Outlier or New Normal?

The NBA season is underway.  Anthony Davis (remember him?) has already put up an all-time gaudy statline.  The content machines are churning and the Knicks are already being declared unfit for the playoffs.  But before we all jump to conclusions and trade away our dumpster fire fantasy teams, I offer a couple factoids off the top of my head.

1. Rookie Brandon Jennings dropped 55 points in the 7th game of his NBA career.  In the 454 games since, he’s never cracked 40.
2. Rookie Dion Waiters drained 7 threes (in 11 tries) in the 4th game of his NBA career (in only 30 minutes!).  In the 286 games since, he’s never had even 6 and just one game of 5.
3. The 2009 Cavs started 1-2, punted on the last game of the season, and went 65-13 in between.

Of course, outliers aren’t limited to the beginning of the season.  Recall:

This happened. [http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201103290CLE.html]

And of course, the record for teams overcoming a 3-1 Finals deficit is 1-33 but one for the last one!

24-karat 3-1 trolling right there… (via Richard Jefferson's snapchat) pic.twitter.com/OUyKdeWaDV

— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) October 26, 2016

So here are my picks for Top 3 early season Outliers and Top 3 Signs of the New Normal

Outliers (probably)

1.) The Warriors lost by 29 at Home

A couple of things about this.  No one remember this now, but the Spurs won a franchise record 67 games last season despite completely changing their offensive system to incorporate LaMarcus Aldridge.  They also finished the season with essentially the same SRS as the widely celebrated Warriors.  So, no matter how well the Warriors played, it was doubtful the Spurs were going to roll over, even at Oracle.  The margin of victory was certainly eyebrow raising, but all the think pieces about how Andrew Bogut was so important after all are simply wishful thinking.  The Warriors are going to completely destroy the NBA this regular season.  In fact, if over under on number of regular season wins dropped substantially after that game 1 meltdown, now is the perfect time to take the over.

RT @BleacherReport live look at Kevin Durant during halftime pic.twitter.com/6yG40vcDnd

— Pardon My Take (@PardonMyTake) October 26, 2016

2.) Jonathon Simmons attempted 14 field goals

For as much as I watched/followed the Spurs last season, I do not remember a Jonathon Simmons.  Immediately after watching the highlights of his chase down block of Steph Curry, I shook my head and laughed at the Spurs Factory – once again finding a diamond in the rough in the lottery.  Except, Simmons wasn’t drafted and he played a considerable amount on the Spurs last season.  I read an article about Simmons’ journey and assumed it had just been written that morning, and not the season prior:

A tryout in Austin might have been Simmons’ last shot at pro basketball. With daughters to support at home, the barber’s chair was the viable option. Simmons was closer to holding clippers than facing the Clippers.

So what should we make of Simmons’ explosion against the Warriors?  Well, while he’s a fairly efficient scorer, he’s really a finisher more than a jump shooter.  He’s picked his spots over the last season and averaged 4.4 field goals per game – mostly layups and dunks.  He shot just 36% on jump shots.  Simmons’ calling card is his defense and athleticism, so don’t expect many nights like Tuesday, where he shot 14 times en route to 20 points.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5M-yZbLcZ4

Simmons attempted 14 field goals just once last season and while it’s reasonable to expect an uptick as he continues to impress (more minutes, more freedom, improved outside shot = more shots) the 14 field goals was most likely a strong outlier.  Simmons is a 6’6″ wing on a team with Manu Ginobili (a 6’6″ wing), Patty Mills (a scoring guard), Tony Parker (a scoring guard), Kyle “Slow Mo” Anderson (the starting small forward), and my MVP prediction, Kawhi Leonard (a 6’7″ wing).  It’s crowded on the perimeter in San Antonio and unless Simmons supplants Anderson in the starting lineup, it’s safe to assume he’s going to settle into more of an Iman Shumpert role than a J.R. Smith role off the bench.

3.) Dwyane Wade splashed 4 of 6 Triples

The last time Wade made four 3s in a game was almost four years ago.  It’s very possible that Wade is going to both attempt significantly more 3s per game this season (out of necessity given the dearth of outside shooting on the Bulls) and shoot a much higher percentage.  And what I mean by that is, it’s very possible for him to attempt significantly more than zero points six 3s a game and convert at better than a sixteen percentage clip.  Wade’s career averages are 1.6 3s per contest at 29%.  This four of six business isn’t going to rear it’s head very often.  I’ll guess he’ll finish the season shooting 33%ish.  The rate of 3 point attempts is much harder to predict – some guys never shoot 3s until they decide to start.  If Wade goes into this season thinking “I need to jack up a couple of these a game to keep the defenses honest” – that’s exactly what he’s going to do.  Maybe Gatorade can re-release this old commercial with the Good and Bad DWade contemplating PU3ITs vs back down 15′ fadeaways.

The New Normal (probably)

1.) The Pacers scored 130 points in the opener (OT)

I’ve gone back and forth on this one.  Arguments against a “high octane” Pacers squad: In the 5 years Frank Vogel coached them, they never once broke 130.  Not once in five years.  Nate McMillan‘s Blazer broke 130 twice in his 7 year stint as head coach (once was double OT).  So it’s not really part of the “hard hat, lunch pail” culture in Indianapolis to run and gun and there’s no indication their current head coach preaches the gospel of buckets.  That said….

I think the Pacers are going to be high octane whether Nate McMillan wants to or not.  They’ve added two pieces in the offseason that make them a much more dynamic offensive team: Jeff Teague and (here’s the one no one talks about) Al Jefferson.  Those are significant offensive improvements at both positions.

And I sense that Myles Turner‘s explosion in the opener wasn’t a fluke either.  Turner flashed some potential last season and has a rare combination of traits.  His motor, defensive rebounding, and shot blocking instincts suggest a Tyson Chandler-like dive man on offense but he has a feathery touch from mid-range and can finish around the hoop with either hand.  The ceiling for him might be Kevin Garnett-light but Kevin Garnett-light on a team with Paul George, Jeff Teague, Al Jefferson, Monta Ellis, Thad Young (YEAH NATE!), and a decent bench?  Buckets.  Buckets everywhere.

You know I felt irresponsible for that KG comp as soon as I typed it.  So I went to bball-ref and…well..

Rookie KG: 28 Min, 10 points, 6 boards, 1.1 steals, 1.6 blocks, 50% FG%, 70% FT%, 19 Years Old
Rookie MT: 22 Min, 10 points, 6 boards, 0.4 Steals, 1.4 blocks, 50% FG%, 72% FT%, 19 Years Old

And in game one he had 30, 16, 2, 4 on 13-19 shooting.  I’m comfortable with “KG-light” for now.  And the Pacers are gonna score a lot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZW3SSaMwOg

2.) The Bulls Won

Vegas put the Bulls regular season wins Over/Under at 38.5, the exact same number they gave to the Knicks.  I was able to watch almost the entire Bulls game against the dark horse conference champion Celtics, they of the greatest head coach with zero post season success of all time.  I feel like there is a chasm between the Knicks and the Bulls.  As a quick aside, my thoughts on the Knicks: I absolutely loathe their roster makeup and Derrick Rose is a terrible fit on a team with Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis.  We saw this experiment a long time ago, it was called Melo and Iverson in Denver.  It never panned out.  At least back then, Melo was pretty dynamic.  Now he’s a jab-step scoring threat a couple of notches better than Joe Johnson.  Rose might be worse than Iverson was even in his twilight years.  These guys are going to play your turn / my turn all season long while Porzingas flares to the corners with sagging shoulders.  At least they have no-stats-all-star-3-and-D-wonder-glue-guy Brandon Jennings to keep the ball moving from side to side…

But the Bulls.  I…kinda like it.  Will good teams clog the lane?  Absolutely.  But clogging the lane against Dwyane Wade doesn’t nullify his effectiveness.  Just like Jon Lester’s inability to throw a ball that’s not a pitch doesn’t keep him from being one of the great post season pitchers in the game, Wade’s inability/disinterest to make outside shots hasn’t nerfed him.  Only age and injuries have been able to slow him down.  If he’s healthy, he’s gonna score and score efficiently (he always has).  He’s great at moving without the ball ever since he learned how to do it during the Heatles era.

Here’s where I lose you: I think Rajon Rondo is going to win the Boris Diaw award for sneaky useful rotation player on a playoff team after years of disappointment.  This is a total guess but don’t forget how good Rondo once was.  before there was Ricky Rubio there was Rajon Rondo.  Lately, Rondo’s had a bad attitude, he’s been a sub-par facilitator, has been hated by his coach/teammates, and plays inexcusably awful defense.  But he’s just got a special court vision and I refuse to believe the guy that carved up the Lakers in the Finals is completely gone.  I see a bounce back year of sorts for him as a lot of the guys on that team work to figure out their roles.  What could sabotage the Bulls is injuries, as they only go 8 deep with Doug McDermott, Michael Carter-Williams, and Robin Lopez backing up their talented starting 5.

For some reason I smell 45-50 wins for the Bulls after watching them defeat the Celtics last night.  I think the offseason additions were an upgrade if only because I think good-world Rondo is a better fit alongside Jimmy Butler than the departed Derrick Rose.  And I think Wade still has something in the tank.  It’s kinda crazy how quickly Rose and Rondo flamed out – it wasn’t that long ago they were the future PGs of the league.

3.) LeBron Dished 14 Dimes in the Opener

I was a bit surprised to learn that LeBron has never had more than 16 assists in a game (once) and has only had 15 in a game three times.  His 14 in the home opener, while not stunningly rare, has only happened 10 times in his storied 1187-game career.  So LeBron notching 14 dimes in a game (regular or post season) has happened at a rate of just over 1%.  But I think we’re going to see it a handful of times this season for a couple of reasons.

1.  He’s got so many spot up 3-point snipers.  LeBron has always loved driving, drawing the defense’s attention, and then kicking out to open 3-point shooters.  He’s probably the best cross court passer in NBA history.  He’s surrounded by a plethora of high percentage 3-point shooters this year: Kyrie Irving, Channing Frye, Kevin Love, Mike Dunleavy Jr., and J.R. Smith.
2. He wants the ball in his hands at the top of the key but doesn’t really want to take outside shots.  If LeBron wedded his appreciation for efficiency with analytics and scouting, he’d have demanded the Cavs match the Bucks offer for Delly, they would have practiced 3 or 4 more permutations of the horns rub play that they ran with the bench mob that eviscerated Toronto in the postseason, and he’d have spent the vast majority of his time on offense catching the ball on the move between the elbows and the low post.  Alas, they all but abandoned that strategy in the NBA Finals, LeBron went back to the LeIso that garnered him so much flak for so many years, and…well…he completely sonned the jackals with face-up domination, and stuck a bazillion outside shots in games 5 and 6.  [Shrug emoji]  Now the Cavs lack a pure point guard and have more questions than answers at back up point guard.  I think LeBron wants it this way.  Cus LeBron is the answer.  He’s always relished the point-forward role.  And he’s better suited to it now than he was in 2007.  He may be a worse outside shooter but he’s greatly improved in that 3-10′ range and is more comfortable backing down opponents than at any other time in his career.
3. The Cavs don’t need LeBron to score 30 a night.  Either this year or next year, Kyrie Irving could very well lead the Cavs in scoring.  Kevin Love can easily chip in 50% more points than he has the last two seasons just by converting a higher percentage of the looks he’s been getting during the “Fit Out” era, much less getting better looks (which might happen too).  Presumably he’s going to be more comfortable in the Cavalier offense this season and beyond.  Channing Frye is out there to shoot.  J.R. Smith is out there to shoot.  Mike Dunleavy Jr. can drop in double digits.  The Cavs have more than enough players to put the ball in the hoop.  Some of them require more set-up from the high usage guys (Jefferson, Shumpert, TT) but the Cavs can score 120 in their sleep with this roster.  We all know LeBron relishes getting guys involved.  I expect inflated assists in general, inflated rebounds in big games, and a career low in field goal attempts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgS-3lDlT0k