5-on-5: Larry O’Brien Edition

1. Who or what is the key to the Warriors winning the series?

Ben: Harrison Barnes. If the Tar Heel can legitimately guard LeBron, it frees Draymond Green to compete on the defensive boards. The Warriors are not a great defensive rebounding team. If Green is busy on LeBron for long stretches, it allows Tristan Thompson to go crazy on the offensive glass against a weaker positional rebounder in Barnes. Green loves to grab the rebound and push the ball on the break a la Charles Barkley. The Cavaliers will eliminate many of the Warriors’ advantages if Barnes can’t handle The King. TT gives the Wine and Gold extra chances while limiting the Dubs’ transition game. If Harrison is up to the task, Golden State becomes roughly impenetrable. Green and Bogut are great weakside defenders. If they are free to cover space, the Cavs are in trouble.

EvilGenius: The extra half second Steph Curry needs to get open. Quite literally, this will be the key to the Warriors success. To achieve this half second, the Warriors will need to be able to move the ball and set crucial picks like they have for the majority of the regular and post-season. The one team that was able to prevent them from doing so, was the Grizzlies in the first three games of the second round (before the Grindfather, Tony Allen, pulled up lame with a bad hammy). When Allen was on the floor in Games 1-3, fighting through picks and harassing the Brothers Splash, Steph shot 39.6% (28.5% from three), and Memphis went up 2-1. When he was missing for most of Games 4-6 (14 mins in Game 4, zero in 5 and five token mins in 6), Steph abused both a broken faced Mike Conley and Nick Calathes for 83 points on 44.4% shooting (51.4% from three). The Cavs have shown the ability to shut down teams from the perimeter thus far in the playoffs, leading all playoff teams by allowing a microscopic 28.1% from three. They will need Iman, J.R., Delly and LeBron to continue their commitment to close-outs, and also for Kyrie to be passable enough to be on the court. They will also need TT to continue switching effectively on smaller guards.

Robert:  If the Warriors can limit the Cavs second chance opportunities and get out and score in bunches on the break, they will be very, very difficult to beat. The offensive glass is effectively where the series against the Bulls was won and, watching the games, it was clear that the team’s dogged board work absolutely broke the Hawks spirit. If Golden State can minimize Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov and LeBron James (and, heck, even J.R. Smith) squeezing two, three or even four possessions out of one and then attack the Cavs D before it’s set, the Cavs will have to play perfect to win. This team is many things, but perfect ain’t one.

Cory: For the Warriors to win the series they will have to hold court and avoid the lulls that plagued them against the Rockets and Grizzlies. They were legit lucky to take the first two games against the Rockets. For the reputation they justifiably earned during the regular season for being an elite defensive team, there were moments where their players started pacing themselves the last two rounds. This Cavaliers team can build a big lead fast, then move into ground and pound mode eating up clock and suffocating your own shot clock with swarming perimeter defense on the other end of the court.

Lil b is terrible

— Marreese Speights (@Mospeights16) September 2, 2011

Also, they need to avoid being cursed by one of their biggest fans.

David: The Warriors need Barnes to play above average for an entire series. So far in the playoffs he has put up 11.3 points per game on 45% shooting. He’s had a 24 point game and an 0-9 game within a four day period. The Cavs may try to hide Kyrie on him for stretches, and LeBron may play some lazy defense on him to conserve energy. Can a player who couldn’t handle coming off of the bench to lead a second unit last season handle being the man called upon to win a game?

2. Who or what is the key to the Cavs winning the series?

Ben: For his 56th year, Blatt asked for the answer to the high screen and roll. Against the Hawks, Blatt gifted himself a brilliant solution. Unfortunately, the same solution, i.e., daring the ball handler to shoot, simply isn’t possible against the best shooter in the NBA. Blatt and his staff are probably going to allow any Pick and Pop shots not involving Klay Thompson. If the Cavs can force Curry into taking mid-range jumpers between the dropping (Icing) Cavalier big man and the chasing on-ball defender, Cleveland stands a chance. It doesn’t matter if Curry drops 50 if it comes on pull up 18 footers. The Warriors offense doesn’t get humming on all cylinders unless they can get into 4-on-3 situations. Blatt must have the guts to let Curry score. Just not from deep.

EvilGenius: The extra gear that LeBron can reach in the Finals. It’s been well documented already that Golden State is the favorite and the Cavs are the underdogs. The Warriors had the better record, the best scoring offense, the top ranked defense and the MVP of the League. However, to ever call LeBron James an underdog is borderline insulting. He is only the 9th player ever to play in five straight NBA Finals. He’s also brought the 10th along with him in James Jones. And even though guys like Jones, Shawn Marion, Mike Miller and Kendrick Perkins play limited (or non-existent) roles on the court, they have the wisdom and experience of 11 combined trips to the Finals prior to this year’s that they can impart to the youngsters on the team. (In case you weren’t counting along, that’s 16 Finals trips for the current Cavs vs. zero for the current Warriors.) Despite all of that, it will ultimately come down to LBJ and his ability to raise his game to an even insanely higher level in the Finals. It’s almost unfathomable that he could outpace the 30/11/9 line he racked up against the Hawks, but if anyone can, it’s the King. He has already deemed both himself and his Akron-born counterpart, Curry, as unstoppable as gravity. It will come down to which one is more unstoppable.

Robert: The Cavs need to be the more aggressive, physical team from jump. They need to… [reaches into his bag of old Mike Brown-isms] make the Warriors “feel them” and continue their defensive intensity. For a team whose defense, for much of the season, looked like a flock of birds flying into the engine of a 747, the swarming, attacking, grinding defense the team has busted out in the last two series gives the Cavs an extra dimension most people did not see coming when the playoffs opened.

Cory: For the Cavs to win the series they are going to need LeBron to find his jumper. He’s shot a career-low 17% from three in these playoffs. If he could raise it to 30%, the Warriors will have to pick their poison with him. If the defender starts going over the pick, it will open up James’ deadly drive and dish attack and give the roll man a cleaner path to the basket with an uncluttered lane.

David: The King needs to summon his inner Chevy Chase. Chase has (this thought is courtesy of Chuck Klosterman) never tried to venture outside of what he’s really good at, comedy, and the acting community hates him for it because he’s not seen as dedicated to mastering his craft. The King needs to just go to the block. He cannot be stopped by Draymond, Iggy, or Barnes if he puts his body into backing down and getting easy shots. Golden State may even half to double him with Bogut, who is leading the playoffs in rim protection allowing just 36% shooting at the rim. If LeBron plays down low, the Cavs will be free to whip the ball around, drive, and do all shorts of other scary offensive things. This is doable, LeBron even sort of looks like Chevy with his hairline. Cleveland needs him to be hated.

3. What is the most intriguing matchup in the series?

Ben: Kyrie vs Steph. We would all look forward to this even more if we knew Uncle Drew were at 100%. Still, the prospect of watching the two most exciting point guards in the world is exhilarating. Kyrie has a chance to completely put the NBA on its ear. Remember that Kyrie beat out Curry for the lead guard position for Team USA. The FIBA MVP will have a chance to take down the NBA MVP. Both guys probably feel slighted for different things. Both guys have come up huge in big moments. Basketball fans should all hope for health.

EvilGenius: Canadian Dynamite vs. The Dancing Bear. Okay, maybe it’s not fair to Draymond to perpetuate the old, irritating nickname given to him by Tom Izzo during his days at MSU. Green has slimmed down a bit since those days, and has transformed himself into a top-notch defender (finishing runner-up in the DPOY vote to Kawhi Leonard) and a well-rounded offensive player (finishing runner-up in the MIPOY vote to Jimmy Butler). However, for all of the exponential leaps forward Green has taken this year, Tristan Thompson has jumped just has high during these playoffs. After Kevin Love went down in the Celtics series, David Blatt made his third biggest potential mis-step of the post-season (behind the timeout that wasn’t and the scratched in-bounds play) and started Mike Miller at the four in Game 1 against the Bulls. That took about five minutes to fail worse than Tomorrowland did at the box office, and from then on, TT took over. Though his averages aren’t necessarily eye-popping, he’s had double digit rebounds in all but two of his nine playoff starts, and has absolutely dominated the front lines of both the Bulls and Hawks. I for one cannot wait to see these two high-motor forwards mix it up under the rim.

Except the Cavs…

Robert: Wow. So many, but I’m going to pass over many of the bigger names and say that the matchup in the between Andrew Bogut/Festus Ezeli and Timofey Mozgov/Tristan Thompson will go a long way toward deciding the outcome of this series. Mozgov has a slight size advantage over Bogut and Thompson proved in the Chicago series that he can play bigger than his 6-8 frame (and, yes, I realize that Thompson has been listed as tall as 6-10… but, let’s face facts, he’s not). In particular, the Cavs need Thompson to continue his recent growth as a rim protector and stay out of the foul trouble the Warriors will likely try to get him into.

Cory: Lawd, there’s a number of them, but I’m going to go with a pair of guys who nearly shared the same bench this season. Both coaches are rooks by the standard of the term, but Blatt has twenty years on Kerr from the pine and Kerr has twenty something years of NBA experience on Blatt. This is going to be a close series and both teams  are chalked with versatile players. Whoever adjusts better on the fly is going to win.

David: The best matchup this series is Kyrie and Curry. These two guys are offensively potent enough to force Sports Center into doing top-20 lists instead of top-10 lists each night a Finals game is on. However, they need to actually cover each other for the match up to pan out. I’ve seen Kyrie play superman defense this season anticipating screens, fighting over and under them, and actually blowing them up before they even start. If that Kyrie shows up and doesn’t have to be hidden on defense, the series will be infinitely more interesting because there will be lots of one-on-one battles between two otherworldly point guards.

4. Who is the x factor for each team?

Ben: For the Warriors it is Andre Iguodala. The Cavs offense relies on LeBron’s ability to back down any player who has the speed to guard him faced up. Andre is a supreme defender, but is a bit too light to handle Bron for long stretches. Moreover, Iggy is a hot and cold shooter from deep. If he can hang with Bron on the block and his shot is falling, the Warriors are invincible. That is an ultimate X factor. The rest of the guys on Golden State are more predictable.

For Cleveland, it is imperative that they keep complete focus on off-ball defense. They can’t allow the many backdoor cuts and baseline screens to result in layups. There will be very specific directions/rules for each Warrior. The Cavs must immediately recognize and identify each Warrior on the fly. Drop off non-shooters, chase over on shooters, and switch when appropriate. Small mistakes result in buried threes. The Cavs can’t afford a moment of confusion.

EvilGenius: I’ll go with “Injured Sidekicks” for 100, Alex. Answer: This Australian-born Blue Devil was the only NBA player to have multiple 55+ point games this season, and was the MVP of last year’s All-Star Game, but has been hobbled by multiple lower leg injuries in the playoffs. “Who is Kyrie Irving?” Correct! We would have also accepted “Who is Uncle Drew?” “Who is Kyriediculous?” and “Who is Magnum K.I.?” Okay, “Injured Sidekicks” for 200, Alex. Oh it’s the Daily Double!

Answer: This son of a former Laker great also scored 50+ points in a game this season, going 11-15 from three with an NBA record 37 point quarter, but was last seen woozy and throwing up after taking a Trevor Ariza knee to the head. “Who is Klay Thompson?” Correct! We would have also accepted “Who is the other Splash Brother?” Both of these guys claim they should be good to go for the Finals. Whoever is right, and whichever one can step up the most to help their respective superstar the most, should prove to be the X Factor of the series.

Robert: If we’re talking a lot about Harrison Barnes in this series, that’s probably bad news for the Cavs. The Warriors have so many weapons, Cleveland’s going to have to make sure one of them is firing blanks — and Barnes, while improved, is probably the guy the Cavs want to dare to hurt them… and really hope he doesn’t. For the Cavs, Iman Shumpert’s defense on Stephen Curry could (obviously) play a big role. No one expects that Curry will (or can) be shut down, but if Shumpert can make Curry work for the shots he makes and can disrupt him a little bit with his hustle and length [closes the bag of Mike Brown-isms… for now] Curry may, at least, become a slightly more guardable unguardable player.

Cory: For the Warriors, I’m going with Harrison Barnes also, but by design I want him to be talked about a lot. The Cavs are going to try to suffocate Curry or Thompson with Shump and help defense. If one of them can be neutered, another Warrior is going to have to step up. In the 2013 Western Conference Semi-Finals, the Spurs baited the Warriors into feeding the unattended Barnes (92 shot attempts) and it worked. Make Harrison Barnes beat you.

For the Cavs, I’m gonna go with J.R. Smith. Reputations are easy to earn and hard as hell to change. He can rewrite everything bad that’s ever been said about him in this series.

David: The x-factor for the Warriors is going to be whether or not Barnes shows up. He is the only person in the Warriors starting five that the Cavs can conceivably hide a person on defensively. If he’s on, the Cavs will have a hard time in this series. The x-factor for Cleveland is going to be offensive rebounding. The Warriors are among the top four playoff defenses. Offensive rebounding is going to help offset that wonderful defense. And, the Cavs are actually better than Golden State at rebounding. In the playoffs, the King’s Men have been grabbing an average of 6.5 more boards than opponents, while the Warriors have just been getting four more than their enemies.

5. Finals prediction.

Ben: I have gone back and forth on this quite a bit, but I will resist the urge to be realistic/pessimistic and actually go with my basketball sense. The Warriors have been the best team in the NBA all season and have a chance to go down as one of the best teams ever. BUT, this Cleveland team is the worst possible matchup for them. The Cavaliers’ insane ability on the offensive glass will prevent the Warriors from leaking out in transition for easy buckets. Golden State’s defensive positional flexibility is almost rendered irrelevant against a Cleveland offense that doesn’t utilize screens in the same way as all of the “space and pace” teams. If anybody on the Dubs can really prevent LeBron from getting to the rim on post-ups then the Warriors will win. But have we really seen that? Green and Barnes are in the conversation, but neither of them is in Kahwi Leonard’s class.

The Grizz were up a game before Tony Allen went down. The Cavs can do similar things on both ends but at a higher level. Like Memphis, the Cavs have shown a grit that I haven’t seen in years. Those 25-8 runs that the Warriors have every game won’t come easy againt the Cavs’ “Ball control” offense. Unlike the Warriors, the Cavs are incapable of giving up 40 point quarters. And they certainly won’t give half effort like the Rockets.

Blatt has always been known as a guy who can gameplan the Goliath into an average attack. I think the title drought ends. Cavs in 6.

EvilGenius: I’ve been saying for a while now that I not only believed the Cavs would make it to the Finals, but also that they would emerge victorious. Golden State will be a tough test… probably the toughest they’ve had yet. However, the only team I really worried about the Cavs facing in the Finals, the one team that I thought could come close to shutting down or neutralizing LeBron, was the one that did it so well last year, the Spurs. Golden State has tremendous athletes, and they go 10 deep, so they can wear teams down on both ends of the floor. They can be deadly marksmen from deep, however, they can also go cold for spurts. They haven’t played a truly physical opponent since the Grizzlies, and Memphis showed the beginnings of the blueprint required to beat the Warriors. The Cavs will need to get physical, will need to slow the game down, and continue their excellence in defending the perimeter. All those things will also need to be bolstered by maybe the best Finals performance of LeBron’s career for the Cavs to prevail. Given how much determination, grit, fire and will this team has shown to this point, I’m not going to bet against them. Cavs in six. LeBron wins the MVP for the Finals performance for the ages.

Robert: People have been asking me this all week. What I say — and truly believe — is that I could see this series going any way, excluding a sweep by either side (which, I guess, I could also see… but don’t want to think about). The fan in me wants this series to go the distance, though, so I’m going to say Cavs in 7. And, yes, I’ve already had several heart attacks just typing that, thinking about having to win a Game 7 on the Warriors floor. But, hey, let’s get our fandom’s money’s worth, people.

Cory: Maybe I’m a homer, or maybe I’ve just killed too many braincells with Jameson over the years, but I think Vegas is bananas to have the Warriors as such heavy favorites (a new series called Cory’s Adventures in Gambling will begin during the summer btw). The Cavs have defended the three better than anyone in the playoffs. The Cavs have gobbled up an astonishing 31% of offensive rebounds attempts with Thompson on the floor, and that will drastically limit the Warriors transition offense. The Cavs will win one of the first two games in Oakland. They will go on to win games 3 and 4 in Cleveland. The Warriors will strike back and win game 5. Then on Tuesday, June 16th just before midnight, the 51-year hourglass will be flipped over. The curse of John D. Rockefeller for his crimes against nature will be forgotten. LeBron will win his third Finals MVP and a million grown men in NEO will cry in unison.

David: The Cavs are going to win in six games, and LeBron will be the MVP. There often comes a point in life where you want something so badly that the situations surrounding it don’t matter. This is that point for LeBron. How could he not want to bring a title home for Cleveland more than anything he has ever desired? Leaving the Land allowed him to see that the city needs this title more than anything. His departure caused mass depression and a spike in booze sales. It’s not often that a player can actually be bigger than an entire city. LA didn’t miss Shaq when he left. Denver didn’t freak out when Carmelo was traded, and Toronto didn’t fall into a malaise because Bosh left. It’s a sad but true reality.

And if that isn’t the case, the Cavs have Delly. The Aussie man has already taken out one of the NBA’s top three shooters and gotten two game changing bigs ejected. Curry, Thompson, Green, and Iggy best watch themselves.

Crikey!