5-On-5: Second Round 2016 Edition

While snatching a sweep of a first round opponent in the NBA playoffs is never a bad thing, as the Cavaliers and their fans have learned the last two years, one of the downsides can be the long wait for the next round to begin. Just like last season, the Cavs have had to figure out what to do with their idle hands in the eight days between series. At least this year, though, they aren’t grappling with the concept of how to compete without at least one (if not two) of their stars. Instead, they’re taking in movies, throwing around the pigskin and perfecting the “running man” dance. And, now that the series between Boston and Atlanta has finally concluded, they can focus their energy fully on figuring out the best way to handle the Hawks (the graphic above might give them some ideas, although they did a pretty thorough job of it in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals).

With these familiar birds set to fly into the Q on Monday, it was time for us to also stop sitting on our hands and get to answering some burning questions. Elijah, David, Cory and Ben joined me in some musing on the Cavs’ second round opponent, whether or not the wine & gold should keep their brooms handy, the continued veracity of the play of their star trio, the identity of series difference-makers and the other fascinating match-ups to keep a sharp eye on in the second round.

So, get a good grip… and squawk along with us. Round Two starts Monday!

1) Are you happy to see the Hawks in round 2, or would you have preferred the Celtics?

Eli: On the pod this week, I argued that I slightly preferred the Celtics due to their three point shooting deficiencies. However, I don’t believe it would have really mattered between the Hawks and Celtics, as the Cavs have seemed to have both of their numbers dating back to last season. The Hawks do present some challenges. They played perhaps the best defense in the league coming into the postseason, have two legit All-Stars in Horford and Millsap, and have a good supporting cast in Teague, Schroeder, Korver, and Bazemore.

David: I’m fine with the Cavs playing the Hawks in the second round. Cleveland seems to have their number, beating them all three meetings this season. They’re less scrappy than Boston. As we saw last year, the Celtics have no problem getting physical to close the talent gap. Brad Stevens would also be a handful to coach against at the ends of games if they were close.

Cory: This one sounds strange. The Hawks are a better team from top to bottom, and are a just a year removed from being the top seed in the East, but I’m glad they are the Cavs’ next opponent. I don’t doubt for a second that Brad Stevens would lay out a mandate that his rag tag bunch of misfit toys be as physical as they can be to make up the talent deficit. My primary objective is to win the second round series, and to have the team come out of it healthy.

Ben: I’m thrilled to see the Hawks. We basically know what the Hawks’ ceiling is, and the Cavs can take that down in a maximum of six games. The Celtics are both young enough and eccentric enough to possibly have a higher ceiling than we realize. The Hawks are a consistently better team than the Celtics, but the Celtics spare-part combo of players and willingness to go that extra dirty yard would have had me a bit worried.

EG: I suppose the Hawks are the slightly less annoying of two evils. As much as I can’t stand Al Horford’s fake-tough-guy routine (or his sister’s incessantly inane Tweets), or Kent Bazemore’s unwarranted bravado, or Denis Schröder’s inability to steer clear of the peroxide bottle… at least we’re avoiding large doses of Jae Crowder’s fake-tough-guy routine (and unwarranted bravado), Isaiah Thomas’ Napoleon complex and Sully & Smart’s inability to steer clear of the peroxide bottle. That, and we’re spared another round of the always “fun” game of “who’s smarter than Brad Stevens?” And, even though the Celtics would probably still be missing Avery Bradley, their ability to maim the rules of physicality (and their opponents) is the biggest reason I prefer seeing the Hawks.

2) The Cavs are healthy and the Hawks aren’t the regular season juggernaut they were last year, so what would prevent this from being a sweep?

Eli: I believe this series will not be a sweep this year. The Cavs are healthy and playing better as of late, however, the Hawks will be very focused and have the defensive acumen to force the Cavs into some tough games. I believe the Hawks are better this year than last even if the record doesn’t show it. I see the Cavs winning a grueling series in 5 with a lot of close games.

David: Two words, Paul Millsap. Millsap isn’t a LeBron stopper, but he covers him better than most players. He doesn’t smother LeBron and cause him to become a facilitator. However, he doesn’t just allow him to blow by for easy layups. He tricks the King into going Le-Iso (LeBron has it in his head that he can always score on him). It isn’t a smart basketball play though. Millsap holds his own more often than not. According to per 36 numbers from this year, the King was +6.3 with Millsap on the floor and +38.8 with him off the floor. The King will Le-Iso too much one game, and the Hawks will lose the series slightly gracefully, 4-1.

Cory: I still think the Cavs take the series in six at the most, but the danger with the Hawks is if the Cavs defenders don’t close out on shots from downtown. The Cavs allowed the Pistons to go off in games one and three for a combined 27/58 (46.5%) from downtown, by simply not closing out. The Celtics’ pesky perimeter defenders held the Hawks to below (31.5%) their regular season average (35%) from three point range. I fear that the Hawks will progress to their mean against the wine and gold.

Ben: If Teague were the backup and Schröder the full-time starter, I would be more worried about Atlanta. Schröder can be sneakily effective on the defensive end slithering around screens and claiming roll men when necessary. He quietly shut down Isaiah Thomas in the last two games of Round One. Teague was not nearly as successful. On the offensive end, Schröder gets into the paint at will, but occasionally tries to finish shots that are not available.The only thing that would truly affect the Hawks overall performance would be a breakout from the very talented young German. Tom is free to tease me if Schröder stinks up the joint in the second round. I think the Hawks get hot in Game 3 but the Cavs win in 5.

EG: Only sheer overconfidence by the Cavs would prevent Atlanta from joining Detroit in the dubious record book of losing 12 straight playoff games to one opponent. Sure, you can say that the Hawks peaked in the regular season last year, and were ill-prepared for a Cavs team that was galvanized by injuries into becoming a defensive torture chamber for their opponents. But, this year, Kevin is healthy, Kyrie is healthy and LeBron is as locked in as ever… while the Hawks struggled with a Boston team that lost its second best player. There’s always the vengeance factor, and though I do expect the games to be close, the Cavs should still be able to broom the Hawks in four games.

3) Did the way the Cavs’ Big Three played against the Pistons inspire confidence, or serve as smokescreen for flaws you noticed?

Eli: It was great to see the Big Three play well. The thing that inspires confidence for me is that there was not a game where all three had “it.” I do still have some concerns regarding the defense. The Cavs gave up almost 120 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of the Detroit series. While they did clamp down in the second halves for the sweep, this is not a trend that should continue if the Cavs look to win the championship this year.

David: The Big Three were balanced throughout the Pistons series in more ways than one. Each guy was getting touches and a chance to score. Each guy took a turn leading the team in energy. And, most importantly, all three stayed engaged. If Love wasn’t scoring, he was rebounding. If Kyrie wasn’t draining his shot, he still tried on defense. When LeBron didn’t have the ball, he was cutting to the rack. The Big Three figured out a way to maintain the output a Big Three needs to have on a nightly basis without each of them needing to follow a set script. The Cavs are in a great spot right now.

Cory: Special K, or the Big Three, or whatever you want to call them, were absolutely superb against the Pistons. I honestly expect more of the same against the Hawks, with the possible exception that Love may lose some minutes to Thompson, who will be needed to reassume his role as Paul Millsap’s daddy.

Ben: The play of Kevin Love and the second half play of LeBron James inspired confidence. Kevin played like the lumberjack Cavs fans have desired and James flipped the defensive switch in the second half of the each Round One game. The Cavs were not going to lose any of those games, despite what the scoreboard may have led you to believe. The King was directly responsible for the huge uptick in second half defensive efficiency. He will probably not cruise for the entire first half against a better Atlanta offense, but the screws can be tightened at anytime. As for Kyrie, I’m happy his shot is falling. Irving has shown himself to be a big moment player. I doubt his shooting percentages drop off a cliff. As long as his three ball is finding the bottom of the net, a lot of his warts can be hidden. It is also good to see his defensive effort. Though he is still in no danger of being a good defender, he is less of a catastrophe when he tries.

EG: Probably a bit of both, honestly. There’s no question that the ‘Land Lords all stepped up to collect the rent from Detroit. Not only were their averages gaudy and stellar, but they genuinely seemed to play together well when they shared the court. Outside of Kevin’s poor shooting in Game 4, or Kyrie’s suspect defense throughout, they didn’t really have too many lapses. However, at least some of those results can be attributed to the level of their opponent. Reggie Jackson’s an easier cover than Teague and Schröder. Horford and Millsap are much more mobile and able to cover out to the perimeter further than Drummond. And, the Hawks have legit three point shooting, versus YOLO three point shooting. Atlanta should be a somewhat stronger test for the Big Three to overcome… but still not enough to win a game.

4) Who will be the unexpected difference maker for each team in this series?

Eli: For the Hawks, I believe Bazemore will be the “unexpected” difference maker. He seems to really embrace the challenge in playing against LeBron, even though he’s had very limited success against the Cavs record wise. For the Cavs, I believe Shumpert will be the unexpected surprise. Atlanta has a bevy of guards that can cause defenses fits and the Shumpman will have to rise up to the challenge to play great D on one of them.

David: For the Cavs, it will be Delly. Irving’s tendency to dribble into the corner will cause Atlanta to trap him a lot and force him into turnovers. Delly will be called upon to guide the team for long stretches. He’s cool, calm, and Australian enough to pass out of any trap to a weak side shooter or a roll man. For Atlanta, Kent Bazemore needs to use his mental will power and force himself into playing like he’s seventy pounds more than he actually is. Then he can hang with LeBron and let Paul Millsap save his energy for the offensive end. If Bazemore is hitting his 3s, it will only help Atlanta’s crisp passing be even more dangerous.

Cory: Tristan Trevor James Thompson. Thompson totaled 18 points, 22 rebounds, and three blocks against the Pistons. If it were one game, it would have been a career performance from Brampton’s first son, but those are his combined totals for all four games of the series in 112 minutes of action. In a series against the Hawks, Tristan will prove to the world, and Boogie on the block, that he’s worth his direct deposit. This is a contract defining series for Tigger.

Ben: Everyone expects Tristan to be a difference maker against the Hawks, so he doesn’t quite fit the bill here. I will go with RJ. When the Hawks are clicking, there is a ton of weakside screen action to free shooters and create duck-in opportunities for their bigs. Bazemore makes a living on the weakside as a shooter or a slasher after primary action. RJ played quite well in the first round as the 3-D guy with Kevin and Bron upfront. If he can stay with an athletic Bazemore and adequately guard Horford or Millsap on switches, the Cavs small lineup will destroy the Hawk’s perceived advantage. I already mentioned Schröder. While I love being redundant, Tim Hardaway Jr is more under the radar and actually has the most potential to steal a game. That kid can go el fuego. A quick burst from him off the bench in tandem with a hot shooting night from Korver and the Hawks would be in business.

EG: Even though he only wound up playing a grand total of 29 minutes in the first round (and just three of the four games), I’m going to double-down on Channing Frye as my pick for unexpected difference-maker. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Hawks’ athletic front line will try to get KLove and TT into foul trouble, so Frye may be called on more substantially. On the Hawks side of the ball, Thabo Sefalosha will probably be left wide open for corner three balls (since the Cavs will be paying close attention to Korver, Teague, Millsap and Bazemore from the perimeter), and he’s capable of knocking them down from time to time. He should also provide his customary pesky defense on LeBron.

5) The West has been turned upside down with injuries, but the East has been extremely competitive. What other second round series has your undivided attention?

Eli: The most intriguing matchup would have been the Clippers against the Steph-less Warriors. However, due to injury, fans will not be able to enjoy such a series. Now, I believe I will definitely watch the OKC and SAS series very indepthly. It’ll be curious to see how Gregg Popovich will try to slow down Westbrook and Durant. I’m also curious how Billy Donovan will fair against Pop, considering that Rick Carlisle managed to steal a game vs BD.

David: I’m looking forward to watching the Thunder and Spurs. The Thunder aren’t disciplined, and the Spurs will take advantage of that. It will also be interesting to see how OKC deals with the Spurs’ offense. San Antonio has done so well this year on the offensive end because they exploit the mid-range shot. Teams are trained to give it up. The Spurs trained themselves to make it. There’s also the battle of Kawhi and Durant. Kawhi will slow Durant down, and the Thunder’s go to play is often “give the ball to Durant and let him score.”

Cory: The Thunder and Spurs for sure, because the winner of that series will be who the Cavs meet in The Finals. I day-dreamed for months that the Warriors would chase, and surpass the Bulls record, and burn themselves out in the process. I even entertained writing a Case For article about the Dubs being the 2007 Patriots of the NBA, just to make it come to fruition, because I mysteriously seem to control the fate of the NBA occasionally by starting an article about something months in advance. The Warriors got another gift from the basketball gods having Chris Paul and Blake Griffin go down on the same day it was announced that Steph Curry would miss two weeks with his MCL strain. Their time is coming though, in the near future.

Ben: Any game with Russell Westbrook is fun. The Spurs are the most consistently beautiful team of the century. Add in the hilariously mismatched coaching competition, and that series has the potential to be incredibly entertaining on every level. And yes, Kawhi Leonard will be the best player in that series. In the East, I will try not to jinx either squad, but assuming the Hornets and Raptors finish off their first round opponents, I will be fascinated by that match-up. I might have to pick the Hornets again in Round Two, even though I am a firm believer in Lowry and Biyombo. How great would it be if Biyombo owned his former team? Which backup guard does the most damage between Lin and Joseph? Does each team go big, small or what? That series would be a real coaching challenge. I’d have to go with Clifford over Casey. I really hope the NBA lets this happen. (Yes, I’m looking at you, officials. I’m terrified you will start bailing Wade out 10 times a game. This isn’t Stern’s NBA, but yeah.)

EG: Since it’ll likely make me sick to my stomach to watch the “wounded” Warriors continue their good luck tour through another cakewalk, and given that the discipline of Pop and the Spurs should greatly outweigh the talent show of the Thunder… I’m probably most curious about who will emerge from the rugby scrum of the other half of the East. Though I’m sort of rooting for a Hornets/Pacers match-up, there’s a greater probability of a (we tha) North vs. South (beach) showdown. I wouldn’t be the least surprised to see any of the four iterations of this series go seven games, though… given how the first round has played out.