Kevin Love: All-Star Snub

2016-02-03 Off By Mike Schreiner

Kevin-Love-Hair

Things have been a bit tumultuous around the Cleveland Cavaliers lately, to say the least. There’s been plenty written about the issues the team is dealing with right now as far as the coaching change and new style of play. Lost in the recent news was the fact that LeBron James was the only Cavalier selected as an Eastern Conference All-Star. To some this came as no surprise, as Kyrie Irving missed most of the first two months of the season and wasn’t going to be selected unless he was voted in by the fans. But what about Kevin Love? Did he deserve to join James in Toronto? Not only should the answer among NBA coaches have been yes, but the decision should have been easier than many people think.

Record

It’s a simple fact that the team that is in first place in their respective conference typically gets more than one All-Star. Last year the Golden State Warriors had a pair of All-Stars in Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, while the Atlanta Hawks had a whopping four representatives. Does it really make sense for the Cavaliers to have just one All-Star, especially when James is having one of the worst years of his career in terms of shooting from the perimeter, and the Eastern Conference is the deepest it’s been in years? How can the rest of the coaches in the league justify giving the Cavaliers only one All-Star and giving multiple spots to teams like the Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors? The answer is they can’t, but they did it anyways.

Counting Stats

Love is currently averaging 16.1 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in 32.6 minutes per game. While these may not seem like astounding numbers, consider that he has spent the entire season as the second or third—and sometimes fourth if J.R. Smith is hot—option for the Cavaliers. Now consider that the only players in the entire league who rank higher than Love in both points and rebounds are Demarcus Cousins, Andre Drummond, and Pau Gasol. Drummond and Cousins are both far and away the focal points of their respective teams, and therefor are likely to always score more points per game than Love. Gasol is in a similar situation to Love, although he is more often the second option for the Bulls after Jimmy Butler, and is averaging just 1.1 more points and 0.2 more rebounds. Considering that Gasol was seen by many to have an excellent chance of being chosen as an All-Star, it’s difficult to see why Love isn’t an equally deserving candidate, especially considering the Cavaliers’ superior record.

Analytics

While Love’s PER of 19.64 is on the border for a typical All-Star, there are several reasons for this. Love’s relatively pedestrian shooting percentages of 42.5% and 37.1% from three pull his PER down, so does his overall usage. Sharing the court with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving means that Love simply won’t have the ball as much as most other All-Star level players. This has a negative effect on his PER as volume of shots per minutes on the court is a significant part of the formula.

Another advanced statistic that sheds a more positive light on Love’s contributions this season is Real Plus-Minus, a measure of a players’ on-court impact. Love currently sports an RPM of 5.97, which is the thirteenth best mark in the entire league, and better than players like Chris Bosh, Paul George, Drummond, Gasol, Jimmy Butler, and James Harden. While some would argue that this statistic favors players on good teams, it should be pointed out that Ricky Rubio currently ranks eighteenth in the league in RPM, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are just 14-36 this season. Love may not be having his best year statistically, but his combination of shooting, passing, and rebounding have a tremendous positive impact on the Cavaliers.

Bosh and Aldridge

Other comparisons that show how Love’s statistics are affected by being part of a “Big Three” are how his numbers look against those of two of his peers who have experienced similar situations. When Chris Bosh joined forces with James and Dwyane Wade on the Miami Heat, he went from averaging 24 points and 10.8 rebounds per game in his last season with the Raptors to never averaging more than 18.7 points and 8.3 rebounds over the next four seasons, and those numbers were from his first season in Miami. During his last two seasons playing with James, Bosh averaged 16.4 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, numbers that are less impressive than Love’s current stats. Bosh also averaged just 1.4 assists per game during this time, and while he shot a hair over 50% from the field during those four years, he never once shot even league average from deep, which was critical due to his role in spacing the floor for James and Wade. Bosh is a better defender than Love, but his numbers were noticeably worse, and yet he was an All-Star in all four years the “Heatles” were together.

LaMarcus Aldridge has experienced a similar drop in numbers to Love during his first year with the San Antonio Spurs. After averaging at least 21 points, eight rebounds, and 1.7 assists over the previous five seasons, this season Aldridge is averaging 16.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.3 assists  in 29.4 minutes per game. While he is shooting a solid 49.5%, Aldridge has also missed all 11 of his three point attempts this season after shooting a respectful 35.2% on 105 attempts last season. In terms of analytics, his PER is 20.03, a bit above  Love’s, but his RPM of 0.40 is significantly worse, ranking 114th in the NBA. His lack of rim protection has been apparent with Tim Duncan sitting out due to knee issues, especially against elite offenses. Love and Aldridge were often compared to one another during their years with their original teams, and that comparison remains as they have moved on to playing for contenders. Neither of these players have suddenly gotten worse, they’ve just made sacrifices in the name of winning. Yet for some reason Aldridge—whose numbers are similar or worse almost across the board—was named an All-Star while Love was not.

While many lament the decline of Kevin Love’s numbers, he remains an incredibly skilled player who has made extremely positive on-court contributions for the Cavaliers in the season-and-a-half he has spent with the team. He may not be putting up the best numbers of his career in a traditional sense, but he has been a critical part of the Cavaliers becoming the best team in the Eastern Conference. For that reason and several others, there is no doubt that he should have been chosen to represent the Cavaliers at next month’s All-Star Game in Toronto.

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