5-On-5: Best/Worst Case Scenarios

With just five games remaining in this regular season (and maybe not even that many that matter if the Cavs can clinch the top seed in the East with a combination of wins and Toronto losses), five of us C:tBers took some time to contemplate and prognosticate the potential best and worst of five Cavs-related scenarios. Ben, Robert, Tom, Nate and yours truly posited both the most optimal and most dismal outcomes for the post-season, LeBron’s legacy, Kyrie and Kevin’s future, Ty Lue’s job security and this summer’s free agency priorities. In a season full of coaching changes, social media storms, inconsistencies, but still a likely end result of a team that should at the very least maintain the best conference record and opportunity to represent the East in the NBA Finals… anything is possible. As Tom so eloquently put it…

“I’ll limit my spectrum to the middle 90% of probabilities that I project. After all, you can come up with an infinite amount of cases ranging from Whatever Cols Thinks will happen to Cold Death of the Universe triggered by Kyrie Irving getting stuck on a screen.”

So, follow along… and take your own best guesses… after all, what’s the worst that could happen?

1) The Post-season

Ben: The Cavs need the Warriors and Spurs to have an epic seven game battle in the Western Conference Finals. From there, the Cavs would have the best chance against a tired Warriors team that would have spent a ridiculous amount of energy following up last season’s title with a historical regular season. The combination of fatigue and a false sense of security could allow a clicking and fresh Cavaliers team to overpower the defending champs. If Lue were to have the courage to go with strong defensive lineups (sans Love and Irving) with a sprinkle of scoring (one of them at a time), Cleveland would bring home its first championship in 52 years. Conversely, if the new Aldridge/Leonard Spurs machine busts through the Warriors, the Cavs could have a miserable time trying to solve the Spurs offense. Cleveland would have even more trouble exploiting a nearly impenetrable defense that has shown itself to be up to any LeBron James task. For the third straight season, LeBron’s primary defender would hoist the Finals MVP trophy. Only this time, Leonard wouldn’t be considered an up-and-comer. He would finish the season as a first-team All-NBA, two-time Defensive Player of the Year, second in MVP vote (he’s my MVP) and two-time Finals MVP. For all the glamour of Curry, the league would be Leonard’s.

Robert: The best case for the Cavs, whether they win or lose the championship, would be them rediscovering last year’s defensive intensity — appropriately adjusted for the two missing cogs from last year’s run, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, who can struggle on that end. If this team can prove to itself that it can defend with intensity and not physically break down in the process, they should be staring at a second straight trip to the Finals where they’ll have, at least, a puncher’s chance to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy in June. If, however, Irving isn’t able to shake himself out of his recent funk and that the team is actually suffering from a blown fuse — so they can stand there flipping their collective switch on and off as long as they’d like — it’s not out of the realm of possibility that some other plucky Eastern Conference team could get hot and ride that lightning all the way to the Finals.

Nate: Best Case? NBA Championship. It’s still a possibility. The Warriors have won nothing yet, the Spurs neither. Anything can happen, and the Cavs are as talented as anyone. Worst Case? A nearby star goes supernova and the ensuing gamma ray burst destroys all life on earth (or at least half of it). In that light, a first round playoff exit doesn’t seem so unfortunate, but about as likely. I’d say the worst case is probably a second round playoff exit at the hands of Miami. I won’t even mention the “I” word.

Tom: Best Case: Cavs morph into a lock-down half-court defense and rebounding juggernaut. Kyrie Irving turns the tide in a couple of tightly contested games, and LeBron makes everyone look silly for thinking anyone else is the best player in the world. The Cavs suffocate the Warriors, frustrating Draymond into some Sheed-like outbursts, and the Cavs go on to win, 4-2. Worst Case: The Cavs don’t have that other gear that everyone assumes they have and they fall to the Bulls, Pistons, or Pacers in the first round. The Heat represent the East in the NBA Finals and the LeBron back to Miami rumors reach a fever pitch. Leaning: I find it almost impossible to prognosticate wins and losses for this current Cavs squad. If they went 12-1 en route to the Finals I would not be surprised. If they got taken to Game 7 in the first round and got bounced in the second I wouldn’t be surprised. My gut tells me that LeBron is going to will the team into whatever system/pace/style they need to grind though the East, and they will get flattened by the Warriors in 4 or 5.

EG: In my best case scenario, all of the drama, from ditching Blatt… to Sub-Tweets… to dumping Andy… to extra-curricular endorsements… turns out to be just so much smoke screen disguising the true galvanization of this team. It turns out that while the Warriors were busy trying to beat MJ’s Bulls, the Cavs were using apparent dysfunction as the ultimate weapon in a historic game of playing possum. What follows is a series of insanely gratifying exorcisms of past ghosts including: SVG and the re-animated corpse of the ’09 Magic in the current Pistons in the first round; the Sockless Curmudgeon, Way Of Wade and the remains of the South Beach Heatles in the second round; the surprisingly resilient, yet instantly detestable and ridiculously coiffed Boston Celtics in the ECF; and finally an epic showdown with the (wait for it) San Antonio Spurs in the Finals that concludes with the first Championship in Cleveland since 1964. Pop, Timmy, Manu and Tony announce their collective retirement as LBJ tearfully hoists the Larry O’Brien trophy (the subsequent meme of which forever replaces the “crying MJ” meme). In my worst case scenario… the Cavs’ struggle is real, as they stumble to a first round ouster while playing down to the competition one last time. I have to purchase new flat screen to replace the shattered remains of my current one…

2) LeBron James

Ben: See above. If LeBron brings home a championship, his entire career and “Decision”-making would be justified. He would be rightfully celebrated as one of the top five players in NBA history, and his regular season drama would be considered a masterful job of sports psychology. If he performs poorly and the Cavaliers get blown out, any wrong move would bring a firestorm from the media. He couldn’t leave Cleveland if he were the one to play poorly. For the record, I don’t see him leaving under almost any circumstances. Honestly, the worst thing for him might be if Love and Kyrie play well enough to prevent his Banana boat team from becoming a reality, but not well enough to really give them a future chance.

Robert: It may seem odd to say this, but I think the best case for LeBron James would be a worse playoff performance than the historic run he put together leading the undermanned 2015 squad. Okay, not a worse performance… maybe just a less Herculean one. The rationale being that if James — while still the straw that stirs this wine and gold drink — actually gets help from the rest of the NBA’s highest paid roster, he might have something left in the tank and some tricks up his sleeve come Finals time, even if his own stats wow you less than his 2015 playoff line. Worst case? If James’s current run of excellent health comes to a halt — with something major or even with a smaller, nagging injury that doesn’t let Number 23 play up to his own high standards—the Cavs will quickly find themselves staring at a long off-season for James to heal.

Nate: Best Case? James transforms into the best off the ball forward the game has ever seen: Magic, Dr. J, Scottie, and Karl Malone in one. He sublimates his ability to dominate the ball and learns how to make his plays in the post and as a roll-man, barreling toward the rim for backboard shattering dunks, and laser passes to tomahawk throwing big men and corner three-ball assassins. Worst case? LeChuck’s Revenge: Isos from 22 feet, ball domination, long twos, and horrific defense. If LeBron can’t move without the ball, close out on shooters,  or box out, we’re due for a long (yet short) postseason.

Tom: Best Case: LeBron wins three more titles (all with the Cavs) and for the next hundred years men, women, children, and robots argue whether or not Michael Jeffrey Jordan or LeBron Raymone James is the G.O.A.T.

Worst Case: LeBron’s ’10-’12 demons resurface, he chokes under pressure, he fails to win another ring, his back gives out before he can set enough all-time records to make up for the lack of MJ-like championships. Instead of breaking the Curse, he’s seen as its apex, and his NBA-wide legacy is that of a top 10 all-time player instead of top 2. Leaning: LeBron just wields so much influence over the rest of the league. He’s honestly at the point where the only thing he needs to cement his legacy as the second best player of all time is to win a championship for his long-suffering hometown. If he gets desperate, instead of running, I see him finding some very creative ways (think: Klutch) to make sure the Cavs always have the best shot possible. I have to believe he gets it done once.

EG: In the best case scenario, LBJ wins the first of his three Cleveland Championships, taking down the Spurs in a historic series, reducing the “didn’t make it out of the West” Warriors to an NBA footnote as the winningest team to not win a Championship in a season. Bron continues to alter his game so he can play just long enough to pull a Ken Griffey Sr., and spend his last season alongside his son Bronny.

Worst Case, instead of the no-win situation of leaving home for a second time, LeBron instead decides (a la Jim Brown) to hang it up and retire at age 31 to go make movies, rep athletes and generally become an entrepreneur. Years later, Bronny signs with Klutch and spurns Cavs for the Warriors.

3) Kyrie & Kevin

Ben: Both of them play better than they ever have on the defensive end, somehow turning a switch to shut off the opposing teams Pick and Roll destruction. Meanwhile, they make their open shots and punish teams for paying too much attention to LeBron. Worst case, the Cavs win in spite of them. Lue sits both of them for long stretches and it becomes clear to even the casual fan that Delly and Frye are better team players on a championship squad. They get traded in the off-season win or lose (maybe that’s actually best case for them as well).

Robert: Irving’s best would simply push him back into the conversation as one of the top young talents in the league. That probably means a couple of monster offensive games where he, not LeBron James, takes and makes some big, legend-making shots.

Throw in a general uptick in his defensive focus and Cavs fans will, once again, get to see a bright future and an even brighter present. Nothing could deflate Irving’s sails, though, more than suffering another injury that shelves him for a significant stretch of the playoffs (or beyond). Being a ball-sticking, low efficiency volume shooter who plays only matador defense wouldn’t be so great either. If Love’s playoff performance matches up to the very small sample size we saw from him last year, I think Love will have his share of big moments. In the three games he played against the Boston Celtics before suffering a separated shoulder, Love averaged 18 points and nearly eight boards a game. His performances weren’t a model of consistency — he followed up a 19/12 Game One with a 13/6 Game Two in which he battled foul trouble — but he played with his motor at full bore which has not always been the case in either of the last two regular seasons. The bleakest outlook would be a healthy Love shooting under 30% from three and rarely seeing the floor in the fourth quarter.

Nate: The K-Love we saw against the Hornets is the best case scenario: master of working out of the corner with shots, drives, passes, and trips to the rim and the line – plus, timely threes from the wing and the top of the key, acceptable defense, and dogged rebounding that sustains into crunch time. If he can be great at those things, then he helps even more than high-post Kevin Love, especially when he plays with high-post LeBron. Worst case scenario? We find out that Kevin is just that kid from the Hoopers in a big man costume, and he alligator arms his way through the playoffs or gets squashed under Amir Johnson’s foot. 

Best case Kyrie? Game one of the 2015 NBA finals (before the injury): he was transcendent shooting, passing, and defending. Worst case? Even worse than the dreaded “I” word – the second half we saw against the Hawks last week: pull-up bricks, turnovers, and turnstile defense. And I fear that Kyrie has some off the court train wreck capabilities too. Keep him away from any Kardashians, Jenners, or singers with reality shows. 

Tom: Kyrie Best Case: The best case is he’s the most unstoppable one-on-one player in the eastern conference and becomes the perfect compliment to LeBron. But he’s got to learn how to set a screen, how to USE a God-Forsaken screen, how to be decisive when he catches, build up chemistry with LeBron, and not be a total liability on defense. I’ve been watching Kyrie since his rookie year. The improvements in those areas are marginal to be honest. Kyrie Worst Case: Injuries pile up and limit his quickness and jumper and since he’s a poor system player and awful defender he quickly becomes like Gilbert Arenas. Bright for a bit, shockingly quick collapse after the big contract.

Kevin Best Case: He wins a ring in Cleveland and hits the game winning shot in the closeout game after the defense collapses on a Kyrie drive and LeBron actually trusts Love enough to take the game winning shot. He buries it, and the idea that he never fit in or guys didn’t like him is literally never talked about again by any species until the end of time. He takes some Instagram pictures of he and LeBron shopping and Banana Republic together. Kevin Worst Case: He’s traded for role players that don’t move the needle and he becomes an all-star again. Wait, is this the worst case for the Cavs or for Kevin Love personally?

EG: Best Case, Kyrie and Kevin both find enough ways to contribute on the offensive end to make up for their defensive short-comings, becoming net positives for post-season success. Kyrie hits a clutch three to pull out a critical game, and KLove similarly has a sequence where he takes a tough charge then fires an inbounds pass 80 feet to a streaking LBJ for a back-breaker dunk. Both guys finally figure out their optimal place on this team, they win a Championship and gain an insatiable hunger for more. Worst Case, Kyrie’s incessant dribbling and Kev’s disappearing act lead directly to an early ouster of the Cavs from the playoffs. Both are shipped off for pennies on the dollar in the off-season and the specter of what might have been haunts them and this team for all time.

4) Tyronn Lue

Ben: Lue doesn’t get exposed as being over his head in the playoffs. He helps LeBron lead the team to the promised land, and even makes the necessary lineup/rotation adjustments to give the Cavs a defensive chance. Worst case, the team continually trots out lineups that get destroyed on the defensive end, LeBron starts looking at him like he looked at Blatt (aka, not at all). Lue gets fired immediately after the season.

Robert: Lue is a big wild card in these playoffs. I expect to see him get out-coached a handful of times, regardless of whether the Cavs make the Finals or not. So, my best case for Lue would be that the whole league gets a couple of “Don’t worry… Ty Lue’s gonna be a heck of a coach” moments. I don’t know what those moments will look like — and, hopefully, they won’t come from on-court action and not Lue’s handling of some outside controversy — but coaches can have these moments just the same as players. But is it completely ridiculous to imagine Stan Van Gundy making Lue look so completely over his head in a first round playoff series that the Cavs players lose confidence and fall to either Boston or Miami in the second round? Unfortunately, not.

Nate: Best case: the guy who calmly took over the defense from Mike Longabardi, and politely asked LeBron to stop tweeting. If Lue can keep being the self-effacing, quiet yet effective leader who puts the onus on the players, then the Cavs have a shot at winning it all. If he fails to adjust, stubbornly sticks to rotations when things aren’t working (like during the end of the Atlanta game), and doesn’t hold his best players accountable, then he can’t win, cause the inmates are running the asylum. Despite all the best case scenarios though, I still don’t know if I trust him in a coaching duel against Popovich or Kerr.

Tom: Best Case: Improbably, the coach responsible for breaking a 50+ year title drought in Cleveland is a guy whose name 90% of Clevelanders do not pronounce correctly (or do not even know who he is). That changes overnight. He gets a long term contract with the Cavs. Worst Case: He gets fired by the Cavs and winds up as a defensive assistant for the Lakers and they suck and he gets fired from that job too. The NBA outlaws his tall chairs.

EG: Probably the best case scenario is that the method to Lue’s madness when it comes to odd rotations, refusal to call timeouts and sticking with guys when they’re having bad games becomes clear and pays off with a deep run that leads to a title. He becomes only the second coach (after Riles in 2006) to take over a team halfway through a season and win a Championship. Worst Case, he gets out-coached thoroughly by The Hedgehog in the first round and hits the unemployment line faster than his replacement, Mark Jackson, can say “Mama, there goes that man!”

5) Free Agency

Ben: They re-sign Matthew Dellavedova and Timofey Mozgov after their successful playoff runs. They trade Kevin Love for youthful length on the perimeter and some future picks. They look long and hard at a Clippers trade to bring Chris Paul to Cleveland for Irving, before ultimately pulling the trigger knowing that Delly and Paul could share the backcourt at times. Worst case, they get trounced in the playoffs. Love and Kyrie play horribly in huge minutes killing their trade value. LeBron tries to get Team Banana Boat, but the other teams won’t cooperate. In a desperate attempt to get a better supporting cast, the Cavs trade everyone not named LeBron at only 40 cents on the dollar while forfeiting every conceivable future asset. LeBron leaves anyway and the Cavaliers go from having potentially four first overall picks on the same roster (2014), to no future picks and a miserable combination of half-dead vets and low-ceiling youngsters. Best case, the Cavs are defending NBA champions because they understood which players have real value.

Robert: The Cavs’ biggest win in free agency would be to jump in a time machine, head back one year and sign 2014-15 Timofey Mozgov. Mozgov has still been a useful spot player this year for the Cavs, but nothing like the efficient offensive player and defensive anchor he provided them last year. Given Timo’s drop off in production, confidence and, finally, minutes this year, it’s tough to see the Cavs ponying up the $15 or so million it will likely still take to lock up Mozgov. The Cavs, working with little (or no) cap space might be better served bringing back Tyler Zeller on a 3-year, $30 million contract to join Tristan Thompson and Channing Frye in the Cavs’ center rotation. Worst case is losing Mozgov and being “encouraged” by GM LeBron to beef up the block by signing former Cavalier “enforcer” Kendrick Perkins.

Nate: Best case? Cavs keep Delly on an affordable contract, and use the Andy exception to add a quality role player at the center spot, and bring back the whole crew+ for a shot at a repeat. Worst case? Aliens invade and enslave the human race: only slightly less appealing than LeExodus II.

Tom: Best Case: The Cavs sign Pau Gasol and using the vet minimum, they pick up an athlete like Gerald Green and revitalize his career. The Cavs sign Delly long term, and he continues to get better. Kyrie moves to SG and learns how to play off ball more. Delly becomes like Andre Miller but an even better defender. If no Gasol, Mozgov signs for dirt cheap, hires a sports psychologist and becomes a force once again. Worst Case: The Cavs lose Delly to the Spurs which convinces Popovich to postpone his retirement. Golden State brings back Barnes. Durant and Westbrook leave OKC together to form a new superteam in the East. Someone other than the Cavs gives Aaron Craft a chance and he has a Whiteside-like coming-out party, leading the NBA in steals by double the next closest player.

EG: The best case scenario is the Cavs re-sign Delly and JR to decent deals and somehow figure out a way to pry one of the extra Philly big men (like Nerlens) away from the Sixers for some combo of future draft picks and trade exceptions. In my opinion, the worst case is the Cavs desperately trying to construct the LBJ banana boat “dream team” by ditching Kyrie and KLove (and probably Shump and others) for an aging CP3 and an ineffectual Melo. In all likelihood, this plan fails and the Cavs wind up losing on lesser trades where they get less value for Uncle Drew and the Banana Republican.