The Point Four-ward: It’s a Different Game

Four things I’m thinking about the Playoffs…

1. The Boston Celtics’ Game 6 victory over the Washington Wizards produced no new developments to warrant any Cavaliers worry. With the Wizards selling out defensively in an attempt to stop mini-star, Isaiah Thomas, the floor was open for other players to contribute. Thankfully for Boston fans, Al Horford and Avery Bradley stepped up their shooting games to deliver an early knockout punch to the previously rolling Wiz. Scott Brooks was determined to stop Thomas, leaving the rest of the Celtics hilariously wide open. Still, none of it was particularly earth shattering, despite what the reports may lead you to believe. It is incredibly common for point guards to set on-ball screens in the modern NBA.

If anything, it is indicative of the poor level of play that Brad Stevens didn’t employ this tactic with greater regularity earlier in the series. To be fair, Scott Brooks didn’t go all-in until Game 6. Whatever. This is a checkers series tossed into a chess tournament. Maybe Tristan Thompson wasn’t inadvertently using poor grammar in this recent quote.

“I think we’re not even looking at the Warriors,” Tristan Thompson said. “We’re looking at Boston-Washington. Before that it was Toronto. The most important team we got to take care of and play against is the team in front of us. We can’t look past no other team. Everyone is capable of beating anyone on any night, especially right now. These are all good teams. We’ve lost to Boston and Washington this year, so these teams are not a cakewalk. Everybody is respected, everybody knows every team is talented. So we’re just looking at it one step at a time. Not looking past nobody.”

Double TT was giving us the truth with his use of the double negative. I’m pleased that the Cavs’ focus and attention to game-plan didn’t wane too much during the first two rounds of the playoffs. They routinely made the correct rotation and competed hard on the mental side of the game. It requires substantial mental fortitude to consistently execute a defensive game-plan. The Cavs’ were up to the challenge when necessary in Round 1, and from the tip in Round 2. Nevertheless, you better believe they are looking past the Eastern Conference to the inevitable match-up against the Warriors.

2. I’d love to say the West is still wide open considering that the greatest coach in NBA history, Gregg Popovich, has a 3-2 series lead over a strong Houston Rockets team. Popovich was at his fiery best during the Spurs’ enthralling Game 5 victory. With Tony Parker out and Kawhi Leonard hobbled, the Spurs closed out the victory by leaning heavily on one-time Cavalier Danny Green, Aussie Patty Mills, and a mini throwback performance from Manu Ginobili. Manu is truly great. During his prime, I would rank him higher than Kobe Bryant on the “best shooting guards of all-time” list. His brilliance and efficiency on both ends of the floor were historically supreme. He has been clutch, consistent, irrationally confident, rationally confident, a wild card, and Mr. Reliable throughout his Hall of Fame career. It was poetic that he sealed the overtime win by blocking a three from his stylistic heir apparent. Ginoboli will turn 40 this July. He is a wonder.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhhikqTuzaU

ManuWonder or not, the Spurs are up the creek if the rightful regular season MVP,  Kawhi Leonard isn’t 100% for the rest of the series. Coach Pop and some unlikely production from guys like Jonathan Simmons and David Lee might be able to steal a quarter of a playoff game, but it would be a tall task to ask those guys to lead the team for the final two games of the series. James Harden will have a bounce back game at home after playing an appallingly bad overtime in the Rockets’ loss. Down the stretch, Harden went exclusively to the the missed three-pointer or the turnover. A comatose rabbit would insist that those are not the best two options for an effective superstar. Basically, the Beard self-destructed when it mattered most. The Rockets will likely take Game 6 whether Leonard plays or not, but you know they are beating themselves up over what could have been.

3. That brings us back to the Warriors. They will either play a Spurs team without Tony Parker and featuring an unhealthy Leonard, or they will face a Mike D’Antoni team lacking both enough attention to defensive detail and depth throughout the lineup. Either way, Steve Kerr’s(or should I say, old time friend, Mike Brown’s) Golden State squad will be heavy favorites. A totally healthy Spurs team would struggle to take the Warriors to six or seven games let alone one without Parker and a 100% Leonard.

I fail to see how Houston would get more than even one victory in a potential match-up. The Rockets have a ton of firepower in their backcourt, but they haven’t adequately taken advantage of their created mismatches. James Harden has turned “seven seconds or less” into “wait to shoot an off-the-dribble-three until a couple seconds remain on the clock”. It’s neither a good book title nor offensive strategy.

The Rockets are seeking out the mismatches created from ball screens, but the ultimate play execution is beginning far too late in the clock. A solid playoff defense will shut down the first actions following a switch. A good offense doesn’t allow the shot-clock to be a sixth defender. The Spurs’ defense hasn’t had to defend a full 24 seconds very frequently and it has hurt the Rockets. Even the supreme offensive patience shown by the Cavaliers in last year’s Finals produced shots earlier in the clock than what we have seen from the Rockets in crunch time. Harden’s dribbling show has been clearly more out of fatigue than in the name of basketball acumen, but the result is the same.

4. You can’t get away with that against the Warriors. Golden State has been the best defensive playoff team by far. They smother teams with their insane length and athleticism. A big/long part of that has been the play of JaVale McGee. I’m happy for the young man. The talented center has dealt with more than enough negative attention throughout his up and down career. With the Warriors, McGee is free to dive unimpeded to the rim off screen rolls and clean up the offensive glass against scattered defenses. Kevin Durant has been a monster since returning from his mini hiatus. Lineups with Durant, Green, and McGee on the frontcourt are nearly impossible to drive against.

The Cavaliers haven’t been quite as dominant as the Warriors through two rounds. The Cavs are outscoring their opponents by almost 10 points per 100 possessions, while G.S. is rocking teams by more than 17 per 100. Still, the Warriors have been doing a lot of their damage using lineups that are unlikely to be effective against the Cavaliers, whereas Cleveland has been practicing the small ball lineups necessary to beat Golden State. The Durant, Green, McGee frontcourt is playable against Cavs lineups that include Tristan Thompson. When Frye or Love man the five, the Cavs would roast McGee.

I just got finished saying that I am happy for JaVale. That doesn’t mean I trust him to properly rotate on the defensive end against sweet shooting stretch fives. He doesn’t have the basketball mind for that. Things that worked for McGee against Portland and Utah will likely work against whichever team comes out of the Rockets/Spurs series. It most certainly will not work against LeBron James and his army of shooters.