5 on 5: Second Round 2017 Edition
2017-05-01
Are you happy seeing the Raptors in the second round, or would you have preferred the Bucks?
Tom: I would have preferred the Bucks. The Raptors are a better team and have playoff experience. They are deeper and although Giannis is a load and the Bucks have a lot of interesting pieces and annoying length on defense, the Raptors really did a nice job adding Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker for defense. They will be a tough out as long as they get enough offense from Lowry and DeRozen.
Cory: The Raptors are the more experienced and complete team, but I was rooting hard for the Bucks to win the series. I loved their rebuild. I loved the “Fear the Dear” promotional tees against the Raptors. I was absolutely giddy at the thought of an athletic Godzilla/Mothra basket battle between LeBron and Giannis. I wanted to see Delly again, but for Kyrie’s knees sake, I’m kind of glad we don’t have to see Delly again.
David: They match up with the Raptors really well. No one on Toronto can stop LeBron and they don’t have a guy LeBron can’t shutdown if he needs to. The Bucks would have been scary because The Greek Freak could slow down LeBron, and if he takes the next step, he could be a one man offense. There is no next level for the Raptors to really reach, and I’m confident the Cavs can beat them as long as injury issues don’t arise.
Samuel: I’m kind of glad to see the Raptors for a few reasons. First off, I think we’re still a year away from Giannis taking the leap and becoming a top 3-5 player in the league. I don’t want to test that theory. Also, the Bucks have enough length and versatility on defense that if the Cavs aren’t hitting their open threes, the Bucks could turn the long misses into transition buckets and make it a tough series. Purely from a visual standpoint, Cavs versus Raptors will be a lot more fun to watch. Lastly, the Cavs would be much more likely to overlook the Bucks, and sleepwalk their way to a loss or two. The Cavs aren’t going to overlook the Raptors, and we’ll see the playoff edition of the Cavs that we saw last season.
Nate: I’m really really torn. I don’t think I would’ve liked the Bucks after they realized what they were capable of in the first round, but their Game 6 lull and inability to closeout the Raps or manage their bench doomed them. I like the Raps matchup. Playing the Bucks would’ve just been too damned heartbreaking. I might have been openly rooting for them, what with my favorite team versus my favorite player vibe. The Raps are an odd matchup, and the Cavs have played them well. The Cavs should be able to overwhelm them offensively as they have all season, especially since Kyle Lowry still needs more time to get back to full strength
Will the Raptors midseason additions of Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker be able to put the Cavs in an adverse situation?
Tom: Ibaka is talented and has a lot of playoff experience. His weak-side rim protection may adversely affect the Cavs a bit. Tucker gives the Raptors someone other than DeMarre Carroll to guard LeBron. Carroll has length, but he lacks the strength to really handle LBJ. Tucker is stronger. Also, the Raps are much deeper than they were a year ago.
Cory: Yes, but with the caveat that Lowry doesn’t breakdown during the series, and that he and DeRozan come to play each game. Ibaka is terrific complementary piece when he’s surrounded by stars. If the stars aren’t playing up to their pay grade, he’s Orlando Ibaka. Tucker’s reputation as a LeBron stopper isn’t really accurate considering LeBron has averaged 26 per game on 56% shooting in his 11 career games against Tucker, including a 36 point explosion on March 3rd of this season.
David: No. Serge is a rim protector who is most likely going to cover Kevin Love. Love will drag him away from the rim, which will essentially neutralize what he does best. And, Tucker is a alright NBA player. It is laughable to think that he can actually stop James. The Raptors didn’t need slightly better defense at the deadline. They needed to add another creator who can set guys up. Their offense isn’t good enough to keep up with how much the Cavs will score on a nightly basis.
Samuel: Give the Raptors their props. These were good additions. Ibaka isn’t the player he was two to three years ago, but he still does a decent job protecting the rim and hitting open jumpers. I don’t think of him as a great shooter, but his postseason splits are .507 from the field and .400 from three (albeit on 1.8 attempts). The threat of that alone is enough to give them additional spread on offense. The lineup of Lowry, DeRozan, Tucker, Patterson and Ibaka is a pretty scary prospect on both ends of the floor. I’d be surprised to see Valanciunas play more than 15 minutes per game.
Nate: Ibaka doesn’t worry me as long as the Cavs keep him off the boards. In fact, Ibaka’s block hunting tendencies should help Cleveland. When he cheats in for blocks, Cleveland should be able to work the spread floor for open threes. P.J. Tucker had some nice moments shutting down the Bucks’ rallies, but he was lost on offense. He’ll be a nice bench piece. Maybe they sic him on Deron Williams on the second unit. Deron’s slow enough that it could work. That’s probably why Lue won’t let a minute go by without Kyrie or LeBron on the floor.
Who will be the unexpected difference maker for each team in this series?
Tom: I have no idea who on the Cavs will make an unexpected contribution. I think Kyle Korver will provide more than he did against the Pacers. For the Raptors, I’ll guess that Cory Joseph will torch the Cavs suspect defense at times.
Cory: If the Raptors start a smaller lineup with Ibaka at center, I could see onetime draft fascination Jonas Valanciunas controlling the paint while Tristan rests. For the Cavs, I’m going to go with J.R. Smith. He took pride in harassing DeRozen in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, and I foresee that happening again, and him matching the 12 points per game he put up in that matchup.
David: The Raptors need DeRozan to start canning his mid-range jumpers. He shot just 29.3% from there against the Bucks, down from the 41.2% he averaged from that distance during the regular season. The Cavs are going to give him that shot consistently just because they’re not going to game plan to eliminate long twos.
J.R. Smith could make a big difference in these games. If he just plays a little bit better, he could really wear the Raptors’ backcourt out. Smith struggled mentally in the last series with crazy passes, etc…He’s hitting one fewer three per game than he did in last year’s playoffs. The Cavs need good J.R. to return in the next week or two.
Samuel: For the Raptors, Cory Joseph and Norman Powell off the bench are going to have to give them good minutes or they don’t stand a chance. For the Cavs, Channing Frye is going to have to play big. He has actually done a better job in the latter part of the season with rebounding and just being tough in the post. If he can play Patterson/Ibaka to a draw, this series gets a whole lot easier for the Cavs. Look for Swish to have an awesome series too after finally getting some rest for his hammy.
Nate: Norman Powell is scorching hot right now: 10-11 in the first round. Corey Joseph had a big basket late in game six for Toronto, so maybe his confidence will be up. Someone’s going to have to step up off the bench for Toronto, cause the starters are shooting like garbage. For Cleveland, I’m thinking Richard Jefferson who has had, at times, good luck against DeRozan. I’m not sure Iman can channel psycho Shump two times in two series. Also, expect the week off to do wonders for Korver who was pretty quiet in the first round.
What other second round series are you looking forward to most?
Tom: Celtics/Wiz. Lots of angsty players that haven’t gotten past this round and some bouts of bad blood in the regular season. I enjoyed Isaiah Thomas getting his tooth knocked out and then hitting back to back threes to start the incredible rally in their game one matchup. The Wiz are a bit like the Cavs in that they can have some breathtaking offense at times, but spotty D, and quite the drop-off when the stars hit the pine.
Cory: Rockets versus Spurs for sure! I questioned during the Grizzlies series whether the Spurs are a legitimate title contender, or just a really good regular season team that gets exposed once rotations are shortened. Superior talent matters more in the playoffs, and we’ll find out this series. This is also the Mike D’Antoni comeback season after years in lottery land with the Lakers and Knicks, and nothing would bring him more joy,(other than a lifetime supply of Crest 3D White Whitening Strips) than taking out the team who robbed him of his best chance at a championship because of the controversial suspensions to Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw after Robert Horry’s flagrant foul on Steve Nash a decade ago.
David: The Rockets/Spurs series is going to be fun just because of how different the two teams play. The Spurs take 26.6% of their shots from the mid-range, while the Rockets take just 8.8% of their shots from there. Kawhi is a defense first tough shot maker, and Harden is an offense first uber efficient shot taker and creator. The Spurs work at a slower pace, while the Rockets are trying to push it constantly. There’s something for every type of fan to love in that series.
Samuel: Spurs/Rockets is gonna be awesome. Harden versus Leonard is a much more exciting matchup than Harden/Westbrook. Harden is a pick and roll genius, and Kawhi is nearly flawless as a perimeter defender. I’m already giddy for it. Assuming they play one another to a draw, it will come down to the supporting casts, with a slight advantage to the Rockets. The coaching duel between Pop and D’Antoni should be worth a DVR spot alone.
Nate: Jazz/Dubs. Utah can take them to six, but when the Dubs run a five out offense, Gobert is probably a liability. This series comes down to whether Utah can slow pace and produce enough offense to counter the Dubs. Can George Hill play Curry close to even for enough games to make it competitive? Oh, and how “back” is Kevin Durant? That’s the big question. I’ll admit it. Utah is my favorite Western Conference team. From Rudy Gobert to Joe Ingles to Boris Diaw, this team is full of Nate favorites. I hope they shock Golden State and the world.
Give a prediction for every Second Round series.
Tom:
Spurs over Rockets in 7
Warriors over Jazz in 4
Wizards over Celtics in 6
Cavs over Raptors in 7
Cory:
Rockets over Spurs in 6
Warriors over Jazz in 5
Wizards over Celtics in 7
Cavs over Raptors in 6
David:
Spurs over Rockets in 7
Warriors over Jazz in 6
Wizards over Celtics in 6
Cavs over Raptors in 5
Samuel:
Spurs over Rockets in 7
Warriors over Jazz in 5
Wizards over Celtics in 6
Cavs over Raptors in 5
Nate:
Rockets over Spurs in 6
Warriors over Jazz in 6
Wizards over Celtics in 6
Cavs over Raptors in 5
Spurs over Rockets in 6
Warriors over Jazz in 5
Wizards over Celtics in 7
Cavs over Raptors in 5
OK I HAVE MY CASE OF ” BREW KETTLE’S ” ALL FOR ONE –IPA ” ( ACTUALLY THERE ARE LESS–CONSUMED A FEW ALREADY ) —–ARE WE ” ALL IN —-HELL YES LET’S DO IT AGAIN ….DEFEND THE LAND “
My predictions:
Rockets over Spurs in 7
Warriors over Jazz in 5
Wizards over Celtics in 7
Cavs over Raptors in 5
If Cavs fight through screens, no one will beat them. No one.
If they don’t fight through screens, anyone can beat them. Anyone.
I absolutely hate these two…
I think if the Cavs win the first two at home the series is a wrap. I’ll start worrying if we lose one of these first two. Toronto is a tough town to play in.
I’m actually expecting the Raps to win tonight. The week off for the Cavs probably got them “too comfortable” and the Cavs had a really good last game against the Bucks. I think they come in with that intensity and take the Cavs by surprise.
The Raptors have had just about the optimal amount of time off between series — enough to rest and recover and game plan, but not enough to get rusty.
FWIW, I think I predicted Clippers 4 or something and I predicted Cavs would need 6 games to beat the Pacers. Feel free to ignore my predictions.
To be fair, the Clippers would’ve won had Blake not been injured again. But you don’t get any excuses for thinking the Pacers could take two from the Champs
The good news is, if skepticism in predictions was a Madden rating I’d have a 99. How about this, Cols.
Click on that to get the normal resolution
What good references. Nailed it, Tom.
This is great.
Cols, here’s the problem with predictions. You have to choose 1 outcome from 8 possible outcomes. I find Cavs in 7 to be the most likely outcome. Here’s my prediction distribution.
I see no way the Raps sweep, but I could totally see the Cavs just blowing them out of the water. I basically give the Cavs a better than 20% chance of winning in 4 or 5. I can’t see the Raps winning a Game 7 in Cleveland. So this is kind of how I’m feeling right now.
Ha. I like the graph.
Cols distribution
Cavs in 4, 40% chance
Cavs in 5, 50% chance
Cavs in 6, 10% chance
I’m a little shocked at Tom’s Cavs in 7 as well. If you’re right you’re right I guess, but the raps are still missing the real Kyle Lowry. I’m assuming you’re seeing the series extend because Kyrie is a lock to revive Lowry’s offense and Norman Powell will wreak havoc against deron williams and/or shump? Cuz without a scoring Lowry the raps can’t take more than one game.
Cols, what is your disappointment threshold? I get the sense that if the Cavs win in 7 you won’t be disappointed, just talk about how they were never scared and it doesn’t really matter and the Raps never threatened. But you seem annoyed with anyone that thinks the series could be close.
I’m never disappointed by winning. Like last year’s series went 6, but did anyone outside of Nate actually think the Raptors had a chance? Nope. So winning.
I’m just surprised that you looked at how Toronto struggled against a going nowhere Bucks team and think they can beat a team with LBJ in his (mostly) prime.
Right last year went 6. So winning 7 isn’t really that much different. I think the Raptors are better than last year and I think the Cavs are worse. As I’ve said time and time again – nothing would surprise me. Honestly, I would not have been surprised if the Cavs got knocked out of the first round against the Pacers the way they played the second half of the season. The sweep didn’t surprise me either. I can’t get a read on them. In 2014 when the Spurs whooped on the Heat LeBron didn’t play poorly. His team couldn’t… Read more »
“Honestly, I would not have been surprised if the Cavs got knocked out of the first round against the Pacers”
Tom, how can you think this when you look at the Cavs and their roster is basically the same as last year but a better backup PG, Kyle Korver, and maybe a worse 3rd center and think that they would lose??
What if I had said, the Cavs will suffer no injuries to LeBron or Kyrie and will not win even 52 games? You would have said “How can you think that when we have the same team yada yada.”
Haha. Yep, no doubt. And I would’ve been wrong. As is I’m surprised that they mailed in the 2nd half of the season as much as they did. But I also know better than to think a fully engaged Cavs team loses in the ECP.
You realize in a span of 2 weeks the Cavs blew a 26 point fourth quarter league (one of 3 such losses in NBA history) and came back from a 26 point playoff deficit (and a 25 point halftime deficit – the largest comeback in NBA history). You can throw everything out the window and distill everything down to “the lessons of LeBron” but any team capable of such wild swings is a hard team to pin down. And don’t tell me they didn’t care about that Atlanta game, after they were furious losing to Atlanta’s bench the game prior… Read more »
Yep. Look, they went to the Finals with JR Smith being their 2nd best player once Irving and Love were out. I just don’t see how this team can be stopped before the Finals.
JR was their second-best player? I don’t know how to research this, but I’m pretty sure that a certain player you’re convinced sucks had more podium games than JR in that year’s playoffs.
JR 2015 playoffs – 40% overall, 36% from three in 35 mpg, 110 ORtg, 104 Drtg
Delly 2015 playoffs – 34% overall, 31% from three in 24 mpg, 95 ORtg, 108 Drtg
JR significantly outplayed Delly in the 2015 playoffs, both shooting and in their O and D ratings.
Of course Delly’s stats are skewed by the final 3 games when he shouldn’t have been playing because he needed recovery time after he nearly played himself to death in game 3.
Going to the hospital for being out of shape in no excuse for sucking.
Again, dehydration does not equal being out of shape.
Who stole Cols’ meds?
Everyone not named Cols knows Delly outplayed JR in that series.
You are great at ascribing false opinions to me. Yet who remained steadfast when the Cavs were down 3-1? His name rhymes with “great.”
Yep. Good work by you that series.
Going nowhere? I bet they finish ahead of the Raps next year.
How about this? It could be a more competitive series than last year’s ECF, but the Cavs will in less than 6 games. The Raptors got better. Just getting rid of Biyombo made them better, but they replaced him with Ibaka which is a huge upgrade.
Their problem is that they don’t have LeBron and we do. Cavs in 5. But the games will be closer than last year’s blowouts.
I have to confirm, but if I remember correctly, Biyombo pulled down 26 rebs in one game in that series.
No doubt Cols was astounded it took the Cavs 7 to beat the Frauds last year!
Yeah. The espn cuts were brutal and stupid Sherwood Strauss was the most bizarre. I fully expect the next TV contract for the NBA to be lower.
Yeah. That sucks. Although the NBA keeps getting more popular. I fully expect you to be wrong about the next teevee contract.
The NBA needs to look at diversifying their Nationally Televised games. ESPN is no longer the only place to get sports. I mean, hell, the NFL is going to be streaming Thursday night games on Amazon.
Something supremely ironic: cord cutting is going to make non-cable broadcast channels extremely desirable again.
I just read an article about the revival of Network TV Sports due to this phenomenon. It’s real, and there are real fears at cable companies about it. They’re scrambling to find ways to monetize streaming packages and develop “sling box” type alternatives.
Where was the article?
I’m sad that even Tom has forgotten the lessons of LeBron. Cavs in 7?????
Come on Tom.
I think people are sleeping on the Raptors. And the Cavs didn’t blow me away in their sweep of the Pacers, who were in my opinion the worst team in the playoffs.
I just don’t see the Raps winning 3 games against a focused LeBron.
Can’t wait for tipoff!!!
On an off topic point and as CtB tweeted, it’s hard to fathom that ESPN let Marc Stein go. Their loss. Who is next Windy and Dave M? Yet Screaming A stills blows his hot air for around $3.5 million
Screamin’ A gets ratings… sad day for basketball journalism…
You think THAT’S sad, consider that Jeff Zucker said he modeled CNN’s coverage of last year’s presidential campaign on ESPN and its shouting heads.
Just threw up a little in my mouth…
Yeah, that’s the worst thing ever. Jeff Zucker sucks
Stein was let go? Wow. He is among the classiest and most intelligent sports writers. Where else can someone follow the NBA? Asking honestly.
Chad Ford too. And Ford had no equal at ESPN when it came to draft coverage. Woj is going to ESPN and he replaces with Stein did. But I like Stein, Woj is a big jerk.
Wonder of Woj is a threat to what Windy does on NBA coverage? I imagine Windy may be at least a bit nervous, although Brian has great sources……but so did Marc Stein.
I think Windy is not going anywhere. Dude is on TV every day.
IMO the Raptors still rely too much on Free Throws to be a true threat.
Celts in 6
Warriors in 4
Spurs in 6
Cavs in 6
Toronto is still short one player who can create his own shot from being a threat against a healthy LeBron and Ky.
The additions made them better but not there yet.
Wiz in 7
Warriors in 6
Cavs in 7
Rockets in 5
7?? No way this series goes 7.
I think it will be more difficult than we realise, as was the first round also. The differentials were far more those of a six game series rather than a sweep. We will eventually beat most probably, but just because it is not Lebron’s time yet.
We swept the Pacers. It doesn’t get much easier than that. Last year our average margin of victory of the Raptors was like 20 points. It doesn’t get much easier than that either. And this Cavs team is better than last year’s team because we have a backup PG who doesn’t suck and Kyle Korver.
This years team is worse until proven otherwise, you know since we were the champs last year. Toronto has gone from starting Scola to starting Ibaka. That’s a better team.
Right. But the problem is that although the Cavs improved by getting better backups at the PG and SG positions, the fraudstars improved by getting a genuine superstar. So even though the Cavs are better, they may not be able to beat that cocky arrogant unlikeable team out west.
They will have no problems getting to the Finals though.
Only they didnt get “better” backups, per se. They got “shinier” and more experienced backups. They also got significantly older backups.
I don’t see how you can argue that. Deron is clearly better than Delly. And Kyle Korver is taking over the bench SG role. Those are two clear upgrades. The only downgrade is our 3rd center sucks even worse than Mozgov.
The Cavs could easily have lost 3 of the 4 games against the Pacers.
They swept the Pacers. You cannot ask for an easier first round than one that ends in a sweep.
You’re just funnin’, right? Four blowouts by definition are easier than one easy win and three games that go down to the final couple minutes.
Warriors 4.
Spurs 7.
Celtics 7.
Raptors 6.
Hope I’m off on that last one.
I guess you didn’t learn the lessons of LeBron James the last 6 years. He doesn’t lose in the ECP.
I expect them to make the Finals again this year, but every trend continues until it doesn’t.
Are you for real?
Cavs second unit will romp the Raptors. First units should run pretty equal.
I don’t know why, but I kind of feel that the Cavs are going to run over the Raptors. Maybe not, but I just keep getting the feeling.
Rockets in 6
Frauds in 4
Wizards in 7
Cavs in 5
And Nate would’ve rooted for the Bucks. Unbelievable.
Spurs in 6
Frauds in 4
Celtics in 7
Cavs in 5
Two weeks of trolling you would’ve been glorious.
Spurs in 5
Dubs in 5
Celtics in 7
Cavs in 6
Trolling – Cols in all series
Speaking of trolling. Delly’s playoff stats: 35% shooting, not from three, overall. And 26% from three. Horrible.
That’s not good, but it’s not like he’s Kyle Korver and teams get him mainly for his shooting.
In fact, he shot even worse against Toronto last year, when — need I remind you? — the Cavs scored on 14 possessions in a row with Delly orchestrating Horns Rub.
Talk about a throwback player: One of Delly’s top career similarity scores on BasketballReference.com is Butch Van Breda Kolff, who played from 1946 to1950 (and later coached Bill Bradley at Princeton and Wilt briefly with the Lakers).
wow. That’s a name
Yet he played far more than brogdan in game six.
Could be why the lost.