Five on Five: First Round 2016 Edition

Who or what aspect of the Pistons scares you the most? Is it enough to make this series competitive?

Cory Hughey: That Stan Van Gundy will find the filet of fish wrapper in his fanny pack with his steroid doctor’s number on it. If Caldwell-Pope, Stanley Johnson, and Reggie Jackson can get hot from downtown, we could experience traumatic déjà vu back to the 2009 Conference Finals. Good thing that’s probably not enough to make the series go any kind of distance. I picked the Cavs in five and I’ll stick with that. This Pistons team will be a threat in the future for sure, but they are just puppies growing into their paws at this point.

EvilGenius: While Andre Drummond is a beast in the middle, Reggie Jackson has over-achieved running the point and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has proven to be a better three and D guy than expected… the aspect of this Pistons team that scares me the most is The Master of Panic, aka Ron Jeremy’s doppelganger, aka The Hedgehog, aka Sweet Movember, aka the architect of the Cavaliers’ ’09 demise… Stan Van Gundy.

SVG knows the fear that lives in the hearts of Cleveland, and in the past, he’s always seemed to make the right adjustments to keep the Cavs on their heels. He’s the most experienced head coach in the EC playoff mix (granted Spo has more championships, although he has zero without LeBron), and that makes him a dangerous first test for Ty Lue to square off against. Ultimately, I don’t think the SVG factor will be enough to make the series competitive… though it should be enough to win Detroit a “Magic” YOLO-shooting game along the way. Ugh, I’m getting potato-head flashbacks already…

David Wood: Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson could wreak havoc. The Cavs have trouble stopping penetration, and I can’t think of a better player than Drummond to catch lobs and get easy put backs when Cavalier bigs are trying to stop Jackson layups. Drummond will have a six offensive board game and get the Pistons one win. Although, it’s interesting to note that Drummond gets almost two less offensive rebounds a game than his season average against the Cavs.

Nate Smith: Detroit’s bench is lethal: Aaron Baynes, Reggie Bullock, Steve Blake, Jodie Meeks, Stanley Johnson, Spencer Dinwiddie… They run deep and Van Gundy has the acumen to ride whatever hot hand emerges. Delly, Shump, Frye, Mozgov, RJ, and possibly Jordan McRae (he certainly scorched their bench in the final regular season game) will need to keep their heads on a swivel and have scouting reports on all these guys. The Cavs’ starters may need to play more minutes than we’d like them to if the Cavs’ bench can’t match the Pistons’.

Ben Werth: I’m afraid of randomly hot shooting series from Reggie Jackson. He is a beast getting into the lane in the Pick and Roll game, but he is not a good shooter. The Cavs should dare him to hoist like they did last season against Jeff Teague. It is the correct strategy, but sometimes good strategy is trumped by a hot shooting streak. And of course, Stanley Johnson reminds me a bit too much of Pietrus. Jodie Meeks’ return boosts the Pistons’ deep game. Still, I anticipate more “fool’s gold” makes from Jackson than anything that could make the Cavs sweat a long series.

What is your biggest concern about this Cavs team going into the playoffs?

Nate: Kyrie Irving has been consistently inconsistent this year, and a stretch of “bad Kyrie” could cost the Cavs playoff games, or even a playoff series against the wrong team. The East is littered with guards who’ve lit up Irving this year, too. It seems the plan is to put Kyrie with the second unit a lot too, which gives the potential for Irving to drag them down. Fortunately, he and the rest of the Cavs seem galvanized by adversity and not success. Perhaps a couple bad Kyrie games could push the Cavs to new heights. At least that’s what I tell myself.

EvilGenius: Aside from Ty Lue likely being in over his head (unless he’s been sandbagging us all from atop his mega-stack of phone books on which he perches…), my biggest concern is the general cohesiveness of the pieces of this Cavalier machine. LeBron (the engine) has been firing on all cylinders for almost the past month, but Kyrie (the clutch) has been slipping, Kevin (the axle) has been a bit out of alignment, and the bench has been leaking oil for a while. I was really hoping the tune-up of the last few weeks would have gotten them all in sync for the post-season, and there’s still the possibility that they got all of the junk out of their trunk and can hit the NOS for a deep playoff run… I just hope they don’t blow a tire on the way to the Finals.

Ben: Ty Lue: it is incredibly important that he be pragmatic with his lineups. He needs to have the confidence and control to play the Cavs’ best lineups, regardless of names or egos. I also don’t trust him to make the necessary in-game adjustments, but that is more of coaching staff issue. He will need to lean on his assistants for good strategy, but it is up to him to make the decisions that matter the most. He must be ready to sit Kyrie or Kevin if necessary.

Cory:  Off of the top of my head…the lack of chemistry on the court among the cornerstones of the team…their inability to hold a lead…their lack of depth on the wing if Shumpert isn’t fully healthy…

David: When the three-ball stops dropping, what is the Cavs’ game plan? I understand staying committed to taking 3s, but in the fourth quarter, with the game on the line, I don’t want LeBron launching step-back shots from behind the arc. I also don’t want to see Kyrie dribbling the ball into submission waiting for the shot clock to hit four so he can take a screen before launching a long two. Iso-LeBron isn’t a good go to for the end of games either.

Who will be the Cavs’ biggest surprise contributor?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRkXrdQPKDw

Ben Werth: Timofey Mozgov. It isn’t shocking that Mozzy’s knee is reported to have been a bigger issue than previously covered. It was clear to me all season that the big fella was out of sorts from the ground up. But that doesn’t mean that he can’t contribute now. He may need another surgery in the off-season, but he has nonetheless improved his play as the season has gone along, despite the rolling eyes of teammates. It clearly didn’t help him that Klutch wanted Tristan to be the starter all along. Regardless, the Cavs will need him against more than a few centers in these playoffs. Considering how much certain people have written him off, Mozzy would be a surprise contributor to some. It would be no surprise to me.

Cory: I’m going with the guy who has been laying pipe for months. J.R. Smith has a notorious history of folding into himself like a Slinky down a flight of stairs in the playoffs, but this is gonna be his year. He’s gonna hit seven or more threes in at least one game, and he’ll win that game for them.

Nate: Love is going to turn a corner this playoffs. His shot has ascended like a winged unicorn galloping o’er a rainbow before dropping into the basket during the last few weeks, and thus, his outside shooting percentages have been lofty. Marcus Morris won’t know what hit hit him. I expect Kevin to be the Cavs’ second best player this postseason, and I’ll be ticked off if Cleveland doesn’t consistently look for him. As long as his minutes get spaced, and he doesn’t wear down and stop rebounding in the fourth, he’s going to be a force.

David: If the Cavs are going far, it’s going to be Iman Shumpert. In the first round, the Cavs will need Shump to check Jackson if Reggie gets too comfortable. If they make it to the Finals, they would need him against Curry, Parker, Westbrook, or Paul. Shump went just 29.5% from deep this season. That number must change. When he was playing with the second unit this year, it wasn’t essential for him to hit 3s. If he gets run with the first unit, he has to hit them, because that group thrives from having such great spacing.

EvilGenius: I don’t know if it’s a surprise, but I think that Channing Frye will have a very productive series against the Pistons because Detroit doesn’t really have a perimeter defender tall enough to cover him on the outside. He’ll likely see the lion’s share of the big man minutes after TT and KLove (with Moz possibly out of the rotation… at least until Game 2 when Ty Lue realizes he “might have made a big mistake” not putting a big body on Andre the Giant). In any event, Frye should not only space the floor for the second unit, but he should also get some sneaky good rebounding numbers when Andre’s not in the game.

What First Round Eastern Conference playoff series do you think will provide the most fireworks?

David: The Miami-Charlotte series is going to be really intense. Both teams have top ten defenses, and Charlotte is in the top ten for offensive efficiency. I love that neither team has a true superstar. Instead, they have guys who aren’t afraid to try and take over the final minute of game. Kemba Walker will take a last shot without hesitation, and Joe Johnson still shows flashes that would make a coach afraid to leave him open if a game is on the line.

EvilGenius: Any playoff series featuring the Celtics is bound to provide a lot of fireworks… and when you add Al Horford and his gang into that mix, it should prove to be an extremely volatile first round matchup with the Hawks. One can only hope that Kelly Olynyk and Horford get into some odd limb-tugging contest, while Jae Crowder and Kyle Korver compare scars from last year. It also features two of the shortest and fastest PG’s in the East in Isaiah Thomas and Jeff Teague, so there should be a lot of run-and-gun offensive fireworks as well. Personally, I think the Celtics will find a way to scrap and claw their way through Atlanta… just in time to face the Cavs in round two.

Ben: I am really looking forward to Charlotte and Miami. Many people have failed to see the huge improvements from Kemba Walker and Marvin Williams. They have a deep and diverse lineup capable of playing 4-Out, and also going bullyball with Big Al. Jeremy Lin and Nic Batum have helped Walker create offense, while playing aggressive defense. On the other bench, Miami has flourished since moving Deng to the four to pair with Whiteside. The extra shooting at the PF from Deng has opened up more space for Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic to attack the paint. Dragic has been cold from deep all season, and Wade has smartly stopped taking threes, but either player is capable of changing the game with shots off the dribble. Joe Johnson’s size on the perimeter has allowed the Heat to switch far more frequently than early in the season. I expect long series and a Hornets upset.

Cory: I’m dialing this one back to the old school days of the underworld of New York City all the way back in 1931. The old guard Mafiosi such as Joe “The Boss” Masseria, were referred to as the Mustache Petes, and they were ultimately overthrown by the flexible Young Turks led by Lucky Luciano. The Celtics and Hawks gave us a treat today, and I think that sucker goes seven. If there was a gun in my mouth, I’d probably pick the Mustache Pete Hawks to win the series, but it’s gonna be close, and the thing about youth is that they’re reckless and don’t know where their boundaries are yet. The Celtics could have a gear we haven’t seen yet, and we probably have seen the best they had to offer a year ago. The Hawks are also a team for which tomorrow isn’t promised. Horford and Bazemore are about to jump into a Scrooge McDuck pool of money. Will they galvanize together for one last run, or will they give into the will of youth?

Nate: Cheating here. I’m filling this out after watching the Pacers upset the Raptors, Saturday. The Raps could be in real trouble. Indiana is a terrible matchup for them, and oh, by the way, Paul George is the best player in this series, and Myles Turner and 3J Miles are enormous X-Factors. Now that Ty Lawson’s come around, Indiana runs ten deep (I’m fascinated by the number of teams running ten man rotations so far this playoffs). Toronto can’t afford bad shooting nights from Lowry, DeRozan, and Valanciunas, and could use a lot more Bismack and Cory Joseph. Robert is the only CtBer to pick an upset here, and I’m tending to agree with him.

Western Conference?

EvilGenius: Though I had hoped desperately for a Clippers v. Mavs showdown, if only for the colorful fan signs and awkward Tweets that Mark Cuban might thumb out about Mrs. Hooper, there’s not a whole lot of drama to be found in the first round of the WC playoffs.

All of the favorites are favored by a significant margin, and there’s no Clips/Spurs faceoff like we saw in last year’s epic, seven-game extravaganza. So, I’ll cast my vote for the series that I think will feature the most technical fouls… Golden State vs. Houston (which is ironically a rematch of the WCF series from last year). If Draymond doesn’t get thrown out of a game against the Rockets in Houston, then he’s probably not ever getting ejected from a game. And, coming down off of the high of winning the most regular season games in history, the Warriors are at least semi-vulnerable to one loss, especially if James Harden goes unconscious. It won’t be enough to shake the core faith of die-hard media fanboys, but it will provide enough bulletin board material to galvanize Golden State for the remainder of the post-season.

Ben: The Clippers and the Trailblazers will likely be more entertaining, but I’m incredibly curious to see what Rick Carlisle comes up with against the Thunder. He is a master at scheming for the other teams’ offensive weaknesses. In the half-court, I expect the Mavericks to be able to slow down the Thunder’s offense. OKC still is missing that fifth guy to round out the Adams, Ibaka, Durant, Westbrook foursome. Carlisle will find a way to make Roberson and Saint Weirdo put up or lose. Dirk has been cold over the last month or so, but if he can get it going, the Mavs can hang with anyone. The Thunder is not a great defensive team and is prone to lapses at every level. The Mavericks have a veteran laden roster that is intelligent enough to take advantage of any misstep. The Thunder should win this series on the backs of Westbrook and Durant, but it will likely go longer than OKC would like.

David: The Dallas-OKC series is pitting brains against brawn. Rick Carlisle kept the Mavs chugging along throughout the season, despite injuries to nearly every key member of their team. Dirk averaged 18.3 points a night to go with 6.5 boards. He hit 36.8% of his 3s, which was just enough to make any pick he set extra frustrating. Leave him open, he hits a three. Cover him, a guy is going straight to the rim. OKC is more talented and more athletic, but they aren’t playing as well as they can. They didn’t hit sixty wins and they have two of the ten best players in the league. Dallas is maximizing every single aspect of their game. Even so, it might not be enough to beat the Thunder.

Cory: Even with today’s blowout of Houston, my Magic 8-Ball is predicting that Riley Curry will be able to go to Disneyland the first week of June, because her daddy won’t be in the Finals. At the very least Curry is going to get roughed up by Patrick Beverly in the first round, and Harden will win at least one game by himself. Then Steph’s drawing a career reputation on the line with Chris Paul in the second round. After, Curry’s got a date with the Spurs ground and pound attack in the conference Finals. Curry was running on fumes in last years Finals. This year, along with the pressure of chasing the win total, will have their effect on him. Spurs in six. PBev will be pebble that starts the landslide.

Nate: Cheating again. Picked Dallas for an upset before they go waxed and J.J. Barea got hurt, so… Clippers/Trailblazers is a match made in basketball heaven. The upstart Blazers are going to give the Clips a series, especially as L.A. continues to integrate Blake Griffin. The starting lineups go big in favor of the Clips, but Stott’s superiority as a game coach and Portland’s much deeper bench will make this competitive. Plus, we’ll get to watch hours of hack-a-Dre. If I’m Stotts, I’m going small a lot with Aminu at the four, Myers Leonard at the five, and Gerald Henderson or Allen Crabbe at the three. This puts five shooters on the floor to negate ‘Dre’s advantage inside and makes Blake have to defend in space. To channel my inner Bill Raftery, I expect this series to be C.J. McCollum’s “onions” debut .