The Point Four-ward: Let’s Get It Started, Already!

Four points I’m thinking about the Cleveland Cavaliers as they are about to tip-off their NBA Finals match-up against the Golden State Warriors…

1.) A lot of talk leading up to the Finals has been about each team’s likely inability to shut down the opposing team’s star player: LeBron James for the Cavaliers and Stephen Curry for the Warriors.

Just ask James how to stop Curry and he gives you the same answer as when you ask him how the Warriors might slow him down: “You can’t.”

The Finals will come down to more than just James vs. Curry, but it’s still tough predicting how these teams will attack each other — and how more or less likely one team is to shut down the other — come down to two things: 1.) the small sample size of head-to-head match-ups between these two teams and 2.) the fact that this is now the third (at least) iteration of the Cleveland Cavaliers that we’ve seen this season, so who knows what the Cavs will bring?

2.) The two regular season meetings by the Cavs and the Warriors this year really came down to a story of Home vs. Away.

When the two teams played in Oakland on January 10, the Cavs had just made their series of season-altering trades, but were still playing without James. Iman Shumpert was still injured (shoulder) and Timofey Mozgov came off the bench to play 27 minutes after just meeting his new teammates. Mozgov scored nine points and grabbed eight boards in his Cavaliers debut, but he also narrowly missed Matthew Dellavedova’s team-worst +/- of -20 (Mozgov had a -17). J.R. Smith, however, immediately ingratiated himself to Cavs fans by scoring a team-high 27 points (on 11-23 from the field).

Curry and Klay Thompson led the Warriors with 23 and 24 point, respectively. They both shot nearly 50% from the floor and added four free throws apiece.

James played in the second game, a nationally televised game in Cleveland on February 26, and went off for 42 points, 11 rebounds and five assists as part of his “You sure you don’t want to mention me in the MVP conversation?” tour (which also included a strong game against James Harden in Houston). He was helped by Kyrie Irving’s 24 points (6-18 from the field, 10-10 from the free throw line) and Kevin Love’s 16 points and 8 boards. Cleveland won that game 110-99.

Curry and Thompson shot a combined 10-30 from the field and Thompson didn’t attempt a free throw.

The scary thing about James’s dominating performance in that Cleveland game, though, is that it included him going 4-9 from three point range. Why is that so scary? James has only made 12 three pointers in 14 games in the playoffs so far and is shooting 17.6% from long distance.

3.) That’s just the thing: while the Warriors were basically the same Warriors on January 10 as they were on February 26 as they are now (Thompson is officially listed as “probable” following a concussion he suffered in Golden State’s series clinching victory against Houston, but is expected to play), the Cavs were a mess on January 10, they were in the middle of their second half roll on February 26 (but with a healthy Love and Irving… and before James’s jumper abandoned him) and now…? Now, the Cavs are the top defensive team of the playoffs, James is working more out of the post and the Cavs are getting huge contributions from one of the statistically weakest benches in the league during the regular season.

How big were Shumpert, Smith and Dellavedova in the Cavs victory in February? They were a combined 2-10 for six points. But how big have those three players (along with Tristan Thompson… and even James Jones) been during this playoff run?

Maybe the story of these NBA Finals will be simple: it’s the healthy Warriors against the banged-up overachieving (yes, even with James on their team this group is overachieving) Cavaliers. But, really, that should have been the story in the series against the Bulls… and then the series against the Hawks. So, no, you just never know.

This has all the makings of a fun series, though. Perhaps it won’t be the aesthetically pleasing series NBA fans expected when they wished for this Finals match-up when the playoffs began, but there’s still star power on either side. There’s still talent and heart… colorful personalities and entertaining subplots on either side. And, yes, Cavs fans, there are plenty of reasons to believe that this team can win its first ever NBA Championship.

4.) Some fun odds and ends from Las Vegas: as of Monday, Curry and James were the odds-leaders to win the NBA Finals MVP. Next up, though? How about Draymond Green at 10/1. That’s better than both Thompson and Irving, who both sit at 15/1.

But if you’re really looking to shock the world, look long and hard at Smith at 75/1 and… wait for it… Dellavedova at 500/1. With the way Dellavedova’s post-season has been going thus far, I’m half of a mind to take fate up on that offer.

For the series, the Warriors are favored with 5/11 odds to win the series. The Cavs, meanwhile, sit at 37/20.