What Do We Know About The Cleveland Cavaliers?

Today, the Cleveland Cavaliers sit in a place where even the most pessimistic Cavs fan (or optimistic fan of another team) would never have put them, sitting in just barely the third seed of the Eastern Conference with only 16 games left to play. The only thing that has been consistent with this team is the chaos. Whether it was the slow start to the season, winning 18 of 19 in November and December, imploding during January, or the roster overhaul at the trade deadline, instability has been the way of the 2017-2018 Cleveland Cavaliers.

Now, with less than a month left in the regular season, we’re no closer to knowing what kind of team the Cavaliers can be than we were during training camp in October. Kevin Love has been out with a broken hand since the end of January, and hasn’t played with any of the players acquired at the trade deadline. Tristan Thompson, formerly the team’s iron man, has battled injuries all season, and is currently out with a sprained ankle. Cedi Osman is out with a left hip flexor strain, Rodney Hood has been battling lower back issues, and Larry Nance has missed time with a sore hamstring.

Whew.

Because of the the roster overhaul and multitude of injuries, this current incarnation of the Cavaliers has had literally no time together to build on-court chemistry, and the chances of them doing so before the playoffs decreases as each day passes. What kind of team will they be? No one knows for sure, but here are some educated guesses.

Pros

The biggest advantage the Cavaliers have going for them is obviously LeBron James. Over the past few years, James has taken a lot of nights off defensively during the regular season, but during the postseason he has still defended at an elite level. Even if you believe that James isn’t head and shoulders the best player in the NBA, he is still clearly the best player in the Eastern Conference, and as proven a winner and big game performer as there is in the league right now. No matter how the Cavs have looked so far, no Eastern Conference team really wants to face James in the playoffs.

The return of Kevin Love is also imminent, and shouldn’t be understated. Love gives the Cavaliers the clear second option the team so desperately needs right now, a perennial All-Star who defenses have to plan to stop. He is one of the few big men in the league who excels as both a three-point shooter and rebounder. Love is  also an excellent passer who can create offense for both himself and his teammates when he gets the ball at the elbow. While not the quickest or most athletic player, and by no means a rim protector, Love is still an underrated team defender who has been a plus for the Cavaliers on that end over his four seasons with the team.

Of course, Love isn’t the only big man the Cavs are missing. Tristan Thompson has spent the last two weeks on the shelf with a sprained ankle, and Larry Nance Jr. recently joined him with a sore hamstring. Nance has been terrific at both ends of the floor since joining the Cavaliers, and may have taken the starting center spot from Thompson. Even if he has struggled this year, Thompson is still a very good rebounder (elite on the offensive end) who can bang down low with other big men, both traits the Cavaliers have sorely lacked since Thompson was injured. None of the three big men are great rim protectors, but all three are good on the boards as rebounding is obviously an important part of defense. A Cavaliers squad with Love, Nance, and Thompson playing alongside James instantly goes from horrible to very good on the glass.

The big men aren’t the only ones looking for improved health. If Hood’s back heals and he’s able to find his niche on this team, he gives the Cavaliers another wing capable of getting his own shot. On a team that is lacking creators for the first time in four seasons, the need for the best version of Hood cannot be overstated. If he can return to being the player who averaged nearly 17 points per game while shooting 39% from three for the Utah Jazz earlier this season, Hood would be an adequate third option behind James and Love.

If Hood doesn’t step up, there’s still Kyle Korver. While Korver would ideally be the team’s fourth option, he’s still one of the greatest shooters of all time, and an underrated team defender. Even at 37, Korver is likely the Cavaliers’ best shooting guard, and his chemistry with James is reason enough to find them as many minutes together as possible. A starting lineup of George Hill, Korver, Love, James, and Nance would likely be an extremely effective offensive unit that would also be more than capable on the defensive end.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94BrmuzsSms

While the trades haven’t given the Cavaliers the boost many had been hoping for, they were still undoubtedly the right moves for the team. The Cavs got younger, more athletic, and at least somewhat more capable defensively. This is after adding Osman and Ante Zizic in the offseason, two rookies who look like they could both be long term NBA players. If they can find chemistry and a style on both sides of the floor by the playoffs, then this team may yet win their fourth consecutive Eastern Conference crown, albeit with a far different type of roster than they’ve had the last few seasons.

Cons

Of course, whether or not the Cavaliers can find that chemistry is a much larger question. Most playoff teams spend the entire season fine tuning their chemistry before the playoffs. They not only learn their offensive sets, but what to do and who they can trust when those sets break down. When the Cavaliers revamped their roster at the trade deadline, rightly or not, they gave themselves much less time than most teams to build chemistry. Now, injuries have delayed that process even longer. The Cavaliers will essentially have a dozen games and one month to find out who they are on the court. It’s practically unheard of for a team to do that and win a conference title, let alone an NBA championship.

Even if the team gets healthy, can they stay that way? Love has missed a significant chunk of the season each of the last two years, back issues like Hood’s can be chronic, as can hamstring problems like the one Nance is dealing with.  Thompson seems to have become injury prone (you almost have to wonder if he played his body into the ground during his franchise-record consecutive games played streak). The Cavaliers may just be an injury-prone group.

As much as reintegrating Love into the offense may have some bumps in the road, the larger issue is obviously the team’s defense. Despite a bit of improvement since the trade deadline, the Cavaliers still rank 28th out of 30 teams in defensive rating, just above the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns. No team ranked that poorly has ever made the NBA Finals, and the Cavs will face an uphill climb to be the first. They lack a high wing defender to pair with James, and no one outside of LeBron is much of a rim protector. Even George Hill, once one of the best defensive point guards in the league, is now about average on that end. It’s doubtful the Cavaliers’ defensive ranking will change much with so little time left in the season, but to make any real noise in the playoffs, they need to find a real defensive identity.

Obviously, a huge concern for the Cavaliers has been the disappointing play of JR Smith and Tristan Thompson. Thompson, once the iron man of the Cavaliers, has battled several leg injuries over the past year, and simply hasn’t been the same player. It isn’t so much his rebounding (only slightly down per 100 possessions), or his scoring (his shooting percentages are fairly close to his career averages, as are his points per 100 possession in season since James returned to the Cavaliers), but rather his defense. Thompson is averaging just 0.9 blocks per 100 possessions, the second lowest average of his career. More importantly, while he’s never been terrific at protecting the rim in terms of opponents shooting a poor percentage there, Thompson typically was able to do a good job of stopping opposing players from getting a high volume of shots in that area. This is no longer the case, an the main reason seems to be a decline in mobility on Thompson’s part. This decline has also had a negative effect on Thompson’s ability to defend the perimeter, something he used to be excellent at for a big man. While Thompson may be able to find something resembling his old form if and when he returns to full health, that is by no means a sure thing. If he can’t defend and rebound at a high level, Thompson’s lack of perimeter shooting and elite size at his position make it extremely difficult to play him at all. At this point, the best the Cavaliers can likely hope for this season is that Thompson can be a solid backup to Nance while destroying opposing benches on the glass. That’s a useful player, but not nearly the one he was two seasons ago.

As for Smith, the cause of his decline in play is harder to pinpoint. Last season, he was (rightly, in my opinion) given a free pass due to a contract holdout, injuries, and the premature birth of his daughter. This season, there haven’t been the same problems, but his play has been just as poor. Yes, Smith was affected by losing his starting job to Dwyane Wade at the beginning of the season, but that lasted for all of three games. There’s no reason it should still be affecting him. Additionally, while Smith did struggle in an overall sense last season, he typically regained his form a few weeks after returning from each setback, and was very good in the playoffs. This year, there’s no sign that the Cavaliers can count on Smith at all. Whether it’s simply the 32 year old nearing the end of his basketball career or something else we don’t know about, Smith simply isn’t the player he was, and that is a huge loss for the Cavaliers.

Smith’s decline in play is a large part of why the Cavaliers have weaknesses at the wing positions that one might not expect at first glance, but it’s hardly the only reason. Hood has been disappointing since he was acquired from the Jazz for Jae Crowder, struggling with his shot, and not playing the level of defense one would expect from a player with his physical gifts. Kyle Korver has been terrific, but at 37 years old, the Cavaliers are hesitant to either start or play him heavy minutes. Overall, Jeff Green has been better than expected, but his iffy shot selection and poor outside shooting have made him a questionable fit at times. Because of these factors, the Cavaliers still aren’t completely set on their starting shooting guard or their overall wing rotation.

As we head down the home stretch of this season, the Cleveland Cavaliers still have more questions about their team than they do answers. Their grasp on the Eastern Conference is more tenuous than it’s ever been, and no one can say for sure how the rest of the season will play out for this team. If they can find their stride, the Cavs may end up as Eastern Conference Champions for the fourth season in a row. If not, then it could be a long offseason for Cavalier fans everywhere.