throw Curry, Thompson, Iggy, Livingston, Green, and even Barnes at the Beard. That is the difference. Don’t think we have seen the last of Hack’a’whomever. Howard and Bogut are still alive.

Cavs over Hawks in 6. With Kyrie hobbled, the Hawks will win a couple low scoring games. The Hawks won’t be able to penetrate the Cavs defense with any kind of regularity. But if Kyrie is too banged up, the Wine and Gold may also be rather sluggish on the offensive end. Tristan and Mozgov are vital in this series. We might see TT have a 20 rebound game as the Hawks have often had a tough time grabbing defensive rebounds. Tristan is the last guy they want to see right now. Atlanta run too much good stuff too consistently to lose in five, but LeBron at full power with the Cavs on a toughman high will end the Hawks’ fantastic season.

David: The Cavs will pull off this series in five games. Atlanta just doesn’t have players that can win a game when nothing is working out for them. The Warriors will win in six games. James Harden and Dwight Howard can each win a game by themselves.

Robert: Cavs over Hawks in 6 games. Early in the series, the Hawks could pull out one game where they look like the mid-season, firing-on-all-cylinders Hawks and overwhelm a Cavs team that will look gimpier than expected following their tough series against the Bulls. But the Cavaliers will respond to make just their second Finals appearance in franchise history.

And Warriors over Rockets in 5. The Ws defense can throw plenty of different looks at both James Harden and Dwight Howard making it difficult for the Rockets to scuff up Golden State’s “team of destiny” shine.