Looking At The Backcourt Minutes

A few weeks ago, Cavs: The Blog took a look at the Cavaliers’ frontcourt and how the minutes could be split up among their plethora of big men. While we seemed to be in the ballpark of how David Blatt might set up his rotation, he has recently begun to shorten it, with Anderson Varejao recently receiving a DNP-CD against the Indiana Pacers, and James Jones playing fewer minutes than he had earlier. While Blatt has said that he doesn’t plan on staying with the shortened rotation he used against the Pacers, it does let Cavalier fans know which players he trusts the most. The battle for playing time isn’t exclusive to the Cavaliers’ big men though. When Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert return to action, the Cavs will have some tough decisions to make among their perimeter players as well.

 For the sake of this discussion, we’re going to include small forwards here rather than in the frontcourt. The only wing on the team who can play real minutes at power forward is LeBron James, and he dislikes doing so. James Jones receives all of his minutes as a stretch power forward, and he was discussed in the previous piece. As far as the rest of the roster goes, Richard Jefferson, J.R. Smith, and Joe Harris can play shooting guard and small forward. Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova, and Mo Williams can all play either guard spot. Iman Shumpert and Jared Cunningham are both essentially pure shooting guards who can play up or down a position in a pinch, but not with any regularity.

Between the point guard, shooting guard, and small forward positions, there are 144 minutes available for nine players. LeBron James is currently averaging 34.8 minutes per game. Let’s assume that when Kyrie Irving returns, he assumes enough of the scoring load that James is able to get down to around 34 minutes per game, easily a career low. Now, let’s assume Irving also plays about 34 minutes per game, which would be his lowest total since his rookie year. This leaves 76 minutes for the other perimeter players on the roster.

Barring injury or unforeseen improvement, it’s safe to say the Jared Cunningham and Joe Harris will not be part of the rotation. Harris has played only 14 minutes so far this season and all three of the shots he has attempted have been threes. While that could be seen as a good thing considering Harris was drafted in 2014 to serve as a floor spacer, it also shows how far he is from a real role in the Cavaliers’ rotation after a fairly promising rookie year. Cunningham has been a great story of a journeyman possibly finding his home, but it’s hard to see him playing ahead of Smith, Shumpert, Dellavedova, Williams, or Jefferson. When Cunningham and Harris play it will be either due to injury or the game being a blowout.

So  that leaves 76 minutes for five men, or 15.2 minutes for each. Obviously that’s not how it’s going to work, but we can look at this as a base to decide what works best for each man. Last season Shumpert averaged 24.2 minutes per game with the Cavs, while Smith was at a more robust 31 minutes per game. While it’s likely that Shumpert’s minutes remain about the same as he’s the best perimeter defender on the team outside of an engaged LeBron, there’s a good chance that Smith’s average minutes decrease to somewhere closer to Shumpert’s total. Considering he is currently averaging 23 minutes per game with Irving and Shumpert out, it seems like that average—or less— is a reasonable total for Smith for the rest of this season. This would essentially take up all of the minutes at shooting guard. Even if Smith plays some small forward, it doesn’t matter in terms of available court time.

This leaves about 30 minutes for Williams, Dellavedova, and Jefferson. If Irving and James are each playing around 33-34 minutes per game, that leaves 14 or 15 minutes to their backups. Jefferson may be okay with 10-15 minutes a game, as it was probably the type of role he expected to have upon deciding to join the Cavs. The big question is, even if Jefferson plays about 10 minutes a game with everyone healthy, what happens to Mo Williams and Matthew Dellavedova? We’re now looking at between 15 and 20 minutes of court time left, and while that might be a large enough role for one them, it certainly isn’t enough for both. In fact, it would be the fewest minutes per game Williams would have played since the 2003-2004 season, his rookie year.

There are no easy answers here, but there are some possible solutions. The easiest would likely be to simply commit to one of Williams or Dellavedova as the backup point guard. The obvious choice seems to be Williams here. He’s the better offensive player, and has tremendous chemistry with LeBron James. His offensive game is also somewhat similar to—but obviously not as good as—Kyrie Irving’s, meaning that the role of the point guard in the offense would hardly change no matter which of Irving or Williams was playing.

All of that is true, but don’t sleep on Dellavedova. As Jason Lloyd pointed out, Delly is a far better defender than Williams—who isn’t?—and has shown a tremendous amount of improvement on the offensive end this season. Dellavedova’s always been a good three point shooter who plays well off the ball, and his assist-to-turnover ratio was among the best in the league last season. This season Delly has upped his shooting percentages the point where he cannot be considered an offensive liability right now. Dellavedova’s chemistry with Tristan Thompson is also one of the strengths of the second unit. Williams and Dellavedova can both play both guard positions offensively, but at 6’4″ Dellavedova also has the size to play shooting guard defensively, something Williams simply cannot do.

Another option for the Cavaliers would be to remove Jefferson from the rotation for the time being. While he’s been a terrific addition for the Cavaliers, he may be the most expendable member of the wing rotation. At 6’6″, Smith can guard enough small forwards to assume most of the backup duties to LeBron. Jefferson is also 35 years old, and one could argue that he would be better off keeping his legs fresh by playing enough to stay sharp, but not as a regular member of the rotation. This isn’t something that I agree with, but the argument is there.

Another, much more radical option would be benching Smith. Even before his injury Smith wasn’t shooting well, a carryover from his play in the NBA Finals last June. While it’s doubtful that Smith has suddenly “lost it”, there are some reasons to consider removing him from the rotation. While he has more upside as a scorer than Shumpert, Jefferson, or Dellavedova, he also may have the lowest floor for his play of any perimeter player outside of Harris and Cunningham. Never a great defender, Smith often lets poor offensive nights affect his play on the other end. He is also more likely than most players to let his emotions get the best of him and make a poor decision on the court, as seen by his shot at Jae Crowder in the playoffs last season, and seems to have a target on his back when it comes to calls from the officials. Another concern is that at 30, Smith has hit an age when many players with his skillset begin to decline and decline fast. There’s no substantial proof that Smith has begun to slip, but it’s certainly possible, and possibility of that decline is likely part of the reason he only received a two-year deal from the Cavaliers.

Last season Smith was in the “honeymoon” phase with the Cavaliers, and there’s no guarantee that it continues. The biggest negative with benching would be him likely shutting down completely in terms of effort and commitment to the team. We’ve seen what happens with Smith’s attitude when he has become disengaged at previous stops. Can the Cavs risk this when they may need Smith again later?

There’s no doubt that David Blatt has some tough decisions ahead of him when it comes to the backcourt rotation, but what a problem to have. Shumpert is likely over a month away from returning, giving the team some time to begin sorting things out. When he does return the Cavaliers will have a virtual embarrassment of riches on the perimeter. After carrying what amounted to dead weight at the end of the bench last season, and watching LeBron James have to play at a superhuman level just to keep the Cavaliers competitive with the Golden State Warriors in the Finals, the burden of sorting out this rotation is one that Blatt and his staff will happily take on.