Podcast Episode 93: Back2Backs to KLove’s back, but is Mozzy back?
2016-03-28https://soundcloud.com/ctb-5/episode-93-back-to-backs-to
This podcast “must have back. “ Here’s your iTunes link.
Ben I and talked about the large variance between Kevin Love’s (and to a lesser extent, Kyrie Irving’s) good games and poor games, and tried to sort through whether it was mostly mental, physical (back still an issue?), or some combination. Whatever the case, the numbers show that the Cavs as a team are really bad on the second night of back to backs and that Love and LeBron are a big part of that problem.
We played Potent Perceptions and discussed Mozgov’s improved offense and even tried to gauge Delly’s next contract value.
In preparation for Potent Perceptions, one of the things I noticed when looking through the data was that the Cavs seem to be settling for more 3s when they are on the second night of a back to back, which aligns with their lowered FTrate and the general dropoff in their “athletic” stats (steals/blocks).
Ben also surmised that the Cavs jack up too many 3s when they fall behind, trying to make it all up right away instead of patiently executing their offense. As promised in the podcast, I looked that up for him. It’s presented in the chart below. Ben is correct, the Cavs shoot more 3s and generally shoot them at a lower percentage when they are behind. In this chart, the Y-axis is being used for both 3-point rate and percentage. It’s worth noting the league extremes for both:
3P%:
Warriors: 41.6% – Lakers: 31.9%
3Pr:
Rockets: 37.1% – Bucks: 18.9%
The X-axis is point differential. NBA.com bins this in increments of 5. I just took the midpoint of each bin.
The 3-point percentage is all over the map, I’m not sure how meaningful it is, but clearly, the Cavs are shooting a much higher rate of 3-pointers when they are behind.
Sound off below! How well do you do in Potent Perceptions? Be honest, can you tell the difference between Corey Brewer and Jeff Green? If so, are there any players you sometimes confuse?
Good work. You guys were kinda all over the place.
What I love most about CtB podcasts is that I know as soon as I hear the phrase “let’s wrap this up”, I know there is at least another 20 minutes of gold to listen to :)
Keep it up boys.
This was a packed podcast tom and ben! Sometimes there is more random stuff than actual NBA analysis…which I’m ok with cuz I’m usually welding while listening, but you guys really unpacked a bunch. Potent impressions or whatever is honestly one of the greatest ideas the blog has ever seen…because as a fan and not an expert the difference between impression and fact can be huge if I’m not careful. I really only have two responses to the podcast. 1: Mozgov hold the key to a Cleveland championship. He disturbs so many shots on d and can be such a… Read more »
Tomorrow we need a post about everything that’s great.
Go OKC, Up 13 on Toronto tonight…
Up 20 now. Would be nice to be 3 games up on a Lebron rest day.
The player that CtB hates, Lebron James, was just named player of the week.
Kyrie is about to become very zoned in and focused from this point on. Looking forward to that!
I made the mistake of saying that Jeff Green was marginally better than Corey Brewer in the podcast.
Glad Ben called me out on that. Did a little more digging today. Green is really bad defensively.
Yes. Green sucks worse than Brewer. But really neither one of the them moves the needle at all.
Whelp. No LeBron Tuesday. Sucks.
Re your discussion whether Love’s inconsistencies are mental or physical. I say they are neither, but Kyrie. It’s obvious that KLove perforns better when he is the second option and Irving isn’t on the court. Irving doesn’t seem to get Love the ball in the right spots as much as Delly or LeBron does either.
The Kyrie on back to backs could be down to how teams go about preparing for opponents during the regular season. I may be way off but I imagine on a back to back there is very little in the way of scheming for a particular opponent other than fairly generic stuff like “get back in transition”, “contest shots”, etc. Kyrie is such a ridiculously gifted offensive player that by talent alone he can dominate most opposing PGs without being overly prepared about how to attack them. Conversely he is such an ungifted defensive player that opponents with very little… Read more »
This is a great point and it’s also why talented teams always win in the NBA over try hard role player teams like last years Hawks and Celtics and this years Celtics.
Good night guys. Time zone problems..
East coast time sucks.
The Philippines isn’t on east coast time..
It’s 1:30 pm east coast…..
Guess it’s 4:20 in the Cols house
Fig 1. Danny Green
Dancer on the Cavs.
Key player on a title team in the Spurs.
Also, cut by the Spurs. He sucked. Then he got better. The Cavs weren’t incorrect to cut him and he doesn’t become a decent player without getting cut a few times.
Dude has sucked this year though. JR Smith>>Danny Green in 2015-2016.
The Spurs were also correct in giving him another chance and help him develop.
As long as the standing is 1-0, Danny Green has been better for the Spurs than JR Smith is for the Cavs. ;)
JR is the better player though.
The Cavs, since Griffin took over from incompetent GM #1 who took over for incompetent GM #2, Ferry, has shown the ability to find role players that fit well with the team. The Cavs really are a model organization since Griffin came here.
^ Yep. Just like RC Buford of the Spurs. Since you brought it up…
Fig. 2 RC Buford, Spurs GM.
And you mentioned Griffin finding good role players that fit well with the team. I thought you only recognize superstars and all the others are irrelevant to you? You’re a funny simpleton..
Huh?
You are not making any sense.
You just can’t comprehend.
Role players are irrelevent. Only stars matter.
David Blatt made Kyrie a better defensive player.
I think Mike Brown deserves some credit there. When Blatt took over, Irving turned a corner on defense and had very low turnovers. He kept that up under Blatt for the most part. But we didn’t get to see much Blatt coaching him this year.
Oh geez didn’t say that right. I meant Kyrie had turned a corner under Brown on defense by season’s end. He kept that up when Blatt took over.
The good news is that there are no back to backs in the playoffs. This is a good thing considering how much this team struggles on those games.
Not to start another EuroGenius vs Lue post, but the arrogant non-rookie coach had a much more favorable schedule when it comes to back to backs and time to rest than Lue has this season.
Overall, I’m not convinced coaching matters all that much in the NBA, unless you get a great coach like Spo or Pop, everyone else seems to just be mediocre.
How could you label David Blatt as arrogant?
Hard to say how much coaching matters when you have Lebron on the team, but it’s clear that your so called ‘Eurogenius’ is a much better coach than Lue.
That isn’t clear at all. Blatt nearly blew the Bulls series all by himself.
I think that Eurogenius was a good xs and os coach who had no idea how to relate to NBA players and arrogantly labelled himself as not a rookie. No one respected him after that.
Lue, is finding his way with lineups, but it’s obvious that the players respond to him and respect him. This is much more important than xs and os and will result in Lue growing into the job and getting better at that stuff. Managing the locker room is job #1.
Blatt will never lose to the D-league Grizzlies tho.. Or the CBA Nets.
It’s not obvious to me at all that the players ‘respond to and respect Lue’. If that wasn’t the narrative that was pushed when Blatt was canned, I doubt that anyone would even be thinking that. It seems more likely that they mostly ignore him, much as they did Blatt. The team certainly isn’t doing the things Lue planned to implement when he took over. We’ll see in the playoffs. I think Lue will be in over his head in some of those matchups, whether the Cavs win or lose. As I posted here after the Blatt firing when all… Read more »
Who is going to beat the #1 team in the East? If LeBron and at least one of Irving and Love stay healthy they should romp through the playoffs.
The Finals will be tough, but they did have a 2-1 lead on the GSW because LeBron went nuts.
The Raptors will be tough, but I think the Cavs have a decent shot to take them. Unless Lue kills them, of course.
If it’s not obvious that Blatt is better than Lue, how is it obvious that the players are responding to him. They aren’t playing any better. It doesn’t look a ton different. I don’t think there is any way to tell if Blatt or Lue is a better coach. I agree with Cols’ assertions that Blatt was a better game planner, and it SEEMS as if Lue is better with the guys… Lue has as many losses in 32 games as Blatt did in 41. Give a little bit extra to Lue since he’s had more games in less days,… Read more »
EuroBrain was 19-20. It took him some time to adjust.
That was with Saint Weirdo and the corpse, of the corpse of Shawn Marion.
The “corpse of the corpse of Shawn Marion” is a great description
Lue would have been 10-29 with that garbage team.
The Spurs success doesn’t point to their system at all. It points to getting good players. You get good players in the NBA and you win. Spurs couldn’t win last year? So they go out and get one of the better FAs on the market.
I don’t think the trio of Duncan-Parker-Ginobili would be viewed the same if they were in a franchise like say the Knicks..
And doesn’t their evaluation of talent points to how great their system is?
Um, DPG would be ever bigger stars if they were on the knicks.
Yes, the Spurs ahve a great organization. No doubt about that. But the organization knows the best way to win is to get star players and hold onto them at all costs.
What? How? Bigger market? Because there’s absolutely no way they can win 4 titles together (5 for Timmy) in 3(!!!!) seperate decades if they were on a garbage franchise like the Knicks.
Patty Mills. Bruce Bowen. Robert Horry. Stephen Jackson. Danny Green. So on so fort..
KEY PLAYERS from title teams. Never were superstars at any point. Is that because of DPG?
The key players on those teams were
Robinson, Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, and at the end Leonard and now Aldridge.
If you put those players on the Knicks they win 4-5 Titles over 20 years.
Cols.. You don’t know the value if a system in a franchise and recognizing role players or any other contributions within a team. It won’t matter to you what I (or anyone with a half mind) would say because you’re mind is already set at a one way street. I get it, (only) Superstars = titles for you. Stay as simpleton as you are bud..
Because superstars = title.
Role players = the 2015-2016 Celtics who are going absolutely nowhere fast.
Haha sure troll..
I must say that I disagree with few things more than this statement…
This is crazy. So Irving is terrible on defense and it’s LeBron’s fault? Leb needs to conserve his energy because he knows he has to carry this team in the playoffs? Last year’s playoffs happened. They have another gear and you will see it soon. Also, the 2007 Cavs an the 2014-2015 Cavs didn’t lose in the Finals because LeBron was playing point forward, they lost because JR freaking Smith was the 2nd best player on those teams in the Finals. Also and too and more, LeBron lead the team in rebounding last playoffs, please remember this before making fun… Read more »
We don’t have JR in 2007 ;)
Hmmm.. Wilt didn’t won the titles when he averaged 50 a game .. So nope
Cols, I know that you only see the world in black and white, but they did not say Kyrie’s poor defense is LeBron’s fault. They only suggested the question that maybe certain parts could IMPROVE if LeBron was not doing those things… Honestly, I don’t even know why I’m posting this, you won’t listen anyhow…
All have been much more efficient players when playing next to Lebron except Love.
Between Wade Bosh Irving Love I mean.
Really liked the “LeBron turns everyone into a role player”. I think in some way, it’s true. Have any “star” players (Kevin, Kyrie, DWade, Bosh) really been better off by playing with LeBron?
All their teams have been better off. Isn’t that the point?
Agree. When LBJ leaves, all of his teams are much worse. That is why he remains the true MVP in the league.
Phenomenal podcast. The LeBron turns everyone into a role player segment was great, and isn’t necessarily an indictment against him. You could do a deeper dive into that in an article.
I think we all assumed Kyrie getting back to 100 percent was a foregone conclusion and because he took so long to get back, we expected that to be sooner rather than later. but we don’t have too much knowledge on fractured kneecaps. So maybe this regular season is lost for him, but he’ll continue to improve during the postseason where there isn’t any back to backs.
I think there has been much greater variation in Kyrie’s play than Kevin’s. Kyrie has had a really challenging season. And the most challenging portion has yet to arrive. Tremendous opportunity for growth.
Curry’s incredible improvement on defense in the last two seasons give me hope that Kyrie can get there someday as well.
I could see Delly signing with the Spurs this summer. I could also see Pop making him as effective as Tony Parker.
Nope. Parker is a true star. Delly does not have that kind of talent.
All I know is that when the Cavs play the Homeless Man’s Cavs Tuesday there will be a lot of threes and not a lot of defense.
Haven’t had the chance to listen yet (but I will tomorrow), but it makes total sense to me that the Cavs take a lot of crappy 3s on the second night of back to backs, since it’s the laziest shot in the game. Unfortunately for the Cavs, they aren’t a great 3 point shooting team this year, so these lazy shots are generally just bad shots.